Friday, January 15, 2016

The Evolution of Models - 19

Fig. 1 Zone in for a change
Big winds and waves have hit Greenland recently (Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 36-72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole).

The high waves and strong winds brought by these anomalous storms can weaken the ice shelves which hold back the ice sheet's hundreds of kilometers long ice streams (Watch The Ice Shelves, 2).

Fig. 2 #11, #16
Another storm is slated to impact Greenland again for the second time in a short while (Hurricane Alex).

This increases sea level change (SLC) which endangers the world's seaports.

So, today's post covers the world's top seaports again (@ #11 - #20), focusing on container ship seaports, which carry the cargo of the world (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

Fig. 3 #11, #16
A recent post covered the top ten seaports (Proxymetry3 - 3).

I added today's ten seaports because the US made the list at #18.

Yes, the busiest US seaport is number 18 in the world of container ship economy, which, depending on who you ask, is 80 - 95% of the world's international trade.

Fig. 4 #12
As you can see by these graphs, which are like the graphs showing the top ten seaports, these ports are also threatened with extinction (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2).

Fig. 5 #12
Sea level rise (SLR) and sea level fall (SLF) will continue for quite a while after civilization stops pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

So, this is in some ways like planning public works projects, which takes years to decades of preparation.
Fig. 6 #13

Fig. 7 #13
Seaport work (dredging or relocating in cases of sea level fall (SLF), and relocating in cases of sea level rise (SLR) which is too high for repair) normally takes years and decades of planning.

But, in reacting to SLC there is the problem of the sea level not waiting till the work is done before rising again (Groundhog Day & The Climate of Fear, Will This Float Your Boat - 9).
Fig. 8 #14

Fig. 9 #14
Thus, we can deduce that it is not likely to be the kind of project that meets with success.

To the degree projects are where the ground, or in this case the sea, is moving under one's feet each day, is the degree to which success is illusive.
Fig. 10 #15

Fig. 11 #15
Add to that the fact that every seaport on the planet faces this threat, and we can deduce that there are not enough contractors to do that many projects at once.

And when they finish, after a decade of work, the sea level will have changed.

So, "hi ho hi ho its off to work" they go, doing the same thing over and over again like in the Groundhog Day movie.

This is no comedy, however, so the serious predicament will become the news of the day whether the presstitutes come out of their fog or not (In the Fog of The Presstitutes, 2, 3, 4).

And what, prey tell, will be the news about the presstitutes in terms of what they covered up?

That much is clear.

They keep telling you about polar bears and the like because they know "you" really do not give a shit about "duh environment" because "you" have been fornicated into the "we are us, they are them" trance.

The us vs them trance that is a big money maker for the warmongers (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5).

A pitiful trance, because once infected by it one becomes aloof to the real dangers involved:
Climate model projections are often aggregated into multi-model averages of all models participating in an intercomparison project, such as the Coupled
Fig. 12  #18
Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The "multi-model" approach provides a sensitivity test to the models' structural choices and implicitly assumes that multiple models provide additional and more reliable information than a single model, with higher confidence being placed on results that are common to an ensemble. A first initiative of the ice sheet modeling community, SeaRISE, provided such multi-model average projections of polar ice sheets' contribution to sea-level rise. The SeaRISE Antarctic numerical experiments aggregated results from all models devoid of a priori selection, based on the capacity of such models to represent key ice-dynamical processes. Here, using the experimental setup proposed in SeaRISE, we demonstrate that correctly representing grounding line dynamics is essential to infer future Antarctic mass change. We further illustrate the significant impact on the ensemble
Fig. 13  #18
mean and deviation of adding one model with a known bias in its ability of modeling grounding line dynamics. We show that this biased model can hardly be identified from the ensemble only based on its estimation of volume change, as ad hoc and untrustworthy parametrizations can force any modeled grounding line to retreat. However, tools are available to test parts of the response of marine ice sheet models to perturbations of climatic and/or oceanic origin (MISMIP, MISMIP3d). Based on recent projections of Pine Island Glacier mass loss, we further show that excluding ice sheet models that do not pass the MISMIP benchmarks decreases the mean contribution and standard deviation of the multi-model ensemble projection by an order of magnitude for that particular drainage basin.
(The Cryosphere, emphasis added). Like Dr. James Hansen said, the scientific community is cow-towed by various management pressures.

One pressure is to not stampede the crowd (so management does not get trampled).

Software engineers must not leave their common sense at home, nor get their noses too close to the grindstone (The Gravity of Sea Level Change - 3, 4).

The ice sheets and ice shelves do not listen to, nor have any interest in, managers who feel pressure from funding sources.

Which is like the Dredd Blog SLC model.

In this morning's trial print out it wrote "you better eat your Wheaties !"

The major 100 seaports are doomed (Dredd Blog's Seventh Anniversary).

The next post in this series is here, previous post in this series is here.





Thursday, January 14, 2016

Proxymetry3 - 3

Fig. 1 Homeland Lost
Yes, we all laugh now.

But way back when, there were plenty of jingos who filled the pick-up truck full of plastic and duct tape, it was no laughing matter.

I mean those who were doing the "policy coup" as General Wesley Clark labelled it, were blasting the call to plastic, call to duct tape, yes, the call of the wild to arms (Fig. 1).

You ain't a true 'merkun ' lessun you got your windows taped.

It is like that in politics now too, where screwballs who think they are saavy, are selling the plastic and selling the duct tape once again.

Where do all these Luddites come from you may be wondering.

Fig. 2 Homeland Really Lost
Well, so are all the scientists who work in the field of Agnotology, those who try to pin down the origin of ignorance.

Anyway, today I generated a graph with the express purpose of rubbing those puppies' noses in it (Fig. 2).

I mean those fools who scared the shit out of Americans, just for the hell of it.

Fig. 3
The warning that is real is the one that informs these dorks of what is really coming their way, and doing so in a manner that nothing these dorks can do will change it.

Fig. 4 "We're Number One"
I don't want to offend these crackpots with political correctness, so I will just say to them "you are batshit crazy" to worry about things not likely to happen.

Start worrying about real dangers that are already flowing toward, around, through, and eventually above you.

Fig. 5
The graphs today show the early beta results of the Dredd Blog software model that deals with sea level change (SLC).

The previous fingerprint modules only did historical record fingerprints, but now I have coded for future fingerprinting as well.

In other words, this is done to show possible scenarios of what SLC will look like in the future.

Fig. 6
These particular graphs come from the module that deals only with the top seaports of the world.

By that I mean, those that deal with the most cargo (container ships).

I set the module to do the top ten ports by generating graphs and information about those top ten seaports (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2).

Several of those top ten are in the same Dredd Blog zone (see Proxymetry3 - 2), and six out of ten of them are in China.

SLC is not limited to any country, continent, or people (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 5).

Fig. 7
All of us are being invaded, including the US (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3).

So, I am offering those assholes who counselled us to do the plastic duct tape boogie to do the same (On The Origin of Assholes).

The only difference is that this SLC danger is real to the bone, while their song was pure hokeyum (The Common Good - 11).

The next thing I need to do, in terms of advancing the model, is to plug in the IPCC degree of acceleration of SLC, since the module only does the Hansen (2015) degree at this juncture ("10 ft of sea level rise may happen by 2050").

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


Tuesday, January 12, 2016

The Way of Civilizations

RIP Mr. Bowie
Civilization:

"It is in the shelter of each other that the people live." - Irish Proverb

One would say that [man] is destined to exterminate himself after having rendered the globe uninhabitable.” - Lamarck (1817)

(See Genesis: The Evolution of Biology, by Jan Sapp, p. 274, fn. 14; quoting from Lamark's writings)

"Lastly, I could show fight on natural selection having done and doing more for the progress of civilisation than you seem inclined to admit. Remember what risks nations of Europe ran, not so many centuries ago, of being overwhelmed by the Turks, and how ridiculous such an idea now is! The more civilized so-called Caucasian races have beaten the Turkish hollow in the struggle for existence. Looking to the world at no very distant date, what an endless number of the lower races [Chuck was a tad-bit racist eh?] will have been eliminated by the higher civilized races throughout the world." - Charles Darwin (1881)

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson

"Mayr, from the point of view of a biologist, argued that it's very unlikely that we'll find any [extraterrestrial intelligence]. And his reason was, he said, we have exactly one example: Earth. So let's take a look at Earth. And what he basically argued is that intelligence is a kind of lethal mutation ... you're just not going to find intelligent life elsewhere, and you probably won't find it here for very long either because it's just a lethal mutation" - Dr. Noam Chomsky paraphrasing Dr. Ernst Mayr

"It is forbidden to kill therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets." -Voltaire

"History repeats itself, and that's one of the things that's wrong with history." - Clarence Darrow

"I maintain that truth is a pathless land, and you cannot approach it by any path whatsoever, by any religion, by any sect. That is my point of view, and I adhere to that absolutely and unconditionally. Truth, being limitless, unconditioned, unapproachable by any path whatsoever, cannot be organized; nor should any organization be formed to lead or coerce people along a particular path. ... This is no magnificent deed, because I do not want followers, and I mean this. The moment you follow someone you cease to follow Truth. I am not concerned whether you pay attention to what I say or not. I want to do a certain thing in the world and I am going to do it with unwavering concentration. I am concerning myself with only one essential thing: to set man free. I desire to free him from all cages, from all fears, and not to found religions, new sects, nor to establish new theories and new philosophies.
...
It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” -Jiddu Krishnamurti

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee

"One thing is for sure on the subject of global warming induced climate change: if there was ever a time to err on the safe side, it was long ago." - Dredd

"Concerning graphs of climate change and sea level change, the truth is in the trend line, not in the facts of the seesaw / sawtooth pattern." - Dredd

The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated.” - Mahatma Gandhi

"This latest edition of the Living Planet Report is not for the faint-hearted. One key point that jumps out and captures the overall picture is that the Living Planet Index (LPI), which measures more than 10,000 representative populations of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish, has declined by 52 per cent since 1970. Put another way, in less than two human generations, population sizes of vertebrate species have dropped by half. These are the living forms that constitute the fabric of the ecosystems which sustain life on Earth – and the barometer of what we are doing to our own planet, our only home. We ignore their decline at our peril." - Living Planet Report 2014

"What makes a masterpiece are the following: A love of life and nature; an interest in, mingled with contempt for humanity; and a lack of belief in the idea of progress." - Cyril Connolly

"As a civilization degenerates, its wisdom becomes 'the obvious', its history becomes its vision, and finally its vision becomes revisionism." - Dredd

"True terror is to wake up one morning and discover that your high school class is running the country." - Kurt Vonnegut


(From the Quotes Tab).

RIP Mr. Bowie ...



Monday, January 11, 2016

The Common Good - 11

NDIA "Danger Research Team Bravo"
I haven't completed the warning system for seaports, so I thought I would focus on a warning system that is up and running.

It is the "NDIA Danger Research Team Bravo'" pictured to the left.

That exemplary team gives the whole nation a very costly warning about the greatest enemy.

The team bravely asserts that the Pentagon should fear this enemy more than any other.

What is surprising is that an enemy kills more Americans than any terrorist organization has ever come even remotely close to:
The leading causes of death, each year, in the U.S. are:
  • Heart disease: 596,577
  • Cancer: 576,691
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 142,943
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,932
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 126,438
  • Alzheimer's disease: 84,974
  • Diabetes: 73,831
  • Influenza and Pneumonia: 53,826
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 45,591
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 39,518
(CDC). That is 1,869,321 per year (over 5,100 a day), so obviously "Obama Ebola" is underperforming since Obola only killed one person in Texas, because "they" are not worthy.
(Obola: Art Thou Dying Properly?). Ok, ok, it is a health issue, so what does that have to do with an enemy the Pentagon should fear most?

We are getting there:
Pentagonia, capitol of Bullshitistan, well aware of the current political climate, has declared who its greatest enemy is, believing it is health care:
The U.S. military keeps searching the horizon for a peer competitor, the challenger that must be taken seriously. Is it China? What about an oil rich and resurgent Russia?

But the threat that is most likely to hobble U.S. military capabilities is not a peer competitor, rather it is health care.
(The Enemy the Pentagon Should Fear Most: Health Care, National Defense Magazine, emphasis added). We have been pointing out this very strange ideology for a while now, using "MOMCOM" symbolism to isolate the militant energy fighting against the middle class and poor in the United States.
(Your Health Is Their Number 1 Enemy?!, emphasis added). These psychopaths think that the American people should not have preventive health care, or any other form of health care for that matter.

Instead, since terrorists are killing almost 20 Americans a year we have to spend trillions every year to stop that carnage.

But we should spend zero on those things that are killing hundreds of thousands or millions of people.

We must do so with, among other things, all our "security agencies," or we could never waste enough money:
The cumulative increase in expenditures on US domestic homeland security over the decade since 9/11 exceeds one trillion dollars. It is clearly time to examine these massive expenditures applying risk assessment and cost-benefit approaches that have been standard for decades. Thus far, officials do not seem to have done so and have engaged in various forms of probability neglect by focusing on worst case scenarios; adding, rather than multiplying, the probabilities; assessing relative, rather than absolute, risk; and inflating terrorist capacities and the importance of potential terrorist targets. We find that enhanced expenditures have been excessive: to be deemed cost-effective in analyses that substantially bias the consideration toward the opposite conclusion, they would have to deter, prevent, foil, or protect against 1,667 otherwise successful Times-Square type attacks per year, or more than four per day. Although there are emotional and political pressures on the terrorism issue, this does not relieve politicians and bureaucrats of the fundamental responsibility of informing the public of the limited risk that terrorism presents and of seeking to expend funds wisely. Moreover, political concerns may be over-wrought: restrained reaction has often proved to be entirely acceptable politically.
...
There's a certain blindness that comes from worst-case thinking. An extension of the precautionary principle, it involves imagining the worst possible outcome and then acting as if it were a certainty. It substitutes imagination for thinking, speculation for risk analysis and fear for reason. It fosters powerlessness and vulnerability and magnifies social paralysis. And it makes us more vulnerable to the effects of terrorism.
...
It is common to have suspicious thoughts or worries about other people from time to time. These fears are described as paranoid when they are exaggerated and not based in fact. There are three key features of paranoid thoughts:
  • you fear that something bad will happen
  • you think that others are responsible
  • your belief is exaggerated or unfounded.
...[Meanwhile, the reality is:]
  • You are 35,079 times more likely to die from heart disease than from a terrorist
  • You are 33,842 times more likely to die from cancer than from a terrorist
  • obesity is 5,882 to 23,528 times more likely to kill you than a terrorist
  • you are 5,882 times more likely to die from medical error than terrorism
  • you’re 4,706 times more likely to drink yourself to death than die from terrorism
  • you are 1,904 times more likely to die from a car accident than from a terrorist
  • your meds are thousands of times more likely to kill you than Al Qaeda
  • you’re 2,059 times more likely to kill yourself than die at the hand of a terrorist
  • you’re 452 times more likely to die from risky sexual behavior than terrorism
  • you’re 353 times more likely to fall to your death ... than die in a terrorist attack
  • you are 271 times more likely to die from a workplace accident than terrorism
  • you are 187 times more likely to starve to death in America than be killed by terrorism
  • you’re about 22 times more likely to die from a brain-eating zombie parasite than a terrorist
  • you were more than 9 times more likely to be killed by a law enforcement officer than by a terrorist
  • [being] “crushed to death by ... [TV] or furniture” [as likely as] being killed by terrorist
  • Americans are 110 times more likely to die from contaminated food than terrorism
  • you are more likely to be killed by a toddler than a terrorist
  • you [are] four times more likely to be struck by lightning than killed by a terrorist
(Terrorism We Can Believe In? - 3). Nevertheless the Ayn Rand worshippers who lead the legislative branch just voted to get rid of affordable health care:
"In a 2005 speech to a group of Rand devotees called the Atlas Society, [House Speaker] Ryan said that Rand was required reading for his office staff and interns. “The reason I got involved in public service, by and large, if I had to credit one thinker, one person, it would be Ayn Rand,” he told the group." - (Ayn Rand: Patron Saint of The Plutocracy - 4)

"House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) admitted over the weekend that Republicans had passed a bill to repeal President Barack Obama's health care reform law without offering an alternative." (Crooks and Liars, Jan. 2016)
Team Bravo also says that we must rid ourselves of this healthcare enemy with, among other things, all our "intelligent agencies" ... or we could never waste enough money:
* Some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States.

* An estimated 854,000 people, nearly 1.5 times as many people as live in Washington, D.C., hold top-secret security clearances.

* In Washington and the surrounding area, 33 building complexes for top-secret intelligence work are under construction or have been built since September 2001. Together they occupy the equivalent of almost three Pentagons or 22 U.S. Capitol buildings - about 17 million square feet of space.

* Many security and intelligence agencies do the same work, creating redundancy and waste. For example, 51 federal organizations and military commands, operating in 15 U.S. cities, track the flow of money to and from terrorist networks.

* Analysts who make sense of documents and conversations obtained by foreign and domestic spying share their judgment by publishing 50,000 intelligence reports each year - a volume so large that many are routinely ignored.
(The Homeland: Big Brother Plutonomy). It is beyond belief what these psychopaths come up with.

There are many Agnotology generators in the U.S. (Agnotology: The Surge, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17), which incessantly create dementia within our society (Etiology of Social Dementia, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13).

So, somebody has to warn somebody about the real and present dangers (Dr. Hansen Arrested at Obama's House, Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion).

The previous post in this series is here.