Sunday, March 26, 2017

The Layered Approach To Big Water - 8

Fig. 1 N. Hemisphere Layers Zero - Layer Nine
I. A College Experiment

Today, along with the graphs of N. Hemisphere Layer Zero through Layer Eight (in Month format), let's peruse a college level class guidance sheet concerning the hypothesis of thermal expansion being the major cause of sea level rise in the 19th and 20th centuries (Oregon State, PDF).

This material is taught to college / university level students who put on their lab coats and do the following experiment.

First, a 125-250 ml. conical flask is filled with water.

The flask is then equipped with a two hole cork, which is placed into the opening at the top, and then two thin glass tubes are forced into the holes in the cork.

Fig. 2 Layer Eight
This is supposed to represent the deep and wide oceans (it doesn't).

II. A Better Experiment

For this experiment scenario to be an accurate representation, it would have to be a very deep flask, say 20-30 ft., filled with ocean water of different temperatures and salinity levels (and a certain percentage of its lower area should be coated or wrapped with black paper, tape, or plastic to represent the dark depths of the ocean.

Fig. 3 Layer Seven
The lower level (representing >3000 m) should be at a temperature from about 5 deg. C down to less than 0 deg. C, depending on which layer (L0-L8) is being simulated.

The upper layers should typically have graduated temperatures, generally warmer as the surface is approached (see e.g. Fig. 2 - Fig. 4).

The heat applied via a lamp (simulating sunlight striking the surface) should impact the surface area only.
Fig. 4 Layer Six

Absent this more realistic lab setup, this experiment at Oregon State, typical of college labs, shows how a myth is advanced.

Anyway, when the warmth in the light impacting the water at the surface of the flask, simulating sunlight entering the ocean at the surface, increases, the second law of thermodynamics will apply, and the heat in the warmer water will flow to the cooler water as equilibrium is sought to be attained.

This applies in a manner that causes heat flow horizontally and/or vertically, depending on the current conditions in that area.

Even with the better experiment, the class will wait all semester, or longer, before any meaningful net thermal expansion takes place.

Fig. 5 Layer Five
III. The Best Experiment

The best "experiment" is to OBSERVE the actual measurements taken by research scientists over the years then placed into the World Ocean Database (WOD).

There are billions of such measurements (I myself have personally downloaded ~0.97 billion such measurements to use for generating graphs (Databases Galore - 18).

Such observations shown in graphs in this and other Dredd Blog series reveal that even though most of the heat (~95%) being trapped by greenhouse gases is making its way into the oceans, it does not result in a dynamic that is "the major or a major cause of sea level rise due to thermal expansion."
Fig. 6 Layer Four

What takes place is that the distance between the lines on the graph that represent temperature levels will increase and decrease as the laws of thermodynamics and fluid dynamics apply and the warmth or heat flows toward and into colder water over, under, or beside it.

This flow, in general, will be in a downward direction until a "contextual equilibrium" is reached.

Fig. 7 Layer Three
At that time the status quo will emerge and persist until more heat is added by more sunlight (at which time the cycle repeats, forcing the temperature increase downward until it drops x amount as the lower level temperature increases x amount).

I wrote "contextual equilibrium" because various factors such as salinity, currents, and several other factors can resist or halt the flow for a time.

Nevertheless, when the ocean wakes up in the morning to start all over again, the laws of fluids and thermodymics will still be around.

Fig. 8 Layer Two
IV. A Discussion of the Class Discussion

The teacher is guided by the Oregon State guidance sheet.

The text reads "If global temperature increases, many scientists have indicated that an increase in sea level is one of the most likely secondary effects." (p. 1)

It may be true that "many scientists have indicated," but many of that "many" do so parroting previous statements rather than "going to the lab" themselves.

The "most likely secondary effects" are dying coral, extinction of species, and increasing temperature measurements further down in the ocean depths.

Fig. 9 Layer One
Once contextual equilibrium is reached in an ocean area, then thermal expansion becomes a candidate for a minor cause, not a major cause, of sea level rise.

But as soon as the context changes in that area, such as salinity, then the transfer of warm to cold kicks in once again and the temperature at the warmer level drops as the temperature at the cooler level increases until a contextual equilibrium is reached (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14).

Fig. 10 Layer Zero
But more than that, if that contextual temperature had been sufficient to cause sea level rise there in that contextual area, the sea level will fall the amount it had risen (thermal contraction) when the temperature drops (ibid).

Nevertheless, when the status quo temperature at any contextual area is harmful to species in that water, damage is going to be done regardless of the advent or not of sea level rise or fall.

V. The Big Picture

The teacher's guide goes on to indicate "Second, rising temperatures will cause the ice and snowfields to melt, thereby increasing the amount of water in the oceans."

What would the teacher say if a student were to ask "how much sea level can thermal expansion cause compared to ice melting?"

Would the teacher refer to NOAA et al. calculations that the amount of sea level rise caused by ice melt is about 80.32 meters or 263.51 feet (USGS) ?

Or would she refer to the Dredd Blog calculation based on ghost water (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) ?

Or would he say it depends on where you would measure the change due to gravitational and rotational dynamics (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4) ?

VI. Conclusion

We have to trust (The Pillars of Knowledge: Faith and Trust?) but we must also confirm (What Is Pseudo Science?).

The previous post in this series is here.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 5

"I am not an American Company"
In the previous post I wrote:
"Well, we covered The Don, The Banners, and Sgt. Dog in the previous posts of this series (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3).

So, today let's cover the Mighty Quinn, a General of Bullshitistan if there ever was one.
(The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 4). So, in today's episode let's cover T-Rex, the guy from the tradition "I am not an American company." (The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads).

Recently T-Rex forgot to put on his camouflage package, and therefore went alt-pro shape-shifter out in alt-right public view:
"Secretary of State [T-Rex] is skipping a NATO meeting, but he is planning to travel to Russia next month. His travel schedule is raising alarms in Europe." - NPR
"[T-Rex's] decision to miss his first NATO meeting but visit Russia a week later plunged his department into damage control, frustrated allies and left analysts scratching their heads at an administration that once again is rubbing Europe the wrong way and raising questions about its commitment to its Western allies." - CNN
"America’s newly-installed secretary of state [T-Rex] is to skip his first Nato meeting, it has been announced, and will instead greet the president of China and then travel to Russia." - Telegraph
The media's consternation is misplaced due primarily to a dearth of knowledge of the history of Oil-Qaeda, so let's just briefly go through it from recent on back into the more distant past:
"Speaking from the Black Sea resort town of Sochi, Russian President Vladmir Putin lauded ExxonMobil, calling the company Russia’s 'old and reliable [dirty oil] partner.'"
(Deepwater Horizon Keeps On Killing & Drilling - 3). That took place several years ago in 2014.

Going back further, Oil-Qaeda all along has been in sufficient control of "America's lifeblood" ("Oil is the lifeblood of America's economy" - ibid) via surreptitious State Department machinations:
John D. Rockefeller, in his 1909 Random Reminiscences of Men and Events, recalled, "One of our greatest helpers has been the State Department. Our ambassadors and ministers and consuls have aided to push our way into new markets in the utmost corners of the world." But he left out a key explanation for the government's interest. Standard Oil was the biggest U.S. company, putting a hundred ships to sea, buying and selling oil in Latin America, Germany, and the Far East. It also operated a global intelligence system. "By 1885," according to one historian, "seventy percent of the Standard's business was overseas and it had its own network of agents through the world, and its own espionage service, to forestall the initiatives of rival companies or governments."
(The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads). Is it any wonder, then, that T-Rex would come out of the closet, come from behind the curtain, and show us how things have always been over at the State Department?

Their secular religion (Oilah Akbar! Oilah Akbar!, 2, 3, 4, Hateful Oilboarding For Oilah Akbar, Oilah Akbar in Afghanistan, You Rejected Your Only Savior For Oilah) has shaped and shifted world events since your grandmother and grandfather tried to figure it out long ago:
Long before politicians mewled helplessly about the power of “Big Oil”, carbon-based fuels were shaping our very political, legal, intellectual, and physical structures.
For instance, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a pivotal moment in America’s strategic outlook. America, a global hegemon whose empire was weakening, seized the second largest oil deposits in the world as a way of preventing its economic and political decline.
The last declining global hegemon, Great Britain, also engaged in a brutal and highly controversial British occupation of Iraq, in the 1920s, pressed aggressively by the well-known British conservative, Winston Churchill.
From the moment he arrived at the Admiralty, a young man of destiny, Churchill started to prepare the fleet for the Battle of Armageddon he believed was inevitable.
Then, in 1911, the German Kaiser provoked the Agadir crisis ... Churchill went to the Admiralty and his outlook transformed. He was immediately confronted with the decisive question: to convert the navy from coal to oil ... the "fateful plunge" was made ... in April 1912 ... five oil-burning battleships were approved.
Britain was well supplied with coal [but not oil]. It was the Royal Navy which was the impetus for the development of the oil industry in Britain. The problem was supply and the security of that supply. Initially, the British government purchased shares in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, subsequently, British Petroleum [BP].
Then, to prevent further disruptions, Britain enmeshed itself ever more deeply in the Middle East, working to install new shahs in Iran and carve Iraq out of the collapsing Ottoman Empire.

Churchill fired the starting gun, but all of the Western powers joined the race to control Middle Eastern oil.
(The Universal Smedley - 2, cf The Fleets and Terrorism Follow The Oil - 2). There is little wonder that sometimes T-Rex will forget to play-pretend (which shocks the media).

He recently did so by accidentally pointing out the Russia thingy, thereby revealing that the media are lost in space, and causing a "YAH" psychological reaction a la You Are Here.

T-Rex is in Jurassic Park baby, acting out the final scene (the Anthropocene).

The previous post in this series is here.

T-Rex to Lady Liberty:

Friday, March 24, 2017

The Layered Approach To Big Water - 7

Layer Eight
I. Background

Regular readers know that I use only in situ measurements from the World Ocean Database (WOD) that have been placed into the "CTD" and "PFL" datasets, and that I use both 'O' (random depth) and 'S' (standard depth) categories therein.

Recently I mentioned changing my conversion settings to only use individual measurements in the WOD that have been given a zero errors setting (out of 0-9) by the WOD handlers (A New Way of Analyzing The Depths - 4).

Layer Seven
Subsequent to that change, I have now also added filters that only allow individual measurements of the Temperature ('varcode 1') and Salinity ('varcode 2') measurements.

Further, I have put quality restrictions of my own on the qualities of those measurements.

Layer Six
This involves only using Salinity readings from 0.5 to 38, and Temperature readings from -2.5 C to 35.5 C, since those are the general low (polar) and high (Persion Gulf) valid ocean water temperatures (Temperature of Ocean Water).

Layer Five
Some of the values in the WOD are out of that range, so they are flagged and filtered now so that I don't use them.

Layer Four
Nevertheless, over so many posts, a few may still get through the software system, so keep an eye out as I do.
Layer Three

II. The "Layer" Approach

In this series I have intended to follow latitude oriented layers from the Equator north into the Northern Hemisphere, and south into the Southern Hemisphere (see last graph showing the area in red outline).

Layer Two
The intent is to graph areas of generally equal temperature and salinity ranges, seeing as how the layers tend to be equidistant from the Equator and from the poles.
Layer One

Today's posts feature Layer Zero through Layer Eight, which covers the Northern Hemisphere.

The day of year format "DOY" is used on all graphs.

Layer Zero
This format tends to show a generally decreasing temperature levels as we move from the Equator toward the Arctic, which is to be expected.

III. Other Formats To Come

The month and year formats for these zones will be presented in graphs in soon-to-come posts.

They will be covering the same nine layers.

They will be  in formats that use the exact same temperature and salinity data.

Nevertheless, they will be able to present a different, but revealing picture.

I have been pleased with how much it helps to present the exact same data in three ways as I said before.

IV. Why Am I Doing This?

I have written that one of the reasons is to revisit the hypothesis that "thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise" in the 19th and 20th centuries.
World Ocean Database Zones (layers L0-L8)
That came from the IPCC some time back, and IMO it is not a correct hypothesis, because, as you can see the temperature levels of the oceans do not show the trend that sea level graphs show.

The bathtub model as it applies to sea level change is a non-starter (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2, 3, 4).

The ocean layers, if the thermal expansion hypothesis had not been falsified in these multiple series of posts (Series Posts, SEA LEVEL), would show stable upward trend lines.

Instead, they show stable trend lines indicating IMO that the ninety some odd percent of heat being trapped by green house gases is going into the oceans and is then being relatively evenly distributed.

V. Exceptions To The Rule

The polar regions are out of form in that department, because they are unequally impacted (see e.g. Polar Sea Ice Trend At Both Poles, 2, 3, 4).

They are warming several times faster than the lower latitudes are (Live Science).

The graphs get a bit rugged at the poles (compare Layer Zero  to Layer Eight).

VI. Conclusion

The great ice sheets contain sufficient ice to raise sea level hundreds of feet, and they are now and have been the main source of sea level change (Humble Oil-Qaeda).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Polar Sea Ice Trend At Both Poles - 4

Fig. 1 Antarctica 2016
At the Arctic circle sea-ice area the season of maximum sea-ice extent looks like it is over for this year.

At the south pole, as usual, the opposite is true.

With one difference.

Both poles are setting all time records for the lowest (minimum) sea-ice extent since records began to be taken and recorded.

This record setting trend began last year, and all things considered, seems to be a trend (the new abnormal).

Fig. 2 Antarctica 2017
The story at the north polar region is that the lowest winter sea-ice extent (lowest maximum) is history now.

Not only that, there is the potential to set the record for the lowest summer and fall sea ice extent.

Everyone will be watching for, in a few months, the lowest summer / fall minimum ever.

Regular readers will remember that I am also watching the OMG project closely (OMG: Oceans Melting Greenland).

I want to see what impact the sea-ice extent's ongoing extinction might have on the Greenland Ice Sheet, and the Antarctica Ice Sheet.

Fig. 3 Arctic Sea-ice 2016
The graphs in Fig. 1 and Fig. 3 are Dredd Blog graphs for 2016 sea-ice extent, while Fig. 2 and Fig. 4 are recent graphs up to and including March 21, 2017.

The NSIDC graph at Fig. 5 is another way of "saying" the same thing regarding the Arctic sea-ice extent.

The downward turn in the size of the sea-ice there is unmistakable, and it is a sign of even more startling things that are going to come our way.

Fig. 4 Arctic Sea-ice 2017
These events are no surprise to global warming induced climate change researchers.

They forewarned us that this was going to happen as a result of the spread of climate change denying politics and pseudo-science.

Together with the denialists' refusal to heed hard science in favor of soft, dishonest political dementia, the catastrophe is spreading like a cognitive cancer (Etiology of Social Dementia, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16).

Fig. 5  NSIDC Graph 3/21/17
The longer that societies remain in the current demented status-quo state, the sicker the Earth will become.

In terms of extinction of biological species, including human civilization, they too will slowly melt away (sans a nuclear war which would be the quickest dead end).

History and herstory are the same in this respect:  "In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee

The previous post in this series is here.