Friday, June 8, 2018

Is Sea Level Science Above the Law?

March For Science
I have been exposing the current scientific pronouncement by some scientists that "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise" (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32).

That estimation ("the major cause") is one quantity that has been thrown around a lot, but some of the latest scientific papers have brought thermal expansion down to one-third with Cryosphere melt (2/3) as the major cause:
"Observations from the Jason series have revolutionized scientists' understanding of contemporary sea level rise and its causes. We know that today's sea level rise is about one-third the result of the warming of existing ocean water, with the remainder [two-thirds] coming from melting land ice."
(NASA, emphasis added; cf Thermal Expansion Causes About One-Third Of Global Sea Level Rise1). Even that 1/3 is an overestimate due to not knowing about "ghost water" (NASA Busts The Ghost).

When government scientists or administrators make a statement about science, they can be held accountable in court:
On March 9, 2017, Scott Pruitt, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”), appeared on the CNBC program “Squawk Box” and stated, regarding carbon dioxide created by human activity, that “I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see,” and “there’s a tremendous disagreement about of [sic] the impact” of “human activity on the climate.” ... Noting that these public statements by the EPA Administrator “stand in contrast to published research and conclusions of the EPA,” ... the plaintiff, Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (“PEER”), a “non-profit organization dedicated to research and public education concerning the activities and operation of [the] federal . . . government[],”... submitted a request to EPA, pursuant to the Freedom of Information Act (“FOIA”), 5 U.S.C. § 552, for agency records “relied upon by Administrator Pruitt in making these statements and any EPA documents that support the conclusions that human activity is not the largest factor driving global climate change,” ... EPA has performed no search for and produced no records in response to the plaintiff’s FOIA request. ... Nonetheless, on this record, EPA now seeks summary judgment, ... and the plaintiff has cross-moved for summary judgment, ... For the reasons set forth below, the plaintiff’s cross-motion is granted, and EPA’s motion is denied. [pp. 1-2]
...
EPA has failed to demonstrate a viable legal basis for its refusal to conduct any search whatsoever in response to the plaintiff’s straightforward FOIA request. When the head of an agency makes a public statement that appears to contradict “the published research and conclusions of” that agency, ... the FOIA provides a valuable tool for citizens to demand agency records providing any support, scientific or otherwise, for the pronouncement, and to oblige agencies to search for and produce any non-exempt responsive records. Compliance with such a request “would help ‘ensure an informed citizenry, vital to the functioning of a democratic society.’” [p. 18]
...
[ORDER:] EPA is directed: (1) by July 2, 2018, to conduct and complete the search for records responsive to both parts of the plaintiff’s amended FOIA request; (2) to disclose promptly to the plaintiff on a rolling basis any responsive, non-exempt records; and (3) by July 11, 2018, to produce to the plaintiff, an explanation for any documents withheld in full or in part. The parties shall, by July 31, 2018, file jointly a status report notifying the Court of any outstanding issues in dispute and, if necessary, propose a schedule to govern any further proceedings in this matter. [pp. 18-19]
(PEER vs Pruitt, PDF). That is a recent decision by the chief judge in a court in the District of Columbia.

Officials can also be held accountable for silencing (or trying to) the public when the public calls them out on public matters (Knight v Trump, PDF).

I think that it is time for scientists who are making assertions that "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise" to put up the science or shut up about it (The Pillars of Knowledge: Faith and Trust?).

Because, among other things, it has been pointed out that the origin of the hypothesis is an old model's tale  (e.g. On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 33).

Thursday, June 7, 2018

The World According To Measurements - 13

Fig. 1 U.S. East Coast (Zone 7307)
I. Graphs

Portions of the East Coast (specifically, areas within World Ocean Database (WOD) Zone 7307) on average have seen 1.7 feet of sea level rise.

The graph at Fig. 1 shows that specific ~518.16 millimeter (~1.7 feet) East Coast sea level rise in actual in situ tide gauge station measurements recorded in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database.

That Fig. 1 graph is generated from the recent 21 May 2018 dataset.

II. Photos

Photos of Washington DC, which is in a "tidal area" because it has ocean tides and is in Zone 7307, are shown in Fig. 2a - Fig. 2d.

The photo at Fig. 2e is from Miami, FL, and is added to show that the entire East Coast is in for the same future (Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise, PDF; Climate gentrification: from theory to empiricism in Miami-Dade County, Florida).

The U.S. Capital joins the World According To Measurements:

Fig. 2a D.C. (The swamp thickens)
Fig. 2b DC (The Anacosta Sewer Overflow)
Fig. 2c D.C. (Lobbyist swamp sewer critter fishing)
Fig. 2d DC (Swamp Spectators Swamped)
Fig. 2e Miami, FL

(photo source: ... Washington, District of Columbia ...).

III. Links To Tide Gauge Records

You can view individual tide gauge stations of WOD Zone 7307 in the following links:

PHILADELPHIA (PIER 9N) [stn. #135, yrs of data: 118]
REEDY POINT [stn. #786, yrs of data: 33]
ATLANTIC CITY [stn. #180, yrs of data: 104]
BALTIMORE [stn. #148, yrs of data: 116]
ANNAPOLIS (NAVAL ACADEMY) [stn. #311, yrs of data: 88]
CAPE MAY [stn. #1153, yrs of data: 49]
MATAPEAKE [stn. #1338, yrs of data: 10]
WASHINGTON DC [stn. #360, yrs of data: 87]
LEWES (BREAKWATER HARBOR) [stn. #224, yrs of data: 79]
INDIAN RIVER INLET [stn. #1337, yrs of data: 11]
CAMBRIDGE [stn. #481, yrs of data: 10]
CAMBRIDGE II [stn. #1295, yrs of data: 47]
OCEAN CITY INLET [stn. #2292, yrs of data: 19]
SOLOMON'S ISLAND (BIOL. LAB.) [stn. #412, yrs of data: 81]
PINEY POINT [stn. #971, yrs of data: 13]
RICHMOND [stn. #462, yrs of data: 27]
GLOUCESTER POINT [stn. #597, yrs of data: 53]
KIPTOPEKE BEACH [stn. #636, yrs of data: 67]
CHESAPEAKE BAY BR. TUN. [stn. #1635, yrs of data: 33]
SEWELLS POINT [stn. #299, yrs of data: 91]
VIRGINIA BEACH [stn. #945, yrs of data: 12]
PORTSMOUTH (NORFOLK NAVY YARD) [stn. #399, yrs of data: 53]
DUCK PIER OUTSIDE [stn. #1636, yrs of data: 33]
CAPE HATTERAS [stn. #2294, yrs of data: 26]
BEAUFORT [stn. #2295, yrs of data: 45]
MOREHEAD CITY [stn. #719, yrs of data: 10]
WILMINGTON [stn. #396, yrs of data: 83]
SOUTHPORT [stn. #1431, yrs of data: 13]
MYRTLE BEACH [stn. #862, yrs of data: 16]
SPRINGMAID PIER [stn. #1444, yrs of data: 35]
CHARLESTON I [stn. #234, yrs of data: 97]

IV. Conclusion

Just for grins I added two graphs (Fig. 3a - Fig. 3b) to show that the major cause of this sea level rise is not thermal expansion of the oceans.

The major cause of sea level rise is ice sheets and land glaciers melting:
"The vast Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica, plays a starring role in the future of climate change. The global oceans together absorb over 90 percent of the excess heat in the climate system and roughly three-quarters of that heat uptake occurs in the Southern Ocean. In addition, the global oceans absorb around 25 percent of
Fig. 3a Thermal Expansion Factor
Fig. 3b Cryosphere Melting Factor
anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and the Southern Ocean alone accounts for about half of the uptake of CO2.


Despite its critical role in our climate system, the Southern Ocean has gone almost completely unobserved. Scientists have struggled to gather precise measurements because of the harsh environment and extreme remoteness. The changing dynamics of the Southern Ocean will in turn drive key aspects of our future climate, including how sensitive the Earth will be to further warming and increases in carbon dioxide emissions. As a result, improved observations are crucial to helping scientists understand and predict how our climate will change."
...
"Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is so remote that only 28 human beings have ever set foot on it.

Knut Christianson, a 33-year-old glaciologist at the University of Washington, has been there twice.

A few years ago, Christianson and a team of seven scientists traveled more than 1,000 miles from McMurdo Station, the main research base in Antarctica, to spend six weeks on Thwaites ...

They were mapping a future global disaster. As the world warms, determining exactly how quickly ice melts and seas rise may be one of the most important questions of our time ... If there is going to be a climate catastrophe ... it's probably going to start at Thwaites. The trouble with Thwaites, which is one of the largest glaciers on the planet, is that ...  instead of melting slowly like an ice cube on a summer day, it is more like a house of cards: It's stable until it is pushed too far, then it collapses... Seas will rise about 10 feet in many parts of the world; in New York and Boston, because of the way gravity pushes water around the planet, the waters will rise even higher, as much as 13 feet ... West Antarctica could do to the coastlines of the world what Hurricane Sandy did in a few hours to New York City," explains Richard Alley ... Except when the water comes in, it doesn't go away in a few hours – it stays."
(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 6). When the 1.7 feet increases to the point it begins to shut down critical infrastructure, the swamp of deniers will have been the cause instead of being part of the solution:
"Though year‐to‐year and regional variability exist, the underlying trend is quite clear," the report says. "Due to sea level rise, the national average frequency of high tide flooding is double what it was 30 years ago."

The report measured data from tidal gauges at 98 locations along the nation's coasts to see how often water levels rose above a point that typically inundates roads, infiltrates stormwater systems or otherwise disrupts daily life.
(U.S. Coastal Flooding Breaks Records as Sea Level Rises, NOAA Report Shows). Looks like disgorgement may become a house-hold word in the near future (Oilfluenza, Affluenza, and Disgorgement, 2, 3).

The previous post in this series is here.

Monday, June 4, 2018

Follow The Immunity - 6

"The citizens have good taste"
I. The Lead-up

In this series we are discussing various facets of the concept of official immunity (Follow The Immunity, 2, 3, 4, 5).

The notion of official immunity was at first only embryonic in ancient times, but when it became well fed it grew up to destroy 26 civilizations:
"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority."
(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). In our time the statement that gives meaning to the concept is "the king can do no wrong" (Follow The Immunity - 3).

The basic "DNA" or essence of this process is for immune leaders to cultivate nationalism and militarism until it sickens a minority portion of the populace (Etiology of Social Dementia, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18).

That minority (Al-Qaeda (/ælˈkaɪdə, ˌælkɑːˈiːdə/; Arabic: القاعدة‎ al-qāʿidah, IPA: [ælqɑːʕɪdɐ], translation: "The Base" - Wikipedia) is brought forth by an authoritarian source which renders that despotic minority into authoritarian followers.

In the nomenclature of psychology they are called "sychophants" (Beware of the Sycophant Epidemic - 2).

The sickening of the base continues until they become a despotic minority (the majority be damned).

Have you noticed The Don appealing to "the base" who voted him in?

II. Here And Now

The feasting on the minds of that despotic minority, the base, over the weekend contained statements from The Don that he absolutely could pardon himself of any crime (President Trump Tweets That He Has the 'Absolute Right' to Pardon Himself).

His chief T.V. sychophant clearly implied that The Don could even assassinate an FBI director without being indicted, because The Don is now the president:
"President Trump’s lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani reportedly said Sunday that Trump could shoot former FBI director James B. Comey in the Oval Office and still not be indicted for it while still serving as president.

The HuffPost reported that Giuliani, a former federal prosecutor, made the assertion on a day when he conducted a series of interviews in which he discussed the expansive powers granted to the president in the Constitution.

'In no case can he be subpoenaed or indicted,' Giuliani said, according to the HuffPost. 'I don’t know how you can indict while he’s in office. No matter what it is.'

Giuliani said that impeachment would be the remedy for a president’s illegal behavior, offering as an example the hypothetical case of Trump shooting Comey rather than firing him, the HuffPost reported."
(Giuliani: Trump could shoot Comey, emphasis added). Evidently, The Don knows the nature of the sychophants he is feasting on.

He once bragged that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and his despotic minority, his base, would still loyally follow him (Trump Declaration).

III. Conclusion

It would seem that the Dredd Blog series that might have at first seemed cartoon-ish really wasn't and isn't (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13).

It all comes down to choices (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Theme song of the despotic minority ...



Sunday, June 3, 2018

The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 5

Fig. 1 Hemispheric
Fig. 2 Golden 23
I. SLR vs. SLC

The PSMSL folks updated their dataset on May 21.

I have been busy on the thermal expansion & contraction realm, so I just now updated my PSMSL SQL server.

The graphs at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2
were generated with the additional data from PSMSL which deals with sea level records made by tide gauge stations around the world.

The graph at Fig. 2 is the pattern of a tide gauge station group originally called "the Golden 23" (Golden 23 Zones Meet TEOS-10).

The graph at Fig. 1 features the Golden 23 compared with tide gauges in the Northern Hemisphere and tide gauge stations in the Southern Hemisphere.

As you can see, the golden 23 shows a higher sea level rise than the other two do.

Today I want to explain the main difference between sea level change recorded by the Golden 23 as compared to the two hemispheres.

II. There Is This Thingy Called Sea Level Fall

There is a disservice involved with the reason for the difference.

Basically, we who know both up and down call that the bathtub model problem (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2, 3, 4).

The golden 23 stations do not utilize tide gauge stations from areas with high sea level fall (Proof of Concept, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

The main focus of the golden 23 is on sea level rise, and it gives a better "heads-up" than the bathtub model does.

One main reason is that when the sea level in areas around ice sheets at the poles fall, it means that the water that was there has now been relocated (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4; The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

Unfortunately it is relocated by various dynamics of the Earth's rotation to the more populated areas of the planet (The King of King Tides Approaches - 2).

III. The High And Low Of It

To explain it more quickly, several  high and several low areas of sea level change are presented below, with links to the PSMSL tide gauge stations so you can check them out.


High sea level rise:
rlrMM = 8216.25 (1216.25mm; 3.99032 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 1002

rlrMM = 8125.62 (1125.62mm; 3.69298 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 1593

rlrMM = 8060 (1060mm; 3.47769 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 2126

rlrMM = 8039.92 (1039.92mm; 3.41181 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 1345

rlrMM = 7986.5 (986.5mm; 3.23655 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 1364

rlrMM = 7892.71 (892.71mm; 2.92884 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 2209

rlrMM = 7608.58 (608.58mm; 1.99665 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 145

rlrMM = 7603.67 (603.67mm; 1.98054 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 808
Significant sea level fall:
rlrMM = 6363.38 (636.62mm; 2.08865 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 1343

rlrMM = 6325.92 (674.08mm; 2.21155 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 1061

rlrMM = 6320.33 (679.67mm; 2.22989 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 126

rlrMM = 6300 (700mm; 2.29659 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 118

rlrMM = 6262.33 (737.67mm; 2.42018 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 405

rlrMM = 6221.78 (778.22mm; 2.55322 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 1354

rlrMM = 6189.04 (810.96mm; 2.66063 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 495

rlrMM = 6115.42 (884.58mm; 2.90217 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 144

rlrMM = 5954.5 (1045.5mm; 3.43012 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 137

rlrMM = 7634.25 (634.25mm; 2.08087 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 122

rlrMM = 5903.67 (1096.33mm; 3.59688 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 1858

rlrMM = 7591.33 (591.33mm; 1.94006 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 99


IV. Conclusion

The news is impacting property prices (the buck stops at the shore line)  in already impacted areas (Sea level rise is pushing coastal property owners to move to higher ground).

Local governments are suing Oil-Qaeda in courts on both coasts (Oilfluenza, Affluenza, and Disgorgement, 2, 3).

Populated areas need to know specific sea level changes that will take place in their specific geographical area, such as latitude & longitude, because it is not the same everywhere:
"A rise of only 1.6 feet ... puts 150 million people globally and $35 trillion assets at risk in 20 of the world’s most vulnerable and fastest growing port cities ... In the United States, of the 25 most densely populated and rapidly growing U.S. counties, 23 are along a coast. Low-lying coastal areas are particularly susceptible to storm surge and flooding from torrential precipitation, and the effects on communities can be catastrophic."
(Resilience of Infrastructure Systems to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Areas: Impacts, Adaptation Measures, and Implementation Challenges). They can't competently prepare for what is going to "generically happen on average" to everyone every where.

As the high lows in Section III above show, the difference in sea level change can be phenomenal.

Engineers must know precisely what to try to adapt to.

The previous post in this series is here.