Saturday, January 5, 2019

On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 40

It never stops
Today I present a proper replacement for the erroneous hypothesis that "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise" and the erroneous hypothesis that "thermal expansion is a major cause of sea level rise" and the current hypothesis (which lessens the percentage) urging that "thermal expansion is about one third of global mean average sea level rise".

Regular readers know that I have been criticizing the foundation and application of that erroneous hypothesis for quite a while (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39).

In reply to those who ask "What melt water source can replace the erroneous hypothesis Dredd?" I have answered "the ones that have been overlooked" (e.g. The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9NASA Busts The Ghost; and more recently The Ghost Plumes, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

In a recent post I pointed out:
My ultimate intent is to find alternate sources to replace the "missing" water when the erroneous (thermal expansion as "the major" or "a major" cause of sea level rise) hypothesis is no longer advocated ...
(The Ghost Plumes - 5). After advancing the ghost plumes idea, I decided to show how little it would take to supplant the current downgraded assertion that "one-third of global mean average sea level rise" (GMSLR) is caused by thermal expansion.

In addition to previous posts, today I do so with some details about the ghost plumes hypothesis.

So, in the following tables notice how so little melt needs to take place in the zones of each Antarctic area in order to equate to one third of GMSLR:

First, note that:

RE: Global Mean Sea Level Rise (GMSLR)
(361,841 m3 of melt water raises GMSL 1 mm)
(current total GMSLR is ~3.4 mm yr; 1/3 of 3.4 is 1.13 mm yr)
(410,086.47 m3 of melt water is 1/3 of GMSLR yr)

RE: Assumed Plume Sea Level Rise (PSLR)
(1/3 (1.33 mm yr) GMSLR is due to Antarctica Plume Melt water)

RE: Relevant Antarctica Grounding Line (AGL)
(length: 47,455,400 m) [see The Ghost Plumes - 6]

Thus:

West Indian Ocean (Area A)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(14.1758%; 58133.1 m3 yr)

Zone # Zone GL Length (m)Zone% of APGLZone's Plume Volume
3603 948062 m 14.093 8192.69 m3 yr
22.4304 m3 day
0.934598 m3 hr
3604 1.07035e+06 m 15.9108 9249.44 m3 yr
25.3236 m3 day
1.05515 m3 hr
3605 1.23595e+06 m 18.3725 10680.5 m3 yr
29.2416 m3 day
1.2184 m3 hr
3606 1.09032e+06 m 16.2077 9422.01 m3 yr
25.7961 m3 day
1.07484 m3 hr
3700 714801 m 10.6256 6176.96 m3 yr
16.9116 m3 day
0.70465 m3 hr
3701 858463 m 12.7611 7418.42 m3 yr
20.3105 m3 day
0.846272 m3 hr
3702 809244 m 12.0295 6993.09 m3 yr
19.146 m3 day
0.797752 m3 hr


East Indian Ocean (Area B)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(16.6161%; 68140.2 m3 yr)

Zone # Zone GL Length (m)Zone% of APGLZone's Plume Volume
3607 930701 m 11.8031 8042.67 m3 yr
22.0196 m3 day
0.917484 m3 hr
3608 650146 m 8.24512 5618.25 m3 yr
15.3819 m3 day
0.640913 m3 hr
3609 771646 m 9.78598 6668.19 m3 yr
18.2565 m3 day
0.760688 m3 hr
3610 761075 m 9.65192 6576.84 m3 yr
18.0064 m3 day
0.750267 m3 hr
3611 1.32574e+06 m 16.813 11456.4 m3 yr
31.3659 m3 day
1.30691 m3 hr
3612 846227 m 10.7318 7312.68 m3 yr
20.021 m3 day
0.83421 m3 hr
3613 707331 m 8.97034 6112.41 m3 yr
16.7349 m3 day
0.697286 m3 hr
3614 969389 m 12.2937 8376.99 m3 yr
22.9349 m3 day
0.955623 m3 hr
3615 922960 m 11.7049 7975.77 m3 yr
21.8365 m3 day
0.909853 m3 hr


Ross Sea (Area C)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(20.3385%; 83405.5 m3 yr)

Zone # Zone GL Length (m)Zone% of APGLZone's Plume Volume
3616 61040.3 m 0.632429 527.481 m3 yr
1.44416 m3 day
0.0601735 m3 hr
3716 4.32396e+06 m 44.7999 37365.6 m3 yr
102.301 m3 day
4.26256 m3 hr
3717 237006 m 2.45558 2048.09 m3 yr
5.60737 m3 day
0.23364 m3 hr
3816 1.05052e+06 m 10.8843 9078.08 m3 yr
24.8544 m3 day
1.0356 m3 hr
3817 257695 m 2.66994 2226.87 m3 yr
6.09685 m3 day
0.254035 m3 hr
5715 1.11934e+06 m 11.5973 9672.79 m3 yr
26.4827 m3 day
1.10344 m3 hr
5815 1.21178e+06 m 12.5551 10471.6 m3 yr
28.6697 m3 day
1.19457 m3 hr
5816 896480 m 9.28829 7746.94 m3 yr
21.21 m3 day
0.883749 m3 hr
5817 493901 m 5.11723 4268.05 m3 yr
11.6853 m3 day
0.486887 m3 hr


Amundsen Sea (Area D)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(8.04768%; 33002.5 m3 yr)

Zone # Zone GL Length (m)Zone% of APGLZone's Plume Volume
5711 1.16371e+06 m 30.4711 10056.2 m3 yr
27.5324 m3 day
1.14718 m3 hr
5712 411150 m 10.7657 3552.96 m3 yr
9.72747 m3 day
0.405311 m3 hr
5713 483060 m 12.6487 4174.37 m3 yr
11.4288 m3 day
0.4762 m3 hr
5714 1.76114e+06 m 46.1145 15218.9 m3 yr
41.6671 m3 day
1.73613 m3 hr


Bellingshausen Sea (Area E)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(31.2306%; 128072 m3 yr)

Zone # Zone GL Length (m)Zone% of APGLZone's Plume Volume
5606 5.02076e+06 m 33.8769 43387 m3 yr
118.787 m3 day
4.94946 m3 hr
5706 3.22357e+06 m 21.7506 27856.5 m3 yr
76.267 m3 day
3.17779 m3 hr
5707 2.36998e+06 m 15.9911 20480.2 m3 yr
56.0718 m3 day
2.33632 m3 hr
5708 1.9667e+06 m 13.27 16995.3 m3 yr
46.5305 m3 day
1.93877 m3 hr
5709 889963 m 6.00491 7690.63 m3 yr
21.0558 m3 day
0.877325 m3 hr
5710 1.34962e+06 m 9.10638 11662.8 m3 yr
31.9309 m3 day
1.33045 m3 hr


Weddell Sea (Area F)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(9.5913%; 39332.6 m3 yr)

Zone # Zone GL Length (m)Zone% of APGLZone's Plume Volume
5605 789264 m 17.3404 6820.44 m3 yr
18.6733 m3 day
0.778056 m3 hr
5700 1.01235e+06 m 22.2417 8748.24 m3 yr
23.9514 m3 day
0.997974 m3 hr
5701 1.32577e+06 m 29.1276 11456.7 m3 yr
31.3666 m3 day
1.30694 m3 hr
5702 833240 m 18.3066 7200.45 m3 yr
19.7138 m3 day
0.821407 m3 hr
5703 573334 m 12.5963 4954.47 m3 yr
13.5646 m3 day
0.565192 m3 hr
5705 17640.5 m 0.387568 152.441 m3 yr
0.41736 m3 day
0.01739 m3 hr



The hourly amount of melt water required to be generated at most zones (to provide the one third of GMSLR alleged to be caused by thermal expansion) is less than what it takes to fill a hot tub.

We would become impatient waiting an hour for it to fill, because that is sooooo slow.

The required plume melt rate to add up to 1/3 of GMSLR is a very slow vertical plume, but it is a very wide plume.

The "take home", "the bottom line", and yes the gravamen of this is that it is not unreasonable to think that Antarctic thermal plumes are able to account for substantial amounts of melt water which add up to 1/3 of GMSLR (cf. In Pursuit of Plume Theory, 2, 3).

The previous post in this series is here.

Snoring While Woke

The mule-stubborn senate bully Mitch McConnell likes to think that he is ultimately aware when it comes to the U.S. Constitution.

"He is woke" his collaborators (at destroying American Government) in the senate are wont to say.

Actually, he is only snoring while "woke": 
"Every Bill which shall have passed the House of Representatives and the
Senate Jackass
Senate, shall, before it become a Law, be presented to the President of the United States: If he approve he shall sign it, but if not he shall return it, with his Objections to that House in which it shall have originated, who shall enter the Objections at large on their Journal, and proceed to reconsider it. If after such Reconsideration two thirds of that House shall agree to pass the Bill, it shall be sent, together with the Objections, to the other House, by which it shall likewise be reconsidered, and if approved by two thirds of that House, it shall become a Law. But in all such Cases the Votes of both Houses shall be determined by Yeas and Nays, and the Names of the Persons voting for and against the Bill shall be entered on the Journal of each House respectively. If any Bill shall not be returned by the President within ten Days (Sundays excepted) after it shall have been presented to him, the Same shall be a Law, in like Manner as if he had signed it, unless the Congress by their Adjournment prevent its Return, in which Case it shall not be a Law.
"
(U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 7, emphasis added). Mitch is snoring while woke when he sez "I won't present any bill to the president that he says he won't sign."

He thereby robs the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives of their right to do a veto override.

He robs the U.S. Constitution that requires all presidents to act on every bill within ten days.

He also likes to dictate which judges will be voted on, which violates the U.S. Constitution.

It also violates the rights of a president, other senators, and the American people.

Just like we did after the last Awe Topsy, let's throw the subversive jackass-stubborn McConnell out of office, along with the other Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17).

And let's do it in the very next election.

The next post in this series is here.



Wednesday, January 2, 2019

The Ghost Plumes - 6

Fig. 1
Today's post includes an update of the grounding line sizes (distances) along the "coastline" of Antarctica.

This update is followed by two appendices at the end of the discussion.

In a previous post I used only the maximum and minimum estimates of R. Bindschadler et al. 2011 & WOD Zone widths.

Since then I have acquired one of the actual databases containing several million measurements they used to estimate grounding line locations.

Using the data I have "zeroed in on" and made a much more accurate estimate of the perimeter dimensions of the "grounding lines" of tidewater glaciers along the enormous coastline of Antarctica.
Fig. 2 Grounding Line

The database documentation (nsidc0489_UG.pdf) indicated that there were five types of termini in the expanse of grounding line lengths:

1: Ice shelf (2,205,458 locations)
2: Outlet glacier (449,985 locations)
3: Fast ice
4: Open ocean (325,846 locations)
5: Rock

By "locations" I mean latitude, longitude locations (red dots @ Fig. 2) where the grounding lines were determined by close analysis of satellite photos, laser altimetry, and other "measurements" by R. Bindschadler et al. 2011.

I removed type #5 ("Rock") and #3 ("Fast ice") from my SQL server database because it was not clear as to whether or not they are tidewater glacier terminus types which merit consideration for detecting ghost plumes.

If you compare the results in this update you will see that my original ball-park maximum and minimum grounding line estimates of maximum and minimum Area plume widths (pW) were for the most part within those min/max boundaries.

That original estimation was based only on the R. Bindschadler et al. 2011 paper's kilometer determinations ("53,610 km" and "27,521 km").

My estimates were also originally based on WOD Zone widths, which are idealized widths of "square-like" shapes (e.g. the straight-line width of Fig. 2 compared to the dotted line in Fig. 2).

The idealized zone widths were way too short.

Today's estimates are based on Bindshadler's actual "measurements" of the zigs and zags.

That significantly increases the length estimates of the grounding lines and allows me to replace the shorter zone width values.

Beyond that, Appendix Two gives an unmistakable picture of the difficulty presented by so many thousands and thousands of zigs and zags in Antarctica's measured environment.

As an example, "Zone: 3603, Count: 54048" means that in WOD Zone 3603 there were 54,048 measurements, each representing a different latitude and longitude location along the grounding line hidden under the ice shelf.

The exercise required to determine the full length accurately is to sum the distances between each one of those locations.

I wrote a software module to traverse the almost 3 million latitude zigs and longitude zags so as to determine distance between zigs and zags, then total them up by both Zone and Area (Fig. 1, Fig. 2, Appendix One, Appendix Two).

In the next post I hope to bring it all home by clarifying and finalizing the plume height (pH) uncertainties.

Which means that a reasonable certainty as to the plume flow volume is emerging.

Values are being recalculated ...

The previous post in this series is here.

APPENDICES


APPENDIX ONE

These values are based on an ASAID data file: ASAID_continent_GL.txt

West Indian Ocean (Area A)

Zone 3603 GL size: 948.062 km (948062 m)
Zone 3604 GL size: 1070.35 km (1.07035e+06 m)
Zone 3605 GL size: 1235.95 km (1.23595e+06 m)
Zone 3606 GL size: 1090.32 km (1.09032e+06 m)
Zone 3700 GL size: 714.801 km (714801 m)
Zone 3701 GL size: 858.463 km (858463 m)
Zone 3702 GL size: 809.244 km (809244 m)
Area GL size: 6727.19 km (6.72719e+06 m)

East Indian Ocean (Area B)

Zone 3607 GL size: 930.701 km (930701 m)
Zone 3608 GL size: 650.146 km (650146 m)
Zone 3609 GL size: 771.646 km (771646 m)
Zone 3610 GL size: 761.075 km (761075 m)
Zone 3611 GL size: 1325.74 km (1.32574e+06 m)
Zone 3612 GL size: 846.227 km (846227 m)
Zone 3613 GL size: 707.331 km (707331 m)
Zone 3614 GL size: 969.389 km (969389 m)
Zone 3615 GL size: 922.96 km (922960 m)
Area GL size: 7885.22 km (7.88522e+06 m)

Ross Sea (Area C)

Zone 3616 GL size: 61.0403 km (61040.3 m)
Zone 3716 GL size: 4323.96 km (4.32396e+06 m)
Zone 3717 GL size: 237.006 km (237006 m)
Zone 3816 GL size: 1050.52 km (1.05052e+06 m)
Zone 3817 GL size: 257.695 km (257695 m)
Zone 5715 GL size: 1119.34 km (1.11934e+06 m)
Zone 5815 GL size: 1211.78 km (1.21178e+06 m)
Zone 5816 GL size: 896.48 km (896480 m)
Zone 5817 GL size: 493.901 km (493901 m)
Area GL size: 9651.72 km (9.65172e+06 m)

Amundsen Sea (Area D)

Zone 5711 GL size: 1163.71 km (1.16371e+06 m)
Zone 5712 GL size: 411.15 km (411150 m)
Zone 5713 GL size: 483.06 km (483060 m)
Zone 5714 GL size: 1761.14 km (1.76114e+06 m)
Area GL size: 3819.06 km (3.81906e+06 m)

Bellingshausen Sea (Area E)

Zone 5606 GL size: 5020.76 km (5.02076e+06 m)
Zone 5706 GL size: 3223.57 km (3.22357e+06 m)
Zone 5707 GL size: 2369.98 km (2.36998e+06 m)
Zone 5708 GL size: 1966.7 km (1.9667e+06 m)
Zone 5709 GL size: 889.963 km (889963 m)
Zone 5710 GL size: 1349.62 km (1.34962e+06 m)
Area GL size: 14820.6 km (1.48206e+07 m)

Weddell Sea (Area F)

Zone 5605 GL size: 789.264 km (789264 m)
Zone 5700 GL size: 1012.35 km (1.01235e+06 m)
Zone 5701 GL size: 1325.77 km (1.32577e+06 m)
Zone 5702 GL size: 833.24 km (833240 m)
Zone 5703 GL size: 573.334 km (573334 m)
Zone 5705 GL size: 17.6405 km (17640.5 m)
Area GL size: 4551.59 km (4.55159e+06 m)

Antarctica GL size: 47455.4 km (4.74554e+07 m)

APPENDIX TWO


These counts are based on an ASAID data file: ASAID_continent_GL.txt

West Indian Ocean (Area A)

Zone: 3603, Count: 54048
Zone: 3604, Count: 45435
Zone: 3605, Count: 52868
Zone: 3606, Count: 58241
Zone: 3700, Count: 45960
Zone: 3701, Count: 56265
Zone: 3702, Count: 54168
Area Total: 366985

East Indian Ocean (Area B)

Zone: 3607, Count: 41330
Zone: 3608, Count: 42374
Zone: 3609, Count: 43632
Zone: 3610, Count: 37569
Zone: 3611, Count: 81735
Zone: 3612, Count: 44976
Zone: 3613, Count: 35542
Zone: 3614, Count: 59721
Zone: 3615, Count: 51563
Area Total: 438442

Ross Sea (Area C)

Zone: 3616, Count: 3114
Zone: 3716, Count: 219632
Zone: 3717, Count: 7717
Zone: 3816, Count: 64885
Zone: 3817, Count: 16742
Zone: 5715, Count: 70595
Zone: 5815, Count: 63526
Zone: 5816, Count: 52926
Zone: 5817, Count: 23347
Area Total: 522484

Amundsen Sea (Area D)

Zone: 5711, Count: 77171
Zone: 5712, Count: 27293
Zone: 5713, Count: 24512
Zone: 5714, Count: 98824
Area Total: 227800

Bellingshausen Sea (Area E)

Zone: 5606, Count: 328319
Zone: 5706, Count: 190394
Zone: 5707, Count: 124535
Zone: 5708, Count: 85887
Zone: 5709, Count: 48884
Zone: 5710, Count: 80288
Area Total: 858307

Weddell Sea (Area F)

Zone: 5605, Count: 45707
Zone: 5700, Count: 66272
Zone: 5701, Count: 85195
Zone: 5702, Count: 24246
Zone: 5703, Count: 33000
Zone: 5705, Count: 1122
Area Total: 255542

END OF APPENDICES

Sunday, December 30, 2018

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 17

"Has anyone seen my yellow rubber ducky?"
I. Ayn

Ah, the red-tinged realm of the rubber ducky comes to an end.

The Ayn Gang returned to The Hill from its recent long search for The Lost Stones of Gonad.

That search came on the 'heals' of their ritual bath following their shenanigans in the Feast of Ayn (which they had confused with a midterm election) (Ayn Rand: Patron Saint of The Plutocracy, 2, 3, 4).

Because the Feast of Ayn (Ayn is Russian) is another Russian thingy (which among other thingys seeks to eradicate the common good), they sought to sing away their confusion using the lyrics to "Alt-Lang-Sigh-On".

The Leader of Ayn's Gang gaveled them in for the last time, while asking "Has anyone seen my rubber ducky?"

II. The Cathartic Feast of "Veto Overrides Past"

At the other end of confusion avenue, the Senate engineered a cathartic dynamic just as The Cathartic Feast festivities were getting under way.

Yes, the Senate did a very rare thingy, especially in these days daze.

In as much as The Cathartic Feast follows the Feast of Ayn and the rubber ducky bath, they tried not to jump the shark:
"The Senate unanimously approved the legislation Wednesday night to keep the government funded through Feb. 8."
(CNBC). "Those who stayed" (TWS) did not take the bath nor join the search for The Lost Stones of Gonad.

So ... they did a mind meld instead, which resulted in a unanimous thingy (a thingy required by the Tenets of Catharsis).

"Not to worry," TWS reminded the newbies, because The Cathartic Feast gives rise to one of the spiritual joys of Congress.

"Have we forgotten the congressional veto override?" TWS asked.

The tenets of the Cathartic Feast require a unanimous Senate vote (at the beginning of the feast), which must be followed by a preznidential veto (which can only take place when there is a clueless preznit in the Whut? House).

Preznit Yellow One The Last has promised a veto, so let the Cathartic Feast begin!

III. Nancy The Last

When Boy "Ayn" Ryan hands the now-tear-stained gavel to Nancy The Last, she will fulfill her vow to quickly send a clean bill of goods (BOG) over to TWS.

Because it will be as exemplary as the BOG that was unanimously voted for in the Old Senate, which Yellow One The Last vetoed, this BOG is the finger food for The Cathartic Feast (some call it the food of the BOGs).

IV. Conclusion

The Shape Shifters of Bullshitistan were not pleased with all the catharsis taking place, mainly because it promotes honesty, truth, and facts (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16).

That in itself could be a death knell to The New World Odor, so they have vowed not to change their diapers for as long as Yellow One The Last whines about his yellow Awe Topsy tweet.

According to my research, these yellow rubber ducky countries block Dredd Blog: Cuba, Fiji, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, People's Republic of China, Russian Federation, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, Vietnam, Yemen, and of course Bullshitistan.

The previous post in this series is here.