Friday, March 17, 2017

On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 14

Fig. 1 PSMSL: where it's at
I. Background

The PSMSL folks updated their database a few days ago, so I updated my SQL server database accordingly.

This ties in with the recent updates to WOD databases, adding the DOY and Monthly views of temperatures and salinity, so I thought I would give the modules a run on the new data to generate the new picture on the Golden 23 zones (Calling All Cars: The Case of the "Missing Six" - 5).

Today, let's do that while revisiting the hypothesis that all of this effort deals with and is focused on (the "thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise" hypothesis).

In this series (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13) I have been discussing the lack of evidence for thermal expansion as the main cause of sea level rise (SLR).

The thermal expansion hypothesis was engendered by the IPCC:
"The pattern of sea level in ocean basins is maintained by atmospheric pressure and air-sea fluxes of momentum (surface wind stress), heat and fresh water (precipitation, evaporation, and fresh-water runoff from the land).
Fig. 2 Net thermal impact
The ocean is strongly density stratified with motion preferentially along density surfaces (e.g. Ledwell et al., 1993, 1998).

This allows properties of water masses, set by interaction with the atmosphere or sea ice, to be carried thousands of kilometres into the ocean interior and thus provides a pathway for warming of surface waters to enter the ocean interior.

As the ocean warms, the density decreases and thus even at constant mass the volume of the ocean increases. This thermal expansion (or steric sea level rise) occurs at all ocean temperatures and is one of the major contributors to sea level changes during the 20th and 21st centuries."
(IPCC, emphasis added). Why did they leave out thermal contraction, along with a (suggested) complementary statement:
As the ocean cools, even at constant mass the volume of the ocean decreases. This thermal contraction (or steric sea level fall) occurs at all ocean temperatures but neither it nor thermal expansion are major contributors to sea level changes during the 20th and 21st centuries. They are minor contributors.
(See: On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 12).

If the ocean temperature warms up X amount, then cools down the same X amount, the net change is zero (no expansion or contraction effect remains; see e.g. Fig. 2).

Even though leaving out the other side of the coin is absurd, that is exactly what the IPCC has done by asserting that no cooling or contraction is taking place in the oceans.

Several Dredd Blog series have shown, using WOD and PSMSL data, that the ocean temperatures go up and down at all ocean depth levels.

II. The Golden Twenty-Three Zones
Fig. 3  Sea level change

The four-panel PSMSL graph at Fig. 3 shows the SLC that has taken place over the years in the subject 23 WOD zones.

Fig. 4a  Year / Salinity
For comparison, the temperature and salinity graphs at Fig. 4a - Fig. 6b show no pattern that can be associated with the SLC shown in Fig. 3 (in terms of temperature and salinity changes that match the SLC pattern).

Fig. 4b  Year / Temperature
The SLC trend since about the turn of the century (c. 1900), shown in Fig. 3, is clearly consistently upward.

For about a century the trend has been of the nature of sea level rise (SLR).

Fig. 5a  Month / Salinity
To the contrary, the temperature and salinity patterns (Fig. 4b - Fig. 6b) do not match that trend.

They show warming and cooling, meaning both expanding and contracting, with a net result that does not match the degree of the net result of the SLC in Fig. 3.

Fig. 5b  Month / Temperature
Regular readers may remember the net calculations conducted previously which show that in general the warming from absorbing sunlight at the surface tends to slowly spread into the vast deeps (see e.g. The Layered Approach To Big Water - 5).

Those deep waters can and do absorb a tremendous amount of warmth (~95% or more) which CO2 trapped heat/sunlight generates.

That warming takes place without producing a constant, recognizable pattern which matches the SLR dynamically upward pattern.
Fig. 6a  Day of Year / Salinity

III. Why The Golden 23

The graphs today focus on the Golden 23 Zones where the Golden 23 tide gauge stations are located.

Those are the choice of experts such as Jerry Mitrovica and Douglas because they present a view of SLC that balances the hemispheric SLC (see video here).

Too much north, or too much south can throw researchers off (remember "the European problem?").

So, both the SLC graph (Fig. 3) and the salinity and temperature graphs (Fig. 4a - Fig. 6b) are from PSMSL tide gauge measurement and WOD water measurement datasets from the Golden 23 zones.

IV. Conclusion

I am reiterating this information because as we traverse through the layers with the new (Year, Day of Year, and Monthly) graph views generated from the WOD water temperature and salinity records, we need to remember that there is a purpose to it.
Fig. 6b  Day of Year / Temperature

We are questioning the "sacred cow" of the scientists who think "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise."

Meanwhile, we can learn even more details about the vast ocean's many curiosities.

Ok, I have to get back to work on the other levels.

The previous post in this series is here.

"A Series of Dreams ..."

Thursday, March 16, 2017

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 4

"I'm just a singer in a rock n roll band." - Mighty Quinn
Well, we covered The Don, The Banners, and Sgt. Dog in the previous posts of this series (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3).

So, today let's cover the Mighty Quinn, a General of Bullshitistan if there ever was one.

He was being paid more money than many folks make in their minimum wage universe during their entire working life.

Yes, he was being paid as a foreign agent by at least two foreign governments (New Documents Reveal That The Mighty Quinn Had Deeper Financial Ties To Russia).

That is how Bullshitistan is made great again, by putting foreign agents in top national security slots?

"That way no one will know this is Murka, and will not be able to attack Murka, voila, a safe nation." - Spicer Parts

This is the basic essence of shape shifting, handed down by the forefodders:
Shape Quinn & Shifter Quinn
''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.'' [The Karl]
(Saint Warmonger The Hero). I'll bet you can hardly wait until the spice man and the spice woman get caught playing doctor in the Whut? House bowling alley.

After the capitol of Is Real? is moved over to Meeker Street in NeoJerusalem, they are going to move The Whut? House of Bullshitistan over to Bleaker Street:

"Fog's rollin' in off the East River bank
Like a shroud it covers Bleeker Street
Fills the alleys where men sleep
Hides the shepherd from the sheep

Voices leaking from a sad cafe
Smiling faces try to understand
I saw a shadow touch a shadow's hand
On Bleeker Street

(Dumb & Dumber -> Bleak & Bleeker). In Bullshitistan, when there is an epidemic of dementia, the doctors quote the mantra "have an election" as the cure-all (Will Elections Cure The Disease?, 2, 3, 4).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

A New Way of Analyzing The Depths - 3

Fig. 1 Layer Nine
In the series The Layered Approach To Big Water (The Layered Approach To Big Water, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) we talked about the 18 layers in the WOD database (9 in each hemisphere).

Those layers have boundaries of latitude lines at their top and bottom (Fig. 1 shows Layer Nine).

That series only dealt with one way of looking at these layers, so today we begin the series that uses three views with which to contemplate each ocean layer.

Fig. 2a
And we are looking at those three views in terms of temperature and in terms of salinity. beginning with the year 1962 and ending with the year 2017 (applies to all graphs today).

And as promised, I am showing those three views in both light background and dark background (you are welcome Mark).

Fig. 2b
The first view graphed today is the "day-of-year" (DOY) view.
The DOY view is graphed from one of three SQL table types in an SQL database.

I explained the first stage in (Databases Galore - 18), containing close to a billion rows of data constructed straight from the WOD "PI format" files I downloaded from the World Ocean Database.

Fig. 3a
The second stage tables in that database have a structure (one is shown in Fig. 8) designed to condense those ~billion measurements into a condensed version (e.g. seven depth layers instead of ten thousand).

The third stage, from which the graphs are produced, are the most condensed.

Getting on with today's graphs, the first part of the DOY view (salinity) is shown in Fig. 2a and Fig. 2b.

Fig. 4a
The second part of the DOY view (temperature) is shown in Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b.

The DOY view is constructed by taking all of the WOD (CTD & PFL) measurements recorded over time and placing them into the day-of-year (1-366) format.

All measurements are placed into the DOY which they were taken, and then a mean average for that DOY is calculated.

Fig. 5a
The different view this produces, along with the other two, will often times give us clues about ocean dynamics we could have otherwise missed.

The hypothesis concerning a layered approach is that these bands within ten degree latitude lines spanning the globe are reasonably similar to be the source of a reasonable mean average.

Fig. 6a
That is to say, as professor Mitrovika indicated, "mean average covers up a lot of reality."

For example, notice how smooth the graphs at Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b are in comparison to Fig. 7a and Fig. 7b.

Fig. 7a
The salinity graphs have the same effect, as shown in Fig. 4a and Fig. 4b compared with Fig. 6a and Fig. 6b.

Remember that this is the same exact data, the same exact measurements taken from 1962 through 2017 (~5.5 decades).

Yet that same data in the DOY view, compared to the Month and Year views, gives helpfully different patterns.

I mean head-scratching helpful.

It is always a helpful challenge to explain some of these things, because we are too accustomed to the "global mean average cop-out.

The salinity dips are of particular interest (see comments to the previous post in this series here).

Fig. 8

In that case there was a sharp drop in salinity around Greenland at about the 240 day mark of the DOY graph.

One one hand it was hypothesized to have taken place because of rain intensity during that time of year.

On the other hand it was hypothesized to have taken place because the most intense melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet impacts the surface waters around Greenland at about that time of year.

Today, we have a repeat of that perplexing pattern in Layer Nine at about DOY 130 (Fig. 2a, Fig. 2b).

In addition, we have the Month view which adds spice to the inquiry (Fig. 4a, Fig. 4b).

"The rain did it" hypothesis has an edge with respect to Layer Nine, because there is no ice sheet there to ponder.

I wonder if it would be helpful to consider the Year view to be like taking a person's blood pressure, while considering the DOY and Month views to be more like taking a look at a person's genetics?

They are bound to produce different patterns, yet they are from the same person's internals.

Let's keep working these hypotheses as we traverse the 18 layers of the vast oceans in upcoming posts.

It is likely that we will see more of this, and it will enhance our ability to falsify or establish the validity of the hypotheses.

There is always the chance that both hypotheses are valid, but not at the same zone or layer.

Where there is no ice sheet near enough to impact local salinity that can be ruled out.

Likewise, remembering that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are classified as deserts, in terms of annual precipitation, rain or snow are less suspicious than melt is.

Think about it to prepare for the other layers that are in the works.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Databases Galore - 18

Fig. 1 Single Measurement structure
I hope to update this post later today with some new graphs (building the new format tables is time consuming).

If not, then I will present them in a separate post tomorrow.

The new SQL raw (single measurements) database table structure is shown in Fig. 1, while the new individual table sizes, in terms of rows of data,  now looks like this:
WOD database (raw) tables:

rawwod_1000_vc1 : 130,540,624 rows
rawwod_1000_vc2 : 129,203,775 rows
(259,744,399 total)
rawwod_3000_vc1 : 75,010,771 rows
rawwod_3000_vc2 : 73,224,853 rows
(148,235,624 total)
rawwod_5000_vc1 : 82,497,275 rows
rawwod_5000_vc2 : 81,429,853 rows
(163,927,128 total)
rawwod_7000_vc1 : 135,118,197 rows
rawwod_7000_vc2 : 133,317,260 rows
(268,435,457 total)
rawwod_new_vc1 : 67,126,528 rows
rawwod_new_vc2 : 67,091,192 rows
(134,217,720 total)
974,560,328 rows (grand total)
Yep, we are dealing with almost a billion rows of measurements which the scientific community has shared with us.

Fig. 2a
These data are being used to generate three more tables: year, month, and day-of-year, each of which are segmented into the usual seven depth layers (0-200m, 201-400m, 401-600m, 601-800m, 801-1000m, 1001-3000m, and >3000m).

The "vc1" in the raw table names indicates temperature measurements, while the "vc2" indicates salinity measurements.

Fig. 2b
The "1000", "3000", "5000", and "7000" segments of the table names indicate which quadrant of the Earth (NW, NE, SW, SE) the measurements took place in (the "new" segment combines measurements from all four quadrants, since they are the combined WOD updates).

The raw tables are produced from raw WOD files of the CTD and PFL types that are in what I call "PI format"  (WOD Database Selection Menu).

Fig. 3a
The good news is that these three processed formats (year, month, day-of-year) will give three different views of the same measurements, the difference being how they are averaged (time-slice oriented).

All of them, of course, will still be WOD zone based.

The "yearly" is the usual Dredd Blog presentation, the "day-of-year" is all measurements from all years that have been placed into the day of year table in the proper slot (1-366 - each slot representing the day of the year when the measurement was taken).

Fig. 3b
The "monthly" view presents all measurements taken in one of twelve months over the entire span of time in which measurements have been taken and recorded in the WOD.

Comparing the three views of every measurement, combined with the others, and formatted into mean average values, hopefully gives us a broad comprehension of what is going on.

Fig. 4a

We are going to zone in.

The previous post in this series is here.

Fig. 4b
UPDATE: I finally got the graphing dynamics up and running enough to generate a dark background and light background for one zone.

All three presentation types are used (year, month, and day-of-year).

They generate different tracks as you can see.

Next, I am going to graph the layers beginning with the equator, then working away from it as was done in a previous series (The Layered Approach To Big Water, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

Anyone want to venture comments as to why the same data looks so different when mean averaged to a yearly basis, a monthly basis, and a day of year basis?