Saturday, June 20, 2015

Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44

Fig. 1 CMA CGM Jules Verne
Introduction

The subtitle for today's post might be "Planes, Trains, Trucks, and TEU."

Today, I address the realm that is the sinew, muscle, and heart-blood vessel system of world civilization (What Do You Mean - World Civilization?, Confusing "Civilization" With "Species") and the blood flowing in the veins of that civilization (Petroleum Civilization: The Final Chapter (Confusing Life with Death)).

Let's take the metaphor or analogy a bit further, and call the blood cells which carry resources throughout the body, "TEU" (Twenty-foot equivalent unit, TEU).

The Heart-Blood System of Civilization

All analogies or metaphors "break down" at some point, meaning they don't give
Fig. 2 The heart system of civilization
a perfect picture of what they are intended to represent in the real world.

What I am trying to describe is international intercourse, merchant ships on steroids, which is to say that 95% of material travels from a port in one country to a port in another country, which is the bulk of international trade, and the lifeblood of civilization (The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First; Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion; Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4; Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States).

Fig. 3 This will not do the job
In Fig. 1 the largest container ship is pictured, the link at Fig. 2 goes to a page that has descriptions of the 100 largest of such vessels.

Note that the cargo capacity of that container ship is 19,224 TEU up to 193,000 gross tons (386,000,000 lbs.).

By comparison, the largest cargo aircraft, the Lockheed C-5 Galaxy, has a payload of 270,000 lbs. (see Fig. 3).

Which means it would take (386,000,000 lbs. ÷ 270,000 lbs = 1430) 1,430 C-5 Galaxy aircraft to match the load of one cargo ship.

There aren't that many C-5 aircraft, and there are hundreds of cargo ships.

You get the picture.

The Gist of It

When the ongoing invasion by the sea shuts down cargo ports, air cargo traffic cannot be a replacement means of delivering cargo.

The nations will have to begin to trade locally, and in reduced quantities as societies collapse from what they are today, into something quite different.

Other links of interest:

Sustainable Ports (PDF)
AAPA Importance of Trade
Sea Level Rise for 20 Global Port Cities
Port Builder

A look at the issue from a decade ago:
For present-day conditions (2005), the top ten cities in terms of exposed population are estimated to be Mumbai, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Miami, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata, Greater New York, Osaka-Kobe, Alexandria and New Orleans; almost equally split between developed and developing countries. When assets are considered, the current distribution becomes more heavily weighted towards developed countries, as the wealth of the cities becomes important. The top 10 cities in terms of assets exposed are Miami, Greater New York, New Orleans, Osaka-Kobe, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Nagoya, Tampa-St Petersburg and Virginia Beach. These cities contain 60% of the total exposure, but are from only three (wealthy) countries: USA, Japan and the Netherlands. The total value of assets exposed in 2005 is across all cities considered here is estimated to be US$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global GDP in 2005 (both measured in international USD).

By the 2070s, total population exposed could grow more than threefold to around 150 million people due to the combined effects of climate change (sea-level rise and increased storminess), subsidence, population growth and urbanisation. The asset exposure could grow even more dramatically, reaching US $35,000 billion by the 2070s; more than ten times current levels and rising to roughly 9% of projected global GDP in this period. On a global-scale, for both types of exposure, population growth, socio-economic growth and urbanization are the most important drivers of the overall increase in exposure. Climate change and subsidence significantly exacerbate this effect although the relative importance of these factors varies by location. Exposure rises most rapidly in developing countries, as development moves increasingly into areas of high and rising flood risk.
(Ranking Port Cities, emphasis added, PDF). For a 2013 view of the issue based in part on surveys given to port authority officials:
"81% of sea port managers" report that "impacts of climate change is
Fig. 4 (click to enlarge)
something that needs to be addressed by the port community
"


"31% of sea port managers" report that "I feel sufficiently informed about how climate change will impact my port operations"


"58% of ports feel they would have a problem" @ "1-2 meters" (of sea level rise)


"39% of ports feel they would have a problem" @ ".5-1 meter" (of sea level rise)


"12% of sea port managers feel they would have a problem" @ "0-.5 meters" (of sea level rise)

(Port Perceptions of Sea Level Rise – An Overview, PDF). The information has been available for decades yet very few officials use the sea level rise data in their design criteria.

Got disconnect ?

Unloading at sea level ...





Thursday, June 18, 2015

Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States - 2

Kingdom of Ice joins the Kingdom of Water
I. Preface

One of the better things that can happen to an invasion force is to not be detected as they marshal their forces for the invasion.

No one in the U.S. government expects an invasion from the Kingdom of Water, even as that kingdom marshals its forces into several different battle groups that have surrounded the target of their invasion.

II. Defense Forces Are Looking Elsewhere

It is a problem when a professional military does not know about the entity involved in an invasion because it thinks another entity is the suspect.

The U.S. is deluded in this respect, and seems utterly incapable of grasping the danger it faces.

They are spying on their own citizens like no other nation on Earth:
* Some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States.

* An estimated 854,000 people, nearly 1.5 times as many people as live in Washington, D.C., hold top-secret security clearances.

* In Washington and the surrounding area, 33 building complexes for top-secret intelligence work are under construction or have been built since September 2001. Together they occupy the equivalent of almost three Pentagons or 22 U.S. Capitol buildings - about 17 million square feet of space.

* Many security and intelligence agencies do the same work, creating redundancy and waste. For example, 51 federal organizations and military commands, operating in 15 U.S. cities, track the flow of money to and from terrorist networks.

* Analysts who make sense of documents and conversations obtained by foreign and domestic spying share their judgment by publishing 50,000 intelligence reports each year - a volume so large that many are routinely ignored.
(The Homeland: Big Brother Plutonomy). With all of that spying they never lay eyes on the forces that are at every foot of the land where the invasion will take place.

To top it off, the military is off into other wars in other nations (MOMCOM: A Mean Welfare Queen).

Meanwhile, the invasion forces continue to incessantly march into the homeland (Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion).

III. The Government Thinks It Is A Trick

Scientists have been intimidated by government threats of cutting off research money if they mention the invasion forces as being a great danger or even a threat now (The Epistemology of Goldilocks RE: Sea Level Rise, An empirical examination of echo chambers in US climate policy networks, Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise).

Fearing for their livelihood, the scientific community in general has complied (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 12).

IV. The Invasion Is By Sea

The invading forces will target the one place they can cripple the supply chains and thereby cripple the defense forces:
"By volume, more than 95 percent of U.S. international trade moves through the nation's ports and harbors, with about 50 percent of these goods being hazardous materials." [quoting NOAA 'Ports']
(Will This Float Your Boat - 8, 10). Once the ports are stopped from delivering and receiving supplies, it is only a matter of time.

Other organs of infrastructure near the points of invasion, which supply power to the defense forces, will also be neutralized (FERC Plan To Limit Overpopulation?).

The invading forces are using a strategy based on the conclusion by the military of the invader that an attack by sea would have the most impact (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4).

V. The Main Invasion Force Will Be A Surge

The Kingdom of Ice and the Kingdom of Water are hiding their main invasion force from the eyes of the U.S. military defense network by building up forces out of sight until there is enough for a surge (The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise).

It is the classic Trojan Horse offense, because the military spy satellites orbiting overhead do not see the joining of forces because it is taking place as an "underground" operation.

VI. Pope Appeals For Peace

The Pope calls the invading forces elements from "our sister," a bit more decent than Oil-Qaeda which calls the Earth "our bitch" :
1. “LAUDATO SI’, mi’ Signore” – “Praise be to you, my Lord”. In the words of this beautiful canticle, Saint Francis of Assisi reminds us that our common home is like a sister with whom we share our life and a beautiful mother who opens her arms to embrace us. “Praise be to you, my Lord, through our Sister, Mother Earth, who sustains and governs us, and who produces various fruit with coloured flowers and herbs”.

2. This sister now cries out to us because of the harm we have inflicted on her by our irresponsible use and abuse of the goods with which God has endowed her. We have come to see ourselves as her lords and masters, entitled to plunder her at will. The violence present in our hearts, wounded by sin, is also reflected in the symptoms of sickness evident in the soil, in the water, in the air and in all forms of life. This is why the earth herself, burdened and laid waste, is among the most abandoned and maltreated of our poor; she “groans in travail” (Rom 8:22). We have forgotten that we ourselves are dust of the earth (cf. Gen 2:7); our very bodies are made up of her elements, we breathe her air and we receive life and refreshment from her waters.

Nothing in this world is indifferent to us

3. More than fifty years ago, with the world teetering on the brink of nuclear crisis, Pope Saint John XXIII wrote an Encyclical which not only rejected war but offered a proposal for peace. He addressed his message Pacem in Terris to the entire “Catholic world” and indeed “to all men and women of good will”. Now, faced as we are with global environmental deterioration, I wish to address every person living on this planet. In my Apostolic Exhortation Evangelii Gaudium, I wrote to all the members of the Church with the aim of encouraging ongoing missionary renewal. In this Encyclical, I would like to enter into dialogue with all people about our common home.
(Papal Encyclical, cf. Guardian View). There can be no doubt that science and religion can at least realize where we are (You Are Here).

VII. Conclusion

The forces of the Earth, whatever you want to call them, can not be bought off like the politicians who have supervised the ongoing mass murder-suicide at the behest of Oil-Qaeda (The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First).

The invasion will proceed until Oil-Qaeda is conquered, because even though millions of individuals in thousand of species have been pleading for their lives by now, year in and year out, their death cries were not heard (On The Memorial Daze).

Neither will the Oil-Qaeda nation's cries be heard, because what Oil-Qaeda has unleashed (the wrath of the Earth) answers to no murdering engine seeking to destroy everything including itself (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

The coastline has moved 200 ft. in this guys memory ...



Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Is BS The Only Thing Not Subject To The Law of Entropy ?

The entropy species
Introduction

In November, 1956, Isaac Asimov published a short story entitled: "The Last Question" (HTML) (PDF).

On June 16, 1965 Bob Dylan recorded "Like A Rolling Stone" (video below) which was released in the album "Highway 61 Revisited," an album which also contained the song "Highway 61."

In 1934-1961 Arnold J. Toynbee wrote "A Study of History," which chronicled the dynamics of 19 "major" human civilizations through their "birth" and "death."

In January of 1845 Edgar Allan Poe published "The Raven," a narrative poem that touches upon the "birth" and "death" of the mysterious energy of romance, and some of its consequences.

All of those works, in one way or another, are concerned with the notion of entropy.

Entropy is a subject of physics as well as being a subject concerning the scope of the existence of human civilization, and even the scope of the existence of the current configuration of the universe itself.

In this post, today, I want to discuss some of the similarities in the concept of entropy, as they apply to our personal vision of ourselves. as well as some ways they apply to human civilization's vision of itself.

Since the title of today's post contains the word "BS," I will not neglect to include some of those notions along the way, so as to make an attempt to answer the question formed by the title.

It is About Dynamics of Energy

The concept of the laws of thermodynamics goes back in time to a point before the advent of quantum mechanics, so that "law" has had to have epigenetic evolutionary change over that span of time.

Nevertheless, some "old timey" science still adheres to some of it (If Cosmology Is "Off," How Can Biology Be "On?").

One way of looking at the concept of entropy is the "birth" and "death" of "useful energy" (compare Big Bang with Heat Death of the Universe).

Everything in between is a matter of the dynamics of entropy (in fact, the Big Bang itself could have been an entropic event).

Entropy of Energy

Oil Is Not Energy

BS is rife and epidemic in U.S. culture to the point that we have a right to BS as a matter of law (It Takes A Culture To Raise A Compulsive Liar).

That includes Oil-Qaeda sponsored lies about no entropy, i.e. never running out of poison crude oil, even on our finite planet with finite resources (The Peak of The Oil Lies - 6).

Nevertheless, Oil-Qaeda will get to "Nevermore" one way or another.

Energy is Not Endless-Energy

Which leads to the notion of renewable, clean, and yes, endless energy (no entropy).

One of the laws of thermodynamics has to do with a perpetual motion machine, which is a myth and an illegality.

But with BS, perpetuity itself is also very difficult to grasp as a myth.

Unless one grasps that a perpetual motion machine is a mythical machine that creates new, previously non-existent energy in order to re-power itself.

Some scientists took a look at entropy and saw easily that poison crude oil was limited, i.e. while there is enough of it to kill us all, there is not enough to keep us going forever.

So they naturally looked elsewhere for perpetuity.

One of those scientists was  Freeman Dyson, who came up with a hypothesis that advanced civilizations would develop what is now called a "Dyson Grid" or a "Dyson Sphere"  (Mystery Bubble - Signal, Grid, or What?, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 40).

Such a grid or sphere is a system which is designed to harness the energy of the sun / star at the center of a solar system.

This is what "The Last Question" (by Asimov) details, in the sense that they tapped the solar energy of their sun.

To do so they used vast computer controlled systems placed in space:
For decades, Multivac had helped design the ships and plot the trajectories that enabled man to reach the Moon, Mars, and Venus, but past that, Earth's poor resources could not support the ships. Too much energy was needed for the long trips. Earth exploited its coal and uranium with increasing efficiency, but there was only so much of both.

But slowly Multivac learned enough to answer deeper questions more fundamentally, and on May 14, 2061, what had been theory, became fact.

The energy of the sun was stored, converted, and utilized directly on a planet-wide scale. All Earth turned off its burning coal, its fissioning uranium, and flipped the switch that connected all of it to a small station, one mile in diameter, circling the Earth at half the distance of the Moon. All Earth ran by invisible beams of sunpower.
(ibid, link in first sentence of this post). I won't spoil it for you, so read it all, because it is quite interesting.

Entropy of Civilizations

This brings up the work of a once-very-popular historian, as I mentioned in the Introduction, who made this observation:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."
(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). This is the type of entropy that is not a matter of pure physics.

It is, rather, something within the province of the realm known as social decay (A Decline Of The American Republic).

A type of decay which Freud attributed to group dynamics, and a psychology that was in need of still non-existent therapy (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch).

Entropy of The Cosmos

There was once an accepted theory called the oscillating universe theory which is no longer favored, however, a hybrid version has now been advanced with a similar result in mind.

The scientists who have advanced it describe hypotheses which ostensibly argue that the universe is perpetual (Autopoiesis: It's Not Just For Machines Anymore).

However, the predominant theory now is still:
The heat death of the universe is a historically suggested ultimate fate of the universe in which the universe has diminished to a state of no thermodynamic free energy and therefore can no longer sustain processes that consume energy (including computation and life). Heat death does not imply any particular absolute temperature; it only requires that temperature differences or other processes may no longer be exploited to perform work. In the language of physics, this is when the universe reaches thermodynamic equilibrium (maximum entropy).
(Heat Death of the Universe, links & formatting removed). This is an old back and forth debate in science.

Entropy of BS

A new paradigm in science is that the universe is mostly composed of abiotic matter, which takes the form of molecular machines (The New Paradigm: The Physical Universe Is Mostly Machine).

Therefore, it is subject to the laws of thermodynamics.

Nevertheless, some of us seem to be heading toward the Supreme BS Court in order to get the Cosmic Justices there to overturn the laws of thermodynamics.

The strategy is to thereby make everything immortal (like Oil-Qaeda did with oil through BS).

BTW, that is where everything ended up in the answer to "The Last Question" in Asimov's fiction (the same temperature).

As to Bob Dylan and Edgar Allan Poe, my take on their work, alluded to in the Introduction, is that "nevermore" and "like a rolling stone" are just artful ways of describing "entropy" (down hill until rolling nevermore).

As for BS, its users will have to pass The Test too.

50 Yr, Anniversary of "Like A Rolling Stone"

Like A Rolling Stone, by Bob Dylan, lyrics here.



Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Global Warming / Climate Change Will Generate Dangerous Religion - 2

The main stream media's ISIS loves oil as much as the main stream media's Oil-Qaeda does.

Now, Pope Francis is on a crusade to counter that flirtation with the middle east oil and its control (A History of Oil Addiction - 4, 3, 2, 1).

A cultural  trance addiction started by the religious belief of a high-powered military figure in the British Empire (The Universal Smedley - 2, Viva Egypt - 2).

Which has now come down to a suicide watch over the Petroleum Civilization created in the wake of that religious belief (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

Thus, we have a religious struggle of ideas about the nature of the Earth (in the context of a global civilization) concerning being addicted to the burning of fossil fuels.

In the U.S.eh? the dynamic of Exceptional American Denial has taken on an evangelical air in the three ring circus of right-wing politics.

In that arena both the High Priest of Denial and Bishop X want the Pope to stifle it.

So, basically this religious element, of the phenomenon of ideological conflict concerning global warming induced climate change, boils down to "Is God causing it or is human civilization causing it?"

In the realm of scientists, there is a massively one-sided consensus that God is not causing it, humans are.

I would expect Pope Francis to be more persuasive than his theocratic opponents in the U.S. government, and more persuasive than the wannabe theocrats hoping to be elected into U.S. government office.

The official document is slated to be released Thursday, but a draft of the encyclical was leaked.

It purportedly says:
"Humanity is called to take note of the need for changes in lifestyle and changes in methods of production and consumption to combat this warming, or at least the human causes that produce and accentuate it," he wrote in the draft. "Numerous scientific studies indicate that the greater part of the global warming in recent decades is due to the great concentration of greenhouse gases…given off above all because of human activity."

The pope will also single out those obstructing solutions. In an apparent reference to climate-change deniers, the draft states: "The attitudes that stand in the way of a solution, even among believers, range from negation of the problem, to indifference, to convenient resignation or blind faith in technical solutions."
(Mother Jones). Pope Francis goes on the offensive against deniers in his church and those not in his church.

The Pope is not a feudal vassal like the European Church was during feudal times there, but the American Catholics who are opposing him seem to be vassals or serfs:
The Church, too, had her place in the feudal system. She too was granted territorial fiefs, became a vassal, possessed immunities. It was the result of her calm, wide sympathy, turning to the new nations, away from the Roman Empire, to which many Christians thought she was irrevocably bound. By the baptism of Clovis she showed the baptism of Constantine had not tied her to the political system. So she created a new world out of chaos, created the paradox of barbarian civilization. In gratitude kings and emperors endowed her with property; and ecclesiastical property has not infrequently brought evils in its train. The result was disputed elections; younger sons of nobles were intruded into bishoprics, at times even into the papacy. Secular princes claimed lay investiture of spiritual offices. The cause of this was feudalism, for a system that had its basis on land tenure was bound at last to enslave a Church that possessed great landed possessions.
(American Feudalism - 2). Next comes the decision phase of individuals faced with choosing between the American Oil Religion of Oil-Qaeda (Oilah Akbar! Oilah Akbar!) and the Pope's version (Catholicism).

That decision making will probably follow the way such things are traditionally decided (The Pillars of Knowledge: Faith and Trust?).

The previous post in this series is here.

The heaven matrix is confusing ...



Monday, June 15, 2015

The Evolution of Models - 11

Fig. 1 (click to enlarge)
I. Background

In this series I have been describing some of the processes involved in the development of software which attempts to project future sea level rise (SLR).

So far a 3yr, 5yr, 7yr, and 10yr doubling dataset has been discussed (The Evolution of Models - 10).

The 2yr doubling dataset was discussed in another series (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR - 5?).

The resulting 5yr, 7yr, and 10yr doubling datasets match Hansen's calculations for a 1m SLR exactly to the year:
The increasing Greenland mass loss ... can be fit just as well by exponentially increasing annual mass loss, a behavior that Hansen (2005, 2007) argues could occur because of multiple amplifying feedbacks as an ice sheet begins to disintegrate. A 10-year doubling time would lead to 1 meter sea level rise by 2067 ... 2045 ... for 5-year doubling time and 2055 ... for a 7-year doubling time.
(Update of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss: Exponential?). Since Hansen did not offer either a 3yr or 2yr doubling concept, I added those two.

Then, I generated graphs (all five graphs are shown in the following two posts: The Evolution of Models - 10 and The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR - 5?.

I did those individual graphs using the same doubling-ratio logic that Jim Hansen and Makiko Sato had used for their 5,7, and 10yr doubling (a.k.a. acceleration) projections.

Note that Hansen's use of the descriptive words "doubling" and "exponential" is just another way of describing "acceleration."

II. Why I Took A Different Design Approach

A recent paper in the journal Cryosphere pointed out the complex system problems that
Fig. 2 (@ page 181)
can evolve when developing software models that project future events:
In spite of significant improvements in the simulated GrIS topography with our discharge parameterization, for all of our simulations it was impossible to yield an error in ice thickness smaller than about 18 %.
(The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, 2015, at 191, PDF). That is talking about matching the historical records concerning the ice thickness (not the future thickness).

That approach (illustrated to a degree in Fig. 2) could be what plagued them with the 18% inaccuracy.

It tells me that they took a minutiae design approach instead of a higher level "zone approach."

Using that degree of minutia on a vast ice sheet would require that a software development team calculate many dynamics for each square, each unit.

How much water will be produced by melt in each square, how much ice remains in each square, what happens if some of the square calves, what if the ice in square 9,834,492 moves to the another square, etc. etc.

Those complexities generally tend to cause a wrestling match between the solution domain and the problem domain.

That is most often due to the software complexities growing enough to compound the real-world problem complexities.

Such a wrestling match often increases periodically until it reaches the point of taking the main focus away from the physical reality, the problem domain (future SLR), which the development team is trying to focus on.

As they encounter technical software development issues, unless they are careful, the solution domain may morph to join the problem domain.

III. Basic Design Approach

A. Core Data

Knowing that about software projects, from years of experience in software architecture, I took a very basic approach, so as to avoid the runaway increase of complexity.

I did so in order to maximize the development of the core dynamics of a solution, as well as to minimize technical software complexities.

The graphic at the top of this post (Fig. 1) has the fundamental data needed in order to build core logic for an SLR projection program.

I concluded that a clean design required focusing first on the potential amount of SLR at the two key locations, Antarctica (212.58' + 26.44' + 1.51' = 240.53 ft. of SLR potential) and Greenland (21.49 ft. of SLR potential).

Avoiding "majoring in the minors" also meant spending less focus on the minor non-Polar ice which has only 1.48 ft. of SLR potential anyway.

B. Zones

Having done that, I then sectioned off the three locations into 4 "melt zones" (coastal, inland 1, inland 2, and no-melt).

Those zones are based on degrees of being most likely to melt/calve or less likely to melt/calve, in a given year (e.g. what percent of the zone will make its way to the sea in a given year).

The coastal is most likely to make it to the sea first, proceeding through less likely inland zones, then finally to the deep interior (which is not likely to melt much for perhaps a century or more).

This technique skips all ice-to-water calculations, how much ice will melt and how much will calve instead, etc. etc. (to instead deal only with SLR directly).

The simple meaning and exercise then becomes what percentage of a zone becomes SLR rather than how it becomes SLR (e.g. melt, calving, evaporation).

It allows a focus on temperature acceleration (atmosphere & ocean temperature) as the means for developing a premise for SLR acceleration (NOAA" No Warming Slowdown, cf. NOAA Study Confirms Global Warming Speed-Up Is Imminent).

C. Percentage of SLR Per Annum

The logic that was then coded became all about what percentage of each zone's potential SLR is going to materialize into actual SLR in a given year.

The final computation is simple arithmetic: all the zone data in each geographical location is added together to derive a total SLR quantity for that year.

Then a graph is generated from the numbers derived (e.g. The Evolution of Models - 10).

IV. A Grasp of Acceleration Is The Key For Realistic Projection

No matter which design technique is used, minutiae or direct SLR, one has to develop a useful and realistic acceleration rate (or several as Hansen did).

Heretofore, models have tended to use linear (same rate of SLR forever) calculations when projecting SLR out into the future.

IOW, BAU is used in SLR models even though that is not the case for the modelling of CO2, temperature, and other climate change impacts (a concept of acceleration of the rate of increase is customary for those models).

V. Conclusion

Unfortunately, until the models take a clean approach to SLR projection, using acceleration as the core driving logic, we can expect underestimates of SLR.

That is because real-world SLR is not based on linear dynamics, it is based on acceleration dynamics.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

The Yale Forum ...