Friday, February 10, 2017

The Layered Approach To Big Water - 4

Fig. 1
After pausing yesterday for a look at the sea level changes associated with the layers already covered in this series, today we move on to Layer Four and Layer Thirteen (Fig. 1).

The layers are numbered "00" through "17" so as to follow the naming convention of WOD.

Fig. 2 Tide Gauge Station Locations
Now that PSMSL station data has been added to the mix (beginning with yesterday's post), each ocean temperature graph (Fig. 3a, Fig. 4a) is paired with a complimentary PSMSL sea level change graph for that layer (Fig. 3b, Fig. 4b).

The graph of PSMSL tide gauge station locations (Fig. 2) informs us visually that the latitude layers may not always contain the same number of tide gauge stations.

Fig. 3a
The same thing goes for WOD zones, in the sense that zones may not always have the same number of measurements within their latitude, longitude, and depth parameters.

Generally though, there is enough data from the (at maximum) thirty six zones that make up a layer.

Fig. 3b
Also, more measurements are being added to the database as time goes on.

So, using the best datasets available, the graphs made from the data are worthy of consideration for the purposes of this research.

That said, again I see no relevant relation to the temperatures shown in the graph at Fig. 3a when compared with the sea level change in the graph at Fig. 3b.

Nor do I see any relevant relation to the temperatures shown in the graph at Fig. 4a with the sea level change in the graph at Fig. 4b.
Fig. 4a

There is more volatility in the temperatures shown in Fig. 3a and Fig. 4a than there was in previous graphs, but the mixing of temperatures tends to spread the heat among colder water layers.

That does not fit the "thermal expansion" argument well, because the concentration of heat is diminished, thus "thermal contraction" is also a relevant consideration.
Fig. 4b

Ignoring thermal contraction is not a proper scientific technique, because contraction bares competently on the matter being considered.

As we move closer to the poles in the next layers to be considered (3 and 14), there may be even more volatility in the water temperatures, and even more variations to the sea level change.

That is, as we enter the areas that have ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica) and large land based glacier fields (Glacier Bay, Patagonia) we will consider some sea level fall zones, and move volatile ocean currents.

And finally, when we reach layers 0 and 17, I will have data from all of the WOD zones (in the CTD and PFL types) stored in my SQL database.

That will be helpful in future endeavors.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 12

Fig. 1
I. Background

In the midst of the ongoing series "The Layered Approach To Big Water"  I noticed that the PSMSL folks had updated their database on "06 Feb 2017".

Fig. 2
So I downloaded the latest PSMSL datasets (monthly & annual).

Fig. 3a
Then I updated my SQL database of tide gauge station datasets from around the world, looked at the data, and finally generated some graphs.

At the same time, recalling that I had been preparing the Layer Four and Layer Thirteen graphs for the next post in the layers series, I did some comparisons.

Fig. 3b
While doing comparisons, several things caught my eye.

Those things were interesting enough to cause me to think that I should share them with readers.

Fig. 4a
So, today let's review and enhance the thermal expansion hypothesis.

Fig. 4b

II. New PSMSL Data

But first, notice the graphs at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, which were generated with the latest PSMSL datasets I just downloaded.

Fig. 5a
They show an up-tick in sea levels for 2016, which is in sync with the up-tick in temperatures and sea ice loss at both poles during 2016.

Fig. 5b
The graph @ Fig. 1 shows open ocean sea level calculations (red line) as well as the historical measurements at tide gauge stations on the coastlines of the "Golden 23" WOD Zones.

Fig. 6a
The open ocean calculations are generated using Mitrovica et al. observations concerning the highest sea level locations in the open ocean areas, which do not impact coastlines or tide gauges directly.
Fig. 6b

Those values are calculated and graphed to remind us where the sea level measurements along the coastlines come from (tide gauge stations,  constructed and used for centuries, located not where the highest sea levels take place, but where civilization takes place).

Fig. 7a
The graph at Fig. 2 is the sea level change graph generated by using all PSMSL tide gauge station records, including those with severe sea level fall values (see e.g. Proof of Concept - 3, 5).

Fig. 7b
Those values account for the differences in the two graphs at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2.

Fig. 8a
III. The Graph Pairs

Next, so that you can more easily compare the underwater ocean temperatures with the sea level changes at the surface, I have grouped the various latitude layers in "Fig. a", "Fig. b" groups.

Fig. 8b
For example, Layer Five WOD, and its PSMSL sea level changes graph are paired as Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b.

For another example, the Layer Six WOD graph and its SLC graph are paired as Fig. 4a and Fig. 4b.

This pattern goes on down to Layer Twelve at Fig. 10a and Fig. 10b.

Fig. 9a
The "Fig a" types end up on the left side of the page, and the "Fig. b" types end up on the right side of the page.

Fig. 9b
This configuration puts all of the WOD ocean temperature graphs as "Fig. a" types, and all of the PSMSL sea level graphs as "Fig. b" types, which I hope makes them easier to compare and contemplate.

Finally, getting down to brass tacks, can you see that the sea level at the various latitude layers seem to have no coherent relationship with the subsurface ocean temperatures at that same latitude layer?

Fig. 10a
What I am getting at is that the "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise in the 19th and 20th centuries" hypothesis does not match the picture the datasets present for our consideration.

Fig. 10b
For example, the steep sea level rise at latitude Layer Five is not matched with comparable ocean temperature rises at any level, or at all levels for that matter when we closely compare Fig. 3a with Fig. 3b.

When you compare them, remember to match the years in the "Fig a" and "Fig b" graphs, because the PSMSL tide gauge records can go back way further than the WOD records.

That said, still the year by year picture presented in the two graphs, IMO, indicate that thermal expansion and contraction are not "the" or even "a" major player in the picture.

Greenland, Antarctica, and large land based glacier fields which are now, and have been for a long time, melting into the ocean, are the major factors (i.e. displacement).

In second place is ghost-water (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

That boils down to melt water and ice entering the ocean.

But more than just that, the loss of ice mass equates to a loss of gravitational pull on ocean water around the coasts of the land where the ice sheets are located.

They are freed from the ice sheets' gravitational power, to then be relocated in the direction of the Equator (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4).

The massive amounts of global warming heat is, for the very most part, being absorbed by the oceans.

It is, by various mechanisms, mixing with the seemingly inexhaustible supply of cold ocean waters below the warm upper level.

This is nothing less than observable evidence of the dynamic of the second law of thermodynamics, which tells us that heat flows in the direction from hot or warm toward cold or cool.

If there are impediments to that, in terms of salinity and the like, the temperature measurements reflected in the graphs depict the fact that there are several other mechanisms which force various degrees of heat exchanges.

The temperatures go up and the temperatures go down in these deep layers of ocean water (Evidence of Deep-ocean Heat Uptake, Meltwater in Ocean Depths).

The WOD graphs (the "Fig a" graphs) show that heat exchanges are causing temperature changes over the years, and across all these increasingly well measured depths of the oceans.

The PSMSL graphs (the "Fig b" graphs) show us that this is not reflected in any observable coherent manner in terms of comparable sea level changes.

IV. Conclusion

Something else is driving it, and that something else is melting and disintegrating ice sheets and land glacier fields.

We call that something else the degenerating cryosphere.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

The Layered Approach To Big Water - 3

Fig. 1 Layers 5,12 @ WOD Database Map
Today we are taking a look at Layer Five and Layer Twelve (Fig. 1).

Perhaps we should review why we are incrementally moving our observation from the Equator toward the poles.

It is because, generally speaking, the temperatures will tend to emerge from similar environments, which is  better for comparisons, because we are comparing temperatures at latitudes with equal distances from the Equator.

Fig. 2 Layer Five
We should perhaps also recall why we are looking at the deep water instead of the shallow water.

Well, it is because "that is where the money is" as the bank robber said when asked why she robbed banks.

Why we research the deep water is indicated by a scientific paper in Nature:
"Observational datasets derived from the Argo float data and other sources indicate that the ocean heat content above about 700 m did not increase appreciably during the 2000s, a time when the rise in surface temperatures also stalled. Hiatus periods with little or no surface warming trend have occurred before in observations, and are seen as well in climate-model simulations. So where does the excess heat in the climate system go if not to
Fig. 3  Layer Twelve
increase surface temperatures or appreciably increase upper-ocean heat content?

Tracing changes in global deep-ocean heat content indicated by the model results would require better observed ocean heat-content analyses. In particular, observations of deep-ocean temperatures, which are not generally available now but are planned under Argo, also limit our ability to accurately calculate the sea-level rise contribution due to thermal expansion that depends on ocean heat-content changes.
Examination of ocean heat-content trends by basin ... indicates qualitatively similar results to the global ocean, with decreases in heat-content trends above 300 m and increases below 300 m for the hiatus periods compared with all other periods.
(Deep-ocean Heat Uptake, 2011, emphasis added). The paper points out that the greatest heat sink is in the deep waters of the ocean (thus, the most likely place to look for any "missing" heat).

Since more and more deep ocean observations from ARGO and other sources have been making their way into the WOD database, we use it for our datasets.

Anyway, the paper quoted above bolsters the Dredd Blog hypothesis that the ocean temperatures deep enough to have temperatures below 4 degrees C are vast expanses where heat fluctuation will impact ocean volume, density, etc. (Water is the most important exception to the general rule, At 4 °C water expands on heating or cooling).

This is discussed at more length in another series (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

In the two layers depicted at Fig. 1, together with their temperature variations graphed at Fig. 2 and Fig. 3, we see that something is changing the temperatures from time to time (and therefore there is both expansion and contraction).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here

Monday, February 6, 2017

The Layered Approach To Big Water - 2

Fig. 1 World Ocean Database
We are moving closer to the polar regions (The Layered Approach To Big Water).

Today, we look at Layer Six (Fig. 2) and Layer Eleven (Fig. 3).

They are outlined with red lines on the World Ocean Database (WOD) map (Fig. 1).

Each WOD zone rectangle on the WOD map is a 10 degree by 10 degree area, and in terms of latitude and longitude, the WOD zone's location is revealed by the zone number itself, because each one of three sections of the number can be combined to indicate where those zones are geographically located.

Fig. 2 Layer Six
For example, in Layer Six, WOD zone 1203 is quadrant '1' (Western N. Hemisphere), the lower latitude is 20N ('2') and the lesser longitude is 30E ('03').

Add 10 to the lower latitude number to derive the upper latitude (20N + 10 = 30N), and add 10 to the lesser longitude to derive the larger longitude (30E + 10 = 40E).

So, the complete WOD Zone 1203 rectangle is latitude 20-30N by longitude 30-40E.

Fig. 3  Layer Eleven
A nifty numbering system eh?

Anyway, comparing the 6 layers we have looked at so far, the temperatures at various levels show some temperature oscillations that are strong, but most are relatively uniform in appearance in the lower levels.

That can be misleading, if we forget that those temperature changes in the deep water do not happen as a function of the water magically warming (remember the 2nd law of thermodynamics).

Some exterior phenomenon changes the temperature, such as mixing of warmer layers by the dynamic of the 2nd law of thermodynamics (warm flows to cold), currents, hot spots on the ocean bottom (e.g. hot springs, volcanoes), or other forced mixing.

And, to the point of the thermal expansion and contraction series (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11), these temperature changes cause both expansion and contraction.

Heretofore, the contraction dynamic has been left out of the scientific literature as if there was no such thing.

We are hopefully changing that.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan

Have you finished the wall yet?
I. Foreward

I thought I would continue the phrase I coined during the Bush II Administration ("Bulshitistan"), however, I though it should be placed in a series rather than in random places in comments and the like.

The language spoken in Bullshitistan is designated as BS-01.5572, but in scientific circles it is called "double-speak," a language which has been studied incessantly (Propaganda Is A "Toxic Asset", quoting Professor Lutz).

II. Swamped

It is in honor of the quickest draw in the swamp:
It took former President George W. Bush 1,205 days to reach a majority disapproval rating. Former President Barack Obama crossed that threshold in 936 days.

And President Donald Trump did it in just over a week.

The Republican, who was sworn in on Jan. 20 as the least popular president in at least 40 years, hit majority disapproval in a record eight days, a new
"Dood, that was an awesome EO !"
Gallup poll of 1,500 Americans finds. As of Saturday, 51 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump.

Trump’s majority disapproval rating comes after a tumultuous first week in office that was capped off with his widely protested executive order banning immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries. After the president’s first day in office, millions of women and men protested his agenda in the Women’s March on Washington and sister marches around the world.
(President Trump Smashes Record for Getting Majority of Americans to Disapprove of Him). What do you expect from the author of The Art of the Deal?

III. The High Priestess

The high-priestess of BS-01.5572, The ConWay, wrestles with her tongue in cheek to cross the eyes and dot the teeth of her victims:
With doublespeak, banks don't have "bad loans" or "bad debts"; they have
The Tommy
"nonperforming assets" or "nonperforming credits" which are "rolled over" or "rescheduled."

Corporations never lose money; they just experience "negative cash flow," "deficit enhancement," "net profit revenue deficiencies," or "negative contributions to profits."
(ibid). The ConWay graduated from The Donald University with the highest honor, "Silver Tongued Devil", and is a close ideological descendant of The Patron Saint of The Plutocracy (Ayn Rand: Patron Saint of The Plutocracy, 2, 3, 4).

Currently,  The ConWay is casting aspersion spells on those who are making fun of her for running off the rails to temporarily make things up in violation of the fundamental rule (BS-01.5572.Rule.001): "only things that the base will believe can be made up out of whole cloth" (Bowling Green massacre? Kellyanne Conway has taken alt facts up a notch).

IV. So Called

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan (SOB) are constantly at war with the  So-Called Realm, (SCR, a place where facts and law matter).

SOB has recently given SCR a "take that" motion, which backfired (U.S. appeals court denies request to restore Trump's immigration ban).

One thing to note is that the Federal Court of Appeals is not paranoid about lies (It Takes A Culture To Raise A Compulsive Liar), so SOB will take that into consideration (according to the SOB rule-book, generally, the next step is to threaten SCR with an invasion).

Stay tuned.

The next post in this series is here.

Yep. Desolation Row ...