Saturday, October 3, 2015

Agnotology: The Surge - 18

Fig. 1 Swapping the signs is not a solution
Sea level change (SLC) is one area where those who do not look deep enough will add to the fantasy most people are currently swayed by.

Australians are no exception to the myths any more than people elsewhere are.

A post by an Australian blogger reveals the problems caused by shallow analysis (Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!).

Agnotology allows the erroneous meme to propagate (Climate Common Sense: Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!, Global warming: Australia is Sinking!).

What generated the falsehood in the first place was an improper technique:
Horrified, as I live on the coast I thought I would check the BOM tide gauges at Sydney's Botany Bay and Melbourne's Port Lonsdale to see
Fig. 2 PSMSL Graph For Sydney
how the alarmist predictions were faring at Australia's two largest cities.

Botany Bay had a broken record so I used the last 12 years with a contiguous set of readings and found the mean tide levels had actually fallen over the period. This is good news for Tim Flannery who has a waterfront home in the area.
(Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!, emphasis added). Rule Number One is to "use a reliable tide gauge station" that has "at least 30 years" of reliable data records.

Of the 81 Australian (AUS) tide gauge stations registered at PSMSL (List of Stations), I only use the 21 which qualify by being in accord with Rule Number One (60 do not qualify).

 "Botany Bay", allegedly used by the Australian blogger, doesn't even appear on the station list of PSMSL (which is a sure sign that any data from there is spurious).

Fig. 3
A good tide gauge station in Sydney is shown in Fig. 2 (link to PSMSL page also provided).

It is the Fort Denison 2 station where records are available from 1915 to 2014.

They show 7011 RLR millimeters in 1915 and 7171 RLR millimeters in 2014, indicating sea level rise (SLR) at this time.
Fig. 4

In Fig. 3 another Australian location, Victor Harbor, is shown with SLR, and Fig. 4 shows another Australian location, New Castle V, which has a close latitude and longitude to the Sydney staton (Fig. 2).

It also shows a clear SLR scenario, so I fear what would happen if the Australian blogger were to represent to someone he was selling his house to that "no worries, the sea level here in Sydney is falling lower and lower as the years go by."

His blog is a record that he believes it and has even told "Tim Flannery" the good news about his reading of a tide gauge that is not one the reputable site PSMSL.

Misrepresentation is generally actionable in common law countries:
Misrepresentation is the giving of false information by one party (or her or his agent) to the other before the contract is made, which induces them to make the contract. If you make a contract in reliance on a misrepresentation and suffer loss as a result, you can cancel the contract or claim damages.
(Australian Contract Law, cf. Misleading or Deceptive Conduct). Denialism is one thing but when a person imposes it on others, in some situations there can be legal issues.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

New Type of SLC Detection Model - 6

Fig. 1 a section of the "np" zone
Today I want to discuss some strange tide gauge data from the "np," or north polar zone.

It could mean that gravity loss is like ice sheet loss in the sense that it does not take place uniformly.

For example, if a section of an ice sheet melts or calves into the sea in one area of the ice sheet, that mostly affects the gravity in that area.

Fig. 2 red square is where history/future meet
The example of that scenario I want to talk about today, is the tide gauge in  Reykjavik, Iceland.

First, notice the "np" area east of Greenland, and mostly north of Europe (Fig. 1).

Then glance at the graphs one would likely expect for tide gauges in the "np" zone (Fig. 2 - Fig. 5).
Fig. 3
 These are at latitudes and longitudes in the "np" zone, specifically they generally lie to the north of Europe in Norwegian areas. 
Fig. 4

Areas where sea level fall (SLF) is expected as the Greenland ice sheet melts and calves into the sea.

That notion is shown in Fig. 7 where the ice-sheet-mass loss leads to SLF (dark blue area around Greenland).

But, we must not forget that these are not single events taking place in a vacuum.

Fig. 5
No, all of the ice sheets are melting, calving, and having their own particular impact on sea level change (SLC), whether their impact is sea level rise (SLR), or is SLF instead.

I think the jaggedness of the graph lines is indicative of the push and pull, ebb and flow, between and among the different ice sheet locations.

The big players are, of course, Greenland and Antarctica, however, yesterday we saw that local ice caps and glaciers in Alaska have a large impact on SLC there, even dominating the picture.

That scenario is also likely happening in some of the other ice cap and glacier areas in the "np" zone.

If you will notice Fig. 8, and focus on the bottom graphic, it displays several similar locations for Glacier Bay type activity.
Fig. 6

One such area is Svalbard (Wikipedia), another is Iceland (Wikipedia), and yet another is Norway (Wikipedia).

The take-home from this is "be careful to consider all of the influences" in areas where several local contributors are involved.

Greenland and Antarctica are not the only games in town when we look at local or regional areas.

Again, that was made clear yesterday, in the post showing the strong influence of a local cryosphere area on both SLF and SLR (Proof of Concept - 3).

Fig. 7
Now, with that in mind let's talk about Reykjavik (Fig. 6), noticing first that the red square separates the historical, official record from the software model that projects a conservative future SLC ("Dredd's IPCC clone").

(Probably a wrong projection.)

It is in an area where Greenland, Norway, Svalbard, and its own ice cap and glaciers exert influence.

I put a blue line on the track which begins at the year 1957, where the RLR millimeter scale level was 6996, and extended it over to 1995, when the sea level was 7000 (4 millimeter difference).

I drew another line at the 2014 red square, where the history of that tide gauge ends in this graph, then over to where the millimeter level is 7153 (153 millimeters difference, which is ~4.5 inches).

Contrast that with Skagway's ~4 feet of SLF (Proof of Concept - 3) and we can say that on the local scene, things happen very differently in locations with different significant influences.

Reykjavik is surrounded by influences coming from the north, south, east, and west.

Its jagged and abrupt historical track is indicative of a volatile area:
Michael Mann of Penn State and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute
Fig. 8
for Climate Impact Research say that to see a pattern like this, in an otherwise record hot year, is a sign that the Atlantic ocean’s so-called “meridional overturning circulation” or AMOC — which is driven by differences in ocean temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic — may be slowing down.

Indeed, they say this fits nicely with a study they published earlier this year, which found an “exceptional” slowdown in the circulation over the course of the last century, and suggested that the dramatic melting of Greenland, by injecting large volumes of freshwater into the ocean, may be the cause.

So are they right?
(Everything you need to know about the surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic ocean). There is still some uncertainty about the cause or causes of the cold blob up there near the tip of Greenland, south of Reykjavik.

Currents and water temperature also have an effect on SLC, so this current Reykjavik anomaly needs to be looked at from several angles.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Proof of Concept - 3

Fig. 1 Glacier Bay gravity influence
Today let's look at the "West Coast Group."

Yesterday, we looked at the "East Coast Group."

So, today let's look at a different group in more ways than one, because the West Coast Group is a group that enhances the evidence for the "proof of concept" concerning the impact of ice sheet mass-induced-gravity on sea level fall (SLF).

Fig. 2 More SLF near Glacier Bay
There is no serious doubt that gravity causes the daily tides in tidal zones.

But, there may be some doubt about ice sheet and glacier mass generating a type of gravity influence that causes both sea level rise (SLR) as well as SLF.

The theory is that ice-sheet-mass created gravity raises sea level near the coasts, then
Fig. 3
lowers that same sea level as those ice sheets and glaciers melt or calve into the sea (The Gravity of Sea Level Change).

The West Coast Group is composed of the tide gauge stations near Glacier Bay that over the years shown are and have been experiencing the influence of the melting of massive glaciers.

As we move away from them, to look at stations further and further away from Glacier Bay, we see the SLF becoming SLR eventually.

Fig. 4
The dividing line is called the "hinge point," the place where SLF ends and SLR begins.

It is a moving target, because it can move further away from or closer to the center of ice mass gravity as that ice sheet increases, or melts and calves into the sea.

The sea water that was once pulled to the coast by the ice mass gravity, flows away, as it were, to add to SLR far away from where it came from.

Fig. 5 A bit north of the hinge point
We see that the hinge point has moved toward South East Alaska or coastal British Columbia, and as long as ice keeps melting and calving into the Gulf of Alaska, it will continue south in that area.

At this time the hinge point is between Ketchikan (Fig. 5) and Prince Rupert (Fig. 6) as indicated by the diminished SLF in Ketchikan, and the clear SLR in Prince Rupert.

Both of those tide gauge stations are near the border between Alaska and British Columbia,  so the hinge point is near the border between them at this time.
Fig. 6 South of the hinge point

Thus, the gradual increase in SLF north of the hinge point is expected, as is the increasing SLR south of the hinge point.

The SLR phenomenon continues as we move into the states of Washington and California.

Fig. 7
At some point, the Glacier Bay influence subsides.

It will be replaced by the influences of Greenland and Antarctica ice mass loss.

That happens as those prime sources of sea level change (SLC) lose their ice mass and ice gravity.

As melt water and ice berg calving take place they experience eventual redistribution not
Fig. 8
only by wind, wave, and currents, but also by the Earth's rotation, axial relocation, and gravity.

Those influences can be reviewed again (New Type of SLC Detection Model - 4).

The gist of it is that one area will generate a quantity of SLF, while the other two areas will generate an opposite quantity of SLR, so the  three quantities eventually mix into a sum total.

Fig. 9
Near the coasts of the ice sheets the ice mass gravitational influences are predominate in all cases, but that influence weakens as the hinge point moves away from the ice sheet.

It is not very knowable when those things will take place, because the ice sheets are all on their own schedule, not on the software model schedule.

With the East Coast Group and the West Coast Group we cover an enormous population
Fig. 10
that will feel the impact of SLC over the next few years, and in fact are experiencing those impacts right now (You Are Here - 5).

The catastrophic impacts are also on the way, and they are far more dire than the "Bangladesh is flooding" diversions spewed by the sleepy main stream media moguls (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

Fig. 11
Anyway, this post is getting too long, so San Diego (Fig. 11) finishes up the West Coast Group, and finishes up today's post.

I hope you can see some of the validity of the ice sheet gravity theory as set forth by scientists spanning a time frame beginning circa 1888  (On the West Side of Zero).

It is still being ignored by the bulk of SLC scientists today, but doing that will imperil some of the areas whose SLC will be way off from the fabled global mean average SLR.

Thus, the invasion will catch way too many people off guard (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3, 4).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

New Type of SLC Detection Model - 5

Fig. 1 East Coast Group - Northern
Well, the software model is working, and I have the first victim group identified.

It is called the "East Coast Group."

It is currently composed of: Atlantic City, Baltimore, Boston, Cape May, Charleston I, Chesapeake Bay, Halifax, New York (The Battery), and New York (Montauk), however, if and when necessary more can be added.

The graphs generated with the new model are included in today's post.
Fig. 2

There is no "smoothing" of data, since it is better just to be totally real, leaving out the few unknown quantities, which are marked in the data as "-9999".

The projection or prediction is added onto the last year of history, continuing with either sea level fall (SLF) or sea level rise (SLR), depending on how the logic identifies the flow of data.

Fig. 3
Some tide gauge stations are close to being both SLF and SLR, so some may be analyzed incorrectly at first, but I haven't noticed any yet.

We can now move on to additional groups, one for sure will be the "West Coast Group," which will be composed of tide gauge stations from Glacier Bay, AK down to San Diego, CA.

That one is cool because it has both SLF and SLR areas to analyze and then graph out.

Anyway, the transition from history to future projection is quite seamless and more readable that way, at least in the sense of "it looks real."
Fig. 4

Let me relax anyone who notices that the SLR values are low compared to previous ones ("that is so IPCC Dredd").

That is because I have not added the acceleration logic, which takes a lot of additional factors into consideration.

At this stage the continuum is based on the plain historical acceleration without anticipating surges, doubling, and the like.

That is coming.

Fig. 5
One thing that is interesting in the current code used to generate graphing data, is that it gives rise to the hypothesis that the jaggedness is caused by offsetting influences of Greenland vs. Antarctica.

They are not in sync by some magic ice melting manager, so they melt and calve ice bergs randomly.

Thus, there is no smooth record, like a smooth ski-slope pattern, for us to ponder.

We are watching real-world history, real-Earth events, that have and will continue to take place over a long period of time.

Fig. 6
The projection looks more realistic than the old ski-slope smooth graphs that the Dredd Blog software model did in past projection graphs.

I cloned the pattern in the history by first recording the changes in increase and decrease, then I carried that "DNA" into the projection stream, but increasing it or decreasing it along the lines of the historical continuum.

Fig. 7
The pattern on the east coast of the is unmistakeable, and as regular readers know, the pattern is in the direction of big trouble.

The east coast is known to be one of the top spots for SLR on the planet.

That is just the way it is, so the cards that have been dealt to those American victims by Oil-Qaeda, the dealer, do not a winning hand make (read Dredd Blog posts on the Series Post Tab, under "Sea Level Change").
Fig. 8

Another feature that needs to be added for some of the stations near SLF zones such as Glacier Bay, Greenland, and Antarctica, is a switch to SLF from SLR.

Halifax (Fig. 1) is an example that is likely to have a change from SLR to SLF mode (or a levelling out) as the "hinge" around Greenland expands outward as Greenland loses gravity due to losing ice sheet mass (The Gravity of Sea Level Change).

Fig. 9
Halifax is an SLR station today, but the hinge is approaching it and it will begin to see SLF sometime in the future.

BTW, if you want to estimate the SLR quantity in feet, divide the RLR millimeter value by 304.8 (304.8mm = 1ft.).

For example, sea level at New York / The Battery (Fig. 5) rose from 6698mm in 1856 to 7144 at the end of 2014 (7144 − 6698 = 446; 446 ÷ 304.8 = 1.5 ft.).

Anyway, this post is long enough, so let me close for today.

You have been introduced to tide gauge stations along the east coast, the East Coast Group, which Dredd Blog will continue to monitor from time to time.

For example, updating databases and graphs when the "future months of 2015" end to become the history year 2015.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Monday, September 28, 2015

The Eyelash Lily

Fig. 1. ChristieLM's photo.
I went to the party before I started this post.

Aren't you glad?

Anyway, I am partying because the projection software is moving along.

Yes, the sea level rise (SLR) and sea level fall (SLF) projection code is hooked up and working !

Now, one must decide to smooth it, or not, and if so, what smoother?

But that great smoothness looks jagged when 100 years or so are compacted into a small space, so, I like the way the old tide gauges jumped around, jagged, moving, like the oceans really are.

So my "smoother" is just another word for "let it be."
Fig. 2 To see Yakutat history only, click HERE

After checking the ups and downs of the history of a station, it continues a similar, but never-the-less future projection of the past.

Fig. 3 Yakutat no -9999, no smoothing
What I like is the same look and feel of the history characteristics, but I am going to implement some smoothing code soon. [h/t Tom[

Anyway, hope you enjoy the the "eyelash lily" (ChristieLM calls it "Spider Lily"), so I defer.

I am tired and have something to watch.

A poem follows:

Rubber Cement
by ChristieLM

Rubber Cement
rubber cement
What does it mean ?? (circa 1960)

It could have a new name.
Another oxymoron
Like: congressional intelligence. (circa 2015)
Washington outsider.
Plutocratic democracy.
Political correctness.
Corporate concern.