Thursday, May 23, 2019

How To Enjoy The End Of Bad Choices

Which to choose?
The video at the end of this post proposes, perhaps with some intellectual gallows humor, one way to enjoy what the speaker calls "the end of the world".

At the same time that speaker's video presentation shows people with posters saying things like "the end of the world is near."

Those posters, however, were presented a long time ago and the world did not end in a time frame that viewers are likely to consider "near".

What the posters and the speaker should be urging, if they want the support of documented history and herstory, is "The End of Civilization is Near."

That "end" is an ongoing reality.

A reality that history and herstory keeps repeating in Groundhog Day fashion (Groundhog Day & The Climate of Fear).

That version is well documented:
But always TCS [the creep state] is primarily the population segment diagnosed as a despotic minority which the once most-often-quoted historian, Toynbee, fingered as one of the members of the trinity of extinction that he found in all civilizations that were about to become very successful at becoming extinct:
That something is the dementia that produces and ends up in suicide:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."
(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). There is no cure for the final symptom of that group dementia, there is only prevention by way of avoiding it altogether in the first place.

The components of that group dementia were pointed out in an encyclopedia piece concerning that historian quoted above:
"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. Unlike Spengler in his The Decline of the West, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable, for it may or may not continue to respond to successive challenges. Unlike Karl Marx, he saw history as shaped by spiritual, not economic forces" ...
(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). The show stopper, in terms of remedy, in this type of group dementia is that it is a contagious dementia.
(Etiology of Social Dementia - 18). That particular "minority" is not a racial or ethnic minority, rather, it is primarily composed of a destructive suicidal trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
(Arrested Development: The Creep State). The long and the short of it is that cultures devolve over and over again because bad choices exceed good choices.

We see from time to time those who say that because someone miscalculated an event (e.g. a peak oil date) that it means they are forever wrong about everything.

Typically they then conclude that the event that was miscalculated will NEVER happen.

Let’s say the event date predicted was 100 years off, but then it did happen on a later date.

The person who miscalculated was off about 100 years but the denier was off by forever minus 100 years.

Who is to be chided the most in such a case?

The Tenets of Ecocosmology, The Machine Religion, or the video below may not answer the question in a manner we would choose.



Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Sea Water DNA Detection Using Conservative Temperature - 2

Color Scheme on Graph Lines
Today's post is a follow-up to yesterday's post (Sea Water DNA Detection Using Conservative Temperature).

That post used graphs to display the mean average Conservative Temperature (CT) on a World Ocean Database (WOD) layer by layer basis.

The mean average was derived as an average of the sea water temperatures at 33 depth levels.

Those levels are described in the WOD Manual at Appendix 11 (WOD 2013 User's Manual, PDF).

The main reason I use that depth level schedule is that the appendix also contains high and low ranges for temperature and salinity so I can determine if a particular measurement is within the normal bounds presented in that table.
Layer 0
Layer 1
Layer 2
Layer 3
Layer 4
Layer 5
Layer 6
Layer 7
Layer 8 (has Hadopelagic)
Layer 9  (has Hadopelagic)
Layer 10
Layer 11
Layer 12
Layer 13
Layer 14 (has Hadopelagic)
Layer 15
Layer 16

Today I present the CT DNA at the five pelagic levels (Pelagic Biome).

These five levels are constructed from the CT calculated using the 33 depth level in situ measurements I mentioned above.

Then, once the CT is calculated the 33 depth level values are merged into 5 pelagic depth levels which are mean averages condensed from those 33 WOD depth levels.

CT DNA is determined by the TEOS-10 CT value algorithm, along with the CT stream's high and low ranges (three graph lines per depth level).

Those ranges are then filled-in with black pixels to help visualize the range as well as the trend of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and Ocean Heat Flux (OHF).

The individual line colors are depicted in the "Color Scheme on Graph Lines" at the top-left graphic in this post.

If you look closely at the graphs you will see that the OHC and OHF lines cross over one another at times in several WOD Layers.

Additionally, you may notice that at times deeper depth OHC and OHF become warmer than, and/or mix with, upper levels (and vice versa).

This mixing and variation makes it difficult to maintain the argument that ocean depths levels are places where temperatures, and therefore OHC and OHF, are always at a constant range.

The OHC or OHF trail can become quickly lost if one uses a model that calculates OHC and/or OHF using the outmoded "Potential Temperature" instead of using the modern official "Conservative Temperature" as a calculation sonar (e.g. Potential Enthalpy: A Conservative Oceanic Variable for Evaluating Heat Content and Heat Fluxes, McDougal 2003, pp. 945-46).

The graphs show that even when there is a major mixing event the CT comes out on the other side and proceeds intact.

The proportion graphs in previous posts also show how absolute proportion between CT, potential enthalpy (heat content, hO), moles per kg, and photons per mole is maintained at all depth levels during changes or mixing (Patterns: Conservative Temperature & Potential Enthalpy, 2, 3).

The point of all this is to be able to recognize that we can only follow the OHC if we have and use proper methods.

Think of a submarine without a working sonar ... it is a fish out of water.

With CT we can follow the OHC and the OHF all the way to the face of tidewater glaciers where the infrared photons are radiated away from atoms inside tidewater molecules and into the atoms of glacial ice molecules (Atoms & Light Energy, Photon Creation & Destruction).

It is merely the laws of thermodynamics operating at all depths of the oceans that allows photon transport over short distances at long (infrared) wavelengths (long distances in short-wavelength cases).

When the photons radiate away from the atoms of sea water molecules at one location into atoms of other sea water molecules at another location, the temperature and energy level changes at both places.

So, proper analytical tools must be able to follow them even when tidewater glacier ice is the other location.

When ice melts and becomes sea water the trail can be lost unless the analysis can still follow the trail (The Ghost Plumes, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

Which means yet another temperature change, but that does not at all mean the "heat" is gone.

That OHC is in two or more places now, still adding up to what it was before the OHF of thermodynamics made spontaneous changes.

This is happening all over the globe in the ocean depths at this very moment I am writing this and also at the moment you are reading it.

It is important to remember that a decrease in OHC via photon radiation at location "A" means an increase in OHC at location "B" where those photons are re-absorbed.

It is also important to remember that the overall amount of energy is still the same when the temperatures at both locations change as a result of photon transfer, a.k.a. OHF.

So, when we look at graphs that show CT decreasing the thing not to do is to say stupid things like "the oceans are cooling so global warming is a hoax."

The thing to do is to use proper analytical tools to find out, by in situ measurements used to generate CT values, where the temperature rose, which means where the photons that radiated were re-absorbed.

Sometimes that location "B" is down deeper in the ocean than we think we need to measure, which means that the OHC can be improperly accounted for.

All sea water thermodynamics, whether temperature decreasing OHF or temperature increasing OHF are dynamics that obey the laws of thermodynamics.

The graph lines' ups and downs, their blending, and their mixing, over all the many years the graphs depict, is not the water moving, it is the photons in the water that are moving.

In this context, in situ temperature and OHF changes are indicators of the sea water's infra-red photon realm spontaneously moving to a cooler sea water molecule below, beside, or above it.

The ocean is a place with trillions upon trillions of nomad photons constantly traveling on OHF wavelengths in order to bring about OHC equilibrium.

And it is a never ending job because a new generation of infra-red photons enter the ocean every second, every hour, and every day (The Ghost Photons, 2, 3).

And the higher energy photons of visible light do the same at shallow depths, to then eventually become infra-red photons as they travel to deeper, cooler water.

Photons can radiate into and out of any molecule, be it a molecule of a gas, a liquid, or a solid.

So, tracing their path up, down, and around the oceans has been interesting (The long story of constraining ocean heat content).

It's like we all going to live in a yellow submarine without adequate sonar unless and until we master the CT DNA realm and use the TEOS-10 standard algorithms.

Monitoring OHF requires measurements at all depths, not just near the surface as we have, for the most part, been doing.

In closing, remember that CT is derived using, among other values, Absolute Salinity (SA) as one of the calculation parameters:

            double Z = gsw_z_from_p(height, latitude);
            double P = gsw_p_from_z(Z, latitude);
            double SA = gsw_sa_from_sp(practical salinity, P, longitude, latitude);

            double CT = gsw_ct_from_t(SA, in situ temperature, P);

And remember that our detection system needs to be very refined, because only 1.14% of the Cryosphere needs to melt and/or calve in order to bring us disaster (The 1.14% vs. The 100%, The 1.14% 1% vs. The 100% - 3).

The previous post in this series is here.



Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Sea Water DNA Detection Using Conservative Temperature

Fig. 1 World Ocean Database (WOD) Layers
I. About

Today, I am following up on the essence of a previous Dredd Blog Post series concerning the "fingerprints" and "DNA" of sea level change (SLC).

The sea level fingerprint analogy is not primarily focused on the attributes of sea water itself.

So, the focus in this series is on the definitive natural attributes (dna) rather than the "fingerprints" because "fingerprints" only applies to sea levels, not primarily to sea water's definitive natural attributes.

I am binding the "DNA" concept with the TEOS/Gibbs robust concept of  Conservative Temperature (CT) as it is found in the eighteen layers of the World Ocean Database (WOD) scheme of global "zones" (Fig. 1).

II. Why Conservative Temperature?

Fig. 2 Conservative Temperature
is in thermodynamic proportion to
Ocean Heat Content (hO)
The reason for using CT as a guide is that it is an indicator of the DNA of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) in the sense that it is in thermodynamic proportion to Potential Enthalpy (hO).

Potential Enthalpy is an indicator of thermodynamic attributes in sea water, such as OHC (Patterns: Conservative Temperature & Potential Enthalpy, 2, 3).

OHC currently is a hot topic with both Oceanographers and Climate Scientists.

WOD Layer 0
WOD Layer 1
WOD Layer 2
WOD Layer 3
WOD Layer 4
WOD Layer 5
WOD Layer 6
WOD Layer 7
WOD Layer 8
WOD Layer 9
WOD Layer 10
WOD Layer 11
WOD Layer 12
WOD Layer 13
WOD Layer 14
WOD Layer 15
WOD Layer 16
Since CT patterns (unlike "Potential Temperature" ... the old and problematic variable),  match OHC patterns, the graphs today show not only the pattern of CT but also the pattern of OHC and ocean heat flux (OHF).

In other words these graphs of CT have the DNA pattern of the heat intake and distribution of atmospheric heat entering the ocean layers of the globe (Fig. 1).

But a caveat to remember is that these graphs are offspring of the world according to measurements (The World According To Measurements, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21).

Our science in general is only as robust as our in situ measurements and our bona fide observations.

These graphs are the result of processing billions of in situ measurements, then processing them with the TEOS-10 toolbox, which is a product of one of the more robust American scientists:
Some may wonder why it [the TEOS-10 toolkit] is called the "Gibbs-SeaWater (GSW) Oceanographic Toolbox", so, let me explain.

The formulas encapsulated in the TEOS-10 software come originally from the mind of an American scientist:
"Willard Gibbs was a mathematical physicist who made enormous contributions to science: he founded modern statistical mechanics, he founded chemical thermodynamics, and he invented vector analysis."
(J. Willard Gibbs). The Europeans also speak well of him:
"J. Willard Gibbs, in full Josiah Willard Gibbs, (born February 11, 1839, New Haven, Connecticut, U.S.—died April 28, 1903, New Haven), theoretical physicist and chemist who was one of the greatest scientists in the United States in the 19th century. His application of thermodynamic theory converted a large part of physical chemistry from an empirical into a deductive science."
(Encyclopedia Brittanica, emphasis added). Thus, the scientific work that Gibbs did is encapsulated in the software that Dredd Blog uses to analyze ocean water thermodynamics.

The better the scientific tools the better the science.
(The World According To Measurements - 12). That said, notice that the graphs go back over a century, about 119 years to be more exact, to a time when collecting temperature, salinity, and depth measurements was not as robust as it currently is.

But by and large, the practices were adequate enough to determine ocean temperature, depth, latitude, longitude, and conductivity (salinity) to a reasonable degree.

Some modern techniques (XBT anyone?) for example had some problematic episodes (I don't use XBT data).

The WOD data can be selected in a way that results in a database that is all we need in order to use the most robust thermodynamic algorithms available, which is the Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010 (TEOS-10).

III. The Components
And
The Enhancements 

The raw components of the CT DNA are three simple lines composed of the CT line, the high CT path, and the low CT path (see the graphs labeled "WOD Layer 0" - "WOD Layer 16").

Those components are enhanced by a blue fill-in that glues the visual concept together so as to enhance the picture of the span and scope of the thermodynamic flux taking place (see the graphs further down in this post labeled "CT DNA Layer 0" - "CT DNA Layer 16").

This exercise is meant to facilitate the visualization of the fundamental dynamics of ocean heat content and ocean heat flux over a robust span of time in any selected location.

The "WOD Zone" is the fundamental granularity (Fig. 1).

After all, that is how in situ measurements have been stored in the World Ocean Database since before most of us were even born.

I think that the WOD storage methodology is a cool way of handling massive amounts of measurements.

IV. Robust Granularity

The WOD documentation (see introduction and user's manual) details a thirty-three depth-level configuration.

That is considerably more granularity than the five levels of the pelagic biome that can still be useful.

The WOD granularity is important because TEOS calculations can be made using "slices" of the ocean while calculating CT and other TEOS values.

It is better to calculate using in situ measurements from thirty-three depth level slices, then combine them AFTER CT has been established for each slice.

The remaining five pelagic composites made from the thirty-three WOD slices are useful for determining "where to dig" for further gold.

As regular readers know, I have done that in various and sundry ways using the WOD data in various and sundry WOD Zones; thereby I have discovered that the laws of thermodynamics are alive and well in the ocean deeps.

V. Laws of Thermodynamics

CT DNA Layer 0
CT DNA Layer 1
CT DNA Layer 2
CT DNA Layer 3
CT DNA Layer 4
CT DNA Layer 5
CT DNA Layer 6
CT DNA Layer 7
CT DNA Layer 8
CT DNA Layer 9
CT DNA Layer 10
CT DNA Layer 11
CT DNA Layer 12
CT DNA Layer 13
CT DNA Layer 14
CT DNA Layer 15
CT DNA Layer 16
That is, OHC flows to chillier or colder regions, which means that the infra-red ghost photons which compose the moles of energy represented by potential enthalpy (hO) in kilograms of sea water are on the move in the form of Ocean Heat Flux (OHF).

I rambled on about that issue in a series or two (The Ghost Plumes, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7The Ghost Photons, 2, 3).

It is interesting that at the mole granularity level or at the photon granularity level, the pattern in graphs is the same as the CT DNA level (In Search Of Ocean Heat, 2, 3, 4, 5).

The simple reality is that CT can be used to get the OHC and OHF picture.

Folks, I think "we got game" in the TEOS-10 toolbox and that we owe a depth of gratitude to Gibbs and those who have deciphered his formulas into useful algorithms in the extremely useful TEOS-10 toolbox (e.g. Potential Enthalpy: A Conservative Oceanic Variable for Evaluating Heat Content and Heat Fluxes, McDougal 2003, pp. 945-46; cf. TEOS-10 gsw_CT_from_pt).

VI. Upcoming Visual
Granularity

As I wrote above, the graphs today combine all in situ measurements from 33 depth levels into one mean average graph for each of 17 WOD layers (0-16, 17 is all land no water).

As a result these graphs show OHC and OHF latitude band by latitude band.

The "weakness" is that they don't show independent pictures of the differences at multiple depths.

It is as if the ocean has only one depth.

In the past I have done graphs that do show individual depths:

LayersAppendix
0, 1, 2, 15, & 16 A-One
3, 4, & 5 A-Two
6, 7, & 8 A-Three
9, 10, & 11 A-Four
12, 13, & 14 A-Five

However, those graphs show only the usual one graph-line per depth-level.

So, in the next post of this series will do the CT DNA version of those graphs at the five pelagic depths.

VII. Closing Comments

The exercise when one is in search of ocean heat is to find out where it comes from, how it travels through the sea water, and where it is going.

This requires a source of data (World Ocean Database Profiles the Ocean).

An article in a climate change oriented publication put it this way:

"Scientists predicted in the 1980s that a key fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change would be found in the ocean. If they were correct that increases in greenhouse gases were changing how much heat was coming into the system, then the component with the biggest heat capacity, the oceans, is where most of that heat would end up."

"We have now had almost two decades of attempts to characterize this change, but the path to confirming those predictions has been anything but smooth …" (The long story of constraining ocean heat content).

Some of the rough going has been because of instrument failure (XBT Corrections).

Some of the rough has been the result of using "Potential Temperature" instead of "Conservative Temperature" as a variable in computer models according to scientific teams:

"The quest in this work is to derive a variable that is conservative, independent of adiabatic changes in pressure, and whose conservation equation is the oceanic version of the first law of thermodynamics. That is, we seek a variable whose advection and diffusion can be interpreted as the advection and diffusion of 'heat.' In other words, we seek to answer the question, 'what is heat' in the ocean? The variable that is currently used for this purpose in ocean models is potential temperature referenced to the sea surface, θ, but it does not accurately represent the conservation of heat because of (i) the variation of specific heat with salinity and (ii) the dependence of the total differential of enthalpy on variations of salinity."
(McDougal 2003, emphasis added).

I had a conversation some time back with a software programmer who works on computer models.

I asked whether or not that team used the TEOS-10 toolbox or were going to.

The answer was "slowly" so I translated that as "not yet."

The current standard for oceanography in terms of the thermodynamics of sea water is TEOS-10:

"This site is the official source of information about the Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010 (TEOS-10), and the way in which it should be used."

"TEOS-10 is based on a Gibbs function formulation from which all thermodynamic properties of seawater (density, enthalpy, entropy sound speed, etc.) can be derived in a thermodynamically consistent manner. TEOS-10 was adopted by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission at its 25th Assembly in June 2009 to replace EOS-80 as the official description of seawater and ice properties in marine science
" (Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010).

I dare say that we are beyond the time to use that scientific standard.

It is a way to remove rough going and replace it with smoother sailing.

The next post in this series is here.