Thursday, December 1, 2016

The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 4

Fig. 1


I. The Background


The graph at Fig. 1 shows how blinding and deceiving the concept of the ocean being like a bathtub really is ("the bathtub model").

It is a graph of actual historical records maintained by the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), a service that regular readers are well aware of, but I provide a link so as to inform any new readers who want to look up the historical data with just a click of the mouse (list is below in Section III).


II. Strong Historical
Sea Level Rise


Let's talk about that graph of history which contains radical information that is covered up by the bathtub modelers who speak of 1, 2, or 3 millimeters a year,  while hawking the global mean average sea level (GMSL) pabulum.

Fig. 2
Just to help you grasp it outright, notice that, historically, at tide gauges, a ~293 mm sea level rise took place between 1858 (@ -154.785 mm) and 2014 (@ 137.911 mm), a span of 156 years (~1.9 mm yr).

That is, circa 1858 the sea level was down -154.785 mm but rose to 137.911 mm by 2014 (from -154.785 to zero is a rise of 154.785 mm, then the additional rise of 137.911 mm totals to 292.696 mm).

In 2015, the level dropped from 137.911 down to 117.71, so, if we were to experience that history again, it would rise from 117.71 to 410.406 (~1.4 ft.).

The GMSL rate of sea level rise, today, is said to be in the neighborhood of 3 mm a year, which is way above that historical rate (e.g. Fig. 2).

The Fig. 1 graph also shows that the rate at the tide gauge location is not where the highest sea level rise takes place.

Several deep ocean latitudes & longitudes have that distinction (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3).


III. The List of Tide Gauge Stations
in the Golden 23 Zones


Fig. 3 Golden 23 Locations
The graph in Fig. 1 which I have been talking about is composed of historical records from WOD Zones containing 302 tide gauge stations.

The ice melt volume and percentage, which are also graphed at Fig. 1, are Dredd Blog calculations based on the same historical sea levels recorded in the PSMSL database.

That list of tide gauge records, with individual links to PSMSL tide gauge station information, is shown in Fig. 3.

Note that, in the list below, "Stn#" in red letters indicates one of those "golden 23" tide gauge stations.

Note also, that there are 25 of those in red because two of the locations (Auckland, Wellington) have had two numbers, also shown in Fig. 3.

Anyway, here is the list of the relevant WOD zones, all stations within those zones, the "golden 23 in red letters", and last but not least, a link (blue numbers) to each tide gauge station @ the PSMSL website:

Zone [7500] had [58] stations:

Stn# 916, Stn# 432, Stn# 435, Stn# 1793, Stn# 1109, Stn# 944, Stn# 1281, Stn# 361, Stn# 21, Stn# 1074, Stn# 802, Stn# 1526, Stn# 190, Stn# 95, Stn# 1505, Stn# 286, Stn# 350, Stn# 2280, Stn# 2278, Stn# 2279, Stn# 1878, Stn# 1773, Stn# 2282, Stn# 2283, Stn# 982, Stn# 202, Stn# 2284, Stn# 1214, Stn# 1758, Stn# 2011, Stn# 257, Stn# 2285, Stn# 1832, Stn# 967, Stn# 1732, Stn# 66, Stn# 1700, Stn# 939, Stn# 1731, Stn# 1771, Stn# 5, Stn# 1854, Stn# 765, Stn# 15, Stn# 1774, Stn# 936, Stn# 1794, Stn# 1215, Stn# 755, Stn# 1772, Stn# 1491, Stn# 1112, Stn# 314, Stn# 1775, Stn# 1867, Stn# 861, Stn# 219, Stn# 1856

Zone [7400] had [35] stations:

Stn# 467, Stn# 454, Stn# 1347, Stn# 1294, Stn# 1, Stn# 1301, Stn# 1247, Stn# 1921, Stn# 457, Stn# 1078, Stn# 1747, Stn# 466, Stn# 1915, Stn# 459, Stn# 1801, Stn# 1918, Stn# 469, Stn# 1795, Stn# 1482, Stn# 791, Stn# 1402, Stn# 561, Stn# 1806, Stn# 485, Stn# 1051, Stn# 1807, Stn# 1871, Stn# 484, Stn# 763, Stn# 1808, Stn# 2053, Stn# 1897, Stn# 483, Stn# 1898, Stn# 1855

Zone [7312] had [7] stations:

Stn# 2125, Stn# 1394, Stn# 10, Stn# 437, Stn# 1663, Stn# 1352, Stn# 508

Zone [7311] had [11] stations:

Stn# 795, Stn# 1457, Stn# 1013, Stn# 2126, Stn# 377, Stn# 245, Stn# 717, Stn# 766, Stn# 883, Stn# 256, Stn# 158

Zone [7308] had [13] stations:

Stn# 1884, Stn# 1715, Stn# 1156, Stn# 2215, Stn# 246, Stn# 1641, Stn# 1136, Stn# 1670, Stn# 316, Stn# 716, Stn# 112, Stn# 395, Stn# 1537

Zone [7300] had [30] stations:

Stn# 981, Stn# 506, Stn# 52, Stn# 1336, Stn# 1425, Stn# 1456, Stn# 162, Stn# 209, Stn# 985, Stn# 1883, Stn# 1809, Stn# 2047, Stn# 490, Stn# 2117, Stn# 2055, Stn# 488, Stn# 2054, Stn# 496, Stn# 1810, Stn# 1940, Stn# 1455, Stn# 2056, Stn# 1460, Stn# 208, Stn# 960, Stn# 1813, Stn# 2058, Stn# 2059, Stn# 498, Stn# 2057

Zone [7215] had [7] stations:

Stn# 2129, Stn# 756, Stn# 155, Stn# 823, Stn# 2273, Stn# 521, Stn# 2128

Zone [7208] had [27] stations:

Stn# 2286, Stn# 2289, Stn# 1297, Stn# 1909, Stn# 690, Stn# 526, Stn# 2296, Stn# 1193, Stn# 1714, Stn# 199, Stn# 428, Stn# 1638, Stn# 520, Stn# 1106, Stn# 1107, Stn# 188, Stn# 1701, Stn# 1187, Stn# 1424, Stn# 363, Stn# 1717, Stn# 1696, Stn# 1669, Stn# 270, Stn# 1182, Stn# 1858, Stn# 2123

Zone [7201] had [16] stations:

Stn# 593, Stn# 1710, Stn# 2048, Stn# 2051, Stn# 2066, Stn# 585, Stn# 568, Stn# 2064, Stn# 2065, Stn# 303, Stn# 1803, Stn# 2050, Stn# 590, Stn# 565, Stn# 1802, Stn# 2049

Zone [7007] had [7] stations:

Stn# 456, Stn# 639, Stn# 163, Stn# 581, Stn# 1783, Stn# 1530, Stn# 169

Zone [5305] had [12] stations:

Stn# 223, Stn# 857, Stn# 819, Stn# 1542, Stn# 897, Stn# 157, Stn# 832, Stn# 864, Stn# 433, Stn# 431, Stn# 434, Stn# 764

Zone [3417] had [11] stations:

Stn# 221, Stn# 500, Stn# 247, Stn# 259, Stn# 998, Stn# 1643, Stn# 252, Stn# 136, Stn# 993, Stn# 1004, Stn# 787

Zone [3317] had [9] stations:

Stn# 217, Stn# 150, Stn# 978, Stn# 1590, Stn# 1613, Stn# 1750, Stn# 1621, Stn# 996, Stn# 1065

Zone [1401] had [41] stations:

Stn# 761, Stn# 353, Stn# 1859, Stn# 1577, Stn# 1578, Stn# 685, Stn# 352, Stn# 1574, Stn# 1706, Stn# 1718, Stn# 1945, Stn# 760, Stn# 2080, Stn# 106, Stn# 129, Stn# 2092, Stn# 105, Stn# 2086, Stn# 2082, Stn# 103, Stn# 2095, Stn# 990, Stn# 2096, Stn# 2075, Stn# 1262, Stn# 2087, Stn# 972, Stn# 2097, Stn# 101, Stn# 2098, Stn# 100, Stn# 2144, Stn# 87, Stn# 2100, Stn# 39, Stn# 168, Stn# 154, Stn# 2099, Stn# 1075, Stn# 1009, Stn# 1817

Zone [1400] had [18] stations:

Stn# 474, Stn# 1383, Stn# 453, Stn# 1469, Stn# 958, Stn# 61, Stn# 980, Stn# 1468, Stn# 1929, Stn# 109, Stn# 2084, Stn# 108, Stn# 2078, Stn# 59, Stn# 2090, Stn# 788, Stn# 1811, Stn# 1764

Total Stations: 302


IV. The Rest of the Story


As I mentioned above, the tide gauge records do not contain the direct history of the largest sea level rise, because the location of the highest sea level rise is in the deep oceans, far away from the sea coasts where tide gauge stations are located.

Nevertheless, those deep ocean sea level heights can be calculated in several ways (e.g. formulas for curves, arcs, hemispheres, and spheres, together with latitude, longitude calculus values) from the historical tide gauge records.

The two top panels on Fig. 1 show sea level at the tide gauges (panel 1, upper left) and at the deep ocean location (panel 2, upper right).

The difference in sea level is about 71 mm (i.e. the deep ocean sea level is ~71 mm higher).


V. "In The Year 2525" 2100


The graph at Fig. 2 is based on the IPCC projections for sea level rise up to the year 2100 (ice sheet volume/mass loss too).

The figures are way too low according to many scientists (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion, 2, 3), but I am only using IPCC projection level numbers to illustrate the point that the bathtub model is mythical in many ways.

The difference in sea level (using IPCC expectations) in the year 2100 will be 1.3 ft. (deep ocean sea level will be ~1.3 ft. higher than the sea level at the coasts where the tide gauges are located).

According to Dr. Hansen et alia, and Dredd Blog software modules that are not limited to the low IPCC projections, the sea level rise will be much higher than currently projected by linear IPCC oriented models (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, East Antarctica Surface Melt).


VI. Conclusion


Your life and mine are subject to an acceleration for which there is no bathtub knob to exercise control over sea level with (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

It is a matter of PI.

The previous post in this series is here.

Trump Tower

The Times They Are A Changin'
by Bob Dylan

" Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown

And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone

If your time to you is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’ or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’ "






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