Proof of Concept - 7

Fig. 1 Satellite Record

Yesterday I criticized a paper published in a scientific journal (Questionable Scientific Papers - 6).

In that post I provided a graph I had made which came from a NASA database which anyone can download (NASA Satellite Data).

Fig. 2 Columns 6, 8, 9, 11, 12

Fig. 3  Columns 6, 8

Today I am adding some additional graphs made from various columns in that data, with the intent to bolster my criticism of the paper.

BTW, I updated yesterday's post by adding a paper from Science (12 Feb 2016: Vol. 351, Issue 6274).

Fig. 4  Columns 9, 11

Fig. 5 Column 12

That paper details a good many of the dynamics causing a lack of scientific understanding in the U.S.A, much of it because of what is taught by an inordinate number of middle and high school teachers.

So, let's get on with today's closer look at that "the rain did it" paper.

The graph at Fig. 1 is the graph that was also presented in yesterday's post.

In that graph, a circle was placed around the area of the sea level fall I will expand upon today.

The other graphs in today's post zoom in on that area, much like a microscope takes a closer look at specimens on a slide.

As you read this post, you might want to remember Dr. Mitrovica's statement made in his recent video.

He said that global mean average sea level usage has led us astray for the past hundred years (The Ghost-Water Constant - 4).

As a quick example, Fig. 1 shows what is claimed to be a radical aberration in the incessant sea level rise trend shown since 1993 in global mean average trend lines.

But notice that Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 pull the covers off of that choreograph song and dance, showing the raw data as well as the effect of the "smoothing" of that data.

The raw data lines in those graphs, made from the same database of the same events, by the same satellites at the same time, show what, in contrast to the smoothing, looks to the untrained eye like radical gyrations.

For instance, at the very beginning of the year 2010, there is a sharp drop in sea level, followed by a sharp rise in sea level, followed by another sharp drop.

The paper, mimicking global mean average smoothing type cover ups, begins the scenario with "But for an 18-month period that began in the middle of 2010, " skipping the rises and falls earlier in the same year.

Classic cherry picking eh?

The article then describes the following rise and fall events as "something surprising ... one-and-a-half-year, 7-mm fall", even though the earlier rise and fall scenario in that same year involves as much as 10mm of sea level change.

There are rises and falls all the time during the "18 month" period (compare column 6 to column 8, Fig. 3, and column 9 to column 11, Fig. 4).

In fact, it looks like typical pattern shown in tide gauge records that have been kept for hundreds of years.

Those records contain sea level changes of hundreds of millimeters (Questionable "Scientific" Papers).

The paper fails to explain why a "7 mm" sea level fall is "something surprising" when in fact it is "something common" and "something to be expected."

Here is the comma delimited data used in Fig. 2 - Fig. 5  which was graciously provided by NASA:

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0,637,2010.0095215,479471,346149.59,39.11,96.59,39.50,44.05,98.11,44.43,44.67
0,638,2010.0367432,474607,342780.91,38.23,95.24,38.39,43.19,96.45,43.33,44.14
0,639,2010.0638428,477018,344898.41,36.25,92.88,37.65,41.19,94.03,42.61,43.86
0,640,2010.0910645,476048,344261.31,33.27,92.08,37.48,38.21,93.05,42.44,43.99
0,641,2010.1181641,475819,343689.59,37.39,95.46,37.76,42.37,96.46,42.74,44.48
0,642,2010.1453857,477464,345265.69,41.08,97.41,38.10,46.08,98.51,43.09,44.95
0,643,2010.1724854,474860,342908.19,42.55,99.28,38.07,47.58,100.42,43.08,45.01
0,644,2010.1997070,472967,342223.00,35.39,94.42,37.61,40.40,95.25,42.64,44.65
0,645,2010.2268066,474134,343208.91,35.68,93.84,37.01,40.72,94.75,42.05,44.16
0,646,2010.2540283,474656,343652.59,35.30,95.38,36.55,40.37,96.25,41.61,43.88
0,647,2010.2811279,475849,344245.81,37.05,94.25,36.36,42.12,95.11,41.42,43.90
0,648,2010.3083496,474384,342906.91,36.80,93.40,36.38,41.85,94.16,41.45,44.19
0,649,2010.3355713,475226,343713.50,35.35,93.73,36.56,40.43,94.52,41.64,44.67
0,650,2010.3626709,473414,342503.81,35.57,94.33,36.89,40.66,95.42,41.96,45.26
0,651,2010.3898926,474028,344248.09,38.86,94.67,37.30,43.95,95.81,42.38,45.89
0,652,2010.4169922,472607,344266.31,37.77,93.38,37.69,42.84,94.62,42.77,46.38
0,653,2010.4442139,474038,344753.91,37.98,95.95,37.96,43.02,97.48,43.03,46.59
0,654,2010.4713135,473040,344862.41,38.83,95.50,38.08,43.92,96.98,43.15,46.47
0,655,2010.4985352,465837,341841.91,38.44,94.81,38.09,43.51,96.33,43.16,46.03
0,656,2010.5256348,465527,342308.41,36.84,93.52,38.07,41.89,95.22,43.13,45.35
0,657,2010.5528564,466639,344320.69,38.58,93.50,38.05,43.63,95.23,43.12,44.50
0,658,2010.5799561,456255,337389.19,38.59,93.59,38.08,43.65,95.35,43.15,43.55
0,659,2010.6071777,456573,339884.91,36.92,95.87,38.19,41.99,97.99,43.26,42.59
0,660,2010.6343994,457465,340074.59,39.08,96.39,38.45,44.15,98.57,43.51,41.74
0,661,2010.6614990,461879,343854.81,36.90,96.74,38.87,41.98,98.91,43.95,41.13
0,662,2010.6887207,457084,340408.91,40.00,99.58,39.46,45.07,101.86,44.54,40.79
0,663,2010.7158203,455980,339547.41,40.77,101.18,40.11,45.82,103.58,45.20,40.71
0,664,2010.7430420,458483,340143.59,40.83,100.79,40.74,45.96,102.98,45.83,40.83
0,665,2010.7701416,458095,340098.19,40.09,102.84,41.24,45.16,104.88,46.34,41.10
0,666,2010.7973633,457347,339047.31,43.84,103.66,41.47,48.97,105.85,46.58,41.38
0,667,2010.8244629,459884,340366.81,42.79,103.47,41.28,47.92,105.45,46.40,41.49
0,668,2010.8516846,460914,340735.59,41.19,103.09,40.60,46.28,104.88,45.74,41.36
0,669,2010.8787842,465273,342880.69,40.86,100.49,39.56,46.02,102.43,44.71,41.03
0,670,2010.9060059,468596,344942.81,36.69,100.58,38.37,41.85,102.19,43.54,40.69
0,671,2010.9332275,471969,346052.41,36.70,100.75,37.28,41.89,102.11,42.46,40.48
0,672,2010.9603271,471186,343941.00,35.40,99.15,36.38,40.63,100.32,41.57,40.45
0,673,2010.9875488,473692,345005.00,37.09,101.58,35.61,42.25,102.69,40.81,40.49
0,674,2011.0146484,477744,346669.31,34.34,101.39,34.92,39.57,102.39,40.13,40.49
0,675,2011.0418701,476283,344795.91,33.85,102.93,34.28,39.07,103.94,39.48,40.39
0,676,2011.0689697,477872,345270.09,33.81,102.11,33.70,39.03,102.84,38.90,40.22
0,677,2011.0961914,478381,346620.41,32.80,100.36,33.20,38.00,101.01,38.41,40.01
0,678,2011.1232910,472395,342213.50,32.44,100.20,32.76,37.55,100.83,37.98,39.75
0,679,2011.1505127,475539,344162.59,32.87,100.93,32.30,38.14,101.66,37.55,39.42
0,680,2011.1776123,475199,343833.41,32.24,101.31,31.79,37.57,102.11,37.06,39.00
0,681,2011.2048340,476492,345035.50,32.28,101.32,31.25,37.56,101.92,36.54,38.56
0,682,2011.2320557,474642,343376.19,27.60,101.50,30.80,32.90,101.82,36.10,38.24
0,683,2011.2591553,472706,341543.31,30.99,101.40,30.51,36.32,101.89,35.82,38.12
0,684,2011.2863770,474082,342846.91,31.40,100.83,30.38,36.70,101.42,35.70,38.23
0,685,2011.3134766,475303,344026.50,30.30,100.58,30.42,35.63,101.18,35.75,38.55
0,686,2011.3406982,476138,344538.50,27.56,97.45,30.66,32.90,98.10,36.00,39.08
0,687,2011.3677979,476026,343971.31,32.15,96.75,31.13,37.52,97.53,36.47,39.81
0,688,2011.3950195,477413,345733.19,32.57,94.92,31.78,37.93,95.89,37.13,40.67
0,689,2011.4221191,476756,344981.69,30.68,94.68,32.53,36.04,95.76,37.88,41.49
0,690,2011.4493408,472182,344271.41,33.67,93.36,33.27,39.00,94.66,38.61,42.14
0,691,2011.4764404,475331,346719.09,36.43,93.86,33.89,41.75,95.37,39.23,42.48
0,692,2011.5036621,467652,342936.19,33.84,92.47,34.44,39.21,93.95,39.78,42.55
0,693,2011.5308838,470802,345292.00,33.64,90.76,35.13,38.96,92.26,40.47,42.55
0,694,2011.5579834,469814,345999.81,33.93,91.75,36.16,39.27,93.68,41.50,42.71
0,695,2011.5852051,463339,342138.81,36.74,93.99,37.61,42.08,95.94,42.95,43.15
0,696,2011.6123047,457768,338664.41,40.56,95.29,39.26,45.90,97.33,44.60,43.72
0,697,2011.6395264,456277,337663.81,41.77,97.95,40.80,47.12,100.19,46.15,44.17
0,698,2011.6666260,459005,339675.59,43.84,99.47,42.03,49.20,101.84,47.38,44.37
0,699,2011.6938477,461635,341742.59,43.03,101.50,43.00,48.38,103.86,48.35,44.44
0,700,2011.7209473,462023,342850.50,41.86,99.78,43.82,47.20,102.08,49.17,44.57
0,701,2011.7481689,458084,340219.91,44.61,101.45,44.54,49.99,103.66,49.90,44.84
0,702,2011.7752686,415932,307501.19,47.14,102.54,44.99,52.45,104.96,50.35,45.10
0,703,2011.8024902,462404,340286.91,48.63,104.53,44.98,54.03,107.12,50.35,45.18
0,704,2011.8297119,463084,341476.00,43.92,102.71,44.55,49.24,104.99,49.93,45.11
0,705,2011.8568115,468188,342926.91,41.51,101.97,43.98,46.93,104.15,49.38,45.12
0,706,2011.8840332,472091,345087.50,42.39,99.28,43.54,47.83,101.28,48.96,45.44
0,707,2011.9111328,473604,345165.81,45.28,100.81,43.29,50.75,102.84,48.74,46.05
0,708,2011.9383545,472902,343877.41,42.63,98.10,43.17,48.06,100.23,48.62,46.80
0,709,2011.9654541,477214,345628.81,42.77,98.41,43.11,48.26,100.30,48.57,47.60

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