Wednesday, November 23, 2016

The Warming Science Commentariat - 11

Fig. 1 San Francisco; PSMSL Stn. # 10
I. The Senseless Background

Some bitchy little scientists at JPL, who have a vested interest in satellites, are in a tizzy evidently because of the success of tide gauge station records (PSMSL).

They have helped to write a whiney little paper that is devoid of relevant facts.

But it is rich in casting of aspersions imagined by their unprofessional emotional reaction to a reality which those types of scientists have missed for over a century.

Some locations in the blogosphere squeal with delight when they parrot these bogus papers and come out all cockeyed to splash them on their posts with glee.

This does a disservice to the realities of climate change and sea level science, and to the competent scientists who labor in that field.

Mature blogs should be aware of the science and the Oil-Qaeda manipulations contrary to the science (Smoke & Fumes).

And, they should be exposing Oil-Qaeda, not glossing over Oil-Qaeda propaganda.

They should be exposing ignorance and propaganda as Dredd Blog does (The Warming Science Commentariat - 10).

For example, a recent post somewhere in the warming science commentariat begins:
"A new NASA and university study using NASA satellite data finds that tide gauges -- the longest and highest-quality records of historical ocean water levels -- may have underestimated the amount of global average sea level rise that occurred during the 20th century.
...
It's not that there's something wrong with the instruments or the data, said Thompson, but for a variety of reasons, sea level does not change at the same pace everywhere at the same time.
...
As it turns out, our best historical sea level records tend to be located where 20th century sea level rise was most likely less than the true global average."
(Desdemona Despair). The quote ends with an utterly stupid sentence containing the phrase "true global average" as if that is the holy grail that sea level science is supposed to attain (it has led scientists "astray for the last hundred years" - Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica, 1st video below).

To top that off, the clueless writer indicates that some of the tide gauge stations are located where sea level change is not the same as everywhere else.

This is tantamount to claiming that thermometers are problematic because they are in locations where the temperature is less than at other places.

That is utterly senseless (they should do this Naval Academy exercise).

Equally scientifically senseless is the associated sentence "for a variety of reasons, sea level does not change at the same pace everywhere at the same time" (as if that has anything to do with where tide gauges are located).

Furthermore, that "not the same" has been known since at least 1888:
To our knowledge, Woodward (1888) was the first to demonstrate that the rapid melting of an ice sheet would lead to a geographically variable sea level change. Woodward (1888) assumed a rigid, non-rotating Earth, and therefore self-gravitation of the surface load was the only contributor to the predicted departure from a geographically uniform (i.e. eustatic) sea level rise. This departure was large and counter-intuitive. Specifically, sea level was predicted to fall within ∼2000 km of a melting ice sheet, and to rise with progressively higher amplitude at greater distances. The physics governing this redistribution is straightforward.
(On the West Side of Zero, quoting Mitrovica 2011). The content of that basic Woodward (1888) paper has been improved upon in the past decade.

Especially by Dr. Mitrovica et alia:
"Data from global tide gauges stretching back a century have confirmed differences in the rate of sea-level rise from one place to another. Mitrovica’s work not only explained why this is so, but showed how the signals from each melt source—the pattern of progressively higher rates of sea-level rise at locations farthest from an ice sheet—could be disentangled to infer how rapidly Greenland’s ice sheets, or those in Antarctica, are melting. Among the places distant from both poles that will be hit hard are the east and west coasts of North America."
(Harvard Magazine; cf. video below). Intuition can be an enemy of scientific understanding from time to time.

II. The Sense of Reality

The photo in Fig. 1 is a picture of the real thing:
"On June 30, 1854, the United States Coast Survey, the oldest federal scientific agency, installed a self-recording tide gauge in San Francisco Bay. This station has measured the rise and fall of tides continuously ever since, making it the nation’s oldest continually operating tidal observation station. This location also has the longest continuous tide record in the Western Hemisphere. The gauge even survived the earthquake of 1906.

The San Francisco tide station plays an important role in navigation, ocean science, and climatology today as it has throughout its 150-year history. Besides guiding mariners to safe passage, the station monitors sea level change and tsunamis and helps measure the effects of the El Niño and La Niña global climate phenomena on sea level. Soon after its installation in 1854, the gauge measured tsunami waves generated by an earthquake in Japan. This helped to estimate the average depth of the Pacific Ocean.

The station is part of the National Water Level Observation Program, which consists of 175 continuously operating water level measurement stations along the U.S. coasts and the Great Lakes regions."
(NOAA, emphasis added). And, there is this:
"The global sea level record from tide gauges is an important indicator of the evolution and impact of global climate change. Tide gauge data also capture a variety of local and regional phenomena related to decadal climate variability, tides, storm surges, tsunamis, swells, and other coastal processes. Tide gauge data are used to validate ocean models and to detect errors and drifts in satellite altimetry."
(NCAR UCAR, emphasis added). It is not difficult to get the picture if one is really inclined to honestly try to get it.

III. The Dangers of a Sleeping Commentariat

The second video below (Professor Wilkerson) indicates why it is very important for civilians to stay vigilant on climate change matters that relate to sea level.

In fact, he explains why it is "extremely dangerous" for civilians not to grasp the security ramifications.

A Forbes article confirms Wilkerson's characterization of the Military's serious concerns about climate change (Does Our Military Know Something We Don't About Global Warming?).

The previous post in this series is here.


08:00 "the global average ... what seems to be a very logical thing to do has led us astray for the last hundred years ... the mainstream way of doing this ..."



"The Military is the lead federal agency on climate change ... and that is ... extremely dangerous ... we may lose the republic ..." - Professor Wilkerson (ret. colonel)



Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Watching The Arctic Die - 2

Fig. 1 NSIDC graph
Yesterday's post had two graphs of the sea ice in the Arctic, which, as Fig. 1 shows, continues on a record breaking path.

Fig. 2 World Ocean Database zones
One scientist says there is a climate emergency (A Climate Emergency).

Another says the situation is ridiculous: “​The ridiculously warm temperatures in the Arctic during October and November this year are off the charts over our 68 years of measurements,” Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at Rutgers University who studies the Arctic, said (Climate Central).

Today, let's look at the WOD Zones above Latitude 80 North, which are 1800-1817 and 7800-7817 (Fig. 2, above red line at top of graph).
Fig. 3 WOD records (CTD & PFL)

Fig.4 Antarctica has an impact on Arctic SLC
I made a graph from the WOD record of temperatures from 1977-2016, which shows suspect warming since 2012 (Fig. 3).

A previous post mentioned warm water flowing from "The Blob" into Arctic regions (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR? - 4).

That warmer water combined with the warmer air makes for not only ice extent shrinking, but also for sea level fall (SLF) as shown in Fig. 4.

Fig. 5 Greenland SLF & SLR impact

The greatest sea level change in the area is caused by the melting Greenland ice sheet (Fig. 5)

But as the Arctic sea ice melts it will be relocated toward the equator to cause a wee bit of sea level rise (SLR) there.

That wee bit will be added to the much greater amount also relocated there, caused by both Greenland ghost-water and melt-water (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).
Fig. 6 Antarctica SLF & SLR impact

This is, of course, because the ocean is not a bathtub (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2).

The graph at Fig. 4 shows not only the SLF caused by Greenland ice sheet demise, but also the SLR that Antarctica's demise causes there in the Greenland area (Fig. 6).

Ice sheets and glaciers have an impact on the sea level at other ice sheet and glacial areas that are near the ocean.

In other words, as the Greenland ice sheet melts and calves away, its gravity decreases which releases water around it to move toward the equator and raise water level even all the way down to Antarctica.

That replaces some of the water that is released from Antarctica as its ice sheet 
melts and calves away (each adds to the other).

Another factor of the dying Arctic is the demise of the polar vortex:
Under normal climate conditions, cold air is confined to the Arctic by the polar vortex winds, which circle counter-clockwise around the North Pole. As sea ice coverage decreases, the Arctic warms, high pressure builds, and the polar vortex weakens, sending cold air spilling southward into the mid-latitudes, bringing record cold and fierce snowstorms. At the same time, warm air will flow into the Arctic to replace the cold air spilling south, which drives more sea ice loss.
(Watching The Arctic Die). The sad part of this is that we are watching our world be murdered by a private empire of psychopaths (MOMCOM: The Private Parts, 2, 3, 4, 5; Smoke & Fumes).

The previous post in this series is here.



Monday, November 21, 2016

Mega Infrastructure Bill To Make Jobs? - 2

Fig. 1 Serious Arctic Climate Change
I. Background

There has been talk for many years about degenerating U.S. infrastructure.

It came up in the presidential election and in comments from a bi-partisan list of Senate and House members.

Infrastructure upgrade is a good thing they say, but once again Dredd Blog wonders about and asks "what is infrastructure?" that they keep talking about like they do with other dog whistles.

II. What Is Infrastructure?

Is it just the great anti-immigrant wall that middle class workers are going to build and Mexico is allegedly going to pay for?

Fig. 2 Trend?
Does it include repairing the global warming induced climate change damage, caused by past catastrophe after catastrophe which insurance companies worriedly talk about (The Evolution and Extinction of Affordable Insurance) ?

Does it include damage by ongoing and future sea level rise and fall (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5) ?

The graphs at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 show that the Arctic sea ice is still losing extent even in the middle of November, which means that Greenland will also lose more of its ice sheet, and thereby cause even more sea level change (The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points - 2).

III. Military Infrastructure

The military sees climate change as the major threat to its infrastructure, as Dredd Blog has pointed out for years (Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity, 2009; Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity - 2, 2016).

Professor, and Colonel, Wilkerson points out in the video below that the top Naval installation in Norfolk, VA and the Air Force headquarters airport runway near there, both flood due to sea level rise.

The word Dredd Blog has been spreading all these years is getting around:
Based on these calculations, the report says a three-foot sea level rise would threaten 128 U.S. military bases, valued at roughly $100 billion.

Nine of those bases are major hubs for the Navy: In addition to Norfolk, flooding threatens Naval Station Mayport, Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay in Georgia and the Naval Academy in Maryland, where 2003's Hurricane Isabel flooded classrooms, dormitories and athletic facilities.

It's not just the Navy. Marine Corps Recruit Depot Parris Island is at risk of being completely underwater. All told, three Marine Corps installations, two joint bases, an Air Force base and a Coast Guard Station are also at risk of daily flooding, the report said.
(The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 9, quoting Navy Times). The dangers that Professor Wilkerson talks about in today's video are, in his words, "extremely dangerous".

He sees the brain-lock in congress and in the approaching presidency, concerning the global climate change national security threat, as a "complete vacuum" where the military has always stepped in to take over.

IV. Ghost Infrastructure?

Or is "infrastructure" the ghost-infrastructure Dredd Blog has been asking about for years now:
We are talking about "the most expensive public works legislation in US history" having creative billions reserved as special earmarking to the tune of "$24 billion for a staggering 6,376 pet projects, spread among virtually every congressional district in the land".

"The enormous bill -- 1,752 pages long" costing "$286.4 BILLION" known as "the highway bill" was the republican congress and republican president's bill passed in late 2005.

But it did not stop the Minnesota bridge from collapsing and killing American citizens, nor did it stop the great recession that is still ongoing.

So how is the next most expensive public works legislation in US history going to be any different?

The answer is that nothing is going to work until we stop destroying wealth with the stupid wars, the stupid military spending gone pork barrel wild, and the stupid military propaganda deciding our fate.

Read this following quote slowly, remembering that it was done while the exorbitant costs of war were not being included in the budget a few years back, while everyone was smitten with bubbleosis, that economic disease which says this economic universe is expanding forever baby, and while we were in the love of war daze:
AT $286.4 BILLION, the highway bill just passed by Congress is the most expensive public works legislation in US history. In addition to funding the interstate highway system and other federal transportation programs, it sets a new record for pork-barrel spending, earmarking $24 billion for a staggering 6,376 pet projects, spread among virtually every congressional district in the land. The enormous bill -- 1,752 pages long -- wasn't made public until just before it was brought to a vote, and so, as The New York Times noted, ''it is safe to bet that none of the lawmakers, not even the main authors, had read the entire package."

That didn't stop them from voting for it. It passed 412 to 8 in the House, 91 to 4 in the Senate.
(Boston Globe, August 2005, emphasis added, see also PBS Transcript). Once again, why didn't the greatest infrastructure spending in fiscal history not help the economy?
(Mega Infrastructure Bill To Make Jobs?, Dredd Blog, 2009). That money went somewhere but it did not fix the still-crumbling infrastructure (Inferior Structure, 2, Famous Last Words,The Homeland: Big Brother Plutonomy - 4).

That is likely to continue in the current corrupt state of things (Getting Caught Is The Only No-No).

V. Trump Infrastructure Vision

How hard engineering concepts can become "political" is only understood completely by a trip down along Highway 61 (War is the Highway 61 of the 1%).

Here is the current rap on trumpfrastructure:
It was supposed to be a big, beautiful infrastructure bill. But President-elect Donald Trump’s pitch for a $1 trillion upgrade of the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels and airports is already running into potholes as it meets reality in Washington.

The overwhelming sticking point, as always, is how to pay for it.
(Infrastructure according to Trump, "plan hits D.C. speed bumps"). The situation seems to be that everything everywhere is now "politically controversial," which is not the essence of a stable country.

VI. Conclusion

Pay attention to the video below, because it probably offers the answer to the question: Will The Military Become The Police?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.

The previous post in this series is here.