Friday, August 17, 2018

Build Your Own Sea Level Change Fingerprinting System - 3

Fig. 1 Ice Sheet Fingerprints
In this series we are analyzing "fingerprints" that identify the sources of sea level change.

In today's post let's take a look at WOD Zone 1110 and WOD Zone 1112, orienting ourselves by noting that Zone 1110 contains all or part of Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia, while Zone 1112 contains the Philippines.

For data quality purposes, as we did in the previous posts, we first note any aberrations in the data before and after correction (Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b).

On with the show.
Fig. 2 WOD Zones

On the graphic showing the sea level change impacts of Greenland and Antarctica (Fig. 1), the two zones are located in the upper right square.

The two zones are pointed to by two arrows at the lower left corner of that upper right square on each graphic (left side = Greenland; right side = Antarctica) on Fig. 1.

The Fig. 1 color graphic which originated in the paper, which I have mentioned previously in this series  (Tamisiea, M.E., and J.X. Mitrovica. 2011, Oceanography PDF), indicates that Greenland has the larger impact on Zone 1112 because as concerns Greenland impact (left hand side of Fig. 1) the Philippines are in a brown zone, which indicates the second highest sea level rise impact area.

On the other hand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are in Zone 1110, which is located in the yellow colored area on both the Greenland and Antarctica impact graphic maps, indicating a more even handed sea level change impact from the ice sheets.

Fig. 3a Zone 1110
Fig. 3b Zone 1110 Aberrant data
Thus, the fingerprint pattern in Zone 1110 (Fig. 3a) and Zone 1112 (Fig. 4) dovetail with that concept as displayed in Fig. 1.

That is because the Zone 1110 pattern or fingerprint (Fig. 3a) shows Greenland and Antarctica swapping places (higher, lower) from time to time.

In some years Greenland will have the most sea level change impact, but in other years Antarctica will.

In recent years it ends with them close to equal in terms of impact.

On the other hand Zone 1112 (Fig. 4) being in the second highest Greenland impact area (brown color, left side of Fig. 1) is impacted more by Greenland.

In recent years the Zone 1112 fingerprint pattern also shows more of a separation between Greenland influence and Antarctica influence, with Greenland winning out.

Fig. 4
I expect that to change as Antarctica contributes more and more to the equation due to its enormous size (Antarctica 2.0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 [& supplements A, B, C, D, E, F]).

We have now covered six of the ten zones featured in this series.

This might be a good time to review the video of Professor Mitrovica concerning the relocation and distribution patterns of ice sheet melt water around the globe (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

The previous post in this series is here.

Dr. Mitrovica video:

08:00 The use of global mean average has led us astray for 100 years.
15:20 Taking the average assumes the imaginary bathtub model.
16:30 It is completely wrong.
21:00 100m of SLF @ Greenland's coast when all ice sheet is gone.
26:40 The Dutch government did not understand the scenario.
28:40 When the ice sheet melts, all the water is distributed in 2 weeks.
29:30 It is error to say that SLF is due only to the land rising.

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories - 4

John Brennan, former CIA Director, calls President Trump's denials of any campaign conspiracy "Hogwash" (‘Hogwash’: John Brennan torches Trump).

Does that impact the ongoing trial in Virgina?

The record supports Brennan's assertion because Rick Gates, the lieutenant to Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, pleaded guilty to "Conspiracy Against The United States" (VOX, Chicago Tribune, Guardian).

The statute Gates pleaded guilty to reads:
If two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States, or to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.
(18 U.S. Code § 371, emphasis added). It would seem, then, that since all the charges in Virginia were dropped against Gates, the conspiracy charges cannot be brought against Manafort alone.

Does the Virginia jury begin deliberating today in order to render a verdict on the conspiracy counts, or have the conspiracy charges (against Manafort) already been dropped?

Or do they deliberate only on the multiple other counts (non-conspiracy) against Manafort?

Perhaps we must wait for the next Manafort trial, in the District of Columbia (where Gates pleaded guilty) for a conspiracy conviction against Manafort:
"Gates pleaded guilty last week to separate charges, filed against him in Washington DC, that he conspired against the US and lied to investigators over the course of their inquiry.

The Virginia charges were dropped against him as part of a plea agreement in which Gates is being shown leniency by prosecutors in exchange for his full cooperation."
(Guardian, emphasis added). If Manafort is the only one found guilty of conspiracy in the Virginia case, since the relevant statute requires "two or more" conspirators, it would seem that he may have a shot at having the conspiracy counts dismissed (if they haven't been dropped already).

That would mean that the District of Columbia case is the only place where the conspiracy charges can be coherently prosecuted against "two or more" (both Gates and Manafort).

The conspiracy charges in Virginia against Manafort have evidently not been dropped according to some reports.

Here are the relevant charges:
"Subscribing to false income tax returns

Number of counts: 5
Maximum prison sentence per count: 3 years
Failing to file foreign bank account reports

Number of counts: 4
Maximum prison sentence per count: 5 years
Bank fraud and bank fraud conspiracy

Number of counts: 4 counts of bank fraud;
5 counts of bank fraud conspiracy
Maximum prison sentence per count: 30 years"
(CNBC, emphasis added). How can those 5 conspiracy charges hold when only one person is being tried and the statute reads "each shall be fined under this title or imprisoned" (In the Virginia case Gates got no fine and no jail time ... no convictions ... all charges dropped) ?

The final shoe to drop will be the potential pardon or pardons.

Would Trump only pardon Manafort, for example in order to punish Gates for "snitching?"

We shall see.

The previous post in this series is here.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Build Your Own Sea Level Change Fingerprinting System - 2

Fig. 1 Origin of Graphic (PDF)
Today let's analyze WOD Zone 7307 and WOD Zone 7407.

And let's do that analysis in the same manner that we analyzed WOD Zone 1313 and WOD Zone 1314 in the previous post of this series (Build Your Own Sea Level Change Fingerprinting System).

We will use the graphic at Fig. 1 in the same manner that we did in the previous post (ibid).

Interestingly, the context is practically the same in the sense that there is a large red area which indicates a comparatively high sea level rise impact from West Antarctica, as there was in the previous post (ibid).

Fig. 2
Also interesting is that the ice sheet impact reverses, that is, West Antarctica is the main impactor in the zones analyzed in this post, whereas Greenland was the main impactor in the previous post (ibid).

One thing that makes it even more interesting is that WOD Zone 7307 and WOD Zone 7407 are closer to Greenland than the zones in the previous post were (especially Zone 7407).

Fig. 3a
Fig. 3b
Moving along, remember as was stated in the previous post, that the first step in the process is to weed out obviously bad data.

The graphs at Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b show that there was an aberration in the data of one of these two zones, as there was in the previous post, which we must correct first before we proceed.

The problem in Zone 7407 was corrected by removing the latest year (yr 2017) which had incorrect or incomplete tide gauge data.

So, on to the graphs.

The pattern in Zone 7307 (Fig. 2) is more uniform and proportional than Zone 7407 (Fig. 3a) to the south of it because the high and low value lines follow an almost synchronous upward trend pattern.

I attribute that to consistent, evenly matched Greenland and West Antarctica impact, with West Antarctica producing the high sea level effect (black line), and Greenland mitigating it fairly evenly as shown by the low sea level effect (red line).

If you notice the left side of Fig. 1, which pertains to Greenland, some of the sea level fall reaches near or even into Zone 7407, which can be attributed to the uneven impact shown by the low value line (red line) on the graph at Fig. 3a (the two lines move away from one another rather than following an even pattern like Zone 7307 lines do).

Nevertheless, the Zone 7407 high value line (black line)  continues upward as does the Zone 7307 black line, which can be attributed to West Antarctica impact on both of them.

That is because both zones are in the high impact sea level rise red zone shown on the right side of the Fig. 1 graphic.

The uneven decrease in the red line in Zone 7407, in contrast to the increase in the black line, is because Zone 7407 is closer to Greenland than Zone 7304 is.

Therefore Zone 7407 is more subject to impacts of sea level fall influences as Greenland loses its gravitational influence that pulls seawater towards it.

To the contrary, the consistent pattern in the red and black lines in Zone 7307 is due to its being further from Greenland, so the pattern has more of the likeness of the predominant West Antarctica impact.

Four zones done, six to go.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Build Your Own Sea Level Change Fingerprinting System

Fig. 1
My previous post was placed into an ongoing series here at Dredd Blog which concerns "fingerprints" of sea level change (SLC Fingerprints R Us - 3).

This new series, which today's post begins, is going to be about the analysis of the data presented in that post à la another Dredd Blog series (Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System, 2).

As I begin this series and this post, I have not come to any conclusions as to whether or not "fingerprints" of ice sheet melt can be detected from the analysis of all PSMSL station data within a collection of WOD Zones.
Fig. 2

The main reason I have no conclusion is that I have not analyzed the data yet, nor have I developed a process with which to analyze the zone data.

The analysis is going to be done post by post, as I write down the process I am going through in order to develop a reasonable conclusion.

It will hopefully become a process that can be used on other WOD Zone collections and by bloggers other than myself.

So, let's get started.

First, notice the graphic at Fig. 1 which is derived from a published paper (Tamisiea, M.E., and J.X. Mitrovica. 2011, Oceanography PDF).

That paper, presented in the peer reviewed Oceanography Magazine,  gives a comprehensive background as to why sea level does not change the same amount everywhere, contrary to the outdated "bathtub model" (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2, 3, 4, 5).

Fig. 3a Zone 1314 up to yr 2010
Fig. 3b Zone 1314 after Fukushima quake
It also discusses sea level change "fingerprints."

Anyway, I enhanced that graphic, which depicts probable sea level change fingerprints, so that we could see what might be expected at each zone, in terms of types and amounts of sea level change (i.e. rise or fall).

I did the enhancements by adding some latitude and longitude lines, and by adding some arrows that point to the locations of the collection of WOD Zones shown on Fig. 2 (the WOD Zone map with the zones outlined by red rectangles).

The left side of the graphic @ Fig. 1 is Greenland impact, and the right side is West Antarctica impact.

By comparing Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 with the graphs of the maximum and minimum sea level change in those zones, perhaps we can detect some "fingerprints."

The colors represent the impact that Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet melt water has at various places around the globe, after being relocated there by gravity and the force of the Earth's rotation.

Moving along, note that the first thing to do in the analysis process is to check for "radical departures" in the station data (compare Fig. 3a with Fig. 3b).

That we do by noticing any anomalies in the graphs.

One of the graphs (Fig. 3b, corrected version @ Fig. 3a) had anomalous data for the years following 2010 (March 2011 Tohoku (Fukushima) Earthquake related?).

The tide gauge stations may have been moved up and/or down during the subduction event that caused the quake at 38.3 degrees North latitude and 142.4 degrees East longitude (Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11, 12, 13, 14, 15).

The PSMSL says this about it:
"A massive earthquake magnitude 9.0 occurred at 14.46 JST (05.46 UTC) on Friday 11th March 2011 with the epicentre situated approx. 70km east of the Oshika Peninsula of Tohoku. It was the largest earthquake ever to strike Japan and triggered a tsunami with waves of up to 40.5m travelling inland up to 10km. From the data plot it can be seen that obviously the tide gauge was badly damaged. Data following the earthquake flagged."
(RE: Station #1346, emphasis added). Other tide gauge stations in WOD Zone 1314 were also flagged (see Zone 1314 data here).

Anyway, with as level a playing field as we can determine at this point, we can move on to compare Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 locations with the graphs in the post that contains the WOD and PSMSL data (SLC Fingerprints R Us - 3).

Before closing for today, let's analyze WOD Zone 1313 and WOD Zone 1314 (off the coast of Japan).

The high value for WOD Zone 1313 is 652.29 mm and the low value is -535.5 mm (652.29 - 535.5 = 116.79).

The high value for WOD Zone 1314 is 1090.95 mm and the low value is 181.71 mm (1090.95 − 181.71 = 909.24).

Notice that Zone 1314 is in the red spot in the graphic on the left side of Fig. 1 (indicating maximum impact from Greenland), while Zone 1313 is only in the orange color.

This fingerprint tells us that more Greenland melt water has relocated to Zone 1314 than Antarctica melt water has.

See if you can follow this analytical technique in the other graphs (I haven't done that yet).

The next post in this series is here.