Friday, October 23, 2015

The Extinction of Manzanillo

Fig. 1 CAT 5 Patricia
The busiest sea port in Mexico is Manzanillo, servicing the largest city in Mexico, a city which had a population of 8,851,080 in 2010, making it one of the largest cities in the world (Mexico City).

The "largest" hurricane ever recorded in the Pacific Ocean, Patricia, of CAT 5 intensity, is bearing down on the Manzanillo area with 200 mph winds now, but expected to increase to 205 mph winds when it makes landfall sometime today.

The eye is just north of Manzanillo (see Fig. 1, click to enlarge; follow link for NOAA information).

This "greatest" hurricane (lowest millibar reading & fastest winds ever recorded) is just another "normal catastrophe" in a damaged climate system, because the propagandists call this "the new normal."

That is because they want you to think that anything is normal (The International Language:

The two tidal gauge stations for Manzanillo (737, 1818) are no longer operational, so take a look at the Acapulco tidal gauge station (PSMSL Station 686).

That gauge station is also spotty, but it shows about a 1.33 ft. sea level rise (SLR) since it began recording sea level in 1967.

The IPCC "global mean average" SLR adds 3ft or so to that (by 2100).

Thus, even the IPCC notoriously conservative estimate shows that, at the lowest estimates, this sea port will be unusable before 2100 (~85 years).

Patricia, in some ways the most powerful hurricane in the history of Pacific or Atlantic Ocean hurricanes, will not destroy Manzanillo, but sea level change (SLC) eventually will.

That is one reason for Dredd Blog posts such as (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5).

Have a good weekend (more on the Manzanillo sea port here).

Thursday, October 22, 2015

The Extinction of Atlantic City

It will happen
Whether one uses the IPCC 5th Assessment conservative model, or the Hansen 2015 more catastrophic model, one thing is sure: east coast cities are doomed by sea level rise (SLR).

Today, I present the graphs for Atlantic City, NJ, which has kept tide gauge records since 1912.

I added a feature to the Dredd Blog SLR model to save readers from having to convert RLR meters into SLR meters by subtraction, etc., so you will see some of that today (Fig. 3, Fig. 4).

I get strange interaction with idiots from time to time, but readers and regular
Fig. 1 IPCC 5th Assessment
commenters do not see their comments because this blog is not a garbage dump like the air, oceans, and land is to current civilization, so I do not post such comments.

Such as "what you talkin' bad 'bout Amurka for boy, by sayin' our cities is gonna be
Fig. 2
hurt by liberal climmit change? Don;t you know ifin we pay off our debt and bring down the gummit there ain't gonna be no more of that thar climmit change!"

You know the story and have probably seen those troglodyte comments around "the innertubes."

Anyway, I am explaining the reality that flora and fauna are not the first things to
Fig. 3
become extinct, they will be around long after current civilization becomes extinct.

I am pointing out that the Sixth Mass Extinction, which is currently under way, part of which is sea level change (SLC), will be taking out coastal cities first well before all the flora and fauna is made extinct.

Fig. 4
Whether the IPCC or the Hansen model is used, their SLR values for "global average SLR" will actually be higher on the east coast.

Gravity, axial relocation, and rotational relocation have an impact on SLC, so the global averages do not point out sufficiently that the SLC is a threat to civilization itself, because, as Dr. Titley pointed out: "If you stop the [sea-port] shipping, you stop the economy" (The Extinction of Charleston).

The SLR is clearly going to take out the sea ports, no question, and the only valid question is when.

Both the conservative IPCC model (Government Climate Change Report - 6) and the more radical Hansen model (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion) show that current sea ports are doomed.

IMO, that happens at the most within 85 years, and at the least within 15-20 years.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

The Extinction of Miami

Fig. 1 IPCC-5th Sea Level Rise
I mentioned yesterday that I had discovered a flaw ("bug") in the future projection of the Dredd Blog sea level change (SLC) software model.

It was doing what all SLC software models do, which is to underestimate sea level rise (SLR).

When I made some modifications (to use the trend line instead of the pattern emulation algorithm), the bug slipped in between two beers.

Anyway, while fixing that, I decided to settle on only two degrees of SLR in the model, instead of five or six.

The two degrees I settled on are the IPCC 5th Assessment (Fig. 1, Fig. 2) for the low side, and the Hansen et al. 2015 (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion) for the high side (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2 IPCC projection

The difference between the two, in terms of how high should the next rain boots you buy be, is: buy hip-waders for the IPCC degree, but buy a boat for the Hansen degree.

Anyway, the extinction of venerable cities along the East Coast of the U.S.A. has been a theme recently, with lots of ("too many") graphs, so cutting it down to two well known varieties will be less tedious for all of us.

Fig. 3
And I can do something else more productive, like work up a post on "the domino theory" as one commenter recently seemed to suggest.

These two graphs (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) are composed of historical data from the Key West tide gauge station.

Stations a bit closer to Miami have closed down, or do not have sufficient valid historical data to have made it into the Dredd Blog list of PSMSL stations.

Key West is one of the golden 23 tide gauge stations, so you can be sure that they have done a good job, along with the other 489, out of 1417 total PSMSL stations, which Dredd Blog uses for SLC data.

Note that the Hansen et al. theme is that global mean average SLR could reach ten feet (~3m) by 2050, while the IPCC says that global mean average SLR for 2100 will be closer to 4ft.

That is a classic "day and night" difference.

I would lay odds that Hansen and Co. will be closer.

Atlantis Miami

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

The Extinction of Norfolk

Fig. 1 Norfolk, VA area
The Hague is a community near Norfolk, VA (What's In A Name).

The graphic at Fig. 1 was presented in the video of Retired Admiral Dr. David Titley.

It shows the number of hours The Hague has flooded over the years (the trend is obvious).

The tide gauge station that is still operative near that area is Sewells Point @ Hampton Roads, PSMSL Station #299 (Fig. 2).

The area abounds in ports, including a commercial sea port, naval port, and the like.
Fig. 2

The area is threatened with sea level rise (SLR) and IMO will become extinct in terms of being the area it once was.

Even with the very low acceleration rate shown in Fig. 2, it shows that the area is going to be inundated.

The 1m / 3ft. level of SLR, even at the slow acceleration rate, takes place about 2031, and 2m / 6ft. at about 2050.

Extinction is not just happening to the flora and fauna of the Earth, it is clearly taking place on the east coast of the U.S.A. too.

The video where Dr. Titley presented the graphic (Fig. 1) is at the bottom of the following post (The Extinction of Charleston).

I found a flaw in the software SLC model that is generating the graphs I have been using the past few posts or so.

It was not accelerating in about the first 10 years of the future projections, so, that is being fixed.

I will show the results in a few days.

Monday, October 19, 2015

The Extinction of Charleston

Fig. 1
Scientists have pointed out many times that the U.S. east coast is on the list of the top ten recipients of sea level change (SLC) in the form of sea level rise (SLR).

Some areas of the deep oceans are number one on the list, but as far as shorelines are concerned, the U.S. east coast is number one at some point in time (Peak Sea Level - 5).

Recently, Dredd Blog posts have been showing various degrees of SLR on the east
Fig. 2

This has been in the form of presenting the history of SLR at various PSMSL tide gauge stations.

Then, appending the future projections of various degrees (5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 yr. "doubling") onto the end of the SLR history (e.g. see Fig. 1 - Fig. 5).

What a concept, the "history of SLR" means that it is not a future concept, no, it has been happening for a long time.

SLC is an historical concept, a hard-science reality, not some scary thingy to be placed under the kid's bed sometime in the future.

Fig. 3
The industrial revolution started before we were born, circa 1750.

So did SLC, SLR, and sea level fall (SLF).

As the few aware scientists back them said, "this green house gas that industry is emitting will change the temperature of the planet upwards" (paraphrased).

The rub is that as goes the temperature so goes SLC, whether in the form of SLR or
Fig. 4
in the form of SLF.

Projecting future quantities of SLC is sorta like prognosticating about who will be the winner in a football game.

At least in the sense that just because one does not know what the exact score will be, one can still know which team will win, and which team will lose.

Especially in the sense of a super-bowl professional team playing a peewee league team composed of elementary children.

Fig. 5
Civilization is the peewee elementary league, and SLC is the professional super-bowl winning team that is invading civilization at an accelerating rate now (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3, 4; The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First, Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

It is late in the 4th quarter, and the peewee league is certainly going to lose.

If you think the results are uncertain, you are damaged by typical Oil-Qaeda deceit, lies, and distortions (The Criminally Insane Epoch Arises - 4).

Oil-Qaeda knows it is guilty, but like most criminally insane types, they will plead "not guilty" and try thereafter to snitch-out an innocent victim (Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment - 6, Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment - 5, Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment - 4, Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment - 3, Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment - 2, Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment).

(Retired Admiral) Dr. David Titley:

16:30 Climate change impact on water is a good way to discuss the issues.

18:50 There has always been cancer, but that does not mean smoking cigarettes does not cause cancer.

28:40 Who believes in climate change? (Everyone raises hands.) I don't believe in it, I know about it. It is not a matter of belief, it is a matter of knowledge, something we know.

40:45 If you stop the [sea-port] shipping, you stop the economy. This is kinda why it is a big deal.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

The Extinction of Boston

Fig. 1
Regular commenter Randy recently made a comment we all thought was relevant and valid.

Since current civilization's string pullers do not have much, if any, respect for the natural world, why not focus the reality of extinction on members of Petroleum Civilization (a.k.a. Industrial Civilization)?

So, in that light, I have been doing an "extinction of" series (The Extinction of Philadelphia, The Extinction of Washington, D.C., The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports).

Fig. 2
Today's graphs depict the fate of Boston, MA, in the context of 5 acceleration models.

We can't know which one is the most accurate, but all of them contain the actual recorded history of sea level change (SLC) at Boston, then that historical reality is followed by a computed projection up to the year 2100.

Fig. 3
A red dot appears at the junction of the past (up to Dec. 2014) and the future (2015 - 2099 - we don't have the complete 2015 just yet).

In either of the 5 acceleration rate cases (7, 10, 15, 20, or 25), the sea level rise (SLR) is going to make those east coast sea ports extinct in this century.

Since the SLC rates are different at different city/sea port locations, they will not
Fig. 4
become extinct at the same time (cf. Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

The problem of SLC on ports is the least understood and most problematic of those commonly discussed in the propaganda media, so, if you are interested you can read the accounts of the insurmountable problems that exist in this context on the Dredd Blog Series Posts page @ SEA LEVEL CHANGE (Sea Ports ... "its the economy sea ports stupid").

Fig. 5
The only thing that could have been done years ago was not done.

In fact, instead of doing what needed to be done, the necessary requirement was deceptively covered up with deliberate lies and distractions (The Criminally Insane Epoch Arises - 4).

Now, whether Oil-Qaeda is prosecuted or not, the extinction of Boston looms on the relatively near horizon (You Are Here - 5).

(Ex-Admiral) Dr. Titley struggles with what he sees in reality, or with what too many others do not see (IMO).

His habitual positive attitude seems to be waning, like General Wesley Clark (Another One Bites The Dust).

General Clark is a man who Dr. Titley reminds me of.

Read between the lines: