Friday, August 17, 2018

Build Your Own Sea Level Change Fingerprinting System - 3

Fig. 1 Ice Sheet Fingerprints
In this series we are analyzing "fingerprints" that identify the sources of sea level change.

In today's post let's take a look at WOD Zone 1110 and WOD Zone 1112, orienting ourselves by noting that Zone 1110 contains all or part of Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia, while Zone 1112 contains the Philippines.

For data quality purposes, as we did in the previous posts, we first note any aberrations in the data before and after correction (Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b).

On with the show.
Fig. 2 WOD Zones

On the graphic showing the sea level change impacts of Greenland and Antarctica (Fig. 1), the two zones are located in the upper right square.

The two zones are pointed to by two arrows at the lower left corner of that upper right square on each graphic (left side = Greenland; right side = Antarctica) on Fig. 1.

The Fig. 1 color graphic which originated in the paper, which I have mentioned previously in this series  (Tamisiea, M.E., and J.X. Mitrovica. 2011, Oceanography PDF), indicates that Greenland has the larger impact on Zone 1112 because as concerns Greenland impact (left hand side of Fig. 1) the Philippines are in a brown zone, which indicates the second highest sea level rise impact area.

On the other hand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are in Zone 1110, which is located in the yellow colored area on both the Greenland and Antarctica impact graphic maps, indicating a more even handed sea level change impact from the ice sheets.

Fig. 3a Zone 1110
Fig. 3b Zone 1110 Aberrant data
Thus, the fingerprint pattern in Zone 1110 (Fig. 3a) and Zone 1112 (Fig. 4) dovetail with that concept as displayed in Fig. 1.

That is because the Zone 1110 pattern or fingerprint (Fig. 3a) shows Greenland and Antarctica swapping places (higher, lower) from time to time.

In some years Greenland will have the most sea level change impact, but in other years Antarctica will.

In recent years it ends with them close to equal in terms of impact.

On the other hand Zone 1112 (Fig. 4) being in the second highest Greenland impact area (brown color, left side of Fig. 1) is impacted more by Greenland.

In recent years the Zone 1112 fingerprint pattern also shows more of a separation between Greenland influence and Antarctica influence, with Greenland winning out.

Fig. 4
I expect that to change as Antarctica contributes more and more to the equation due to its enormous size (Antarctica 2.0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 [& supplements A, B, C, D, E, F]).

We have now covered six of the ten zones featured in this series.

This might be a good time to review the video of Professor Mitrovica concerning the relocation and distribution patterns of ice sheet melt water around the globe (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

The previous post in this series is here.

Dr. Mitrovica video:

08:00 The use of global mean average has led us astray for 100 years.
15:20 Taking the average assumes the imaginary bathtub model.
16:30 It is completely wrong.
21:00 100m of SLF @ Greenland's coast when all ice sheet is gone.
26:40 The Dutch government did not understand the scenario.
28:40 When the ice sheet melts, all the water is distributed in 2 weeks.
29:30 It is error to say that SLF is due only to the land rising.

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories - 4

John Brennan, former CIA Director, calls President Trump's denials of any campaign conspiracy "Hogwash" (‘Hogwash’: John Brennan torches Trump).

Does that impact the ongoing trial in Virgina?

The record supports Brennan's assertion because Rick Gates, the lieutenant to Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, pleaded guilty to "Conspiracy Against The United States" (VOX, Chicago Tribune, Guardian).

The statute Gates pleaded guilty to reads:
If two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States, or to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.
(18 U.S. Code § 371, emphasis added). It would seem, then, that since all the charges in Virginia were dropped against Gates, the conspiracy charges cannot be brought against Manafort alone.

Does the Virginia jury begin deliberating today in order to render a verdict on the conspiracy counts, or have the conspiracy charges (against Manafort) already been dropped?

Or do they deliberate only on the multiple other counts (non-conspiracy) against Manafort?

Perhaps we must wait for the next Manafort trial, in the District of Columbia (where Gates pleaded guilty) for a conspiracy conviction against Manafort:
"Gates pleaded guilty last week to separate charges, filed against him in Washington DC, that he conspired against the US and lied to investigators over the course of their inquiry.

The Virginia charges were dropped against him as part of a plea agreement in which Gates is being shown leniency by prosecutors in exchange for his full cooperation."
(Guardian, emphasis added). If Manafort is the only one found guilty of conspiracy in the Virginia case, since the relevant statute requires "two or more" conspirators, it would seem that he may have a shot at having the conspiracy counts dismissed (if they haven't been dropped already).

That would mean that the District of Columbia case is the only place where the conspiracy charges can be coherently prosecuted against "two or more" (both Gates and Manafort).

The conspiracy charges in Virginia against Manafort have evidently not been dropped according to some reports.

Here are the relevant charges:
"Subscribing to false income tax returns

Number of counts: 5
Maximum prison sentence per count: 3 years
Failing to file foreign bank account reports

Number of counts: 4
Maximum prison sentence per count: 5 years
Bank fraud and bank fraud conspiracy

Number of counts: 4 counts of bank fraud;
5 counts of bank fraud conspiracy
Maximum prison sentence per count: 30 years"
(CNBC, emphasis added). How can those 5 conspiracy charges hold when only one person is being tried and the statute reads "each shall be fined under this title or imprisoned" (In the Virginia case Gates got no fine and no jail time ... no convictions ... all charges dropped) ?

The final shoe to drop will be the potential pardon or pardons.

Would Trump only pardon Manafort, for example in order to punish Gates for "snitching?"

We shall see.

The previous post in this series is here.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Build Your Own Sea Level Change Fingerprinting System - 2

Fig. 1 Origin of Graphic (PDF)
Today let's analyze WOD Zone 7307 and WOD Zone 7407.

And let's do that analysis in the same manner that we analyzed WOD Zone 1313 and WOD Zone 1314 in the previous post of this series (Build Your Own Sea Level Change Fingerprinting System).

We will use the graphic at Fig. 1 in the same manner that we did in the previous post (ibid).

Interestingly, the context is practically the same in the sense that there is a large red area which indicates a comparatively high sea level rise impact from West Antarctica, as there was in the previous post (ibid).

Fig. 2
Also interesting is that the ice sheet impact reverses, that is, West Antarctica is the main impactor in the zones analyzed in this post, whereas Greenland was the main impactor in the previous post (ibid).

One thing that makes it even more interesting is that WOD Zone 7307 and WOD Zone 7407 are closer to Greenland than the zones in the previous post were (especially Zone 7407).

Fig. 3a
Fig. 3b
Moving along, remember as was stated in the previous post, that the first step in the process is to weed out obviously bad data.

The graphs at Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b show that there was an aberration in the data of one of these two zones, as there was in the previous post, which we must correct first before we proceed.

The problem in Zone 7407 was corrected by removing the latest year (yr 2017) which had incorrect or incomplete tide gauge data.

So, on to the graphs.

The pattern in Zone 7307 (Fig. 2) is more uniform and proportional than Zone 7407 (Fig. 3a) to the south of it because the high and low value lines follow an almost synchronous upward trend pattern.

I attribute that to consistent, evenly matched Greenland and West Antarctica impact, with West Antarctica producing the high sea level effect (black line), and Greenland mitigating it fairly evenly as shown by the low sea level effect (red line).

If you notice the left side of Fig. 1, which pertains to Greenland, some of the sea level fall reaches near or even into Zone 7407, which can be attributed to the uneven impact shown by the low value line (red line) on the graph at Fig. 3a (the two lines move away from one another rather than following an even pattern like Zone 7307 lines do).

Nevertheless, the Zone 7407 high value line (black line)  continues upward as does the Zone 7307 black line, which can be attributed to West Antarctica impact on both of them.

That is because both zones are in the high impact sea level rise red zone shown on the right side of the Fig. 1 graphic.

The uneven decrease in the red line in Zone 7407, in contrast to the increase in the black line, is because Zone 7407 is closer to Greenland than Zone 7304 is.

Therefore Zone 7407 is more subject to impacts of sea level fall influences as Greenland loses its gravitational influence that pulls seawater towards it.

To the contrary, the consistent pattern in the red and black lines in Zone 7307 is due to its being further from Greenland, so the pattern has more of the likeness of the predominant West Antarctica impact.

Four zones done, six to go.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Build Your Own Sea Level Change Fingerprinting System

Fig. 1
My previous post was placed into an ongoing series here at Dredd Blog which concerns "fingerprints" of sea level change (SLC Fingerprints R Us - 3).

This new series, which today's post begins, is going to be about the analysis of the data presented in that post à la another Dredd Blog series (Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System, 2).

As I begin this series and this post, I have not come to any conclusions as to whether or not "fingerprints" of ice sheet melt can be detected from the analysis of all PSMSL station data within a collection of WOD Zones.
Fig. 2

The main reason I have no conclusion is that I have not analyzed the data yet, nor have I developed a process with which to analyze the zone data.

The analysis is going to be done post by post, as I write down the process I am going through in order to develop a reasonable conclusion.

It will hopefully become a process that can be used on other WOD Zone collections and by bloggers other than myself.

So, let's get started.

First, notice the graphic at Fig. 1 which is derived from a published paper (Tamisiea, M.E., and J.X. Mitrovica. 2011, Oceanography PDF).

That paper, presented in the peer reviewed Oceanography Magazine,  gives a comprehensive background as to why sea level does not change the same amount everywhere, contrary to the outdated "bathtub model" (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2, 3, 4, 5).

Fig. 3a Zone 1314 up to yr 2010
Fig. 3b Zone 1314 after Fukushima quake
It also discusses sea level change "fingerprints."

Anyway, I enhanced that graphic, which depicts probable sea level change fingerprints, so that we could see what might be expected at each zone, in terms of types and amounts of sea level change (i.e. rise or fall).

I did the enhancements by adding some latitude and longitude lines, and by adding some arrows that point to the locations of the collection of WOD Zones shown on Fig. 2 (the WOD Zone map with the zones outlined by red rectangles).

The left side of the graphic @ Fig. 1 is Greenland impact, and the right side is West Antarctica impact.

By comparing Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 with the graphs of the maximum and minimum sea level change in those zones, perhaps we can detect some "fingerprints."

The colors represent the impact that Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet melt water has at various places around the globe, after being relocated there by gravity and the force of the Earth's rotation.

Moving along, note that the first thing to do in the analysis process is to check for "radical departures" in the station data (compare Fig. 3a with Fig. 3b).

That we do by noticing any anomalies in the graphs.

One of the graphs (Fig. 3b, corrected version @ Fig. 3a) had anomalous data for the years following 2010 (March 2011 Tohoku (Fukushima) Earthquake related?).

The tide gauge stations may have been moved up and/or down during the subduction event that caused the quake at 38.3 degrees North latitude and 142.4 degrees East longitude (Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11, 12, 13, 14, 15).

The PSMSL says this about it:
"A massive earthquake magnitude 9.0 occurred at 14.46 JST (05.46 UTC) on Friday 11th March 2011 with the epicentre situated approx. 70km east of the Oshika Peninsula of Tohoku. It was the largest earthquake ever to strike Japan and triggered a tsunami with waves of up to 40.5m travelling inland up to 10km. From the data plot it can be seen that obviously the tide gauge was badly damaged. Data following the earthquake flagged."
(RE: Station #1346, emphasis added). Other tide gauge stations in WOD Zone 1314 were also flagged (see Zone 1314 data here).

Anyway, with as level a playing field as we can determine at this point, we can move on to compare Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 locations with the graphs in the post that contains the WOD and PSMSL data (SLC Fingerprints R Us - 3).

Before closing for today, let's analyze WOD Zone 1313 and WOD Zone 1314 (off the coast of Japan).

The high value for WOD Zone 1313 is 652.29 mm and the low value is -535.5 mm (652.29 - 535.5 = 116.79).

The high value for WOD Zone 1314 is 1090.95 mm and the low value is 181.71 mm (1090.95 − 181.71 = 909.24).

Notice that Zone 1314 is in the red spot in the graphic on the left side of Fig. 1 (indicating maximum impact from Greenland), while Zone 1313 is only in the orange color.

This fingerprint tells us that more Greenland melt water has relocated to Zone 1314 than Antarctica melt water has.

See if you can follow this analytical technique in the other graphs (I haven't done that yet).

The next post in this series is here.

Sunday, August 12, 2018

SLC Fingerprints R Us - 3

Fig. 1 The Ten WOD Zones
Anyone want to do some sleuthing to find a new way to detect where the ice sheets are having the most impact?

An idea came to mind that may or may not pan out.

I wrote a software module to detect the 20 WOD Zones with the largest sea level change values.

I culled it down to ten zones, after removing those that the PSMSL folks said had stations in them with data aberrations.

The graph at Fig. 1 shows the ten WOD Zones that resulted after analyzing the original twenty.

My intentions are to find patterns (a.k.a. "finger prints") that would give us indications as to which ice sheet (Greenland or Antarctica) is impacting these zones.

The original set of PSMSL stations that garnered the most favor in that light numbered only about 23 (Golden 23 Zones Revisited; SLC Fingerprints R Us, 2; Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 54).

Before I discuss possible avenues of inquiry to follow (in coming posts of this series) let's get familiar with the featured zones.

The following data (printed out by the software module I wrote) concerning the 10 WOD Zones and the PSMSL stations within them (click on the station number to go to the PSMSL website where there are more details about each station):

zone: 7307
4815.96 km from Greenland
8647.5 km from Antarctica

Fig. 2 Zone 7307
station: 135 (yrs: 118)
station: 148 (yrs: 116)
station: 180 (yrs: 104)
station: 224 (yrs: 79)
station: 234 (yrs: 97)
station: 299 (yrs: 91)
station: 311 (yrs: 88)
station: 360 (yrs: 87)
station: 396 (yrs: 83)
station: 399 (yrs: 53)
station: 412 (yrs: 81)
station: 462 (yrs: 27)
station: 481 (yrs: 10)
station: 597 (yrs: 53)
station: 636 (yrs: 67)
station: 719 (yrs: 10)
station: 786 (yrs: 33)
station: 862 (yrs: 16)
station: 945 (yrs: 12)
station: 971 (yrs: 13)
station: 1153 (yrs: 49)
station #1203 excluded [7 yrs]
station: 1295 (yrs: 47)
station: 1337 (yrs: 11)
station: 1338 (yrs: 10)
station: 1431 (yrs: 13)
station: 1444 (yrs: 35)
station: 1635 (yrs: 33)
station: 1636 (yrs: 33)
station #1651 excluded [9 yrs]
station #1720 excluded [4 yrs]
station #1721 excluded [4 yrs]
station: 2292 (yrs: 19)
station: 2294 (yrs: 26)
station: 2295 (yrs: 45)

zone: 1208
8242.4 km from Greenland
9504.89 km from Antarctica

Fig. 3 Zone 1208
station: 48 (yrs: 24)
station #49 excluded [6 yrs]
station: 369 (yrs: 77)
station: 417 (yrs: 50)
station: 543 (yrs: 65)
station: 1002 (yrs: 44)
station: 1161 (yrs: 43)
station: 1270 (yrs: 43)
station: 1369 (yrs: 33)
station: 1451 (yrs: 21)
station: 1454 (yrs: 24)

zone: 1314
7779.08 km from Greenland
13901 km from Antarctica

Fig. 4 Zone 1314 (corrected)
station: 131 (yrs: 58)
station: 463 (yrs: 26)
station: 635 (yrs: 67)
station: 674 (yrs: 10)
station #879 excluded [7 yrs]
station #1140 excluded [9 yrs]
station: 1149 (yrs: 49)
station: 1191 (yrs: 50)
station: 1345 (yrs: 45)
station: 1346 (yrs: 44)
station: 1364 (yrs: 44)
station: 1544 (yrs: 36)

zone: 7300
4815.96 km from Greenland
3926.77 km from Antarctica

Fig. 5 Zone 7300
station: 52 (yrs: 106)
station: 162 (yrs: 78)
station: 208 (yrs: 36)
station: 209 (yrs: 59)
station: 488 (yrs: 74)
station: 490 (yrs: 55)
station: 496 (yrs: 60)
station: 498 (yrs: 74)
station #506 excluded [6 yrs]
station: 960 (yrs: 38)
station: 981 (yrs: 45)
station: 985 (yrs: 57)
station: 1336 (yrs: 14)
station: 1425 (yrs: 21)
station: 1455 (yrs: 20)
station: 1456 (yrs: 13)
station: 1460 (yrs: 10)
station: 1809 (yrs: 25)
station: 1810 (yrs: 25)
station: 1813 (yrs: 23)
station: 1883 (yrs: 20)
station: 1940 (yrs: 12)
station: 2047 (yrs: 19)
station #2054 excluded [8 yrs]
station #2055 excluded [8 yrs]
station: 2056 (yrs: 11)
station #2057 excluded [9 yrs]
station: 2058 (yrs: 10)
station #2059 excluded [9 yrs]
station: 2117 (yrs: 12)

zone: 1313
7779.08 km from Greenland
13901 km from Antarctica

Fig. 6 Zone 1313
station: 94 (yrs: 90)
station: 130 (yrs: 87)
station: 132 (yrs: 87)
station: 133 (yrs: 87)
station: 134 (yrs: 61)
station: 359 (yrs: 85)
station: 407 (yrs: 74)
station: 461 (yrs: 12)
station: 627 (yrs: 28)
station: 663 (yrs: 31)
station: 669 (yrs: 17)
station #673 excluded [7 yrs]
station: 701 (yrs: 65)
station: 722 (yrs: 63)
station #749 excluded [8 yrs]
station: 752 (yrs: 61)
station: 753 (yrs: 63)
station #783 excluded [6 yrs]
station: 808 (yrs: 61)
station: 809 (yrs: 60)
station: 810 (yrs: 56)
station: 811 (yrs: 60)
station: 812 (yrs: 61)
station: 814 (yrs: 58)
station: 815 (yrs: 60)
station: 816 (yrs: 61)
station: 817 (yrs: 61)
station: 845 (yrs: 37)
station: 846 (yrs: 36)
station: 847 (yrs: 34)
station: 860 (yrs: 23)
station: 868 (yrs: 16)
station: 872 (yrs: 13)
station: 876 (yrs: 11)
station #880 excluded [7 yrs]
station #881 excluded [7 yrs]
station: 912 (yrs: 51)
station: 952 (yrs: 49)
station #1023 excluded [6 yrs]
station: 1026 (yrs: 55)
station: 1028 (yrs: 55)
station: 1060 (yrs: 54)
station: 1061 (yrs: 53)
station: 1062 (yrs: 54)
station: 1064 (yrs: 45)
station: 1089 (yrs: 53)
station: 1090 (yrs: 53)
station: 1091 (yrs: 53)
station: 1093 (yrs: 53)
station: 1094 (yrs: 53)
station: 1095 (yrs: 53)
station: 1096 (yrs: 53)
station: 1097 (yrs: 53)
station: 1098 (yrs: 53)
station: 1099 (yrs: 53)
station: 1102 (yrs: 53)
station #1142 excluded [5 yrs]
station: 1146 (yrs: 49)
station: 1148 (yrs: 52)
station: 1150 (yrs: 52)
station: 1184 (yrs: 14)
station: 1190 (yrs: 50)
station: 1209 (yrs: 50)
station: 1210 (yrs: 50)
station: 1212 (yrs: 50)
station: 1222 (yrs: 15)
station: 1263 (yrs: 48)
station: 1264 (yrs: 48)
station: 1265 (yrs: 48)
station: 1293 (yrs: 47)
station: 1306 (yrs: 21)
station: 1320 (yrs: 46)
station: 1343 (yrs: 44)
station: 1344 (yrs: 44)
station: 1386 (yrs: 43)
station: 1387 (yrs: 42)
station: 1389 (yrs: 43)
station: 1390 (yrs: 43)
station: 1437 (yrs: 36)
station: 1438 (yrs: 36)
station: 1440 (yrs: 37)
station: 1488 (yrs: 39)
station: 1490 (yrs: 39)
station: 1523 (yrs: 28)
station: 1545 (yrs: 36)
station: 1567 (yrs: 34)
station: 1585 (yrs: 34)
station: 1789 (yrs: 26)
station: 1790 (yrs: 26)
station: 1830 (yrs: 20)

zone: 7500
2679.94 km from Greenland
6133.4 km from Antarctica

Fig. 7 Zone 7500
station: 5 (yrs: 69)
station: 15 (yrs: 89)
station: 21 (yrs: 104)
station: 66 (yrs: 17)
station: 95 (yrs: 120)
station: 190 (yrs: 38)
station: 202 (yrs: 103)
station: 219 (yrs: 47)
station: 257 (yrs: 14)
station: 286 (yrs: 57)
station: 314 (yrs: 40)
station: 350 (yrs: 57)
station: 361 (yrs: 83)
station: 432 (yrs: 72)
station: 435 (yrs: 35)
station: 755 (yrs: 42)
station: 765 (yrs: 18)
station: 802 (yrs: 13)
station: 861 (yrs: 16)
station: 916 (yrs: 45)
station: 936 (yrs: 55)
station: 939 (yrs: 13)
station: 944 (yrs: 13)
station: 967 (yrs: 12)
station: 982 (yrs: 57)
station: 1074 (yrs: 30)
station: 1109 (yrs: 52)
station: 1112 (yrs: 37)
station: 1214 (yrs: 32)
station: 1215 (yrs: 44)
station: 1281 (yrs: 12)
station: 1491 (yrs: 29)
station: 1505 (yrs: 36)
station: 1526 (yrs: 28)
station: 1700 (yrs: 30)
station: 1731 (yrs: 28)
station: 1732 (yrs: 24)
station: 1758 (yrs: 27)
station: 1771 (yrs: 24)
station: 1772 (yrs: 21)
station: 1773 (yrs: 27)
station: 1774 (yrs: 27)
station: 1775 (yrs: 26)
station: 1793 (yrs: 18)
station: 1794 (yrs: 26)
station: 1832 (yrs: 25)
station: 1854 (yrs: 24)
station: 1856 (yrs: 23)
station: 1867 (yrs: 23)
station: 1878 (yrs: 18)
station #2011 excluded [9 yrs]
station #2278 excluded [9 yrs]
station #2279 excluded [7 yrs]
station #2280 excluded [6 yrs]
station #2281 excluded [7 yrs]
station #2282 excluded [7 yrs]
station #2283 excluded [5 yrs]
station #2284 excluded [5 yrs]
station #2285 excluded [3 yrs]

zone: 1112
9954.44 km from Greenland
11676.8 km from Antarctica

Fig. 8 Zone 1112
station: 145 (yrs: 102)
station: 394 (yrs: 73)
station: 522 (yrs: 70)
station #548 excluded [7 yrs]
station: 664 (yrs: 26)
station: 1705 (yrs: 20)
station: 1711 (yrs: 23)
station #2035 excluded [8 yrs]
station #2150 excluded [5 yrs]
station #2151 excluded [5 yrs]
station #2157 excluded [6 yrs]
station #2172 excluded [6 yrs]
station #2173 excluded [6 yrs]
station #2176 excluded [6 yrs]

zone: 7209
6353.11 km from Greenland
10512.5 km from Antarctica

Fig. 9 Zone 7209
station: 161 (yrs: 110)
station: 440 (yrs: 34)
station: 497 (yrs: 73)
station: 538 (yrs: 61)
station: 725 (yrs: 55)
station: 828 (yrs: 51)
station: 918 (yrs: 27)
station: 919 (yrs: 27)
station: 920 (yrs: 23)
station: 922 (yrs: 12)
station: 1020 (yrs: 18)
station: 1038 (yrs: 35)
station: 1835 (yrs: 22)
station: 1903 (yrs: 20)
station: 2297 (yrs: 12)

zone: 7407
3736.51 km from Greenland
8835.99 km from Antarctica

Fig. 10 Zone 7407
station: 12 (yrs: 147)
station: 126 (yrs: 111)
station: 137 (yrs: 47)
station: 144 (yrs: 105)
station: 173 (yrs: 85)
station: 183 (yrs: 106)
station: 192 (yrs: 100)
station: 201 (yrs: 102)
station: 235 (yrs: 97)
station: 288 (yrs: 55)
station: 351 (yrs: 88)
station: 362 (yrs: 70)
station: 366 (yrs: 86)
station: 367 (yrs: 85)
station: 387 (yrs: 61)
station: 429 (yrs: 80)
station: 430 (yrs: 72)
station: 519 (yrs: 70)
station: 775 (yrs: 23)
station: 776 (yrs: 22)
station: 848 (yrs: 34)
station: 856 (yrs: 25)
station: 875 (yrs: 12)
station: 951 (yrs: 56)
station: 999 (yrs: 55)
station: 1005 (yrs: 33)
station: 1068 (yrs: 54)
station: 1111 (yrs: 53)
station: 1223 (yrs: 12)
station: 1244 (yrs: 49)
station: 1392 (yrs: 38)
station: 1637 (yrs: 29)
station #1654 excluded [6 yrs]
station: 1798 (yrs: 25)
station: 2291 (yrs: 14)

zone: 1110
9720.54 km from Greenland
11618.7 km from Antarctica
Fig. 11 Zone 1110

station: 444 (yrs: 75)
station: 449 (yrs: 63)
station: 1003 (yrs: 49)
station: 1407 (yrs: 12)
station: 1449 (yrs: 37)
station: 1475 (yrs: 36)
station: 1495 (yrs: 35)
station: 2267 (yrs: 10)
station: 2268 (yrs: 10)

As you can see, some PSMSL stations were not used because they had less than ten years of records.

Now, let me tell you how the graphs were made.

Each station record for each month of each year was selected for lowest and highest sea level change.

The graphs show the amount of change in millimeters.

This makes a pattern.

Take that pattern and notice the distance to the two main ice sheets, and ponder those facts.

Remember that sea level falls around Greenland and Antarctica when the ice sheet melts and thereby loses some of its gravitational power and pull on the ocean around it (NASA Busts The Ghost).

By sea level fall I mean that the water that was once captured by gravity is released to be relocated elsewhere on the planet (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4).

Something tells me that we may be able to use these zones listed above in order to detect which ice sheets impact the low and the high values of sea level change within these zones (Proof of Concept, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

Professor Mitrovica (video below) and his team explained how to do so on the "golden 23" but the question is: "can we tell how ice sheet melt-water impacted these zones?"
UPDATE: I removed the incorrect distances that were on the graphs.

The distances in the station lists (to the left of each zone graph) are the correct distances.

Note that distances are calculated differently for Greenland and Antarctica.

Greenland distances are calculated from the center of the WOD Zone to the center of Greenland.

Antarctica distances are calculated from the center of the WOD Zone to the conjunction of latitude -90 (90S) and the longitude of the center of the WOD Zone (straight down to Antarctica from the zone's center).
The previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

How To Identify The Despotic Minority

DNA molecule
Let's start off with the main "DNA" marker of the despotic minority that the once-most-often-quoted historian (discussed later in this post) discovered:
"Ipsos poll shows almost a third of the American people agree that the news media is the enemy"
(Americans' Views on the Media). That is to say "almost a third of the American people" are despots.

That is another way of saying that they are enemies of the U.S. Constitution:
"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances."
(First Amendment, emphasis added). A despotic minority is an alien ideology within a free constitutional society.

Once that aspect of a culture becomes hooked up with "nationalism" and "militarism" that culture's "goose is cooked" as the saying goes:
History told us this was going to happen:
But always TCS is primarily the population segment diagnosed as a despotic minority which the once most-often-quoted historian, Toynbee, fingered as one of the members of the trinity of extinction that he found in all civilizations that were about to become very successful at becoming extinct:
That something is the dementia that produces and ends up in suicide:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."
(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). There is no cure for the final symptom of that group dementia, there is only prevention by way of avoiding it altogether in the first place.

The components of that group dementia were pointed out in an encyclopedia piece concerning that historian quoted above:
"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. Unlike Spengler in his The Decline of the West, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable, for it may or may not continue to respond to successive challenges. Unlike Karl Marx, he saw history as shaped by spiritual, not economic forces" ...
(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). The show stopper, in terms of remedy, in this type of group dementia is that it is a contagious dementia.
(Etiology of Social Dementia - 18). That particular "minority" is not a racial or ethnic minority, rather, it is primarily composed of a destructive suicidal trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
(Arrested Development: The Creep State). Our culture is composed, now, of the toxins of power that habitually destroy nations and civilizations (Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala - 2).
(When You Are Governed By Psychopaths - 8). Voting politicians out of office, because they cater to the despotic minority, is not enough.

As one blogger puts it:
'The Government Is Not Going to Save Us. WE Are Going to Save Us.'
(Brad Blog). It means staying alert and staying involved in dissolving the despotic minority a little at a time each and every day (support the Constitution).

The press needs to be criticized for its failings (Tools, Not Toys) but not destroyed in contravention of the Constitution.

We the people should also be criticized for our failings:
In the first post of this series, we pointed out that most Americans polled in an annual Gallup Poll think that the military is the most competent institution in America.

In that post we perused Gallup Poll figures from 2009, as shown on the graphic to the left (red lines added).

Today in 2011, the military is still seen as the most competent American institution, according to this year's Gallup Poll, even though the wars they are prosecuting are not at all popular.
(Stockholm Syndrome on Steroids? - 2). But the people should not be destroyed for those failings any more than the press should be.

But if our militarism and nationalism does not subside, then the despotic minority will expand and freedom will cease to exist, according to our forefathers:
Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes; and armies, and debts, and taxes are the known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. In war, too, the discretionary power of the Executive is extended; its influence in dealing out offices, honors, and emoluments is multiplied: and all the means of seducing the minds, are added to those of subduing the force, of the people. The same malignant aspect in republicanism may be traced in the inequality of fortunes, and the opportunities of fraud, growing out of a state of war, and in the degeneracy of manners and of morals, engendered by both. No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare. Those truths are well established.
(ibid, quoting James Madison). A nation that thinks that professional warriors, whose first order of business is war, is the most competent portion of a free government are just plain doomed in terms of staying a free people (Is War An Art or Is War A Disease?, 2, 3).

Watch the videos:

"The Military is the lead federal agency on climate change ... and that is ... extremely dangerous ... we may lose the republic ..." - Professor Wilkerson (ret. colonel)

Monday, August 6, 2018

Tools, Not Toys

How civilizations cease to exist
An irregular reader recently asked why Dredd Blog does not have a lot of readers, which reminded me of the time another reader asked why I bother, because, the reader intimated, "it [my posts] will not work."

The answer is I do "it" because it is the right thing to do, not because Dredd Blog is concerned with ratings as commercial news outlets must be in order to stay in business and pay the wages of their employees (In a Summer).

On the other hand, regular readers are not likely to ask why Dredd Blog uses the "TEOS-10" software library of Gibbs functions to analyze in situ ocean measurements stored in the World Ocean Database (WOD).

Not-so-regular and new readers, however, may wonder about that.

So today, since a new published paper has been recently released, I will once again explain the reasons.

A recently published paper states:
"In the terrestrial climate system, water is a key player in the form of its different ambient phases of ice, liquid and vapour, admixed with sea salt in the ocean and with dry air in the atmosphere. For proper balances of climatic energy and entropy fluxes in models and observations, a highly accurate, consistent and comprehensive thermodynamic standard framework is requisite in geophysics and climate research. The new Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater –2010 (TEOS-10) constitutes such a standard for properties of water in its various manifestations in the hydrological cycle. TEOS-10 was recommended internationally in 2009 by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) to replace the previous 1980 seawater standard, EOS-80, and in 2011 by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)“as the official description for the properties of seawater, of ice and of humid air."
(Thermodynamic properties of seawater... TEOS-10, emphasis added). So, since Dredd Blog focuses on the terrestrial (a.k.a. Earth) oceans as well as the impact of climate change on them, and since TEOS-10 is the best tool, that is why it is used here.

The lack of commercial pressures on Dredd Blog (no ads) makes it easier to bring non-commercial scoops to regular readers (Antarctica 2.0, 2, 3, 4, 5, [6 & supplements A, B, C, D, E, F]).

The few, the proud, the marine scientists.

Saturday, August 4, 2018

Gassifer 2.0: The Least Coast

Fig. 1 Sea level Rise @ U.S. East Coast
There are some exotic WOD Zones far away in distant lands, and there are some WOD Zones where millions of people live and work.

One of those zones has U.S. East Coast boundaries within its borders.

That zone is #7307 which today I feature along with its high sea level rise rate, a rate that is threatening some significant sea ports and coastal habitations that will impact millions of Americans.

Fig. 2 Thermosteric Sea level rise contribution
Some property value decline is futuristic loss (Coming crisis of coastal flooding: $1 trillion of real estate at risk by 2100).

But some of it has already happened and is currently happening in the Carolinas (Sea level rise has already sunk Carolinas beach property values — by $1.6 billion, study finds).

That is only two states.

Add the other states in WOD Zone 7307 to the loss and "we are talking money" as the porkiticians used to say about taxpayer dollars they were spending.

Read more here:

The graph at Fig. 1 shows the sea level change since the year 1900, and the graph at Fig. 2 shows the thermal expansion and contraction contribution for the year 2016.

The links below are PSMSL tide gauge stations which provided the data with which to generate the graph at Fig. 1 (the Dredd Blog PSMSL database was updated 23 Jul 2018).

The graph at Fig. 2 was generated from The World Ocean Database (WOD) CTD and PFL data using the TEOS-10 library software.

PHILADELPHIA (PIER 9N) [stn. #135, yrs of data: 118]
REEDY POINT [stn. #786, yrs of data: 33]
ATLANTIC CITY [stn. #180, yrs of data: 104]
BALTIMORE [stn. #148, yrs of data: 116]
ANNAPOLIS (NAVAL ACADEMY) [stn. #311, yrs of data: 88]
CAPE MAY [stn. #1153, yrs of data: 49]
MATAPEAKE [stn. #1338, yrs of data: 10]
WASHINGTON DC [stn. #360, yrs of data: 87]
LEWES (BREAKWATER HARBOR) [stn. #224, yrs of data: 79]
INDIAN RIVER INLET [stn. #1337, yrs of data: 11]
CAMBRIDGE [stn. #481, yrs of data: 10]
CAMBRIDGE II [stn. #1295, yrs of data: 47]
OCEAN CITY INLET [stn. #2292, yrs of data: 19]
SOLOMON'S ISLAND (BIOL. LAB.) [stn. #412, yrs of data: 81]
PINEY POINT [stn. #971, yrs of data: 13]
RICHMOND [stn. #462, yrs of data: 27]
GLOUCESTER POINT [stn. #597, yrs of data: 53]
KIPTOPEKE BEACH [stn. #636, yrs of data: 67]
CHESAPEAKE BAY BR. TUN. [stn. #1635, yrs of data: 33]
SEWELLS POINT [stn. #299, yrs of data: 91]
VIRGINIA BEACH [stn. #945, yrs of data: 12]
PORTSMOUTH (NORFOLK NAVY YARD) [stn. #399, yrs of data: 53]
DUCK PIER OUTSIDE [stn. #1636, yrs of data: 33]
CAPE HATTERAS [stn. #2294, yrs of data: 26]
BEAUFORT [stn. #2295, yrs of data: 45]
MOREHEAD CITY [stn. #719, yrs of data: 10]
WILMINGTON [stn. #396, yrs of data: 83]
SOUTHPORT [stn. #1431, yrs of data: 13]
MYRTLE BEACH [stn. #862, yrs of data: 16]
SPRINGMAID PIER [stn. #1444, yrs of data: 35]
CHARLESTON I [stn. #234, , yrs of data: 97]

The century-old work of Oil-Qaeda is coming home to roost roast (Humble Oil-Qaeda, 2).

These trade wars commenced by Oil-Qaeda are based upon trading CO2 for land along the coast (a.k.a. real estate).

Nature says "pump too much of that stuff into my air and I will trade you some land along the coast for it."

The nickname for it is "Make The East Coast the Least Coast Again."

For some reason, "asstute businesses" think this is a good deal, but really it is the art of the steal.

The extinction of far away vast areas, and areas of the nearer East Coast, is in the cards in this comic cosmic trade war:
"By the 2070s, total population exposed could grow more than threefold to around 150 million people due to the combined effects of climate change (sea-level rise and increased storminess), subsidence, population growth and urbanisation. The asset exposure could grow even more dramatically, reaching US $35,000 billion [35 Trillion or twice the US GDP] by the 2070s; more than ten times current levels and rising to roughly 9% of projected global GDP in this period. On a global-scale, for both types of exposure, population growth, socio-economic growth and urbanization are the most important drivers of the overall increase in exposure. Climate change and subsidence significantly exacerbate this effect although the relative importance of these factors varies by location. Exposure rises most rapidly in developing countries, as development moves increasingly into areas of high and rising flood risk."

[CAUTION: the most often occurring event in projecting temperature, CO2, and sea level rise is UNDERESTIMATION]
(Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes, cf. The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; The Extinction of Charleston, The Extinction of Philadelphia, The Extinction of Washington, D.C., The Extinction of Boston, The Extinction of Miami, The Extinction of Manzanillo, The Extinction of Houston, The Extinction of Providence, The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands).

There are no trump cards (not even denial).