Saturday, September 24, 2016

Epipelagic Magic

Fig. A Sea Level
Epigovernment?
I. Epibeginning

We mention the "surface" of the ocean a lot, without mentioning what "surface" means.

Is "surface" an inch deep, a foot deep, or what?

To oceanographers at least, it is 656.2 feet (200 meters) deep, and that ocean "surface" is called the Epipelagic Zone ("epi" means above: Epigovernment: The New Model).

So, "surface" is the layer above the Pelagic Zone (note that the Epipelagic is the thinnest zone of all the ocean layers).

The graphic @ Fig. A shows the ocean surface in contrast to the deeper zones under it.

One reason I mention "magic" (in the title of this post) is that this little engine that could , this "ocean surface," is said to be the MAJOR source of sea level rise for the past century (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

A hypothesis that I have criticized (The Warming Science Commentariat - 9, Questionable "Scientific" Papers - 3).

So, is the Epipelagic layer the epimagic government of sea level rise?

II. Epimath

The average ocean depth is said to be "about 12,100 feet" (NOAA), which is about 3,688 meters (Layers of the Ocean, NOAA).
Fig. B The Blob is smaller now

The average depth of the Epipelagic layer is 100 meters, which makes it about 3% of the total ocean mass.

Three percent of the ocean water mass is responsible for the MAJOR sea level rise over the past century?

Forget about the other 97% of the ocean .... just because "the Blob" ? (tail wagging the dog eh?)

IMO, that does not add up (Fig. A, Fig. B).

III. Epivolatility

Major sea level rise "over the past century" implies that the sea level is constantly rising, which would conjure up a mental picture of an increasingly warm surface it would seem.

Yet:
This heating is responsible for wide change in temperature that occurs in
Fig. 2 Stockholm "way back then"
this [Epipelagic] zone, both in the latitude and each season. The sea surface [Epipelagic] temperatures range from as high as 97°F (36°C) in the Persian Gulf to 28°F (-2°C) near the north pole.
(ibid, emphasis added). Would that be the reason for a century of sea level fall too (Proof of Concept - 3, 5) ?

The graph at Fig. 2 Stockholm "way back then" (a graph in a prior post) shows a constant downward sea level trend since about 1775 (@ Stockholm).

Note that 1775 was about 25 years after the 1750 industrial revolution began.

IV. A Better Epihypothesis

The cause of sea level fall in some areas together with a resulting sea level rise in other areas was set forth about one hundred and thirty eight years after the 1750 industrial revolution began:
To our knowledge, Woodward (1888) was the first to demonstrate that the rapid melting of an ice sheet would lead to a geographically variable sea level change. Woodward (1888) assumed a rigid, non-rotating Earth, and therefore self-gravitation of the surface load was the only contributor to the predicted departure from a geographically uniform (i.e. eustatic) sea level rise. This departure was large and counter-intuitive. Specifically, sea level was predicted to fall within ∼2000 km of a melting ice sheet, and to rise with progressively higher amplitude at greater distances. The physics governing this redistribution is straightforward.
(The Warming Science Commentariat, quoting Dr. Mitrovica, a Harvard professor). NASA is also aware of this phenomenon:
As any ice sheet melts, sea levels along coastlines as much as 1,500 miles
Fig. 2 The Battle of the Bulge
(2,000 kilometers) away will fall as seawater escapes from the reduced gravitational pull and the crust lifts. The escaping seawater flows clear across the equator: the melting of Antarctica affects the U.S. East and West coasts, and Greenland's disappearance impacts the coastline of Brazil. These regional differences are significant -- such as in the case of the East Coast of the United States.
(The Warming Science Commentariat - 3, quoting NASA). There it is, right out there in plain sight for those who do not hate Isaac Newton (see Fig. 2 The Battle of the Bulge, line in the quote just above).

Those who perpetuate the "thermal expansion as the MAJOR cause of sea level rise myth" are not aware of the major cause, which is melting ice sheets.

Nor are they aware of the second major cause of sea level rise and fall, even though it is in plain sight.

Therefore, it is called ghost water  (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

V. Conclusion

Magic, it's not just for genies anymore (On The Origin of Genieology, 2, 3);


Mykonos magic ("shadows of the mess you made") ... (lyrics here) ...



Changing of the Guards ... (lyrics here) ...

"Gentlemen, he said
I don’t need your organization, I’ve shined your shoes
I’ve moved your mountains and marked your cards
But Eden is burning, either brace yourself for elimination
Or else your hearts must have the courage for the changing of the guards"



Friday, September 23, 2016

Groundhog Day & The Climate of Fear - 2

Oh no, not again ...
In the first post of this series I was struck by the denialist infiltration of the political process:
"Have you noticed that those who want to be our leaders would not mention the global warming induced climate change during the presidential debates (see New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 9)?

It had been debated in every presidential debate since 1988 (ibid)."
(Groundhog Day & The Climate of Fear).

When asked why (for the first presidential debate in twenty years) was climate change not discussed in those debates, one observer gave this answer:
This morning on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Dr. Jeffry Sachs was asked "why didn't the presidential candidates discuss climate change in the debates", to which he replied "they are terrified of the oil companies."
(MOMCOM: The Private Parts - 4, emphasis added). That terrorism is one of the reasons why I call those oil companies "Oil-Qaeda".

They also like to be considered foreign entities:
For example, we focused on the statement of the CEO of ExxonMobil, who declared in an interview, "I am not an American company."
(ibid, emphasis in original, cf. 2nd video below). Oil-Qaeda has been aware of the catastrophic dangers of climate change since well before the 1988 disclosure to congress (Humble Oil-Qaeda, Smoke & Fumes).

That 1988 presidential debate date I mentioned above is not an arbitrary date.

No, it is the very year that the U.S. Senate held global warming related hearings:
The earth has been warmer in the first five months of this year than in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years ago, and the higher temperatures can now be attributed to a long-expected global warming trend linked to pollution, a space agency scientist reported today.

Until now, scientists have been cautious about attributing rising global temperatures of recent years to the predicted global warming caused by pollutants in the atmosphere, known as the ''greenhouse effect.''
(Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate, 1988). Interestingly, the Ground Hog Day movie was about a person reliving the same day over and over again, until he eventually tried suicide over and over again (see 1st video below).

Now, two decades later after the 1988 congressional hearings, we are living ground hog day climate change over and over again:
"The earth has been warmer in the first five months of this year than in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years ago ..." (NYT, 1988).

"The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for August 2016 was the highest for August in the 137-year period of record, marking the 16th consecutive month of record warmth for the globe." (NOAA, 2016).
It seems that civilization is stuck in the time warp that Mr. Connors was caught up in during the groundhog day movie.

Also, like with Mr. Connors in that movie, the issue of suicide is also a repeating feature of the global warming predicament:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee

"History repeats itself, and that's one of the things that's wrong with history." - Clarence Darrow
In the case of anthropogenic climate change brought on by Oil-Qaeda, this is sometimes said to be a self-induced situation.

That is a wrong trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully) because Oil-Qaeda is instigating and perpetuating mass murder, which is not a grass roots phenomenon (The Authoritarianism of Climate Change, MOMCOM's Mass Suicide & Murder Pact, 2, 3, 4, 5).

Like the militaristic police (Will The Military Become The Police?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) who are murdering black lives that matter right before our eyes (Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11) Oil-Qaeda is on the march against us.

Of course, they do this through their surrogate, which is the damaged global climate system, forged by their greed for money and power  (The Damaged Global Climate System, 2, 3, 4, 5).

They are an implant that is bringing an invasion against all nations and peoples:
The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

The Extinction of Charleston
The Extinction of Philadelphia
The Extinction of Washington, D.C.
The Extinction of Boston
The Extinction of Miami
The Extinction of Manzanillo
The Extinction of Houston
The Extinction of Providence
The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands
This, while they seek to influence governments to just count the bodies and bury them (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12).

"Move along folks, nothing to see here" (except the official threat to national security Oil-Qaeda poses: Green Report, Brad Blog).

The previous post in this series is here.

Deja Vu all over again ...





Thursday, September 22, 2016

Time Is An ocean But It Ends At The Shore

Fig. 1 More Here
One

I am including a couple of graphs today (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2).

The data were generated by the evolving sea level module I am writing (again).

It works with the module that processes WOD zones, but the difference is that it processes all PSMSL stations within a zone or zones, and makes historical graphs and future projection graphs for the list of zones requested (The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points (discusses software models).

Fig. 2 More Here
Two

Also FYI, I am passing along some quotes from some interesting articles:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has joined the growing list of agencies and offices probing ExxonMobil on climate change.

The federal agency has launched an investigation into how the oil and gas company values its future projects in the face of global climate change and plunging oil prices, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources.

The SEC, the Journal reports, is looking into Exxon’s practice of not writing down the value of its assets ― something other major U.S. energy companies have done in response to falling oil prices ― and how the company “calculates the impact to its business from the world’s mounting response to climate change.”
(Feds Investigating Oil-Qaeda). The East-Antarctica "it won't go the way of Greenland" vs the "yes it will" debate continues:
Strongly divergent interpretations developed of either long-term ice-sheet stability, or ice-sheet dynamism through the Pliocene based on analysis of sediments from the TAMs, yet none of the dozens of key papers included data that could be directly tied to EAIS conditions at sea level. The debate, widely referred to as the ‘stabilists’ versus the ‘dynamicists’, became defined by these end-member solutions, with little consideration of possible intermediate ice-sheet configurations. Furthermore, none of the dozens of key papers included explicit or adequate definitions of either a ‘stable’ or a ‘dynamic’ ice sheet.
(Nature: East Antarctica Melt). There are less civil ignorant rants going on all the time (Thuh 4Fathers Hate Dirty Hippy Environmentalists).

Three

The heat beat goes on too:
"The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for August 2016 was the highest for August in the 137-year period of record, marking the 16th consecutive month of record warmth for the globe."
(NOAA).

Dylan et al.



Monday, September 19, 2016

Will This Float Your Boat - 14


Orinoco Flow (Sail Away)
by Enya

Let me sail, let me sail,
let the orinoco flow,
Let me reach, let me beach
On the shores of Tripoli.
Let me sail, let me sail,
Let me crash upon your shore,
Let me reach, let me beach
Far beyond the Yellow Sea.

From Bissau to Palau - in the shade of Avalon,
From Fiji to Tiree and the Isles of Ebony,
From Peru to Cebu hear the power of Babylon,
From Bali to Cali - far beneath the Coral Sea.

From the North to the South,
Ebudc into Khartoum,
From the deep sea of Clouds
To the island of the moon,
Carry me on the waves
To the lands I've never been,
Carry me on the waves
To the lands I've never seen.

We can sail, we can sail...
We can steer, we can near
With Rob Dickins at the wheel,
We can sigh, say goodbye
Ross and his dependencies
We can sail, we can sail...

The previous post in this series is here.





Sunday, September 18, 2016

Will This Float Your Boat - 13

Fig. 1 WOD data
I. Background

It is about time to turn the page on the discussion about the thermal expansion hypothesis.

If I haven't made it clear enough by now, I doubt that I ever will.

I recently downloaded additional PSMSL data as well as WOD data which I have been using to debunk the mythical belief that "thermal expansion has caused MOST sea level rise now and in the past."

After today's post, it is probably time to close down the efforts in this and other posts about that myth.

During these efforts, I also updated some software modules so that the background data is described and understood a bit better (e.g. The Warming Science Commentariat - 9, GRAVITY: It's Wireless).

So, today let's revisit some East Coast WOD Zones and compare the ocean temperatures with the sea level changes, now that we once again have both PSMSL and WOD data available.
Fig. 2 PSMSL data

But, before we get into the recorded scientific history of what is happening in the ocean depths, kindly furnished to us by well meaning scientists, let's reflect on why this is important to know:
"Climate change is new and complex. We don't have all the answers. We are still learning how exactly the Earth reacts to increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases. We know it leads to warming seas which are melting the North and the South Poles, rising and starting to swallow entire coastal areas in the US and elsewhere, as the New York Times article documents. We know that the warming rising seas will swallow entire island nations that are about 25 percent of the UN vote and perhaps at the end, even our civilization. This realization is traumatic and the first reaction to trauma is denial. Since there is some remaining scientific uncertainty, a natural response is to deny that change is occurring. This is natural but it is very dangerous. Signs of a poorly understood but treatable house fire requires action, not inaction. While denial leads to certainty, it is only the certainty of death. This is true for individuals and also for civilizations."
(Global Warming and the Future of Humanity: An Interview With Noam Chomsky and Graciela Chichilnisky, 9/17/2016, emphasis added). Note that government was warned in 1988 but the response was denial (Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate, 1988) after Oil-Qaeda responded with anti-remedial propaganda campaigns (Smoke & Fumes).

II. What America's Most Trusted Source Says

For years it has been pointed out here on Dredd Blog that the military is the most trusted institution (Stockholm Syndrome on Steroids?, posted on 7/23/2010; Stockholm Syndrome on Steroids? - 2, posted on 11/7/2011).

And for that long or longer here on Dredd Blog, it has been pointed out that the military considers climate change to not only be real, but also that it is a national security threat (Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity, posted on 7/14/2009; Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity - 2, posted on 4/26/2016).

There are a lot more reasons why the science about climate change should be free from myths, and instead should be made robust with solid factual support for any hypothesis that is advanced.

III. Off The Coast of New York Town

Fig. 3 Eight WOD Zones
With that in mind, let's look at more WOD and PSMSL data that urges us to change the past erroneous rhetoric about thermal expansion.

The graphic labeled as Fig. 3 has a red outline of eight WOD zones that are along the U.S. East Coast.

The graphs at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 reveal what the measurements in those eight WOD Zones are telling us, which is the same thing that the measurements in zones all along the equator told us (thermal expansion is not a major factor in sea level rise and fall: GRAVITY: It's Wireless).

IV. Sea Level Data

The following data contain the WOD Zone list of zones outlined with a red line in Fig. 3.

There are also links to PSMSL tide gauge stations where the sea level records were made.

These data were used to produce the graphs in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 above:
Zone [7207] had [7] stations:

Stn# 1646, Stn# 1928, Stn# 563, Stn# 2288, Stn# 2021, Stn# 2287, Stn# 1934

Zone [7208] had [27] stations:

Stn# 2286, Stn# 2289, Stn# 1297, Stn# 1909, Stn# 690, Stn# 526, Stn# 2296, Stn# 1193, Stn# 1714, Stn# 199, Stn# 428, Stn# 1638, Stn# 520, Stn# 1106, Stn# 1107, Stn# 188, Stn# 1701, Stn# 1187, Stn# 1424, Stn# 363, Stn# 1717, Stn# 1696, Stn# 1669, Stn# 270, Stn# 1182, Stn# 1858, Stn# 2123

Zone [7209] had [15] stations:

Stn# 918, Stn# 1020, Stn# 497, Stn# 1038, Stn# 919, Stn# 922, Stn# 538, Stn# 725, Stn# 828, Stn# 161, Stn# 920, Stn# 1835, Stn# 440, Stn# 2297, Stn# 1903

Zone [7307] had [35] stations:

Stn# 234, Stn# 1721, Stn# 1651, Stn# 1720, Stn# 1444, Stn# 862, Stn# 1431, Stn# 2294, Stn# 396, Stn# 2295, Stn# 719, Stn# 1636, Stn# 945, Stn# 399, Stn# 462, Stn# 1635, Stn# 299, Stn# 597, Stn# 1295, Stn# 481, Stn# 360, Stn# 971, Stn# 412, Stn# 1203, Stn# 311, Stn# 148, Stn# 1338, Stn# 636, Stn# 1337, Stn# 224, Stn# 2292, Stn# 135, Stn# 786, Stn# 1153, Stn# 180

Zone [7405] had [5] stations:

Stn# 1044, Stn# 392, Stn# 2135, Stn# 1321, Stn# 393

Zone [7406] had [30] stations:

Stn# 195, Stn# 1230, Stn# 1158, Stn# 1259, Stn# 96, Stn# 1332, Stn# 1299, Stn# 1121, Stn# 2031, Stn# 427, Stn# 1330, Stn# 1143, Stn# 1326, Stn# 1309, Stn# 1138, Stn# 1349, Stn# 2069, Stn# 1358, Stn# 1213, Stn# 1199, Stn# 138, Stn# 1597, Stn# 1284, Stn# 1219, Stn# 1218, Stn# 1279, Stn# 525, Stn# 1524, Stn# 1081, Stn# 332

Zone [7407] had [35] stations:

Stn# 1223, Stn# 999, Stn# 173, Stn# 201, Stn# 137, Stn# 1798, Stn# 126, Stn# 1005, Stn# 144, Stn# 387, Stn# 951, Stn# 192, Stn# 1244, Stn# 1392, Stn# 1654, Stn# 366, Stn# 12, Stn# 1637, Stn# 519, Stn# 875, Stn# 848, Stn# 362, Stn# 856, Stn# 1068, Stn# 429, Stn# 430, Stn# 351, Stn# 776, Stn# 367, Stn# 1111, Stn# 775, Stn# 235, Stn# 288, Stn# 2291, Stn# 183

Zone [7505] had [3] stations:

Stn# 176, Stn# 1280, Stn# 1278


Total Stations: 157
V. Ocean Temperature Data

The other software module I wrote to use on the WOD data has analyzed those eight zones.

It generated a mean average temperature analysis which indicates:
WOD Zone: 7207 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 150 upward & 137 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.8281
200-400m = 5.7764
400-600m = 7.81588
600-800m = 8.31104
800-1000m = 2.26469
1000-3000m = -1.18839
>3000m = -14.9663

Net change for 7 levels: 8.84138
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)

Average change per year:
(8.84138 ÷ 48): 0.184195


WOD Zone: 7208 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 118 upward & 90 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.264
200-400m = 6.9159
400-600m = 4.43833
600-800m = 0.62627
800-1000m = -17.1734
1000-3000m = -8.54667

Net change for 6 levels: -13.4756
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-13.4756 ÷ 48): -0.280742


WOD Zone: 7209 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 88 upward & 90 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 1.093
200-400m = 0.6436
400-600m = -3.51186
600-800m = -20.3238
800-1000m = -0.77893
1000-3000m = -0.67542

Net change for 6 levels: -23.5534
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-23.5534 ÷ 48): -0.490695


WOD Zone: 7307 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 131 upward & 142 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -4.1155
200-400m = -0.9116
400-600m = -4.26595
600-800m = -3.00295
800-1000m = -11.8593
1000-3000m = -14.5611
>3000m = -12.8214

Net change for 7 levels: -51.5377
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-51.5377 ÷ 48): -1.0737


WOD Zone: 7405 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 30 upward & 27 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 4.59774
200-400m = -12.8842
400-600m = 0.20486
600-800m = 0.57798
800-1000m = 0.25222
1000-3000m = -0.00667
>3000m = -0.03499

Net change for 7 levels: -7.29303
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1982 -> 2016 (34 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-7.29303 ÷ 34): -0.214501


WOD Zone: 7406 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 21 upward & 23 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -8.75018
200-400m = 2.48753
400-600m = 0.95474
600-800m = -0.60689
800-1000m = -0.24387
1000-3000m = -0.2386
>3000m = -0.04415

Net change for 7 levels: -6.44142
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1975 -> 2016 (41 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-6.44142 ÷ 41): -0.157108


WOD Zone: 7407 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 37 upward & 29 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 7.484
200-400m = 5.56404
400-600m = 6.6664

Net change for 3 levels: 19.7144
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2015 (54 yrs)

Average change per year:
(19.7144 ÷ 54): 0.365082


WOD Zone: 7505 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 126 upward & 119 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.27443
200-400m = -0.55013
400-600m = 0.21086
600-800m = 0.17872
800-1000m = 0.18033
1000-3000m = 0.50581
>3000m = -23.3222

Net change for 7 levels: -20.5222
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-20.5222 ÷ 44): -0.466414

Zone mean averages of 8 WOD Zones
(temperatures are in deg. C)
=======

Concerning change trends, the average
was 87 upward & 82 downward trends.

Average changes per depth level were:

0-200m = 0.459449
200-400m = 0.880196
400-600m = 1.56416
600-800m = -1.77995
800-1000m = -3.41978
1000-3000m = -3.08888
>3000m = -6.39864

Average change, all 7 levels: -1.68335
-------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)

Average annual change per zone:
(-1.68335 ÷ 55):
-0.0306064 C per year

VI. Discussion

The combined result for all eight WOD zones was not an increase in ocean temperature when all depths in the vast ocean column of water are considered.

Instead, there was actually a net cooling of "-0.0306064 C per year" as graphed at Fig. 1.

Nevertheless, there was serious net sea level rise in these eight zones as graphed at Fig. 2.

VII. Conclusion

It is time to put the myth away and to focus on the serious implications of ice sheet melt and disintegration.

Now, I am going to write the new sea level projection software.

See you soon.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

01:30 Greenland melt is 60 years (six decades) ahead of what cryo-scientists previously thought it would be, and Antarctica is beginning to surprise in the same way (paraphrased).