Saturday, August 4, 2018

Gassifer 2.0: The Least Coast

Fig. 1 Sea level Rise @ U.S. East Coast
There are some exotic WOD Zones far away in distant lands, and there are some WOD Zones where millions of people live and work.

One of those zones has U.S. East Coast boundaries within its borders.

That zone is #7307 which today I feature along with its high sea level rise rate, a rate that is threatening some significant sea ports and coastal habitations that will impact millions of Americans.

Fig. 2 Thermosteric Sea level rise contribution
Some property value decline is futuristic loss (Coming crisis of coastal flooding: $1 trillion of real estate at risk by 2100).

But some of it has already happened and is currently happening in the Carolinas (Sea level rise has already sunk Carolinas beach property values — by $1.6 billion, study finds).

That is only two states.

Add the other states in WOD Zone 7307 to the loss and "we are talking money" as the porkiticians used to say about taxpayer dollars they were spending.

Read more here: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/technology/article215476785.html#storylink=c).

The graph at Fig. 1 shows the sea level change since the year 1900, and the graph at Fig. 2 shows the thermal expansion and contraction contribution for the year 2016.

The links below are PSMSL tide gauge stations which provided the data with which to generate the graph at Fig. 1 (the Dredd Blog PSMSL database was updated 23 Jul 2018).

The graph at Fig. 2 was generated from The World Ocean Database (WOD) CTD and PFL data using the TEOS-10 library software.


PHILADELPHIA (PIER 9N) [stn. #135, yrs of data: 118]
REEDY POINT [stn. #786, yrs of data: 33]
ATLANTIC CITY [stn. #180, yrs of data: 104]
BALTIMORE [stn. #148, yrs of data: 116]
ANNAPOLIS (NAVAL ACADEMY) [stn. #311, yrs of data: 88]
CAPE MAY [stn. #1153, yrs of data: 49]
MATAPEAKE [stn. #1338, yrs of data: 10]
WASHINGTON DC [stn. #360, yrs of data: 87]
LEWES (BREAKWATER HARBOR) [stn. #224, yrs of data: 79]
INDIAN RIVER INLET [stn. #1337, yrs of data: 11]
CAMBRIDGE [stn. #481, yrs of data: 10]
CAMBRIDGE II [stn. #1295, yrs of data: 47]
OCEAN CITY INLET [stn. #2292, yrs of data: 19]
SOLOMON'S ISLAND (BIOL. LAB.) [stn. #412, yrs of data: 81]
PINEY POINT [stn. #971, yrs of data: 13]
RICHMOND [stn. #462, yrs of data: 27]
GLOUCESTER POINT [stn. #597, yrs of data: 53]
KIPTOPEKE BEACH [stn. #636, yrs of data: 67]
CHESAPEAKE BAY BR. TUN. [stn. #1635, yrs of data: 33]
SEWELLS POINT [stn. #299, yrs of data: 91]
VIRGINIA BEACH [stn. #945, yrs of data: 12]
PORTSMOUTH (NORFOLK NAVY YARD) [stn. #399, yrs of data: 53]
DUCK PIER OUTSIDE [stn. #1636, yrs of data: 33]
CAPE HATTERAS [stn. #2294, yrs of data: 26]
BEAUFORT [stn. #2295, yrs of data: 45]
MOREHEAD CITY [stn. #719, yrs of data: 10]
WILMINGTON [stn. #396, yrs of data: 83]
SOUTHPORT [stn. #1431, yrs of data: 13]
MYRTLE BEACH [stn. #862, yrs of data: 16]
SPRINGMAID PIER [stn. #1444, yrs of data: 35]
CHARLESTON I [stn. #234, , yrs of data: 97]

The century-old work of Oil-Qaeda is coming home to roost roast (Humble Oil-Qaeda, 2).

These trade wars commenced by Oil-Qaeda are based upon trading CO2 for land along the coast (a.k.a. real estate).

Nature says "pump too much of that stuff into my air and I will trade you some land along the coast for it."

The nickname for it is "Make The East Coast the Least Coast Again."

For some reason, "asstute businesses" think this is a good deal, but really it is the art of the steal.

The extinction of far away vast areas, and areas of the nearer East Coast, is in the cards in this comic cosmic trade war:
"By the 2070s, total population exposed could grow more than threefold to around 150 million people due to the combined effects of climate change (sea-level rise and increased storminess), subsidence, population growth and urbanisation. The asset exposure could grow even more dramatically, reaching US $35,000 billion [35 Trillion or twice the US GDP] by the 2070s; more than ten times current levels and rising to roughly 9% of projected global GDP in this period. On a global-scale, for both types of exposure, population growth, socio-economic growth and urbanization are the most important drivers of the overall increase in exposure. Climate change and subsidence significantly exacerbate this effect although the relative importance of these factors varies by location. Exposure rises most rapidly in developing countries, as development moves increasingly into areas of high and rising flood risk."

[CAUTION: the most often occurring event in projecting temperature, CO2, and sea level rise is UNDERESTIMATION]
(Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes, cf. The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; The Extinction of Charleston, The Extinction of Philadelphia, The Extinction of Washington, D.C., The Extinction of Boston, The Extinction of Miami, The Extinction of Manzanillo, The Extinction of Houston, The Extinction of Providence, The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands).

There are no trump cards (not even denial).



Friday, August 3, 2018

When You Are Governed By Psychopaths - 8

"The press is the enemy of the people." - Stalin Trump
This series began a little over six years ago.

It began with an observation that our culture was becoming psychopathic (When You Are Governed By Psychopaths, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

Which of course was rejected by the "it can't happen here" crowd (LieGate).

This reality I was writing about is now here for all to see (President Trump's spokeswoman declines to say if press is 'enemy of the people' during combative briefing).

The second reaction to the subject of this series was to enter the individualism trance.

The toxins of that trance cause us to advance the notion that this is a one-person problem, rather than a 62,984,825 person problem.

When the people are consistently misinformed about real problems with rhetorical pabulum and deceit ("listen people, everything is going fine") then the direction a nation adopts is quite predictable (Agnotology: The Surge, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20; Etiology of Social Dementia, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18).

History told us this was going to happen:
But always TCS is primarily the population segment diagnosed as a despotic minority which the once most-often-quoted historian, Toynbee, fingered as one of the members of the trinity of extinction that he found in all civilizations that were about to become very successful at becoming extinct:
That something is the dementia that produces and ends up in suicide:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."
(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). There is no cure for the final symptom of that group dementia, there is only prevention by way of avoiding it altogether in the first place.

The components of that group dementia were pointed out in an encyclopedia piece concerning that historian quoted above:
"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. Unlike Spengler in his The Decline of the West, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable, for it may or may not continue to respond to successive challenges. Unlike Karl Marx, he saw history as shaped by spiritual, not economic forces" ...
(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). The show stopper, in terms of remedy, in this type of group dementia is that it is a contagious dementia.
(Etiology of Social Dementia - 18). That particular "minority" is not a racial or ethnic minority, rather, it is primarily composed of a destructive suicidal trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
(Arrested Development: The Creep State). Our culture is composed, now, of the toxins of power that habitually destroy nations and civilizations (Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala - 2).

Remember the prophesy of one of our founding fathers:
Our founders were well aware of the question and the answer hundreds of years ago.

They spoke the answer with unmistakable words and with certain clarity:
Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes; and armies, and debts, and taxes are the known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. In war, too, the discretionary power of the Executive is extended; its influence in dealing out offices, honors, and emoluments is multiplied: and all the means of seducing the minds, are added to those of subduing the force, of the people. The same malignant aspect in republicanism may be traced in the inequality of fortunes, and the opportunities of fraud, growing out of a state of war, and in the degeneracy of manners and of morals, engendered by both. No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare. Those truths are well established.
(James Madison, emphasis added). The visionary who made that statement was the 4th President of the United States, Bill of Rights author, Congressman, Cabinet Member, and who was also called the "Father of the U.S. Constitution".

The above quote is from his "Political Observations," April 20, 1795, in Letters and Other Writings of James Madison, Volume IV, page 491-492.
(The Greatest Source Of Power Toxins?).

Remember "No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare. Those truths are well established."

The previous post in this series is here.

Thursday, August 2, 2018

The World According To Measurements - 19

General Ocean Temperatures
In the previous post of this series we looked at two polar zones, one Arctic the other Antarctic, and compared them one to the other.

They contrasted each another in various ways.

They also differ from zones nearer to the Equator as shown by the graphic to the left, which was also featured in that previous post (The World According To Measurements - 18).

I am featuring that generalization graphic again in today's post.

The two zones discussed in today's post are Equatorial zones 7016 and 5016, which have the same longitudes as the two former zones, but of course have different latitudes, one latitude being the Equator.

I am using the same general display layout of the graphs in the post which is three sections (Conservative Temperature, Absolute Salinity, and Thermosteric Sea Level Change).
Fig. 1a
Fig. 1b

The Conservative Temperature graphs are in section one (Fig. 1a and Fig. 1b), the Absolute Salinity graphs are in section two (Fig. 2a and Fig. 2b), and the Thermosteric Sea Level Change graphs are in section three (Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b).

The major addition today is section four, which contains the data values that were used to generate the graphs (Fig. 4a - Fig. 4b).

Fig. 2a
Fig. 2b
On to the discussion.

Notice that the Conservative Temperature graphs in section one (Fig. 1a and Fig. 1b), are the pattern suggested in the generalization graphic at the top of today's post.

That is not surprising in the sense that the two WOD Zones (7016, 5016) have a shared boundary, which is the Equator.

The Equator is the southern boundary of WOD Zone 7016 and the northern boundary of WOD Zone 5016 (one is in the Northern Hemisphere, the other is in the Southern Hemisphere).

The Absolute Salinity graphs (Fig. 2a and Fig. 2b) have a similar pattern as well, with some variation.
Fig. 3a
Fig. 3b

The Thermosteric Sea Level Change is another story (Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b) because the patterns have significant contrast.

That is surprising because the depth levels are of course identical.

I suspect that the differences are due to WOD Zone 7016 being north of WOD Zone 5016, and that could put them in different ocean current routes.

The year in which the in situ measurements were taken is 2016.

That year had some fluctuation that could have impacted the patterns as well (May 2016 El Niño/La Niña update, NOAA).

Another factor to consider is that the TEOS-10 calculations I make from the in situ measurements are quite specific, in the sense that the calculations are based on small mass units composed of depth slices.

Others may not use the same technique so they may miss this phenomenon.

I have been careful to use a fixed mass-unit value for depth measurements since a certain paper was published cautioning against less robust techniques:
One paper expands upon the proper techniques and procedures involved in steric vs eustatic analysis:
"A common practice in sea level research is to analyze separately the variability of the steric and mass components of sea level. However, there are conceptual and practical issues that have sometimes been misinterpreted, leading to erroneous and contradictory conclusions on regional sea level variability. The crucial point to be noted is that the steric component does not account for volume changes but does for volume changes per mass unit (i.e., density changes). This indicates that the steric component only represents actual volume changes when the mass of the considered water body remains constant."
(JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: OCEANS, VOL. 118, 953–963, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20060, by Gabriel Jordà and Damià Gomis, 2013; @p. 953, 954, emphasis added).
(On The More Robust Sea Level Computation Techniques). What that means is that for each depth level volume slice (e.g. 10m to 20m, 250m to 300m) the volume of the water being impacted by the temperature measurements being used to calculate thermal expanson / contraction must be individually and specifically calculated.

Fig. 4a
That means that the 10m-20m slice must use a 10m "h" value  but the 250m-300m slice must use a 50m "h" value because the formula involved is: v = lwh.

Mixing the volume values will cause inaccuracies.

Furthermore, that volume value must not be changed during the entire time frame being calculated (e.g. 1968-2016).

Finally, the individual zone volumes must be independently calculated as well, because they don't have the same area (length x width) because they are latitude / longitude boundaries (which vary from place to place) on the globe.

The accurate calculation of "volume changes per mass unit" requires usage of the same mass unit (v = lwh) throughout the time frame that the particular calculations cover.

Fig. 4b
Calculating the thermosteric volume changes requires the usage of temperatures taken within the same mass-unit of seawater.

That is how I calculate the values shown in Fig. 4a and Fig. 4b.

I am "going by the book" as they say.

I think that is why I am generally at odds with the general hypothesis in vogue these days that "thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise" (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36).

I am currently convinced that ice sheet and glacier melt water is the main cause of sea level rise, and in second place is the "ghost water" effect (NASA Busts The Ghost).

The previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

The World According To Measurements - 18

Antarctic Zone 5716
Arctic Zone 7716
In the last episode we looked at the difference in various measurement types of the world oceans (The World According To Measurements - 17).

I mentioned that the Dredd Blog SQL server had been updated with the latest WOD data (ibid).
Antarctic Zone 5716
Arctic Zone 7716

Antarctic Zone 5716
Arctic Zone 7716
A paper discussing the WOD data related to the Arctic Ocean was mentioned while I pointed out that one needs to have all of the WOD data of certain types to get the picture of variation.

Here at Dredd Blog, as I have mentioned from time to time, we use the CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth) and PFL (profile) datasets contained in the WOD database.

I have about 1.3 billion measurements from the CTD and PFL datasets which I use to contemplate the nature of the world oceans.

Today, let's look at two areas of the world ocean located at opposite polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) to see if our gut feelings can explain their nature robustly.

One might think that since the polar regions of the globe are cold regions which have land masses covered with ice sheets, which have ocean expanses covered with sea ice, and also have glaciers and icebergs, then they are essentially identical in nature.

No doubt there are similarities, but that has led us astray in the past, because the differences in their natures were not obvious.

So, to peer down into the depths of the Antarctic and Arctic ocean waters, I generated some graphs that show some of the contrasting nature of the ocean waters in those areas.

The Arctic graphs are concerned with WOD Zone 7716, while the Antarctic graphs are concerned with WOD Zone 5716.

In today's post there are three sections with two graphs in each section.

The top section concerns Conservative Temperature at all depths which have measurements recorded in the WOD database for that zone.

The middle section concerns Absolute Salinity at all depths which have measurements recorded in the WOD database for that zone.

The bottom section concerns Thermal Expansion / Contraction at all depths which have measurements recorded in the WOD database for that zone.

All of these values are calculated from in situ measurements using the TEOS-10 software library.

The in situ measurements used to generate all graphs in all three sections were measurements taken in the year 2016.
Idealized depth/temperatures

The top graph in each section concerns the Antarctic, while the lower graph in each section concerns the Arctic.

On to the differences.

In the first and second graphs in the first section of today's post, the Conservative Temperature of the seawater is depicted at depths of 10 meters down to 5,000 meters.

Notice that the Antarctic (Zone 5716) surface water is colder than the waters from about 1,000 meters on down, indicating that fresh melt-water is at the surface.

The Antarctic graph in the second section confirms that indication, showing that Absolute Salinity is less at the surface than it is from 1,000 meters on down (generally, fresher and lighter melt-water floats on top of the heavier salty seawater).

The Arctic seawater Conservative Temperature does not follow the Antarctic pattern, but the Absolute Salinity pattern is fairly close to it.

The Antarctic and Arctic Thermal Expansion / Contraction graphs in the third section are pretty much opposite to one another.

The "idealized" temperature at depth graphic (last graphic above) seems out of place eh?

I am working on software that will present a report of this type, but not in graph format, for all the WOD zones.

I will report on the results in future posts.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Monday, July 30, 2018

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 16

The Accused: The Only Member to man a fort.
Today we consider the member Rudy Poot, an ardent supporter of the ideology of Pootie Poot.

Yes, on the eve of the federal criminal trial of the first member of The Shape Shifters of Bullshitistan (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15) we consider the statement recently made by Rudy Poot: "collusion is not a crime."

Rudy Poot is defending all of The Accused with unheard of sayings like that (sayings which please The Don).

The Accused will be brought to court from a jail to hear no charges of collusion, because as Dredd Blog pointed out some time ago, there is no such crime in United States criminal statutes:
Over a half a decade ago I pointed out one bad habit of the mass media (Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories).

The McTell News (Blind Willie McTell News, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) has an aversion to "conspiracy theory" (On The Origin of "Conspiracy Theory", 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

One reason for that aversion is that some of the media who were CIA agents or assets wanted "conspiracy theory" to be relegated to the realm of evil thoughts (Mocking America, 2, 3, 4).

Instead, the McTell News like to make things up, like "collusion," their doublespeak word for the proper word "conspiracy."

Thus, they have. for months and months now, echoed daily the word "collusion" (which cannot be found in the criminal laws of the United States).

They have been caught in their own tongue twisting machinations.

The proper word is not "collusion," rather it is "conspiracy," as clearly shown in the criminal laws of The United States of America:
"If two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States, or to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than five years, or both."
(18 USC § 371, emphasis added, cf DOJ on conspiracy theory). This is a general conspiracy statute ("If two or more persons conspire ... to commit any offense against the United States ... in any manner or for any purpose").
(Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories - 2). The word 'collusion' does not appear in the criminal law of conspiracy.
(Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories - 3). The U.S. Department of Justice has never charged anyone with the "crime of collusion" for the simple reason that no such criminal statute exists.

However, as pointed out in the text of reality, criminal conspiracy law does exist:
Consider how a law school textbook might introduce the elements of traditional conspiracy law: Imagine that Joe and Sandra agree to rob a bank. From the moment of agreement, they can be found guilty of conspiracy even if they never commit the robbery (it’s called “inchoate liability”). Even if the bank goes out of business, they can still be liable for the conspiracy (“impossibility” is not a defense). Joe can be liable for other crimes that Sandra commits to further the conspiracy’s objective, like hot-wiring a getaway car (it’s called “Pinkerton” liability, after a 1946 Supreme Court case involving tax offenses). He can’t evade liability by staying home on the day of the robbery (a conspirator has to take an affirmative step to “withdraw”). And if the bank heist takes place, both Joe and Sandra can be charged with bank robbery and with the separate crime of conspiracy, each of which carries its own punishment (the crime of conspiracy doesn’t “merge” with the underlying crime). Why should conspiracy liability begin at the moment of “agreement,” before any crime is committed? Why can a conspirator be charged with both the inchoate offense of conspiracy and the robbery? Why should the law punish conspirators even if it’s impossible for them to commit the crime they planned? Why is withdrawal from a conspiracy so difficult?
(Conspiracy Theory, 112 Yale L.J. 1307 (2003), Preface,  emphasis added).  For those, such as Chris Matthews, TV lawyers Ari Melber & Jonathan Turley, and Nicolle Wallace, who think that collusion is a crime, go out and arrest someone and put them in jail for it

(Save up a lot of money first, because the lawsuit against you for false arrest will cost more than you think.)

UPDATE 8/1/18: Hat tip to Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe) for saying "... they were conspiring with Russia ... not colluding ... let's call it conspiracy" as it should be.

Conspiracy, among others, is the crime Mr. Manafort was charged with: "COUNT ONE ... Conspiracy against the United States" (https://www.cnn.com/.../indictment-manafort-gates/index.html).

So, tomorrow when the trial is scheduled to begin you will hear the word "collusion" used by the media who have been afraid to use the word "conspiracy" because their uncle at thanksgiving told them it was a no-no.

The fact that Rudy Poot knows that collusion is not a crime does not make Rudy Poot a good lawyer, because for one thing he too was caught up in the colludosphere along with the media.

Another reason that Rudy Poot is not lawyerly is that he trembles at the thought of entering a professional federal courtroom to deal with the reality produced by facts.

But, for some reason The Accused (The Don's Campaign Manager) who goes to trial tomorrow has enough "something" to go to trial under circumstances that caused a military general and several other members to cave in and plead guilty rather than face the music.

What is that something?

More than likely it is the same something deep within The Don: an overpowering fear of Pootie Poot.

"Better Red than dead" is the mantra produced by that fear.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.