Sunday, June 3, 2018

The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 5

Fig. 1 Hemispheric
Fig. 2 Golden 23
I. SLR vs. SLC

The PSMSL folks updated their dataset on May 21.

I have been busy on the thermal expansion & contraction realm, so I just now updated my PSMSL SQL server.

The graphs at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2
were generated with the additional data from PSMSL which deals with sea level records made by tide gauge stations around the world.

The graph at Fig. 2 is the pattern of a tide gauge station group originally called "the Golden 23" (Golden 23 Zones Meet TEOS-10).

The graph at Fig. 1 features the Golden 23 compared with tide gauges in the Northern Hemisphere and tide gauge stations in the Southern Hemisphere.

As you can see, the golden 23 shows a higher sea level rise than the other two do.

Today I want to explain the main difference between sea level change recorded by the Golden 23 as compared to the two hemispheres.

II. There Is This Thingy Called Sea Level Fall

There is a disservice involved with the reason for the difference.

Basically, we who know both up and down call that the bathtub model problem (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2, 3, 4).

The golden 23 stations do not utilize tide gauge stations from areas with high sea level fall (Proof of Concept, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

The main focus of the golden 23 is on sea level rise, and it gives a better "heads-up" than the bathtub model does.

One main reason is that when the sea level in areas around ice sheets at the poles fall, it means that the water that was there has now been relocated (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4; The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

Unfortunately it is relocated by various dynamics of the Earth's rotation to the more populated areas of the planet (The King of King Tides Approaches - 2).

III. The High And Low Of It

To explain it more quickly, several  high and several low areas of sea level change are presented below, with links to the PSMSL tide gauge stations so you can check them out.

High sea level rise:
rlrMM = 8216.25 (1216.25mm; 3.99032 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 1002

rlrMM = 8125.62 (1125.62mm; 3.69298 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 1593

rlrMM = 8060 (1060mm; 3.47769 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 2126

rlrMM = 8039.92 (1039.92mm; 3.41181 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 1345

rlrMM = 7986.5 (986.5mm; 3.23655 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 1364

rlrMM = 7892.71 (892.71mm; 2.92884 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 2209

rlrMM = 7608.58 (608.58mm; 1.99665 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 145

rlrMM = 7603.67 (603.67mm; 1.98054 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 808
Significant sea level fall:
rlrMM = 6363.38 (636.62mm; 2.08865 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 1343

rlrMM = 6325.92 (674.08mm; 2.21155 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 1061

rlrMM = 6320.33 (679.67mm; 2.22989 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 126

rlrMM = 6300 (700mm; 2.29659 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 118

rlrMM = 6262.33 (737.67mm; 2.42018 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 405

rlrMM = 6221.78 (778.22mm; 2.55322 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 1354

rlrMM = 6189.04 (810.96mm; 2.66063 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 495

rlrMM = 6115.42 (884.58mm; 2.90217 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 144

rlrMM = 5954.5 (1045.5mm; 3.43012 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 137

rlrMM = 7634.25 (634.25mm; 2.08087 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 122

rlrMM = 5903.67 (1096.33mm; 3.59688 ft.) below median 7000mm
station = 1858

rlrMM = 7591.33 (591.33mm; 1.94006 ft.) above median 7000mm
station = 99

IV. Conclusion

The news is impacting property prices (the buck stops at the shore line)  in already impacted areas (Sea level rise is pushing coastal property owners to move to higher ground).

Local governments are suing Oil-Qaeda in courts on both coasts (Oilfluenza, Affluenza, and Disgorgement, 2, 3).

Populated areas need to know specific sea level changes that will take place in their specific geographical area, such as latitude & longitude, because it is not the same everywhere:
"A rise of only 1.6 feet ... puts 150 million people globally and $35 trillion assets at risk in 20 of the world’s most vulnerable and fastest growing port cities ... In the United States, of the 25 most densely populated and rapidly growing U.S. counties, 23 are along a coast. Low-lying coastal areas are particularly susceptible to storm surge and flooding from torrential precipitation, and the effects on communities can be catastrophic."
(Resilience of Infrastructure Systems to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Areas: Impacts, Adaptation Measures, and Implementation Challenges). They can't competently prepare for what is going to "generically happen on average" to everyone every where.

As the high lows in Section III above show, the difference in sea level change can be phenomenal.

Engineers must know precisely what to try to adapt to.

The previous post in this series is here.

1 comment:

  1. "The findings support a validation of both hypotheses and suggest the potential existence of consumer preferences that are based, in part, on perceptions of flood risk and/or observations of flooding. These preferences and perceptions are anticipated to be amplified by climate change in a manner that reinforces the proposition that climate change impacts will affect the marketability and valuation of property with varying degrees of environmental exposure and resilience functionality. Uncovering these empirical relationships is a critical first step for understanding the occurrence and parameters of Climate Gentrification." (link)

    The buck stops at the shoreline eh?