Thursday, March 31, 2016

Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder - 4

Are you in good hands with Oil-State?
Regular readers of Dredd Blog already know about the conspiracy featured in this series (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder, 2, 3).

Regular readers also know that I have been relentless in pointing out the madness of the epigovernment (a nickname for the Oil-Qaeda, MOMCOM cabal) in various Dredd Blog series over the years (eg. Epigovernment: The New Model, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11MOMCOM: The Private Parts, 2, 3, 4, 5; MOMCOM's Mass Suicide & Murder Pact, 2, 3, 4, 5; Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

Now the world finds out:
A massive leak of confidential documents has for the first time exposed the true extent of corruption within the oil industry, implicating dozens of leading companies, bureaucrats and politicians in a sophisticated global web of bribery and graft.
Corruption in oil production - one of the world's richest industries and one that touches us all through our reliance on petrol - fuels inequality, robs people of their basic needs and causes social unrest in some of the world's poorest countries. It was among the factors that prompted the Arab Spring.
(Oil-Qaeda MOMOCOM corruption conspiracy, cf. same 2, same 3, same 4). Perhaps this "discovery" is a reason for this dynamic (State AGs Vow To Tackle Climate Change And Fossil Fuel Industry Fraud)?

They are the Number One Public Enemy and are responsible for our demise (The Damaged Global Climate System, 2, 3, 4, 5).

The conspiracy is real (On The Origin of "Conspiracy Theory", 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

Make no mistake about it, we are in grave danger:
The FBI, U.S. Department of Justice and anti-corruption police in Britain and Australia have launched a joint investigation into revelations of a massive global bribery racket in the oil industry.

The news comes as Fairfax Media and The Huffington Post reveal that U.S. giant Halliburton and its former subsidiary Kellogg, Brown & Root are embroiled in the Unaoil bribes-for-contracts scandal through their operations in former Soviet states.

The biggest leak of confidential files in the history of the oil industry also unveils rampant corruption inside Italian oil giant Eni in many of the countries in which the firm has been contracted by national governments to manage their oilfields.
(FBI And Justice Department Probing Unaoil Bribery Scandal). Managing the way we die is their number one business (A Closer Look At MOMCOM's DNA - 2).

A little view of "those who take care of us":
Over a year ago, an anonymous source contacted the Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) and submitted encrypted internal documents from Mossack Fonseca, a Panamanian law firm that sells anonymous offshore companies around the world. These shell firms enable their owners to cover up their business dealings, no matter how shady.

In the months that followed, the number of documents continued to grow far beyond the original leak. Ultimately, SZ acquired about 2.6 terabytes of data, making the leak the biggest that journalists had ever worked with. The source wanted neither financial compensation nor anything else in return, apart from a few security measures.

The data provides rare insights into a world that can only exist in the shadows. It proves how a global industry led by major banks, legal firms, and asset management companies secretly manages the estates of the world’s rich and famous: from politicians, Fifa officials, fraudsters and drug smugglers, to celebrities and professional athletes.
(HISTORIC LEAK. 214K Shell Companies. 11.5M Documents).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

The Ghost-Water Constant - 5

Fig. 1 Glaciers in East Turkey (blue circle)
In the Black Sea post (Zone AJ, Quadrant SE, Sub-quadrant NW) I ran into what others have run up against when pondering tide gauge records.

I was fooled while trying to figure out the perplexing tide gauge history in the PSMSL database for the Black Sea area ("4.1 ft. of SLC ???").

A regular reader wondered about the precipitation records available, which would have an impact on outflow from the Danube, Dniestr, and other rivers flowing into the Black Sea.

I researched that issue then added to that post a Section V. concerning that issue.

But that did not solve some of the mystery and flux in the tide gauge record which caused me to keep pondering.
Fig. 2 Georgia Glaciers (BlackSea)

I hypothesized in my thinking that perhaps melting glaciers were feeding the major rivers that outflowed into the Black Sea.

Nope (read that post if you haven't yet).

Finally, it dawned on me that I had forgotten to consider ghost water (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4).

As it turns out, a number of countries have beaches along the Black Sea.

Fig. 3 Caucus Mountains (Black Sea)
And, to top it off, the Caucus Mountains are not far enough from those beaches in some areas to be irrelevant (Fig. 3).

This analysis is not completely solved, but the part of the puzzle that was right in front of my eyes (but I could not see it), led me to realize what others go through.

I should have known better, having read about ghost-water, having written about it, and having put forth a hypothesis about the magnitude of the influence of ghost-water, and of course after having seen proof of it (Proof of Concept - 3, Proof of Concept - 5).

Anyway, a lot of people have been, like me, the blind man in the group of blind men around the Elephant (The Warming Science Commentariat).

I am still on the case, pondering the various hinge lines (The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points) and gravity of this situation in the Black Sea (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4).

I just can't seem to get away from it.

A few examples of Black Sea glacial reality:
Kluhor (Klukhor) Glacier is in the Caucasus Mountains west of Mount Elbrus. It drains into the Teberda River and then the Kuban River and eventually Krasnodar Reservoir and the Black Sea. The Krasnodar Reservoir is primarily a flood control and irrigation management reservoir. Here we examine three glaciers each experiencing the familiar pattern in the Caucasus Mountains of retreat with expansion of proglacial lakes. As the area and number of glacier is reduced, the number and area of alpine lakes is increasing, note Khimsa Glacier, Georgia, Psysh Glaciers, Russia, and Gora Bashkara, Russia. Stokes et al (2006) note that 94% of Caucasus Mountain glaciers retreated from 1985 to 2000 and it is clear from the aforementioned that the trends continues. (AGU Blogosphere, emphasis added).
Khimsa Glacier is a rare significant glacier south of the main crest of the Caucasus Mountains in Georgia. The glacier drains north to the Bzyb River, and then the Black Sea. The rivers upper reach is quite undeveloped and there is no hydropower along the river to date. The glacier flows from an elevation of 3000 m to 2650 m. In 1998 the glacier was 1.6 km long with a narrow terminus at the red arrow. At the transition to the glacier’s upper eastern slopes at Point A, there is only one small rock exposure. By 2013 the glacier has retreated 400 m to the yellow arrow, having lost 25% of its length in 15 years. The area of bedrock exposed on the upper eastern slope, at Point A, is significant now indicating thinning even high on the glacier. The glacier will soon separate near Point A into an upper and a lower section. In the Google Earth image the current terminus is indicated with orange dots and the glacier flow with blue arrows. Like Psysh Mountain glaciers 25 km north Khimsa Glacier thinning high on the glacier indicates it cannot survive current climate. Caucasus Mountain glaciers are in a period of rapid retreat (Shagedenova et al, 2009), that is attributed mainly to rising summer temperatures. Khimsa Glacier’s retreat parallels that of glaciers along the main crest of the Caucasus such as Kirtisho or Azau Glacier, though as a percent of total area lost it is greater. (AGU Blogosphere, emphasis added).
Changes in the area and number of glaciers in the Georgian Caucasus Mountains were examined over the last century, by comparing recent Landsat and ASTER images (2014) with older topographical maps (1911, 1960) along with middle and high mountain meteorological stations data. Total glacier area decreased by 8.1 ± 1.8 % (0.2 ± 0.04 % yr−1) or by 49.9 ± 10.6 km2 from 613.6 ± 9.8 km2 to 563.7 ± 11.3 km2 during 1911–1960, while the number of glaciers increased from 515 to 786. During 1960–2014, the total ice area decreased by 36.9 ± 2.2 % (0.7 ± 0.04 % yr−1) or by 207.9 ± 9.8 km2 from 563.7 ± 11.3 km2 to 355.8 ± 8.3 km2, while glacier numbers decreased from 786 to 637. In total, the area of Georgia glaciers reduced by 42.0 ± 2.0 % (0.4 ± 0.02 % yr−1) between 1911 and 2014. The eastern Caucasus section had the highest retreat rate of 67.3 ± 2.0 % (0.7 ± 0.02 % yr−1) over this period, while the central part of Georgian Caucasus had the lowest, 34.6 ± 1.8 % (0.3 ± 0.01 % yr−1), with the western Caucasus intermediate at 42.8 ± 2.7 % (0.4 ± 0.03 % yr−1). (Cryosphere).
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Zone AJ, Quadrant SE, Sub-quadrant NW

Fig. 1 Map from Wikipedia
I. Introduction

According to researchers who have studied it closely, the tidal area in AJ.SE.NW, the Black Sea, was not always tidal (Black Sea Commission).

It was land locked until the sea level rose above a low valley-like area near Istanbul, Turkey.

The rising Mediterranean waters caused the Aegean Sea near Athens, Greece to also rise, which in turn caused the Sea of Marmara waters to rise, and then to eventually flow together to join with the Black Sea waters.

Since the time that sea level rise caused by ancient Ice Age melt brought the bodies of water together, the narrow strait that was formed has, in modern times, been the focus of international involvement (Turkish Straits, Montreux Convention).

Fig. 2 Turkish Straits
The fact that a narrow strait was formed by natural sea level rise is interesting for several reasons.

But, it can't be completely envisioned and appreciated unless you take a close look.

In Fig. 2 (click to enlarge) you can see ships near the southern entrance, in the Sea of Marmara, about to enter the Turkish Straits.

Those vessels are on a northward heading which eventually takes them through the polluted water of the straits to the waters of the Black Sea (Fig. 2).

Note, for a better understanding of some of the rest of this post, that those waters are flowing from the Black Sea into the Sea of Marmara, then on into the Aegean, and finally into the Mediterranean.

II. How This Post Arose

I was running a module, in the Dredd Blog sea level change software model, which calculates and then writes CSV files which are used for generating graphs.

Fig. 3
Regular readers know that the modules that I am talking about access PSMSL data stored in an SQL database that I downloaded from the PSMSL organization.

Anyway, the module was analyzing the data zone by zone, and printing out a log of what it did, in addition to writing the CSV files.

It printed out 204 CSV files, one for each valid sub-quadrant in the database.

Let/s take a look at the first, last, as well as the one that caught my eye:
1) AA.SW.NW: from 1950 through 2002, 3 PSMSL stations recorded 53 years of SLC data. Changes (mm): [max=106.938, min=-130.666].
66) AJ.SE.NW: from 1874 through 2014, 6 PSMSL stations recorded 141 years of SLC data. Changes (mm): [max=1249.41, min=0]. 
204) A9.SE.NE: from 2001 through 2009, 1 PSMSL station recorded 8 years of SLC data. Changes (mm): [max=75.165, min=0].
That is the largest zone mean sea level rise (1,249.41 mm) I have yet discovered in the PSMSL system.

It is (1249.41 ÷ 304.8 =) 4.1 feet of sea level rise in 141 years.

That is an average of 8.86 mm per year for 141 years.

III. The PSMSL Stations In AJ.SE.NW

You can look-up the stations involved by clicking on the following PSMSL links to the pages of the 6 tide gauge stations in sub-quadrant AJ.SE.NW:
#41 POTI; #51, BATUMI; #215, TUAPSE; #1927, TRABZON II; #1919, AMASRA; and #42, SEVASTOPOL.
Only one of them is marked as having some questionable data (#51, BATUMI).

IV. The Reason For The High Sea Level Rise

There are a number of high-volume rivers which flow into the Black Sea area, but the strait (Fig. 2) is not large enough to allow an equal outflow:
"The resistance of the straits prevents the immediate export of the excess water coming from rivers and air – sea exchange, thus the response to external forcing is amplified, making the signals quite distinct both in the tide gauge data (Simonov and Altman, 1991; Boguslavsky et al., 1998), as well as in the satellite altimetry (Korotaev et al., 1998, 2001; Stanev et al., 2000). The control of the Bosphorus Straits makes the Black Sea a good overall integrator of the various kind of forcing and internal variability and maintains a strong correlation between the fresh water fluxes and sea level variability (Stanev et al., 2000)."
(Black Sea Variations). Thus, unless there are melting glaciers and/or ice sheets still feeding those rivers, this is an example of natural, non-anthropogenic sea level rise.

Historically, glaciers have been a source of melt water which has had an impact on the sea level of the Black Sea:
As the supply of the melting water from the glaciers through the Dniepr and the Dniestr rivers, as well as the Danube river to the Black Sea was very direct and important, the Neoeuxinian sea-level rose very quickly, reaching and overpassing at ~ 12 ka BP the Bosphorous sill altitude. The majority of scientists, who studied the Black Sea, believe that in this phase it was a large fresh-water outflow through the Bosphorous-Dardanelles straits towards the Mediterranean (Aegean) Sea. Kvasov (1975) calculated that the fresh water outflow discharge was of about 190 km3/year.

At the beginning of the Holocene, some 9-7.5 ka BP, when the Mediterranean and the Black Seas have reached the same level (close to the present day one), the two-way water exchange was established, and the process of transformation of the Black Sea in an anoxic brackish sea started. During the last 3 ka BP, a number of smaller oscillations of the water level have been recorded (“Phanagorian regression”, “Nymphaean” transgression, a lowering of 1÷2 m in the X-th century AD, a slow rising continuing even today).
(The Black Sea, p. 4, PDF). Evidently the flow of glacial melt water through the rivers that empty into the Black Sea has now stopped.

Thus, in that sense the sea level rise in the AJ.SE.NW sub-quadrant is not caused by anthropogenic global warming.

Nevertheless, one could argue that to the extent that the Mediterranean has had sea level rise at or near the Turkish strait, it could be increasingly blocking the outflow from the Black Sea.

In that case there would be an indirect global warming affect to the Black Sea area's sea level rise shown in Fig. 3.

V.  Climate Change Research About The Black Sea

A regular reader, Randy, wondered about precipitation in the watersheds of rivers discharging into the Black Sea.

Here is some information on that issue:
"The detection of trends requires the availability of long-term time series of river discharge. Unfortunately, the release of hydrological data from national monitoring networks is not as common as for climate data. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean context, where water resources represent an important economical value and political barriers probably still inhibit more transparency on river data.
The Danube and the Dniepr are the only rivers where the records extend to recent years, whereas the other records stop already in 1984. This complicates the detection of long-term trends. Nevertheless, it seems that the general trend towards decreasing water discharge of the Mediterranean rivers is absent in the Black Sea.
For the Black Sea rivers ... climate is characterized by a continental precipitation regime, and summer precipitation can even exceed precipitation in winter (Ludwig et al., 2003). This sharply contrasts with the Mediterranean climate."
(Water discharge Black Sea, pp. 203-06). At first blush, one would think that discharge into the Black Sea from the Danube and Dniepr (the two most significant discharge contributors to the Black Sea) would have an upward trend line.

However, the paper goes on to assert:
Over the 1960–2000 period, river freshwater discharge to the Mediterranean Sea decreased, while that to the Black Sea remained more or less constant. For the former, we estimate the reduction to be at least 20% ... This reduction is mainly derived from the large-scale evolution of precipitation and temperature and thus reflects the potential impact of climate change on river freshwater discharge.
(ibid, p.214). The Mediterranean Sea lost 20% of discharge volume due to climate change, while the Black Sea held "more or less constant" by comparison.

I think they summed it up well:
"Further work including new data and modelling is clearly needed to define if this may have also occurred at other places. Modelling studies are also needed to evaluate the potential impact of the reductions in freshwater inputs on marine ecosystems through modifications of the water circulation in the Mediterranean Sea."
(ibid, p. 215). To which I would add, "yes, and that should be done by reference to sea level change records as I have done."

Then it becomes obvious, since the Black Sea has risen 4.1 feet, that the "more or less constant" statement should be "the Black Sea is rising a lot, and is doing so quickly."

Further, silting, land subsidence, thermal expansion and the like, do not explain the steep sea level rise.

I demand that those governments that are holding back the data as the paper indicated ("Unfortunately, the release of hydrological data from national monitoring networks is not as common as for climate data") change their policy and let the scientists use that data.

VI. The Black Sea Phenomenon is Useful

A PSMSL station in the area shows that sea level rise near the entrance to the strait shown in Fig. 2: has increased.

Sea level at Stn #1598, ERDEK (Aegean, Mediteranean) increased by about 1.3 ft from 1984 – 2009.

Thus, IMO the "plugging of the drain" effect at the strait can be attributed in part to indirect anthropogenic global warming, because of the sea level rise global warming there generates.

But, by and large, even though to some degree the Black Sea is experiencing sea level rise because there is a natural blockage, one useful thing to be gained by it all is that it is a case in point for what will happen during future anthropogenic sea level rise in other areas.

(cf. Danube Watershed, Danube Watch, Danube Watershed History (2005), Danube Watershed History (2014).

VII. Conclusion

The Black Sea phenomenon is known to port officials.

The officials and mentors for port construction and operations are also aware of what sea level science portends:
For new terminals, building quays higher is an obvious measure – ‘but it is still based on broad assumptions, unless there are site specific studies’. Also, deeper water generates larger waves. “You should allow for the increased impact of water levels on wave breaking – maybe breakwater designs need looking at.

“And even if you can afford a new port and design the level accordingly, the hinterland behind it and all the connections are still vulnerable. Assuming that your connections might be inundated, then you are going to need larger storage areas to hold containers, etc., and I don’t think that’s typically factored in.”

Ben Lieberman, senior port planner at US-based consultants Louis Berger, agrees: “It is known that sea levels are rising but nobody knows how much how fast. There are models to predict, but there is a margin of error. So does another metre (quay height) give you some assurance? It puts you in better shape, but you would have to do an analysis of what it would cost to raise it in terms of concrete, piles, etc. However, it is of course easier to design it in the beginning than go back and retrofit.”

How much attention is being paid to climate change issues in port design? It can’t be avoided in new developments, says Mr Lieberman, because the banks or others providing the finance will insist on adequate consideration of such issues.

“Whether it is addressed effectively is another matter – because we don’t know ‘how much’. And if you are talking about the modification of existing facilities, then obviously you are constrained by the existing design.”
(Port Strategy). It is time for the business as usual sea level scientists to realize that they may be seen, in the future, as being responsible  for very costly and confusing rhetoric.

"Worse than previously thought" is an overused but real phrase we read about often.

Time to replace it with "thanks for thinking ahead for us."