Friday, October 18, 2019


All about bull
I. Get Bullish

Bull is a TV series that features and focuses on a company which specializes in court trials.

More specifically, Bull focuses in on the social science involved with jury selection.

Typically, law firms hire jury experts to inform them about the type of jurors that would be best suited for them and their client in a jury trial (Trial consulting).

II. Special Mob Bull

What mob boss would not love to be able to hand pick their own jury, a jury like The Donski (a.k.a. the president of the United States of America) has?!

Imagine a mob boss who is going on trial before a true jury of his peers (e.g. same crime family)?

I am talking about the jury who will hear the case of The Donski (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20).

His jury has already been selected (the U.S. Senate) and has already indicated how they will vote.

In a Senate trial it takes 67 votes to convict and remove The Donski from office, following a House impeachment.

The Senate currently has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents who both caucus with the Democrats.

Thus, it would take 20 Republicans voting guilty if all the Democrats and Independents vote guilty to reach the 67 required vote total.

A tough job even for Bull.

III. McTell News Bull

McTell News is all aflutter with hopey changey broadcasts emphasizing the fact that the public majority is in favor of impeachment and removal from office of The Donski:
"Currently, 52% say Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while 46% say he should not be. This is roughly the opposite of what Gallup found in June when asked in the context of special counselor Robert Mueller's investigation."
(Gallup Poll). No doubt about the direction this is heading, but heading in a direction is not the same as being there (it's all "are we there yet" at this point).

The McTell News folks under-emphasize the fact that only about six percent of Republicans polled in that Gallup Poll are in favor of impeachment and removal (down from seven percent a while back).

Like I said, a tough job even for Bull.

IV. Closing Comments

It would be malpractice for a lawyer to encourage a client in this situation, as it stands today, to expect a good outcome in that client's favor.

Especially if the client is the prosecutor or the majority in the House of Representatives.

Even though some of the jury's heroes (e.g.  4-star Admirals) indicate that The Donski is dangerously anti-American (Our Republic Is Under Attack From the PresidentAdmiral William McRaven: America Is ‘Under Attack’ From TrumpTrump: The Un-American President).

Can you see a despotic minority (How To Identify The Despotic Minority, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)?

Stay tuned to the saga of The Donski Hotey trial.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

How Much Sea Level Rise Makes A Sea Port Extinct?

That is enough (~1.25%)
I. Not Much

What percent of the Cryosphere has to melt in order to endanger world sea ports?

It varies with the age of the sea port and the location.

In other words, some sea ports are more vulnerable than others.

But a very general rule of thumb is that about one meter of global mean average sea level rise will cause serious problems at some seaports.

II. Cryosphere Locations

Many sea ports have been discussed in principle in this light in many previous Dredd Blog posts (e.g. Proxymetry3).

The table below indicates how much melt, percentage wise, of the various Cryosphere locations would add up to one meter of mean sea level rise.

That table shows location, volume, maximum sea level rise, and the percentage of melt it takes to add up to one meter of global mean average sea level rise.

Isn't it surprising that only about 1.25% of the Cryposphere needs to melt in order to threaten civilization's seaports with a meter of sea level rise?

Location Volume (km) Max SLR (m) SLR @ ~1.25% (m)
East Antarctic ice sheet26,039,20064.80.806773
West Antarctic ice sheet3,262,0008.060.100349
Antarctic Peninsula227,1000.460.00572709
All Other180,0000.450.00560259

The added impact of ghost water (click to enlarge table below):

See USGS Source and The Ghost-Water Constant

III. Closing Comments

For individual sea port characteristics, see Seaports With Sea Level Change - 6 and appendices.

Note also that "ghost water" can hasten a sea port's demise (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4, 5; NASA Busts The Ghost).