|Fig. 1 World Ocean Database layers|
The major cause of sea level change, at the most basic level, is global warming induced climate change.
|Fig. 2 Layer Zero|
|Fig. 3 Layer One|
|Fig. 4 Layer Two|
|Fig. 5 Layer Three|
|Fig. 6 Layer Four|
That is, both feature Layer Zero - Sixteen (compare Fig. 1 with Fig. 1 On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 17).
|Fig. 7 Layer Five|
|Fig. 8 Layer Six|
|Fig. 9 Layer Seven|
|Fig. 10 Layer Eight|
II. Let Me Explain
|Fig. 11 Layer Nine|
|Fig. 12 Layer Ten|
|Fig. 13 Layer Eleven|
|Fig. 14 Layer Twelve|
|Fig. 15 Layer Thirteen|
This involves sine, cosine, tangent, etc. values relating to the latitude and longitude lines that make up the four sides of each zone.
|Fig. 16 Layer Fourteen|
|Fig. 17 Layer Fifteen|
|Fig. 18 Layer Sixteen|
Then, on top of all of that, there are zones where no WOD measurements have been recorded by researchers.
Thus, I had to have the actual number of valid zones per layer since I wanted to determine the volume of seawater per layer.
I wrote software to generate the following table:
The first number (bold) is the layer, the second is the quantity of "valid" zones in that layer (valid means that there are measurements of temperature, salinity, and depth taken in that zone then recorded in the WOD database).
It also turns out that the ocean depth at each zone was "beyond reach."
That is not a show stopper in the sense that I am generating graphs for the purpose of comparing temperature and salinity induced volume change patterns.
Those steric patterns are used to compare with the PSMSL tide gauge station patterns in the same WOD zones and layers.
So I use the general average ocean depth value (3,688.08 m) for each zone and layer rather than the value of the deepest measurement taken in each zone (still, more complications arose).
III. The Steric Volume Changes
The ocean volume changes as the seawater temperature & salinity change.
The same goes for the volume of zones and layers for that matter.
So, next I had to find and use formulas for that calculation.
The one I settled on is: V1 = V0(1 + β ΔT), where: V1 means new volume, V0 means original volume, β means temperature coefficient, and ΔT means change in temperature (T1 - T0), which is another way of "saying" dV = V0 β (t1 - t0), a formula in widespread use (Engineering Toolbox, cf here).
The volume of seawater in a layer is V0 which results in the new volume value V1 after the rest of that formula is applied.
Thus, we derive a pattern of seawater volume ups and downs which we can then compare to the SLC pattern of ups and downs.
IV. The Nitty Gritty
If the SLC and steric volume change patterns match, in the sense of synchronized ups and downs, then we can say there is a relation between thermal expansion and sea level change.
The degree of that synchronization of ups and downs indicates whether thermal expansion is or is not "the major factor in sea level rise in the 19th and 20th centuries" (the current dogma).
V. One More Thing
|Fig. 19 Thermal Coefficients|
The leftmost column shows the Salinity values and the columns to the right of it progress from one degree C value to the next.
The coefficient β is derived by selecting a Salinity value matched to a temperature value.
The ΔT is derived by subtracting the current year's temperature from the previous year's temperature to derive the change in temperature, which is then multiplied by the β value, and finally 1 is added to it.
The result is the thermal coefficient by which the layer volume V0 is multiplied to derive the value of V1.
The change in that layer's volume for that year is then derived by: V1 - V0.
So, look at the graphs for yourself to determine your take on this matter, remembering that "The steric component only represents actual volume changes when the mass of the considered water body remains constant" (Steric & Mass Components of Sea Level Variablilty, PDF).
(Think of mass as how many molecules of seawater there are in a layer or zone, and think of volume as how far apart from one another those molecules are at a given temperature and salinity.)
Anyway, this is a pattern observing operation today, so compare pane four (lower right pane) patterns with the SLC patterns (pane one, upper left) and see if the thermal expansion dogma needs to be tossed.
Does it need to be replaced with "Greenland, Antarctica, and other land based glacial melt and disintegration is the major cause of sea level rise in the 19th and 20th centuries" ???
UPDATE: The graphs at Fig. 4-18 were updated.
The previous post in this series is here.