Friday, December 2, 2016

Will Elections Cure The Disease? - 3

Fig. 1 General James Mattis (Ret.)
In the previous post in this series I wondered about the problem the military is going to have with the climate change denier triumph in the elections (assuming the one with the least popular votes wins the recount).

The video of Professor Wilkerson at the end of this post points out that it is possible that a military coup could take place considering the dire national security ramifications of denying the greatest threat to national security.

What is not clear to me, at this time, is why the republicans in the Senate and the House are so happy with General Mattis as the nominated candidate for Secretary of Defense.

I say that because General Mattis understands military doctrine on climate change:
Retired US Marine Corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney said the willingness of Donald Trump’s head of defence to resist ideological pressure to reject climate science could have a profound effect on the nation’s security.

“There’s a fair percentage of conflicts today that have a linkage to climate change that was not previously there,” he said. These include the Arab Spring and Syrian civil war – two insurrections that define world politics and security today.

Global warming also plays a part in long-term military planning and identification of future risks areas. For almost a decade, US defence department reports have recognised climate change as a “threat multiplier for instability”. As such, it is now routinely addressed in military strategy.
Cheney, who had a 30-year career in the military, said he did not know of a single top general – those who might have access to the White House or defence secretary – who did not understand and accept the risks of climate change.

“I don’t know anybody who fits that paradigm, I don’t. But being candid. I’m sure there are some there. And maybe there are some who kept their mouth shut not to go against administration policy, who now will feel I don’t have to toe their line anymore. I can’t come out and say I don’t believe in this stuff,” he said.
(General Mattis Gets Climate Change). The climate change issue, for obvious reasons, is part of military training now:
A new directive says forces need to undertake joint training exercises with allies to “enhance capacity” and “improve tactics” for tackling impacts linked to global warming.

“Mission planning and execution must include identification and assessment of the effects of climate change on the DoD [department of defence] mission,” it reads.

Under DOD DIRECTIVE 4715.21 chiefs of staff, equipment buyers and health advisers will need to integrate climate change into any new purchases, missions or infrastructure plans.

The document, which is signed off by Robert Work, deputy secretary of Defense, calls for greater work with climate scientists to “reduce risk and promote mission execution.”

Planners must “integrate climate change considerations into mission area analyses and acquisition strategies across the life cycle of weapons systems, platforms, and equipment.”

Medical staff will need to update training to “address effects on personnel, including changes in extreme temperatures, precipitation patterns, and disease vector distribution.”

Despite stiff opposition from many Republicans, the Pentagon has released a stream of climate-related warnings, research and adopted new clean energy policies in the past eight years.

In 2014 chiefs of staff said it was “overwhelmingly clear” that climate change posed a security risk to the country.

Last year the NATO military alliance war-gamed the use of wind and solar energy systems, while the US Navy recently launched a ‘Green Fleet’ partly powered by biofuels.
(US Military Trains For Climate Change). One way of describing the situation, IMO and in the opinion of many others, is:  The Most Dangerous Country on Earth.

Other related links:
Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity, 2 (Dredd Blog 2009 citing: think tank report by military advisers, PDF)

National Security & The Threat of Climate Change

Military Leaders Agree with Pentagon: Climate Change an “Immediate Risk to National Security”

General Ron Keys Talks Climate Change and Security in Iowa

General Keys: The military thinks climate change is serious

Global Warming Research in Danger as Trump Appoints Climate Skeptic to NASA Team

Rockefeller [Standard Oil] Descendants Call ExxonMobil 'Morally Bankrupt' Over Climate Change

Sanders burns House committee for sharing Breitbart article denying climate change

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

"We spend more on national security than the rest of the world combined ..."

"The Military is the lead federal agency on climate change ... and that is ... extremely dangerous ... we may lose the republic ..." - Professor Wilkerson (video)

Thursday, December 1, 2016

The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 4

Fig. 1

I. The Background

The graph at Fig. 1 shows how blinding and deceiving the concept of the ocean being like a bathtub really is ("the bathtub model").

It is a graph of actual historical records maintained by the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), a service that regular readers are well aware of, but I provide a link so as to inform any new readers who want to look up the historical data with just a click of the mouse (list is below in Section III).

II. Strong Historical
Sea Level Rise

Let's talk about that graph of history which contains radical information that is covered up by the bathtub modelers who speak of 1, 2, or 3 millimeters a year,  while hawking the global mean average sea level (GMSL) pabulum.

Fig. 2
Just to help you grasp it outright, notice that, historically, at tide gauges, a ~293 mm sea level rise took place between 1858 (@ -154.785 mm) and 2014 (@ 137.911 mm), a span of 156 years (~1.9 mm yr).

That is, circa 1858 the sea level was down -154.785 mm but rose to 137.911 mm by 2014 (from -154.785 to zero is a rise of 154.785 mm, then the additional rise of 137.911 mm totals to 292.696 mm).

In 2015, the level dropped from 137.911 down to 117.71, so, if we were to experience that history again, it would rise from 117.71 to 410.406 (~1.4 ft.).

The GMSL rate of sea level rise, today, is said to be in the neighborhood of 3 mm a year, which is way above that historical rate (e.g. Fig. 2).

The Fig. 1 graph also shows that the rate at the tide gauge location is not where the highest sea level rise takes place.

Several deep ocean latitudes & longitudes have that distinction (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3).

III. The List of Tide Gauge Stations
in the Golden 23 Zones

Fig. 3 Golden 23 Locations
The graph in Fig. 1 which I have been talking about is composed of historical records from WOD Zones containing 302 tide gauge stations.

The ice melt volume and percentage, which are also graphed at Fig. 1, are Dredd Blog calculations based on the same historical sea levels recorded in the PSMSL database.

That list of tide gauge records, with individual links to PSMSL tide gauge station information, is shown in Fig. 3.

Note that, in the list below, "Stn#" in red letters indicates one of those "golden 23" tide gauge stations.

Note also, that there are 25 of those in red because two of the locations (Auckland, Wellington) have had two numbers, also shown in Fig. 3.

Anyway, here is the list of the relevant WOD zones, all stations within those zones, the "golden 23 in red letters", and last but not least, a link (blue numbers) to each tide gauge station @ the PSMSL website:

Zone [7500] had [58] stations:

Stn# 916, Stn# 432, Stn# 435, Stn# 1793, Stn# 1109, Stn# 944, Stn# 1281, Stn# 361, Stn# 21, Stn# 1074, Stn# 802, Stn# 1526, Stn# 190, Stn# 95, Stn# 1505, Stn# 286, Stn# 350, Stn# 2280, Stn# 2278, Stn# 2279, Stn# 1878, Stn# 1773, Stn# 2282, Stn# 2283, Stn# 982, Stn# 202, Stn# 2284, Stn# 1214, Stn# 1758, Stn# 2011, Stn# 257, Stn# 2285, Stn# 1832, Stn# 967, Stn# 1732, Stn# 66, Stn# 1700, Stn# 939, Stn# 1731, Stn# 1771, Stn# 5, Stn# 1854, Stn# 765, Stn# 15, Stn# 1774, Stn# 936, Stn# 1794, Stn# 1215, Stn# 755, Stn# 1772, Stn# 1491, Stn# 1112, Stn# 314, Stn# 1775, Stn# 1867, Stn# 861, Stn# 219, Stn# 1856

Zone [7400] had [35] stations:

Stn# 467, Stn# 454, Stn# 1347, Stn# 1294, Stn# 1, Stn# 1301, Stn# 1247, Stn# 1921, Stn# 457, Stn# 1078, Stn# 1747, Stn# 466, Stn# 1915, Stn# 459, Stn# 1801, Stn# 1918, Stn# 469, Stn# 1795, Stn# 1482, Stn# 791, Stn# 1402, Stn# 561, Stn# 1806, Stn# 485, Stn# 1051, Stn# 1807, Stn# 1871, Stn# 484, Stn# 763, Stn# 1808, Stn# 2053, Stn# 1897, Stn# 483, Stn# 1898, Stn# 1855

Zone [7312] had [7] stations:

Stn# 2125, Stn# 1394, Stn# 10, Stn# 437, Stn# 1663, Stn# 1352, Stn# 508

Zone [7311] had [11] stations:

Stn# 795, Stn# 1457, Stn# 1013, Stn# 2126, Stn# 377, Stn# 245, Stn# 717, Stn# 766, Stn# 883, Stn# 256, Stn# 158

Zone [7308] had [13] stations:

Stn# 1884, Stn# 1715, Stn# 1156, Stn# 2215, Stn# 246, Stn# 1641, Stn# 1136, Stn# 1670, Stn# 316, Stn# 716, Stn# 112, Stn# 395, Stn# 1537

Zone [7300] had [30] stations:

Stn# 981, Stn# 506, Stn# 52, Stn# 1336, Stn# 1425, Stn# 1456, Stn# 162, Stn# 209, Stn# 985, Stn# 1883, Stn# 1809, Stn# 2047, Stn# 490, Stn# 2117, Stn# 2055, Stn# 488, Stn# 2054, Stn# 496, Stn# 1810, Stn# 1940, Stn# 1455, Stn# 2056, Stn# 1460, Stn# 208, Stn# 960, Stn# 1813, Stn# 2058, Stn# 2059, Stn# 498, Stn# 2057

Zone [7215] had [7] stations:

Stn# 2129, Stn# 756, Stn# 155, Stn# 823, Stn# 2273, Stn# 521, Stn# 2128

Zone [7208] had [27] stations:

Stn# 2286, Stn# 2289, Stn# 1297, Stn# 1909, Stn# 690, Stn# 526, Stn# 2296, Stn# 1193, Stn# 1714, Stn# 199, Stn# 428, Stn# 1638, Stn# 520, Stn# 1106, Stn# 1107, Stn# 188, Stn# 1701, Stn# 1187, Stn# 1424, Stn# 363, Stn# 1717, Stn# 1696, Stn# 1669, Stn# 270, Stn# 1182, Stn# 1858, Stn# 2123

Zone [7201] had [16] stations:

Stn# 593, Stn# 1710, Stn# 2048, Stn# 2051, Stn# 2066, Stn# 585, Stn# 568, Stn# 2064, Stn# 2065, Stn# 303, Stn# 1803, Stn# 2050, Stn# 590, Stn# 565, Stn# 1802, Stn# 2049

Zone [7007] had [7] stations:

Stn# 456, Stn# 639, Stn# 163, Stn# 581, Stn# 1783, Stn# 1530, Stn# 169

Zone [5305] had [12] stations:

Stn# 223, Stn# 857, Stn# 819, Stn# 1542, Stn# 897, Stn# 157, Stn# 832, Stn# 864, Stn# 433, Stn# 431, Stn# 434, Stn# 764

Zone [3417] had [11] stations:

Stn# 221, Stn# 500, Stn# 247, Stn# 259, Stn# 998, Stn# 1643, Stn# 252, Stn# 136, Stn# 993, Stn# 1004, Stn# 787

Zone [3317] had [9] stations:

Stn# 217, Stn# 150, Stn# 978, Stn# 1590, Stn# 1613, Stn# 1750, Stn# 1621, Stn# 996, Stn# 1065

Zone [1401] had [41] stations:

Stn# 761, Stn# 353, Stn# 1859, Stn# 1577, Stn# 1578, Stn# 685, Stn# 352, Stn# 1574, Stn# 1706, Stn# 1718, Stn# 1945, Stn# 760, Stn# 2080, Stn# 106, Stn# 129, Stn# 2092, Stn# 105, Stn# 2086, Stn# 2082, Stn# 103, Stn# 2095, Stn# 990, Stn# 2096, Stn# 2075, Stn# 1262, Stn# 2087, Stn# 972, Stn# 2097, Stn# 101, Stn# 2098, Stn# 100, Stn# 2144, Stn# 87, Stn# 2100, Stn# 39, Stn# 168, Stn# 154, Stn# 2099, Stn# 1075, Stn# 1009, Stn# 1817

Zone [1400] had [18] stations:

Stn# 474, Stn# 1383, Stn# 453, Stn# 1469, Stn# 958, Stn# 61, Stn# 980, Stn# 1468, Stn# 1929, Stn# 109, Stn# 2084, Stn# 108, Stn# 2078, Stn# 59, Stn# 2090, Stn# 788, Stn# 1811, Stn# 1764

Total Stations: 302

IV. The Rest of the Story

As I mentioned above, the tide gauge records do not contain the direct history of the largest sea level rise, because the location of the highest sea level rise is in the deep oceans, far away from the sea coasts where tide gauge stations are located.

Nevertheless, those deep ocean sea level heights can be calculated in several ways (e.g. formulas for curves, arcs, hemispheres, and spheres, together with latitude, longitude calculus values) from the historical tide gauge records.

The two top panels on Fig. 1 show sea level at the tide gauges (panel 1, upper left) and at the deep ocean location (panel 2, upper right).

The difference in sea level is about 71 mm (i.e. the deep ocean sea level is ~71 mm higher).

V. "In The Year 2525" 2100

The graph at Fig. 2 is based on the IPCC projections for sea level rise up to the year 2100 (ice sheet volume/mass loss too).

The figures are way too low according to many scientists (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion, 2, 3), but I am only using IPCC projection level numbers to illustrate the point that the bathtub model is mythical in many ways.

The difference in sea level (using IPCC expectations) in the year 2100 will be 1.3 ft. (deep ocean sea level will be ~1.3 ft. higher than the sea level at the coasts where the tide gauges are located).

According to Dr. Hansen et alia, and Dredd Blog software modules that are not limited to the low IPCC projections, the sea level rise will be much higher than currently projected by linear IPCC oriented models (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, East Antarctica Surface Melt).

VI. Conclusion

Your life and mine are subject to an acceleration for which there is no bathtub knob to exercise control over sea level with (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

It is a matter of PI.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Trump Tower

The Times They Are A Changin'
by Bob Dylan

" Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown

And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone

If your time to you is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’ or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’ "

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Will Elections Cure The Disease? - 2

Fig. 1 Enhanced USGS table
ONE. About six years ago, in the first post of this series, I asked the question presented in the title.

The question tends to conjure up the notion that for every cure there is a disease (or is it the other way around?).

Historically, as concerns civilization cures, that has not been the case.

Civilizations have all gone down due to murder or suicide, the latter holding the lead at this time ("In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee).

We sometimes wonder if our nuclear civilization is above all that:
As time goes on in the USA, fewer and fewer people think that election time is a time to bring some cure to the governing process.

It is more often than not a time to express anger.

A time to throw some bums out in anger, not really contemplating the consequences of simply venting anger so much that worse candidates replace the current losers.

Is this a symptom of something?

If I were to say that ... more U.S. citizens will begin to lose their minds than will lose homes, jobs, or health care, would you believe it?
(Will Elections Cure The Disease?). Remember that one of the technical characteristics of cultural dementia, like individual dementia, is being unaware of one's location (You Are Here).

The current election aftermath season supercharges the notion that entire cultures and even civilizations can become demented to the point of being lost in space (in the sense of not even knowing which planet one inhabits):
Donald Trump Still Thinks Climate Change Is ‘A Bunch Of Bunk’

Priebus confirms that climate denial will be the official policy of Trump’s administration
The greatest threat to national security (in the thinking of the military and the scientific community) is global warming induced climate change:
Every branch of the United States Military is worried about climate change. They have been since well before it became controversial.
At a time when Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bush 41, and even British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, called for binding international protocols to control greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. Military was seriously studying global warming in order to determine what actions they could take to prepare for the change in threats that our military will face in the future.

The Center for Naval Analysis has had its Military Advisory Board examining the national security implications of climate change for many years. Lead by Army General Paul Kern, the Military Advisory Board is a group of 16 retired flag-level officers from all branches of the Service.

This is not a group normally considered to be liberal activists and fear-mongers.
[the article quotes Eugene Skolnikoff:] "The central problem is that outside the security sector, policy processes confronting issues with substantial uncertainty do not normally yield policy that has high economic or political costs. This is especially true when the uncertainty extends not only to the issues themselves, but also to the measures to avert them or deal with their consequences.

The climate change issue illustrates – in fact exaggerates – all the elements of this central problem. Indeed, no major action is likely to be taken until those uncertainties are substantially reduced, and probably not before evidence of warming and its effects are actually visible. Unfortunately, any increase in temperature will be irreversible by the time the danger becomes obvious enough to permit political action.
(Does Our Military Know Something We Don't?, emphasis added). Consider this in the context of the shocking statement by Professor Wilkerson:
"The Military is the lead federal agency on climate change ... and that is ... extremely dangerous ... we may lose the republic ..."
(The Authoritarianism of Climate Change - 2, video at bottom). According to Professor Wilkerson, the military will coalesce into the Sun Tzu kind of coup they teach at the War College (Is War An Art or Is War A Disease?).

Fig. 2 What Will Be Censored?
TWO.  So, if you haven't guessed what I am getting at yet, I am getting at "when will the military purge the denier sections of government or instead purge the climate science ?"

The state of the union (SOTU) is that the country has been invaded in a manner that I have characterized as an invasion by Greenland & Antarctica (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3, 4; Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion).

So, today let's talk about the ~three feet or ~1 meter aspect of the situation, which is the point at which the Sun Tzu kind of coup may have to take place.

Fig. 3 220.7 mm (1.07 mm yr) & counting
THREE. Feet ... yes, ~three feet (~a meter) is the degree of sea level rise that will cause the beginning serious malfunctions of international and national infrastructure organs of international trade / intercourse (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 3).

That 3 foot quantity of sea level rise is only about 1% to 1.14% of the total ice of the ice sheets of the Cryosphere (Fig. 1); the percentage depending on whether or not one includes ghost-water in the calculation  (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

Fig. 4 ice loss: ~88,813.5 km3
The Cryosphere is composed of the ice on Greenland, Antarctica, and land glaciers.

That is the same one and only Cryosphere that is and has been melting for a long time (Humble Oil-Qaeda).

The Dredd Blog software module, which uses PSMSL tide gauge station records, calculates the 1807 - 2014 ice loss amount of the Cryosphere to be ~88,813.5 km3 (Fig. 4) using the "Golden 23 Zones" (Calling All Cars: The Case of the "Missing Six" - 5).

Those are the WOD zones in which the "Golden 23" tide gauge stations are located.

Fig. 5 ~0.28% approaching 1% to 1.14%
In the sea level realm of science those tide gauge station records provide a global indication and useful view of sea level change.

Those tide gauge stations obviously do not directly measure the highest sea levels.

That is because those highest sea levels take place out in the deep ocean far away from coasts of the large land masses where those tide gauges must be placed (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3).

Nevertheless, they provide a platform of data from which to calculate the highest sea levels (think formulas for arcs, hemispheres, and spheres).

The results of those calculations are also helpful for calculating the amount of ice lost from the Cryosphere from 1807-2014 (Fig. 5).

Notice that in Fig. 4 when the sea level graphed amount falls to its lowest point circa 1866, the ice loss amount increases to its highest graphed amount, which is counter intuitive but normal (Proof of Concept - 3, The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points - 2).

The graph of ice loss percentages per year is shown on Fig. 5, which totals to about 0.28%, which means that we not quite a third of the way to the 1% to 1.14% threshold yet.

But, even with that seemingly small amount, right now military installations in some locations are beginning to flood, and to be abandoned at other locations, according to Professor Wilkerson (second video below).

FOUR. Elections will not solve this problem, so, we must ponder whether or not the military will "step into the vacuum" caused by what they consider to be a clueless civil government.

A clueless civil government that has deceived sixty some million folks who, in effect, voted this year to deny the existence of global warming induced climate change (Etiology of Social Dementia, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14; The Agnotology of Sea Level Rise Via Ice Melt).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Changing of the Guards
by Bob Dylan
(lyrics here)


"Gentlemen, he said
I don’t need your organization, I’ve shined your shoes
I’ve moved your mountains and marked your cards
But Eden is burning, either brace yourself for elimination
Or else your hearts must have the courage for the changing of the guards

Peace will come
With tranquillity and splendor on the wheels of fire
But will bring us no reward when her false idols fall
And cruel death surrenders with its pale ghost retreating
Between the King and the Queen of Swords