Sunday, January 22, 2023

The Citizen Journalist In America - 4

Town Criers We Are

"It's nice to be back here. I didn't know whether I was going to make it or not. I live now way down east Maine. I fled the foot of snow behind me and if I sneak back tomorrow I'll get there before the next one. I'm a marine biologist and I spent the vast majority of my career studying things that interested maybe 12 people in the world. I loved it you know because I loved biology and I loved ocean life. The spectacular beauty of it and the the puzzles of trying to understand it. But about oh my god I'm 72. So maybe 35 years ago I began to realize that everything I'd ever studied had disappeared or was on the way out. And that what I'd taken for granted as nature was something that my children would never see. So I became very involved in issues, I'd like to say deep issues of ocean conservation. But always from the perspective of the fact that for some weird reason I actually love the corals and the fishes and the sponges and the seaweed. When I gave a TED talk which has the the cheerful title of "How We Wrecked the Oceans". It was a kind of a lament for the extraordinary damage that we've done to ocean life. But around the last time I was here I started to realize that although most people sadly don't share my affection for sardines and jellyfish, they have a deep affection for themselves; and that the threats to the ocean life that I love are if anything more dangerous to us than they are to the natural life of the oceans. So, this is a very different talk. You know the last time I talked about over fishing, coastal pollution,  climate change, poor corals dying, and all that stuff. You can watch it on your website. But this time I'm going to talk about all the human beings whose lives are going to be placed in very severe jeopardy. If you think about it the crises, the global crises that are going to be caused by these events that are going to play out (and that stuff sort of in your business). So let's start right out talking about sea level rise 101. I think this audience knows all this but you would not believe how many people don't know it and that's terrifying. Sea level is rising because ice melts when it gets hot and because water gets bigger when it's warmed. The reason the earth is getting warmer as you all know is because of emissions of carbon dioxide. So far as sea level rise has been mostly due to thermal expansion so about this much globally the ocean has risen as the water is expanded as it got warmer. But you know at this point it's really most about melting the ice on the land and god only knows there's a lot of it. None of this is controversial. It was predicted by a guy I once met and I spelled his name wrong. It wasn't good stuff it was his father Svante Arrhenius who predicted exactly what would happen in his Nobel Prize speech in 1896. So this isn't exactly news. Sea level is rising a lot faster than we thought it would. Which is the really sort of scary part. It only rose about seven to eight inches in the last century. It's done more than that really pretty much up to now. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international UN group of distinguished climate scientists, makes projections every few years about how warm the earth will get how much sea level rise. There's one thing you can say about them they are consistently conservative; they always get it wrong. They've done so many IPCC reports that it's P less than 0.05 statistically that they will underestimate everything. You see that for sea level rise. The solid lines from the top are the real data all the lines below and the gray stuff. The confidence interval is the projection of the IPCC. These people have been screamed at for being radicals. They're conservative they're always too conservative. Sea level is growing, is rising faster and faster. Because what's going on is when we want off the earth. It's not just the temperature. We set off all these chain reactions of events. For example it used to be in the summer...you know the Northwest Passage...for hundreds of years nobody ever managed to sail across the Arctic Ocean in the summer. Now it's sort of a passe: 'oh you can do it and sell tickets'. The ice is melting really really fast and it's melting much faster than anybody realized. We understand now why it used to be the ocean the Artic ocean was always white in the summer with the snow on top of the ice and it reflected back the heat but now there's all this melted ice and sea water below it. The seawater looks black and absorbs more heat instead of reflecting the heat that the snow used to do. So that heat which is absorbed warms the water even more. Which means it gets warmer faster which means more ice melts which means there's more black surface which means there's more heat observed absorbed and bla bla bla bla bla. Before you know it there won't be any ice there in the summer in 20 years. Then the other thing which is actually like a horror movie is that methane gas is bubbling out of the permafrost and the lakes and the sea floor of the Arctic Ocean. Methane is 30 times stronger as a greenhouse gas than CO2. The thawing soils are getting warmer because there's more methane which makes it get hotter which mean there's more and more and more. These are 'positive feedbacks' and they are a real pain for climate modelers. They make everything nonlinear. But here's what it looks like on the left. You can clearly see black and white the more black the hotter it gets the more white the cooler it stays. The white is on the way out it's going to get hot and that will be irreversible. Then on the right you see in an Arctic like this methane gas just bubbling up continuously. You can light a match to it ... you got to have it be a stove ... it's just coming out all the time in these vast quantities. It's just going to keep doing that and then that's the disappearance of the ice in the Arctic Ocean. There won't be any there very soon. Ok so these positive feedbacks drive the modelers nuts because it's all about very complicated nonlinear dynamics. Really difficult mathematics. We keep we empiricists ... boring empiricism as opposed to the modelers ... we keep finding new feedbacks and then they have to go out and try to figure out how to incorporate those into their models. As I said before, the IPCC scientists were not alarmist they were too conservative. That's really bad news for half the population of the United States of America because we lost 20 years that we could have been doing something about this. So how much will sea level rise. Certainly as high as the naval base at Norfolk and in San Diego where I used to live. You guys are going to have to move. The latest IPCC projection which is very conservative is for about one to three feet. But what's really bizarre about this latest report is they say we're [not really] confident that it will be within those limits. That's just bizarre for modern science because what you're saying is there's one third, one in three chance we don't know what we're talking about. It could be bigger. That's the thing we should be worried. Because a one in three chance of a terrible outcome is a really bad thing. I think this is really interesting about all environmental problems. You know ... you don't like your face ... [so] you go to a plastic surgeon. You say 'fix me' ... the guy says well you know there's a 1 in 10,000 chance that you might die. You say I like my face right? Or you put your kid ...your kid goes out to walk to school and somebody tells you there been a lot of accidents lately...'there's a 1 in 10,000 chance your daughter will die walking to school'. You would not accept that. You go out and hire somebody to be at the crosswalk to walk your child to school. That common sense has not penetrated anything about the environmental policy of this country or any other country in the world [concerning global warming]. It's time to catch on. So why is confidence so low I mean it's we're really smart we've got these satellites we've got all this stuff how can we be so wrong or so unsure? The problem is Greenland and Antarctica; 80% of all the fresh water in the earth is locked up in Greenland and Antarctica. If Greenland melted tomorrow's sea level would be 23 feet higher. Oh ok all of Antarctica will probably never melt but if it did it might be a hundred feet higher. Okay it's very unlikely that all of Greenland is going to melt in the next hundred years. Very very unlikely, which is good news right? But it's incredibly worrying that there are rivers and I mean rivers of meltwater pouring off of Greenland twenty-four hours a day. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (and maybe a bunch of you in this room have been there) it's absolutely beautiful beautiful place. You know sort of down around the Antarctic Peninsula that ice sheet is unbelievably unstable. It's moving, it's bending, it's burping, it's not happy, and my friends who go down there on cruises they come back and I say Jeremy you would not believe what's going on down there. When it breaks ... it will break ... it will break suddenly not gradually. It's not like Greenland with a mile thick pile of ice. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has its feet in the bathtub. That was fine as long as it was frozen all the way down to the ground. But now water is getting in underneath. So it's gonna happen and when that happens it'll happen fast and we'll see ten-foot sea level rise in a few years and we ain't ready for them. I think we've got a few decades but but certainly no more than that. So there are a lot of people who are saying the hell with the IPCC we're just going to do it. This is an example of that. This is a very good paper. There are others. What it shows in the graph is the distribution of probabilities of a particular sea level rise. It's still the case being conservative that the peak and probability is somewhere around 70 centimeters. But look at this, look at this broad tail out to two and a half meters. We call this kind of skewed distribution fat-tailed in the jargon of Statistics. This means that there's like a 5% chance of something really really bad happening by 2100. We could all say well there's a 95% chance that that won't happen, but think about your kid walking to school and then that's not a very acceptable way to think about it." 

[the video below is longer than the above transcript excerpt of it is].

The previous post in this series is here.


Video of a War College presentation by Jeremy Jackson (from which the computer generated transcript above was taken):


Saturday, January 21, 2023

In Search Of Ocean Heat - 13

Fig. 1 The Photon Current

In the previous post of this series the ice-melt temperatures related to Ocean Heat Content (OHC) were graphed for the six Regions/Areas along the coast of Antarctica.

Seawater temperatures were likewise detailed on the same graphs  (In Search Of Ocean Heat - 12).

That effort was in response to a couple of scientific papers which were misleading, but I did not delve into all of the most basic reasons for those kinds of misleading papers. 

The most basic reason for the erroneous concepts about OHC is the failure to apply the principles of TEOS-10 in the first place.

OHC in the official international oceanography nomenclature (TEOS-10) is "Potential Enthalpy":

"it is perfectly valid to talk of potential enthalpy, h0, as the 'heat content'

(Potential Enthalpy: A Conservative Oceanic Variable for Evaluating Heat Content and Heat Fluxes, McDougall 2003, pp. 945-46, emphasis added; cf. TEOS-10).

So, today I am presenting improved graphs which are supported by HTML tables that contain the TEOS-10 values which the graphs were generated from. (you can generate your own graphs from that HTML data)

The second basic reason for scientific papers that misrepresent the nature of OHC is the ignoring the application of Quantum Physics to oceanography (Fig. 1, cf. The Ghost Photons, 2, 3).

Anyway, here are links to the appendices containing the update graphs together with the supporting data in HTML tables (Amundsen Sea, Bellingshausen Sea, Indian Ocean, Ross Sea, Weddell Sea, Western Pacific Ocean).

The previous post in this series is here.


RIP David Crosby


Friday, January 20, 2023

Western Pacific

This is an appendix to: In Search Of Ocean Heat - 13



Sector: Western Pacific Ocean

Temperatures (deg. C):
Conservative Temperature (CT)
Ice Melt Boundary (CTf)

Depths:
epipelagic (0-200 m)
mesopelagic (201-1000 m)
bathypelagic (1001-4000 m)

Year Epi-CT Epi-CTf Meso-CT Meso-CTf Bathy-CT Bathy-CTf
1950 -1.02978 -1.8923 0.62643 -2.34148 0.185507 -3.44273
1951 0.224626 -1.88951 1.11392 -2.31046 0.433039 -3.24017
1952 -0.202562 -1.89811 0.676148 -2.31231 0.255293 -3.38838
1953 0.224626 -1.88951 1.11392 -2.31046 0.433039 -3.24017
1954 -0.202562 -1.89811 0.676148 -2.31231 0.255293 -3.38838
1955 -0.416155 -1.90242 0.457262 -2.31323 0.16642 -3.46249
1956 -0.629749 -1.90672 0.238376 -2.31415 0.0775469 -3.53659
1957 -1.15971 -1.89379 -0.380448 -2.35072 0.0729063 -3.24525
1958 -1.22785 -1.91185 -1.47789 -2.19107 0.0409914 -3.22803
1959 -1.40869 -1.92141 0.175065 -2.29077 0.0090766 -3.21081
1960 -1.0859 -1.92627 0.437579 -2.26668 0.123405 -3.15656
1961 -1.48806 -1.92787 -1.56543 -2.32894 -0.545682 -3.04373
1962 -0.162879 -1.8926 1.66386 -2.00435 -0.133678 -3.25262
1963 -0.503396 -1.88514 1.59923 -1.99163 -0.545682 -3.04373
1964 -0.204268 -1.88849 -1.20333 -2.15048 -0.133678 -3.25262
1965 0.344497 -1.88581 -0.917726 -2.10523 0.0723247 -3.35707
1966 -1.04269 -1.91818 -1.04651 -2.33563 0.278327 -3.46151
1967 -0.152414 -1.89575 0.541395 -2.30443 0.11464 -3.43999
1968 0.518537 -1.876 1.73971 -2.2798 0.786218 -3.54323
1969 -0.177138 -1.89575 0.42833 -2.30778 0.167823 -3.39136
1970 -0.580714 -1.90832 0.767398 -2.30198 0.270639 -3.55383
1971 -0.542656 -1.90622 0.966145 -2.29913 0.175348 -3.55641
1972 -0.43299 -1.8977 0.749423 -2.30172 0.253979 -3.07753
1973 0.391444 -1.88003 1.16404 -2.29355 0.252198 -3.06176
1974 0.0295195 -1.89541 1.20313 -2.29203 0.427504 -2.96918
1975 0.381628 -1.89441 1.32888 -2.31166 0.700295 -2.95207
1976 0.733736 -1.89341 1.45463 -2.33129 0.973085 -2.93495
1977 -0.30182 -1.90059 0.881239 -2.30042 0.597095 -3.31675
1978 -0.62625 -1.90438 0.597701 -2.30303 -0.0938748 -3.11482
1979 -0.0884789 -1.89687 0.728577 -2.30376 0.015874 -3.03493
1980 -0.0831133 -1.89411 0.695792 -2.30537 0.207056 -2.7859
1981 0.527145 -1.88156 1.13556 -2.29606 0.406767 -3.55074
1982 -0.277702 -1.88468 1.35723 -2.26831 0.89707 -2.6891
1983 -0.236609 -1.89354 0.994416 -2.29646 0.166214 -3.55429
1984 0.284345 -1.88642 1.31915 -2.29064 0.57472 -3.09381
1985 -0.599245 -1.90565 0.524914 -2.30673 0.156283 -3.24207
1986 -0.0836556 -1.89642 0.949419 -2.29878 0.0408835 -3.05563
1987 -0.128235 -1.89708 0.753363 -2.30114 -0.074516 -2.86918
1988 -0.252608 -1.89977 0.817004 -2.30095 0.120962 -3.24247
1989 -1.12925 -1.91081 0.437483 -2.30832 0.292498 -3.10731
1990 1.21159 -1.86032 1.69805 -2.28004 0.453163 -3.54868
1991 -0.0119996 -1.87015 1.22979 -2.30159 0.281944 -3.6565
1992 0.201629 -1.89178 0.992755 -2.29826 0.479469 -3.10266
1993 0.548014 -1.88246 1.22723 -2.29317 0.359158 -3.38779
1994 -0.044903 -1.89275 1.08633 -2.29556 0.328127 -3.5521
1995 -0.391346 -1.90044 1.08822 -2.29608 0.223559 -3.55439
1996 -0.495534 -1.90263 0.914729 -2.29871 0.163329 -3.55546
1997 0.0454496 -1.88057 -0.210965 -2.31886 -0.50956 -3.25378
1998 0.722881 -1.88248 1.2373 -2.29319 0.565773 -3.11243
1999 1.0967 -1.86247 1.28409 -2.25435 0.734622 -3.24316
2000 -0.404819 -1.90959 0.242626 -2.2938 0.0957482 -3.45964
2001 0.0399127 -1.89197 1.21363 -2.29283 0.182249 -3.39061
2002 0.293063 -1.88454 1.22542 -2.29155 0.30638 -3.55221
2003 -0.0765183 -1.89496 1.05416 -2.29671 0.205824 -3.48017
2004 -0.445809 -1.90143 0.788139 -2.3013 0.252722 -3.38981
2005 -0.257683 -1.89859 1.11435 -2.29374 0.417188 -3.55056
2006 0.230394 -1.88439 1.60816 -2.28445 0.686371 -3.23072
2007 -0.131882 -1.89447 1.09766 -2.29514 0.447422 -3.38554
2008 -0.382979 -1.90375 0.823437 -2.30098 0.227497 -3.55416
2009 -0.380997 -1.90011 1.12078 -2.29441 0.719844 -2.91665
2010 -0.141308 -1.89726 1.26232 -2.29283 0.804822 -2.98796
2011 -0.261463 -1.89628 1.06448 -2.2959 0.406043 -3.55039
2012 -0.178464 -1.89303 1.16999 -2.29231 0.421183 -3.55005
2013 -0.230351 -1.8947 1.15366 -2.2925 0.363967 -3.55044
2014 -0.552484 -1.90443 1.09287 -2.29499 0.456314 -3.38507
2015 -0.42833 -1.90162 0.849861 -2.29993 0.452886 -3.38516
2016 0.10358 -1.88935 1.45204 -2.28777 0.427798 -3.5507
2017 0.0382787 -1.89127 1.21696 -2.2939 0.493485 -3.38214
2018 -0.0303276 -1.89075 1.32818 -2.29162 0.410332 -3.55128
2019 0.195885 -1.8876 1.21691 -2.2934 0.38012 -3.55239
2020 0.0904897 -1.88966 1.27244 -2.29349 0.429131 -3.55076
2021 -0.024713 -1.87855 1.34036 -2.28366 0.410372 -3.54838
2022 -0.159716 -1.89385 0.947571 -2.29886 0.446302 -3.55167

Weddell Sea

This is an appendix to: In Search Of Ocean Heat - 13



 
Sector: Weddell Sea

Temperatures (deg. C):
Conservative Temperature (CT)
Ice Melt Boundary (CTf)

Depths:
epipelagic (0-200 m)
mesopelagic (201-1000 m)
bathypelagic (1001-4000 m)

Year Epi-CT Epi-CTf Meso-CT Meso-CTf Bathy-CT Bathy-CTf
1951 -0.155904 -1.89457 0.0470472 -2.2546 -0.0403999 -3.11706
1952 -0.565387 -1.89447 0.203099 -2.16185 -0.0403999 -3.11706
1953 -0.97487 -1.89437 0.359151 -2.0691 -0.0403999 -3.11706
1954 -0.461653 -1.90872 0.513886 -2.10919 -0.0403999 -3.11706
1955 -0.872732 -1.9135 -0.451007 -2.32553 -0.0403999 -3.11706
1956 -1.16128 -1.92489 -0.0571883 -2.31749 -0.100732 -3.46016
1957 -0.649075 -1.913 -0.0323333 -2.26457 -0.0184204 -3.46567
1958 -1.26071 -1.92971 -0.0366059 -2.32101 0.0149777 -3.39464
1959 -1.45673 -1.93131 -0.596499 -2.33023 -0.0455722 -3.55919
1960 -1.11371 -1.91872 0.237776 -2.31147 -0.0450332 -3.11098
1961 -1.45759 -1.92916 -0.384588 -2.32726 -0.040238 -3.00548
1962 -0.525397 -1.90574 0.608737 -2.30646 0.560865 -3.25959
1963 -0.815666 -1.91115 -0.15336 -2.31867 -0.248016 -3.5628
1964 -0.949806 -1.92026 0.654252 -2.31382 -0.136224 -3.62177
1965 -0.906191 -1.91091 0.0370727 -2.31528 0.10205 -3.25567
1966 -0.917158 -1.91533 -0.338081 -2.32545 -0.25082 -3.56317
1967 -0.358929 -1.89698 0.431362 -2.30787 -0.131363 -3.5613
1968 -0.880225 -1.91665 0.060764 -2.31634 -0.239957 -3.56329
1969 -0.70288 -1.91366 0.107272 -2.31628 -0.126257 -3.56109
1970 -0.9949 -1.90939 -0.171782 -2.31985 0.0299252 -3.39411
1971 -0.782053 -1.91536 0.350308 -2.3097 0.110033 -3.55585
1972 -0.539195 -1.90362 0.466701 -2.3053 -0.0444089 -3.55613
1973 -1.04793 -1.9202 -0.076567 -2.31958 -0.193183 -3.56258
1974 -0.506063 -1.90501 0.327125 -2.31069 -0.0712468 -3.62082
1975 -0.114651 -1.89808 0.364778 -2.30965 -0.150035 -3.56098
1976 -0.412278 -1.90175 -0.0124293 -2.28849 -0.208406 -3.06858
1977 -0.209291 -1.90092 0.101416 -2.31509 -0.212615 -3.56277
1978 -0.673385 -1.90726 0.246406 -2.31087 -0.150025 -3.56105
1979 -0.554852 -1.90349 -0.548788 -2.21753 -1.48739 -2.89783
1980 -0.0644131 -1.90379 0.262966 -2.31327 0.0132666 -3.5586
1981 -0.531408 -1.89396 0.145523 -2.30828 -0.350608 -3.63413
1982 -0.747635 -1.91147 0.0819866 -2.31467 -0.305955 -3.24809
1983 -1.13655 -1.92009 -0.323905 -2.32454 -0.252356 -3.56404
1984 -0.463807 -1.90865 -0.0669318 -2.31997 -0.132989 -3.56072
1985 -0.977984 -1.9185 -0.443382 -2.32738 -0.221127 -3.56354
1986 -1.33259 -1.93052 -0.058573 -2.31775 -0.136805 -3.56086
1987 -0.798376 -1.91561 0.18206 -2.31392 -0.283004 -3.56371
1988 -0.525004 -1.90547 0.381366 -2.3083 0.0426966 -3.55757
1989 -1.24261 -1.92984 -0.0478101 -2.31781 -0.20137 -3.56256
1990 -0.849143 -1.92297 0.113177 -2.31452 -0.267221 -3.56365
1991 -1.32207 -1.91504 -0.132566 -2.31741 -0.200928 -3.56249
1992 -1.24015 -1.92613 0.0645511 -2.31403 -0.134047 -3.56094
1993 -1.17234 -1.92774 0.276727 -2.31226 -0.275242 -3.56385
1994 -1.00689 -1.91959 0.166663 -2.31417 -0.122285 -3.56062
1995 -1.2434 -1.92345 -0.265081 -2.32323 -0.170469 -3.56132
1996 -0.951541 -1.91831 0.233911 -2.31158 -0.19423 -3.5622
1997 -1.28696 -1.9196 0.162134 -2.31359 -0.324597 -3.56382
1998 -0.933453 -1.91652 0.270904 -2.3123 -0.26217 -3.56322
1999 -0.889705 -1.91528 -0.136122 -2.31921 -0.201306 -3.56193
2000 -0.680679 -1.91385 0.0855314 -2.31533 -0.279637 -3.56355
2001 -0.94108 -1.91896 0.215386 -2.31436 -0.31964 -3.56434
2002 -0.554358 -1.90949 0.743408 -2.30223 -0.0437086 -3.55894
2003 -0.623445 -1.91065 0.460283 -2.30844 -0.0587502 -3.55922
2004 -0.0592572 -1.89834 0.688928 -2.30256 0.04501 -3.32919
2005 -0.823473 -1.91578 0.345122 -2.31009 -0.138062 -3.56099
2006 -0.804692 -1.91942 0.507772 -2.30623 0.425917 -3.54707
2007 -0.961889 -1.92274 0.740647 -2.29954 0.288824 -3.27127
2008 -1.11497 -1.92163 0.20982 -2.31295 -0.0666119 -3.55906
2009 -1.09354 -1.92357 0.106767 -2.31582 -0.207806 -3.56116
2010 -0.792989 -1.91539 0.38935 -2.30438 -0.120022 -3.55893
2011 -1.01627 -1.92432 0.137736 -2.31567 -0.178494 -3.44331
2012 -0.811097 -1.91678 0.471129 -2.30826 -0.140527 -3.52885
2013 -0.793992 -1.91575 0.440148 -2.30754 -0.188928 -3.56067
2014 -1.06877 -1.92389 0.271672 -2.31325 -0.123541 -3.56041
2015 -0.781887 -1.91417 0.426093 -2.30941 -0.0977012 -3.56006
2016 -0.649795 -1.9125 0.319601 -2.31118 -0.0501865 -3.44039
2017 -0.816064 -1.91662 0.435822 -2.30838 -0.0449877 -3.55893
2018 -0.838012 -1.91397 0.293765 -2.31202 -0.107581 -3.56067
2019 -0.639605 -1.91187 0.44891 -2.30817 -0.0697475 -3.55929
2020 -0.5271 -1.90147 0.489899 -2.29934 -0.0662294 -3.55829
2021 -0.855228 -1.91119 0.276435 -2.31059 -0.120136 -3.56
2022 -0.594848 -1.9212 0.33161 -2.31872 0.0481836 -3.34043