Friday, June 22, 2018

Proof of Concept - 9

Fig. 1
I. Background

This series deals with several subjects concerning sea level change.

One main theme is "what causes sea level change?" ... focusing on less well known causes.

Another theme is how much sea level change is caused by thermal expansion, which focuses on the erroneous hypothesis that "thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise."

That is the subject of today's post, except that the TEOS-10 library that calculates thermal expansion volume will not be used.

Fig. 2a
Fig. 2b
Fig. 2c
Fig. 2d
Fig. 2e
Fig. 2f
Fig. 2g
Fig. 2h
Fig. 2i
Fig. 2j
Fig. 2k
Fig. 2l
Fig. 2m
Fig. 2n
Fig. 2o
Fig. 2p
Fig. 2q
Fig. 2r
Fig. 2s
Fig. 2t
Instead, I am going to show more cases where sea level change is taking place, but it is obviously not caused by thermal expansion.

In preparation, I had to write a special software module to go through the hundreds of WOD Zones of data in my SQL database.

The first thing to search for is whether a particular zone has tide gauge stations or not, because that is the source of the sea level change data.

The second thing to search for is whether that same zone also has water temperature and salinity (a.k.a. "conductivity") records taken in the same time frame as the tide gauge records were taken.

That requires a software operation to find the beginning year when the tide gauge stations match the beginning year when the sea water temperature and salinity measurements of ocean water were performed.

Practically, it means beginning the graph at the same year, which may leave out some earlier measurements from zone to zone.

(Typically, sea level measurements, all things considered, go back further than subsurface ocean condition measurements do.)

Once the equalization of beginnings is established, the graphs are easier to read.

The result then is comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges as it were.

In some previous posts, the graphs were not synchronized like that, so some of them could be more difficult to read (e.g. here Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System - 2, where there is one 10-yr difference).

II. The Comparisons

When a zone is found that fits the bill, the data are analyzed to see if the sea level change trend (rise or fall) is the same as the sea water temperature trend (warming or cooling).

If they don't make thermal expansion sense, then that zone is noted and a CSV file is generated so that a graph can be made.

By making "thermal expansion sense" I mean that a sea level rising trend in that zone must also have a sea water temperature rising trend in that zone.

Or, conversely, if sea level is falling then sea water temperature must be falling too.

Otherwise, there is no visible link between a warming ocean water temperature trend and a sea level rise trend.

By the way, the temperature and sea level values shown in the graphs are the mean averages of temperatures at all depths (for WOD values) and are also mean averages of all tide gauge records in that zone.

III. The Results

In WOD zones around the globe, from the north to the equator on down to the ocean south of the equator, there are cases were the thermal expansion hypothesis is falsified.

The graphs today are continuations of the graphs from previous posts that also revealed this reality (The World According To Measurements - 14, Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System - 2).

IV. The Graphs

The graph at Fig. 1 maps out today's graph locations.

The red squares on the map show where Fig. 2a - Fig. 2t graphs are located.

I also added red lines to the graphs as an indication of the trend over past decades in the zone featured in that graph.

In today's graphs, there are two types of events shown on the graphs.

The first event type is when sea level has a rising trend, but the sea water temperature has a cooling trend (see any graph except Fig. 2d and Fig. 2t).

The other type of event is when sea level has a falling trend, but the sea water temperature trend (in contrast) is warming (see graphs at Fig. 2d, Fig. 2t).

These trends shown on the graphs do not comport with the hypothesis that thermal expansion is the main cause of the sea level rise.

If thermal expansion, caused by warming sea water in that zone, was the case, then in zones where sea level has a rising trend, the sea water temperature must also have a rising (warming) trend.

V. Half Truths 

The fact that 71% of the Earth is covered with water was seen as low hanging fruit to be used by lazy researchers to popularize the mantra posing as an axiom: "when water warms it expands."

That is a half-truth, not an axiom.

If water temperature is below its maximum density temperature and heat is added, it will contract (condense, shrink) in volume, not expand (until the maximum density temperature is reached).

Half-truths are not good in scientific circles because, in science, truths should be whole truths (Let's Not Be Too Dense - 2).

Here are a very few examples of what you can find from a Google search:
"When water heats up, it expands." National Geographic

"When the ocean warms, seawater ... expands, raising sea level." - National Academies Press


"water expands as it warms" - NOAA

"The ocean will expand when heated." - JPL NASA

"As sea water heats up it ... takes up more space, sea levels rise." - Carbon Brief

"If this heat from global temperature rise is passed on to the water, water expands ...” - CLEAN

"Warmer seas mean higher sea levels ... water expands as it warms" - The Lawrence Underground
The concept of thermal expansion as a cause célèbre for sea level rise has been oversold for way too long.

VI. Conclusion

I fully expect this situation to change as the Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010  (TEOS-10) library is used to calculate sea water volume changes caused by the warming of the oceans (Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System, 2).

One reason for that optimism is the recent "discovery" of ghost water (NASA Busts The Ghost).

Until then, the ignoring of Newton, Woodworth 1888, and Mitrovica had misled the searchers who were perplexed (the missing cause of more sea level rise than was expected was actually unknown).

Their concepts of how much ice was melting into the oceans was therefore flawed with underestimations.

It had long been believed by way too many of them that the vast Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in East Antarctica, was rock solid and was not going to melt (Antarctica 2.0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 [& supplements A, B, C, D, E, F]).

That is not the understanding of most of them any more ("The ice sheets are melting!").

The previous post in this series is here.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Follow The Immunity - 7

Where are the girls?
I. Background

This series concerns something "hidden in plain sight" by some force or cognitive device which we call "immunity. "

By "hidden" I mean under the sway of a "cloaking device."

Those kinds of propaganda devices only work on the most "blind" among us: those who refuse to see.

What if a gang kidnapped children ... would you support the gang?

Remember:
"In April 2014, more than 200 girls were kidnapped from a school in Nigeria."
(Kidnapped as School Children). What if the United States of America Trump Regime did the immune form of what The Don calls "good kidnapping" (The [Trump Regime] Has Taken More Than 3,700 Children From Their Parents — and Has No Plan for Returning Them)?

That 200 who were kidnapped by Boko was child's play compared to the 3,700 "good kidnap" statistic that trumps it ("The death of one [child] is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic." - Stalin).

The sound of the trumpettes is only part of the immunity:
"It is forbidden to kill therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets." -Voltaire
(The Trumpettes). The glamorous world of the socialites who support the government Trump Regime point out that everything will turn out ok because bigly killings are planned along with military parades with lots of trumpets.

II. The Pull Outs

The United States of America Trump Regime pulled out of another United Nations sub-group which had criticized him for his personal "good kidnapping" policy:
"The announcement came just a day after the U.N. human rights chief, Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, denounced the Trump administration for separating migrant children from their parents."
(Trump administration pulls U.S. out of U.N. human rights council). Kimmy Un and Pootie Poot are fans of The Don, and so is the republican right wing which once upon a time rejected the tattoo on The Don's heart: "better red than dead."

III. RED TIES

When I say he has RED TIES I am not speaking of red neck cloth.

His photo-op-cum-summit-meeting with "strong men" like Putin, Un, and Duterte, gives new meaning to RED TIES.

That is not the biggest danger, another form of stealth energy is (Beware of the Sycophant Epidemic, 2).

IV. Conclusion

When the government Trump Regime becomes immune from "good kidnapping", too many people have been napping ... and still are.

Prepare to be napped.

The previous post in this series is here.

Gonna Trade You For a Wall

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

The World According To Measurements - 14

Fig. 1 Renegade WOD Zones
In a recent post I blogged about WOD Zones where the sea level changes taking place there do not comport with the hypothesis that thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level change (Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System - 2).

I focused on WOD Zone 7513 in that post.

Today I want to focus on several more such zones, marked in red squares on Fig. 1. (NOTE that these types of comparisons require WOD Zones that have not only temperature and salinity measurements, but they must also have PSMSL tide gauge station records to display the sea level changes on graphs).
Fig. 2a

Fig. 2b
There may be other cases of these zones that challenge the hypothesis, but many WOD Zones do not contain any required tide gauge stations (because tide gauge stations are located on coast lines).
Fig. 2c
Fig. 2d
Fig. 2e
Fig. 2f
Fig. 2g
Fig. 2h
Fig. 2i
Fig. 2j

Anyway, the graphs at Fig. 2a - Fig. 2j show sea level rise (as recorded by PSMSL tide gauge stations) compared to sea water temperature and salinity.

The hypothesis that the main cause of sea level rise is thermal expansion is (once again) falsified in these graphs.

I put red lines on the Conservative Temperature and sea level change (SLC) graphs to show that the trends do not match the hypothesis.

Notice that the sea level change, whether that changes is sea level fall (SLF) or sea level rise (SLR) is obviously not caused by the temperature of the water.

In fact, the trends in SLC compared to temperature trends are opposites.

Notice that the coverage is quite broad, missing the southern hemisphere more than other places.

Nevertheless, there are zones at or near the equator where one would expect the SLC there to be impacted by warmer waters.

But as has been shown over and over again, the hypothesis that thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise is not supported by the best evidence (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36).

There seems to be a trend toward realizing that ice sheet and glacial melt is the major cause:
"About one third of sea level rise stems from the thermal expansion of the ocean due to higher temperatures, Dusek said. Two thirds, he said, can be blamed on ice melting in Greenland, Antarctica and elsewhere."
(New York, Boston Set Coastal Flood Records). That is the correct direction and path to stay on.

One thing that has been missing in the discussions by "The Warming Science Commentariat" is the thermodynamic fact that very cold water (compared to the very, very much colder tidewater glacier ice).

I have presented that thermodynamic evidence in an ongoing series ( Hot, Warm, & Cold Thermal Facts: Tidewater-Glaciers, 2, 3, 4).

Some of these problems can be solved with the use of the Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010 (TEOS-10), an official software library based on the science of Josiah Willard Gibbs (The World According To Measurements - 12).

With the Trump Administration having gone "batshit crazy" according to Senator Lindsey Graham, all of the science concerning global warming induced climate change is in trouble.

This counter revolution to the advancement of science could not have developed at a worse time it would seem.

Some of my somewhat tongue-in-cheek posts recently may not be as tongue-in-cheek as they may seem (Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System, 2).

I have heard that a migration of scientists started even before Trump put the pedal to the metal (US Scientists Are Leaving The Country And Taking The Innovation Economy With Them).

That article is about 5 years old, so we can expect the exodus to continue since the war on facts what commence by the shape shifters (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13).

Trump's fame or infamy may bite the sycophantic deniers in the butt once the alt-genieology fully plays out (On The Origin of Genieology).

The previous post in this series is here.



Sunday, June 17, 2018

Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System - 2

Fig. 1 WOD Zone 7513
I. Advantages

There are some advantages to having your own thermosteric computational system (Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System).

"It's easy to do" isn't one of them.

But the fact that you can concentrate your research on one zone or one tide gauge station, or all WOD zones and all PSMSL tide gauge stations, is one of those advantages.

It makes it less of a hassle to check scientific, peer reviewed papers for true science, for
Fig. 2 Location of WOD Zone 7513
not so true science, and even for questionable hypotheses in those papers.

Today, once again let's do just that.

Let's take a look at one WOD Zone (7513) marked with the red square on the WOD Map at Fig. 2.

The relevant data taken from WOD and PSMSL datasets is displayed on the graph at Fig. 1, so that we can see how "the hypothesis that the main cause of sea level rise is that the ocean is warming" comports with the available evidence.

II. Fact vs Fiction

Of course, the warming of the oceans is something that we can confirm.

We can confirm as well that the cause of that ocean warming is global warming of the atmosphere due to the overuse of fossil fuels, and that most of that warming enters the oceans.

But does that ipso facto support the hypothesis that the ocean warming taking place is the main cause of sea level rise?

No, that part is fiction, but the word is beginning to spread:
"Observations from the Jason series have revolutionized scientists' understanding of contemporary sea level rise and its causes. We know that today's sea level rise is about one-third the result of the warming of existing ocean water, with the remainder [two-thirds] coming from melting land ice."
(Is Sea Level Science Above the Law?, quoting NASA). Even though I consider "one-third" to be an over-estimate, at least the direction the revolution is taking is the correct direction.

But, these "revolutioniz[ing]" events take a while to percolate through the walls of bias generated by errors in text books and older, erroneous papers (Humble Oil-Qaeda - 2).

III. The Graphs

To put it bluntly, the graph at Fig. 1 shows that the mean average sea level of WOD Zone 7513 is falling, not rising.

It also shows that the sea level is not rising even though the mean average water temperature is rising.

This phenomenon takes place all around the Cryosphere where there are huge ice sheets and glacier fields (Proof of Concept, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8; The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points, 2The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4; NASA Busts The Ghost).

Anyway, the relevant PSMSL stations in WOD Zone 7513 are:
Canada:
PRINCE RUPERT, station number: 167
QUEEN CHARLOTTE CITY, station number: 829

United States:
ELFIN COVE, station number: 2300
YAKUTAT, station number: 445
SITKA, station number: 426
PORT ALEXANDER, station number: 2299
SKAGWAY, station number: 495
JUNEAU, station number: 405
KETCHIKAN, station number: 225
Click on the station number to view the PSMSL records for that station.

The two stations in that zone which are in Canada show that as you move past and away from the gravitational-pull hinge-point, the sea level stops falling.

Note that Glacier Bay melting is the cause of the sea level fall in WOD Zone 7513 ("The Park is named for its abundant tidewater and terrestrial glaciers, numbering 1,045 in total" - ibid, emphasis added).

IV. The Science

The original published paper that predicted that sea level would fall around the Cryosphere's ice sheets and large glacial fields was revealed by a scientific team led by Harvard Professor J. X. Mitrovica:
Woodward is evidently the first scientist to add robust concepts of physics a la Newton to sea level change science:
To our knowledge, Woodward (1888) was the first to demonstrate that the rapid melting of an ice sheet would lead to a geographically variable sea level change. Woodward (1888) assumed a rigid, non-rotating Earth, and therefore self-gravitation of the surface load was the only contributor to the predicted departure from a geographically uniform (i.e. eustatic) sea level rise. This departure was large and counter-intuitive. Specifically, sea level was predicted to fall within ∼2000 km of a melting ice sheet, and to rise with progressively higher amplitude at greater distances. The physics governing this redistribution is straightforward.
(The Warming Science Commentariat). At least Woodward was not committed to an insane asylum like Semmelweis was (for challenging conventional, but erroneous, dogmatic "science").

But, Woodward was ignored, at least until Mitrovica et al. (see video below) closely studied his work.

Not only did Mitrovica not ignore Woodward, he improved immensely upon Woodward's work, while at the same time giving Woodward credit for his work.
(The World According To Measurements - 5, quoting Dr. Mitrovica). Integrity is an important factor in good science, as the Mitrovica team has shown.

V. The Reality

The reality is that ideas can be more difficult to change than we would expect, as shown by a quick "google" of "what is the main cause of sea level rise."

The common myth is in error because the research of Sir Issac Newton seems to have been forgotten (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 8).

VI. The Conclusion

Build your own Thermosteric Computational System.

The previous post in this series is here.