|Fig. A Dredd Blog Zones|
The mantra that signals usage of the bathtub model is the phrase "global mean average sea level rise."
A sea level expert explains: "By taking the [global] average you're assuming something, and you're assuming it implicitly. You're assuming what we call the bathtub model" (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, quoting Dr. Jerry Mitrovica @31:14 of the video in that post).
The bathtub model is actually a cultural myth that damages comprehensive understanding of the real nature of sea level change (SLC).
It is a meme bandied about by both those with and those without a substantial scientific foundation.
It is even bandied about by those who should understand it better (William L. Chameides is Dean of Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment).
That member of the warming commentariat, like way too many others, has yet to learn that gravity has a major part to play (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4).
That phenomenon has yet to be perfectly quantified even though it is a major player in SLC.
Anyway, I have been demonstrating the absurdity of the bath tub model by publishing graphs of Dredd Blog Zones (see Fig. A at the top-left of this post).
Those zones are very small areas (compared to the entire globe) where one can focus on the various and sundry differences of SLC by observing tide gauge station records.
Recently, regular readers and I have been looking at 21 of those zones in terms of their basic structure.
That basic structure is individual tide gauge station records within those zones, but more than that, I used records begun in the 1800s.
Those 21 zones were presented in a recent post in that format, which looks like an explosion in a spaghetti factory.
So, today I have presented graphs of those 21 zones in a mean average presentation,
Regular readers can thereby see how global mean average glosses over the wild dynamics of actual reality SLC in global mean average scenarios.
Compare the following 21 zones that are presented in mean average mode with those 21 zones in single tide gauge records mode (yesterday's post is On The Natural Variability of Tide Gauge Records):
Fig. 1) Zone: AD.SW.SE, 38 stations, begin year: 1858Each of those zones is represented in today's graphs, in terms of RLR mm, with a single
Fig. 2) Zone: AG.NE.SE, 31 stations, begin year: 1899
Fig. 3) Zone: AG.SE.NE, 11 stations, begin year: 1855
Fig. 4) Zone: AH.NE.SE, 36 stations, begin year: 1897
Fig. 5) Zone: AH.SE.NE, 31 stations, begin year: 1856
Fig. 6) Zone: AH.SE.SW, 29 stations, begin year: 1898
Fig. 7) Zone: AI.NE.NE, 35 stations, begin year: 1858
Fig. 8) Zone: AI.NE.SE, 32 stations, begin year: 1807
Fig. 9) Zone: AI.SE.NE, 29 stations, begin year: 1882
Fig. 10) Zone: AI.SE.SE, 20 stations, begin year: 1881
Fig. 11) Zone: AJ.NW.NW, 54 stations, begin year: 1811
Fig. 12) Zone: AJ.NW.NE, 29 stations, begin year: 1858
Fig. 13) Zone: AJ.NW.SW, 33 stations, begin year: 1833
Fig. 14) Zone: AJ.SW.NW, 38 stations, begin year: 1884
Fig. 15) Zone: AJ.SE.NW, 6 stations, begin year: 1874
Fig. 16) Zone: AL.SW.SW, 71 stations, begin year: 1894
Fig. 17) Zone: AQ.NW.NE, 3 stations, begin year: 1882
Fig. 18) Zone: AQ.NW.SW, 8 stations, begin year: 1878
Fig. 19) Zone: AQ.NW.SE, 9 stations, begin year: 1882
Fig. 20) Zone: A2.NE.NE, 4 stations, begin year: 1897
Fig. 21) Zone: A3.NE.NW, 10 stations, begin year: 1886
Yesterday's graphs of the same zones have one line for each tide gauge station SLC history in the particular zone being graphed.
In today's post, each tide gauge station's record is averaged into a zone mean average line, rather than having up to 71 lines for one graph.
The split frame view in today's graphs are the same mean average, it is just that the top line is a PSMSL RLR mm value, while the lower one is the actual SLC in millimeters, of the upper PSMSL RLR value line.
In other words, the subtraction has been done for you.
When an area is small like this, zone mean average is not as destructive to the understanding of what is going on as it is when the entire globe of the Earth is averaged into one value..
The remaining graphs:
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.