On the heels of yesterday's revelations about our WOD Datasets not matching the expected patterns of ocean temperature increases, I tasked myself with finding a properly balanced list of WOD zones that would more accurately reflect a balanced ocean temperature pattern.
The lower right pane of the graph at Fig. 1 shows an ocean water temperature increase of almost one degree C, which is more in line with the GISS Anomaly of one degree C, and the abstract Conservative Temperature (CT) increase of about one degree C in the upper right pane.
The problem that was solved is shown in the bottom left pane of Fig. 1, which is that using all measurements in all WOD Zones generated a false scenario for the years 1968 - 2016.
To find a proper balance, I resorted to Dredd Blog's past "layered approach" for selecting appropriate candidates for making up the list (The Layered Approach To Big Water, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
Layers are better suited for selecting ocean measurements because a layer goes all the way across the globe at a given latitude (Fig. 2).
This means there will be a better global concentration of measurements to work with.
Remember that scientists have to have funding to go out with sophisticated equipment to the middle zones of the oceans, far from land; or to go to many other difficult venues.
Thus, measurements for hard to get to areas tend to be less available for our use.
I am currently using the six layers shown in (Fig. 2) for accessing all of the in situ WOD temperature, salinity, and depth measurements that are being compared to the abstract calculations (Fig. 1).
These six layers will be the "Golden Layers" as I proceed with version 1.3 of the module.
That upgrade will include the abstract and measured Thermal Expansion analysis graphs (thermosteric volume & sea level change).
Previous ocean temperature, etc. graphs have used only the "Golden 23" ensemble of WOD Zones, which was originally grouped in order to solve some sea level change imbalances.
As it turns out, what is a balanced configuration for tide gauge stations is not necessarily a balanced configuration for deep ocean measurements.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
Once a denier, this scientist discusses "selection bias" and why he is no longer a denier:
In yesterday's post I noted that I had completed version 1.0 of a module that would generate abstract graphs (e.g. Fig. 1).
The purpose of the module is to generate graphs to show how things would look in a perfect mathematical world as compared to our current datasets of in situ measurements (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 27).
The reason for that exercise is to test our measurements of ocean temperatures, salinity, depths, and sea level changes against the backdrop of an informed simulation (e.g. Fig. 2).
Fig.2
The first test of the software was applied to the measurements of sea level changes compared to the measurements of surface temperatures (i.e. GISTEMP atmospheric temperature measurements since 1880).
The results shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 turned out to be within the realm of what was to be reasonably expected (because absolute agreement is not expected between abstract and measured).
Fig. 3 The Problem
With those results in mind, I indicated that I would proceed to test the World Ocean Database (WOD) to see if the abstract and the measurements in the WOD would generate the same general results.
The results of version 1.1 of the module show that the WOD datasets have unbalanced measurements in either depths or latitude / longitude locations, or both (e.g. Fig. 3).
That is, the measurements are concentrated in locations or depths that are not a reasonable pattern-match in terms of what is to be expected according to the abstract projections.
The measurement data used to generate the lower two panes in Fig. 3 reflect two circumstances.
The first circumstance, shown in the lower left pane, details the ocean temperature measurements using all CTD and PFL measurements in all WOD Zones (1968-2016).
The second circumstance, shown in the lower right pane, details the ocean temperature measurements in only the "Golden 23" zones (also 1968-2016).
Both graphs in the lower panes show the in situ measured water temperatures decreasing over the period 1968 - 2016, with the lower right pane showing an up-tick in temperatures over the last few years, but the lower left showing a decrease in temperatures over the same period.
That contrast in Fig. 3 is even more stark when compared to the upper panes that show generally and mathematically what should be happening.
This situation is what Dr. Mitrovica pointed out in the video below when the same problem plagued sea level science concerning "the European problem."
At one time tide gauge station measurements in Europe were confounding because they showed consistent sea level fall, or a smaller increase when other places where showing more sea level rise.
It was called "the European problem" in the scientific literature because some scientists forgot about the law of gravity and Newton.
Professor Mitrovica goes on to point out that a scientist by the name of Bruce Douglas indicated that scientists have to pick and choose measurements from locations (and depths) which compose a balanced sample that shows actual global dynamics.
This is an elementary consideration, and is obviously true when one contemplates what would be shown if our measurements were taken only at the equator, or (in stark contrast) if our measurements were taken only at the poles.
So, with that in mind I chose as one sample the "Golden 23" WOD Zones, and as the second sample all WOD Zones.
As it turns out, those two test cases for ocean temperature measurements are at odds with what is taking place in the oceans as a whole.
So, it turns out (as shown in Fig. 3), that we have "a European problem" as it were involving in situ measurements.
So, we have to determine the best WOD Zones to use to reflect a closer pattern match to the abstract graphs.
Meanwhile, I will be completing the thermosteric volume logic in the module so we can print that out and show the contrast (as we search for the "Golden WOD Zones" to use as our in situ measurement balance.
I recently updated the PSMSL database with data up to 13 November 2017 (PSMSL).
I combine the two (annual, monthly) downloads into one SQL table.
The result was a 9 mm drop in the global mean sea level average (GMSL) in terms of the "Golden 23" ... a group which is now composed of the original 23 tide gauge stations said to be a good representation of the state of sea level rise globally (see video below).
Fig. 2
Regular readers know that I use all stations located in the same WOD Zones as those original 23 stations.
As it turns out, those 23 stations are located in 15 WOD Zones, which contain 303 tide gauge stations.
Anyway, the graphic at Fig. 3 shows the areas that were updated, which explains why there was a drop (9 mm) in the GMSL, because sea level is falling in Patagonia (southern tip of S. America) and the N. European area (Proof of Concept - 5).
Fig. 3
The sea level around the world is in a constant state of change, so each time we update the PSMSL data those changes will be included.
The trend, however, has been the same for a century or so, with sea level falling around large concentrations of ice (Greenland, Antarctica, Glacier Bay Alaska, etc), but rising where the hinge point begins (The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points, 2; cf. video below).
In short, our observation of sea level change is based on our measurements, which are not always geographically balanced (The World According To Measurements, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
II. New Software Module
I have wanted to have an abstraction module to help show us how balanced those measurements are or are not.
I have just completed the 1.0 version.
The module-generated-graph at Fig. 1 shows a comparison with the latest PSMSL data and the abstract version.
The lower pane in that graph is from the recent PSMSL data, while the upper pane is the abstract version.
Let me explain what the abstract version does.
The WOD manual (Appendix 11.1, Appendix 11.2) contains the high and low temperatures and salinities to be expected at thirty-three (33) depths from 0 to 5,500 meters in 30 different ocean basins around the globe.
It covers the entire world ocean temperature, salinity, etc. from surface to bottom.
I put all of that information in SQL tables for quick access.
This allows me to generate a median value (high and low values added up at each depth, then divided by 2) for temperature, salinity, thermosteric volume (cu. km) and thermosteric sea level change (mm).
I then use the TEOS-10 toolkit for generating abstract CT, SA, and volume change calculations on each depth level, as I do with WOD in situ (measured) values in non-abstract operations (Golden 23 Zones Meet TEOS-10).
Then, since we also have (in an SQL table) the GISS global mean surface temperature changes (anomalies) since 1880 (Fig. 2, upper left pane), and since ~93% of that change in surface warming (that of the atmosphere) ends up in the ocean, it can be used as a guide to map out the abstract changes in those median ocean temperatures.
That pattern-map ends up being a background to compare with our in situ measurements to see if our measurements are too centralized, i.e. located in one area or another too heavily.
The upper right pane in Fig. 2 show that abstract pattern in TEOS Conservative Temperature (CT).
Once I have the CT, the Absolute Salinity (SA), the depth, the latitude, and the longitude, I can then calculate the thermosteric volume (thermal expansion & contraction) as well as sea level changes in the abstract (Fig. 2, lower panes).
Notice how closely the patterns in the four panes of Fig. 2 match.
III. Conclusion
One take away from this is that I think it confirms the selection of the "Golden 23" that Professor Mitrovica explained to us.
The graph lines in Fig. 1 show that the abstract pattern and the actual in situ measurements pattern are quite reasonably close.
Thus, our PSMSL measurements are turning out to be quite good.
In future posts of this series, or a new series, I want to analyze the WOD measurements with this new module to see if they are as good as the PSMSL measurements.
Remember, when I indicate "good" I mean the distribution of the measurements around the glove, not the quality of the science of the measurements.
Remember also that no matter how good (in terms of accuracy) any measurements are, they have to be distributed evenly enough (e.g. not all at the poles) in order to properly inform us of the global reality.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
Professor Jerry Mitrovica, Harvard University:
This observant Judge Liddle Pistol shot back that he always got their mother's permission to date them (The Week).
So, there is a movement to have Judge Liddle Pistol come over to the Whut? House for an interview by The Don for a job as Adoreme General to replace the current AG, The Who Doo.
In that serious Whut? House conference, The Banner Who Stayed intimated that "if these allegations prove to be true" we want Judge Liddle Pistol to replace The Who Doo
The Banner Who Left quipped that "we need a general who will put his hands on the Russia thingy and have his way with it rather than do like The Who Doo and nastily recuse himself before everyone."
The First Pence (a.k.a. Chief Yellow Pence'l) added, "we need a strong man who never worries about the smell test" (Once Upon A Time In The West - 2).
Meanwhile, The Don was excruciatingly happy to find everything in the odor he left it in when he returned from an art of the deal trip abroad.
On that trip The Don colluded bigly with "Rusher and Jaina" to persuade Liddle Short and Fat Rocket Man to stop calling The Don "old" (TMZ).
The Don has called just about everyone in the U.S. a liar, but believes Putin (see tweet to the left; click to enlarge).
He is preparing for the uproar that is building up due to his being "the greatest president of all time," or perhaps he is preparing for his next big deal to cut those burdensome federal taxes now placed on the billionaires like himself.
The Don can thereafter beat down some more unions and eradicate some more minimum wage laws now that he will have the hands on help of Judge Liddle Pistol (after first sending The Who Doo back to sweet home Alabama).
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here. Southern Man lyrics are here.
