Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Time's Up

Even 2 C of Warming is Highly Dangerous
I. Surges In Sea Level Change

It has been known for some time that instances of quick or sudden rises in sea level take place.

Recently a new study reaffirmed our understanding of the surge phenomenon with another discovery that sea level rise surges are part of the historical picture (Oceans Can Rise in Sudden Bursts).

Various Dredd Blog posts have pointed out that these surges have taken place recently, for example, the U.S. East Coast has experienced 'small' surges in recent years:
Coastal sea levels along continental margins often show significant year-to-year upward and downward fluctuations. These fluctuations are superimposed on a longer term upward trend associated with the rise in global mean sea level, with global mean sea level rising at roughly 3 mm per year during the recent 20 years of accurate satellite measures. For society, it is the regional changes along any particular coastal zone that are most important. Our analysis of multi-decadal tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise event during 2009–2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by up to 128 mm [5.05 inches]. This magnitude of inter-annual sea level rise is unprecedented in the tide gauge records, with statistical methods suggesting that it was a 1-in-850 year event.
However, meltwater pulse 1C (8,200-7,600 years ago) left traces at numerous locations in the United States, northwestern Europe, and China. It occurred soon after the 8200 year cold event, which resulted from the final catastrophic drainage of glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway around 8400 years ago. The torrent of around 100,000 cubic kilometers unleashed within a few years or less amounted to barely a meter rise in global sea level, if evenly spread across the world's oceans (note 1). Yet the stratigraphic record preserves vestiges of this relatively minor pulse.
(The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise). Recently, over a two year period (2009-2010), a 128 mm sea level rise took place @ the U.S. East Coast.

Further, a one meter sea level rise took place over a few years in the more distant past, so, it is not unsound to say that we can expect such surges at any time now (ibid).

Regular readers know that "a meter rise in global sea level, if evenly spread across the world's oceans" is a mythical event,

That is because, like the "2009–2010 ... two-year period [when]  sea level north of New York City jumped by up to 128 mm", these events do not happen as a global event.

That is because the ocean is not a bathtub that rises uniformly around the globe (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2, 3, 4).

The reality is that sea level rises more in some places than in others when glacial melt water flows into the oceans (Sea Level Fall: The Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise?).

II. What Does Global Warming Have To Do With It?

Scientists work hard to determine the future of our warming planet:
"The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0–4.9 °C, with median 3.2 °C and a 5% (1%) chance that it will be less than 2 °C (1.5 °C)."
(Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely). We haven't heard much about that potential ~5 degree C increase in global mean average temperature have we?

Projections showing 4.9 C by 2100
The Paris Accord hopes for a 1.5 degree C limitation.

The quoted paper indicates that there is a very low likelihood that such a low increase will be what happens.

To top it off, even a 2 degree C increase is not safe, rather, it is dangerous; thus, it is unlikely that our future is a safe one under current circumstances and attitudes of denial (New Study Says Even 2 Degrees of Warming 'Highly Dangerous').

What will this warming force on our world, in terms of impact on ice sheets and sea level change?

I think it is likely that we will see more surges like the one off the coast of New York as the atmosphere warms and 93% of that warming enters the oceans.

III. Conclusion

These realities are a threat to civilization itself:
"Eminent Australian scientist Professor Frank Fenner, who helped to wipe out smallpox, predicts humans will probably be extinct within 100 years, because of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change."
(Professor Fenner, emphasis added; see also: Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 10

NoClueElla Huckster
This is the episode about NoClueElla Huckster (The Huckster) in the Whut? House (the one who got there by the stealth of Moochifer during his historically short tenure as Vice Pornographer).

This very pressing secretary, like The Banner Who Stayed, demands that the preznit and his generals not be questioned by the fake press when any of them gives an order.

It is ok for gawd's press (full court press), to do so however, because they inhabit the land of the free toxins and the home of the brave grab.

You know, the tradition (Blind Willie McTell News, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) of dead man EPAing.

NoClueElla The Huckster is sent through meandering hallways to Duh Podium during excruciating nap times forced upon The Don by General Killy.

When The Preznit of The Don University is not policing the world with his delicious tweets, he must nap in order to make America great again.

Team Don
The Team America World Police (The Virgin MOMCOM - 8) have not declassified the meaning of all of this, because they have not yet completed their invasion (Will The Military Become The Police?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

They are making inroads, with the boisterous blasts of The Huckster who thereby casts trances upon the sycophants in the loyalist party.

Like The Don said during the camp pain revelations: "I could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and my constituency of graduates from The Don University would remain loyal."

That is why The Don, unlike Blind Willy O'Really?, is not mad at God yet (Bill O'Reilly Says He's 'Mad At God' For Not Giving Him More Protection).

The Don Emerges As The Huckster's Boss Hog
But The Don does already feel that way (mad at Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) about The Who Doo biz.

That is because Beauregard had no regard for the prime directive (protecting The Don) when he regurgitated himself from The Russia Thingy.

Which, like saving Puerto Rico, Houston, and Florida, makes it more difficult to bring world peace (the most beatific world peace in history or herstory) to Alabama before The Judge With The Little Pistol gets to the senate.

In the very mean time, The Don was being fully supported by The Huckster in his life and death word struggle with the pregnant widow of a soldier killed in MOMCOM's USAFRICOM jurisdiction.

That is a jurisdiction which no one in the Senate seems to have known about (How Many Troops Does the U.S. Have in Africa? Top Senators Didn't Know Military Was in Niger).

So, when The Huckster was at Duh Podium recently, she was asked about why the pressing corps and senators did not know about those troopy thingys, she replied "you have to ask nicely."

Meanwhile, NoClueElla has a mission to cork The Corker for The Don.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.