Saturday, February 27, 2016

The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water

Fig. 1 The Flat Earth Water Model
I. Start Here

Hey bathtub modellers !

Why is my bathtub water level dropping as I pour more water into it?

Lots more !

Were some of the "ancients" not so mystical after all ?

Such as Woodward (1888) ?

Didn't see that movie ?

Anyway, here are some discussions about the bathtub boogie (Bathtub Models, Modified Bathtub Model, Limits of the Bathtub Analogy, DEM Bathtubs, More About BT Models).

And, here are some discussions about the ghost-water in the not-a-bathtub model (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4; The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4).

So, my questions for the bathtub modelers is why is the most intense sea level change (SLC) (recorded in tide gauges around the globe) sea level fall (SLF)?

Why is the ocean level near the ice sheets and out to ~2,000 km proportionally dropping?

Where in the bathtub is that water?

II. The Sea is Falling, the Sea is Falling !!

Fig. 2
According to current bathtub science, when the Sun heated the Arctic ocean in the 19th and 20th centuries the oceans warmed up and caused thermal expansion there, so the sea level there rose.

Fig. 3
Current bathtub model science continues to tell us that, in the 21st century, it is still the same way.

Therefore, the areas with the most heat increase anomalies (e.g. the Arctic) have the most sea level rise (SLR).

The hypothesis is based on a notion that because the ocean is like water in a bathtub, it rises when more water or ice is added to it, and it rises evenly everywhere.
Fig. 4

Add to that the notion that heated water levels rise evenly across the oceans by thermal-expansion.

Further, in the bathtub model of pop-science, when the land based glaciers, or the ice sheets, melt or calve into the ocean around the land mass they are upon, then the sea level there bathtubically rises too.

The only problem with the hypothesis is that it actually doesn't.

Fig. 5
The Arctic ocean near Greenland, and out about 2,000 km from there, has been falling lower.

Not only that, this has been happening since tide gauge stations began meticulous monitoring of sea levels circa 1774 (Fig. 10).

Fig. 6

They have continued to drop in that area for almost 3 centuries up until the present time (Fig. 2, Fig. 4, Fig. 6, and Fig. 8).

Fig. 7
Many researchers are not aware of this because of the global sea level dynamic used by the bathtub model afficionados.

Which would be the majority of sea level researchers in the science commentariat (The Warming Science Commentariat, 2).

There is a better explanation.
Fig. 8

Fig. 9

III. An Alternate Model

As to inside matters, I can only speak for the Dredd Blog model.

It is based on the notion that the ocean is incredibly multifaceted and wondrous.

Especially the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.

Fig. 10
The fact that those two are the major players in SLC, once global warming has heated them up, renders the concept pushed by the bathtub model gang into child's play or a nursery rhyme.

So, the Dredd Blog model tracks the major players in SLC back to their origin.

Depending on an observer's location, each of those two places, those two major sources, must be considered carefully.

Everything important that is happening in those two places are major considerations.

Depending on the mass audience being addressed, a "global mean average sea level" and other bathtub model talk, can actually obscure rather than reveal.

Bathtub model talk tends to obscure the way to respond to the changing sea, and to obscure its threat to civilization itself.

The Dredd Blog software, therefore, focuses on what is impacting any particular geographic area.

It does so by estimating how much sea level drama comes from events in Antarctica, Greenland, and any other relevant locales. and the resulting impact on a small area.

The results are presented in terms of major percentages of that sea change caused by the major factors. the major origins.

It also identifies the "type" of the source, in addition to identifying the location of that source of the local area's sea change.

That analysis is performed by 1) calculating whether the current rise or fall in sea level was caused by ice mass loss, 2) by relocation of the resulting coastal melt-water, 3) relocation of ghost-water, and 4) even the minor changes caused by the minor players (e.g. thermal expansion, land rise or fall, and so forth).

"Relocation" means water and ice being moved to a new and different location -  in the direction of the Equator.

IV. Sea Level Rise Is An Invasion

Water entering the ocean from melting ice sheets is joined by water already in the ocean, held near the shore by ice mass gravity.

It too is released from the hold of the ice sheet as ice mass is lost to the ocean (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3, 4).

Together, they answer the call of a new pull on them, a new influence caused by the Earth's rotation.

Their journey to answer the call is a long journey to the "center of the Earth."

You know, the Equator.

That is the way things happen on a spinning globe (You Are Here).

The spinning rotation pulls on and sends things toward the Equatorial Bulge.

There, when they marshal forces they also add to SLR, but back home from whence they came, their removal and relocation is a loss, and is the reason the sea is falling (SLF) back at their previous home.

It all starts when fossil fuels are burned, which constitute the first shots fired in a global world war, an invasion of the planet by Oil-Qaeda, together its involuntary slaves (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder- 2).

Then, the ghosts of fossil fuels past waft up into the once clear and pure air to block or impair the return of the proper amount of good heat to another space.

Heat that has been naturally and properly injected into our Earthly realm by the venerable Sun.

As we all know, that constant heat influx from the Sun must be balanced by a constant and relatively equal heat outflow, i.e., heat heading back into the open space of the universe from whence it came.

When the nature of that in = out system is taken captive by the green house gas gang of vigilantes, near the border of space, there will be SLC.

Which has negative consequences that give new meaning to "taking a bath."

If that proper amount of heat, which is appropriately trying to exit the scene, is stopped at the border and therefore can't exit, then the balance of climate sanity is overthrown.

Things then heat up in more ways than one.

V. Invasive Abiotic Species

You know what happens when things get crazy.

Somebody wants to start a war.

Well, there is a creeping thing now hanging around the shoreline.

Creeping inward across a border.

No, not hippies or surfers.

It is that water from afar, now crossing over the borderline.

Build a wall!

Duke Nuke em!

VI. Conclusion

All the bar-room wisdom is unavailing (Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion).

Oil Qaeda ignorantly started a war against the Earth before we were born (The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads - 2).

Analyzing this predicament as if we are playing with our rubber ducky in a bathtub is utter madness.

The next post in this series is here.

at ~31:14: "By taking the [global] average you're assuming something, and you're assuming it implicitly. You're assuming what we call the bathtub model." - Dr. Mitrovica

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