Sunday, November 6, 2016

The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3

Fig. 1 Highest sea level areas
 I. Background

The previous post on Dredd Blog focused on, among other things, a clueless article in the Monkey Business Insider (The Warming Science Commentariat - 10, Section III).

Fig. 2 Relative sea levels (Cryosphere)
Today, I want to show how utterly clueless the monkey business article is, on the subject of tide gauge station records not being able to assist with sea level rise far out in the ocean, away from the coastline where tide gauge stations are located.

II. The Reality

The reality is that it is quite easy to get the picture from tide gauge station records.

First off, one needs to know where the high sea levels are gravitationally and rotationally located (Earth gravity, ice sheet gravity, and the Earth's rotation create these highest sea level areas; see The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4).

The graphics at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 show the higher and highest areas of the ocean (highest is in the Pacific with a 1.6 times higher area, and the next highest is in the Indian and South Atlantic ocean areas).

Next, to calculate the general sea level in those areas, all one needs to do is to get the sea level readings of a tide gauge station in the correct area, then multiply the appropriate values by 1.5 (Indian & S. Atlantic) or multiply by 1.6 (Pacific) to calculate those levels at any given time.

Then you can email the marine life there in the middle of nowhere and tell them about the sea level there. /snark

You can the use the tide gauge station record, as is, to inform humans who live near the tide gauge station about sea levels in their area.

Fig. 3


III. An Example

The graph at Fig. 3 is an example calculation from Dredd Blog software modules.

Those modules determine which WOD zones are along the equator, then query an SQL database (containing 1,465 PSMSL tide gauge station records from stations located around the globe) to determine which tide gauge station records to use.

Those data are averaged and changes are calculated, including the changes and sea level at the highest ocean levels way out in the middle of the ocean, far away from those stations.

Notice that Fig. 3 has four different panels based on the same data from the stations and zones listed in Section IV below.

The first panel ("RLR tide gauge sea level") pictures the RLR (Revised Local Reference) sea level.

The second panel ("sea level change @ tide gauges") shows the average change in sea level at the specified tide gauge stations.

Panel three ("sea level in 1.6 area") depicts the mean average of those same tide gauge stations multiplied by 1.6 (the area outlined as "1.6" in Fig. 2, its relative area marked by a red outlined rectangle with a small square at the center in Fig. 1).

The fourth and last panel ("sea level in 1.5 area") is the lower sea level in the area outlined as "1.5" on Fig. 2 (and shown by the other two rectangles at the Indian Ocean and the S. Atlantic on Fig. 1).

Note that the highest sea level (1.6 area) is 80.834 mm higher than the tide gauge station average shown in panel three on Fig. 3.

The second highest point (in the "1.5 area") is 67.362 mm higher than the tide gauge station average.

IV. The WOD Zones & PSMSL Stations

This section lists the zones and the tide gauge stations used to generate the data for the graph at Fig. 3 in Section III above (http links are provided below, to each PSMSL tide gauge station record used).

The WOD zone map is shown at Fig. 1:

Zone [1000] had [2] stations:

Stn# 1049, Stn# 389

Zone [1001] had [0] stations.
Zone [1002] had [0] stations.
Zone [1003] had [0] stations.
Zone [1004] had [0] stations.
Zone [1005] had [0] stations.
Zone [1006] had [0] stations.

Zone [1007] had [4] stations:

Stn# 438, Stn# 1072, Stn# 1258, Stn# 1753

Zone [1008] had [0] stations.

Zone [1009] had [5] stations:

Stn# 2195, Stn# 1752, Stn# 1676, Stn# 446, Stn# 2230

Zone [1010] had [25] stations:

Stn# 1595, Stn# 1594, Stn# 1591, Stn# 1593, Stn# 1677, Stn# 248, Stn# 1702, Stn# 1678, Stn# 1589, Stn# 1592, Stn# 1703, Stn# 1183, Stn# 1746, Stn# 1534, Stn# 2032, Stn# 1351, Stn# 2068, Stn# 2033, Stn# 1248, Stn# 2034, Stn# 1275, Stn# 1894, Stn# 724, Stn# 1895, Stn# 1896

Zone [1011] had [12] stations:

Stn# 1730, Stn# 1819, Stn# 1833, Stn# 1893, Stn# 1879, Stn# 1733, Stn# 1876, Stn# 1834, Stn# 1877, Stn# 1734, Stn# 2155, Stn# 207

Zone [1012] had [11] stations:

Stn# 1709, Stn# 2156, Stn# 537, Stn# 2152, Stn# 2153, Stn# 2175, Stn# 260, Stn# 2154, Stn# 2158, Stn# 2174, Stn# 1708

Zone [1013] had [1] station:

Stn# 1252

Zone [1014] had [0] stations.

Zone [1015] had [4] stations:

Stn# 528, Stn# 1473, Stn# 1370, Stn# 1925

Zone [1016] had [1] station:

Stn# 513

Zone [1017] had [6] stations:

Stn# 1381, Stn# 1579, Stn# 1739, Stn# 1804, Stn# 1217, Stn# 1838

Zone [3000] had [0] stations.

Zone [3001] had [1] station:

Stn# 938

Zone [3002] had [0] stations.

Zone [3003] had [2] stations:

Stn# 2183, Stn# 1600

Zone [3004] had [1] station:

Stn# 2198

Zone [3005] had [1] station:

Stn# 1846

Zone [3006] had [0] stations.

Zone [3007] had [3] stations:

Stn# 1740, Stn# 2190, Stn# 1707

Zone [3008] had [0] stations.
Zone [3009] had [0] stations.

Zone [3010] had [2] stations:

Stn# 2193, Stn# 2199

Zone [3011] had [2] stations:

Stn# 2197, Stn# 2200

Zone [3012] had [0] stations.

Zone [3013] had [1] station:

Stn# 2274

Zone [3014] had [7] stations:

Stn# 1303, Stn# 439, Stn# 1610, Stn# 1609, Stn# 1860, Stn# 1304, Stn# 1254

Zone [3015] had [4] stations:

Stn# 1164, Stn# 1608, Stn# 1373, Stn# 1861

Zone [3016] had [2] stations:

Stn# 1374, Stn# 1844

Zone [3017] had [2] stations:

Stn# 1452, Stn# 1839

Zone [5000] had [0] stations.

Zone [5001] had [1] station:

Stn# 1831

Zone [5002] had [0] stations.

Zone [5003] had [2] stations:

Stn# 556, Stn# 559

Zone [5004] had [2] stations:

Stn# 589, Stn# 580

Zone [5005] had [1] station:

Stn# 1975

Zone [5006] had [0] stations.

Zone [5007] had [2] stations:

Stn# 1277, Stn# 771

Zone [5008] had [4] stations:

Stn# 555, Stn# 544, Stn# 927, Stn# 475

Zone [5009] had [1] station:

Stn# 1645

Zone [5010] had [0] stations.
Zone [5011] had [0] stations.
Zone [5012] had [0] stations.
Zone [5013] had [0] stations.

Zone [5014] had [1] station:

Stn# 1555

Zone [5015] had [1] station:

Stn# 1450

Zone [5016] had [0] stations.

Zone [5017] had [2] stations:

Stn# 575, Stn# 1329

Zone [7000] had [2] stations:

Stn# 1313, Stn# 331

Zone [7001] had [0] stations.
Zone [7002] had [0] stations.
Zone [7003] had [0] stations.
Zone [7004] had [0] stations.

Zone [7005] had [1] station:

Stn# 2012

Zone [7006] had [0] stations.

Zone [7007] had [7] stations:

Stn# 456, Stn# 639, Stn# 163, Stn# 581, Stn# 1783, Stn# 1530, Stn# 169

Zone [7008] had [5] stations:

Stn# 464, Stn# 844, Stn# 2189, Stn# 668, Stn# 1571

Zone [7009] had [0] stations.
Zone [7010] had [0] stations.
Zone [7011] had [0] stations.
Zone [7012] had [0] stations.
Zone [7013] had [0] stations.
Zone [7014] had [0] stations.

Zone [7015] had [3] stations:

Stn# 1361, Stn# 801, Stn# 1371

Zone [7016] had [0] stations.
Zone [7017] had [0] stations.

Total Stations: 134


RE "Zone [7016] had [0] stations" and "Zone [7017] had [0] stations" etc ... note that zones way out in the ocean (where no people are) and zones over land only, will not have tide gauge stations.

For some reason, the marine life out there are unconcerned with the sea level changes since it does not affect them as it does humans.

V. Conclusion

The bathtub model trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) is not a good choice, as the Monkey Business Insider will hopefully find out soon enough.

The previous post in this series is here.

Homework for the Monkey Business Insider ... watch these, put your lab coat on, and get a fingerprint kit:



08:00 "the global average ... what seems to be a very logical thing to do has led us astray for the last hundred years ... the mainstream way of doing this ..."



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