The Risk & Insurance Management Society (RIMS) had its annual conference this week in San Diego, CA. (hat tip to Walter, who commented @ The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 4).
The RIMS people are professionals who are in the business of risk management, which now keeps a close eye on climate change dynamics (You Are Here - 5).
"That revelation was made by an official with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] on Tuesday at the annual RIMS conference for risk management and insurance professionals in San Diego, Calif. The conference is being attended by more than 10,000 people, according to organizers. It was day No. 3 of the conference, which ends Wednesday. Margaret Davidson, NOAA’s senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services, and Michael Angelina, executive director of the Academy of Risk Management and Insurance, offered their take on climate change data in a conference session titled “Environmental Intelligence: Quantifying the Risks of Climate Change.” Davidson said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters or 9 feet by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than current projections. Until now most projections have warned of seal level rise of up to 4 feet by 2100. These new findings will likely be released in the latest sets of reports on climate change due out in the next few years. “The latest field data out of West Antarctic is kind of an OMG thing,” she said."
The Hansen et al. paper indicated a similar scenario to the NOAA revelation:
I mentioned the Hansen et al. paper on Wednesday, not having read it then, but I kept that post limited to "sea levels rising as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years," and "sea level rise is the big impact of human made climate change"
The NIWA reported a calving event from the Nansen Ice Shelf on April 11, 2016. They are concerned about a mooring in Terra Nova Bay in front of the ice shelves. The area of the Nansen Ice Shelf is 1500 square kilometers, these icebergs have a combined estimate of approximately 250 square kilometers. This is a substantial calving event for such a small system.
The word is getting around about the greatest crime in human history:
When do we hold someone responsible for a harm? What if the harm is climate change?
In determining responsibility for a harm, courts are likely to ask: Did they have the capacity to foresee the harm? And, did they have the opportunity to avoid or reduce it? For example, by warning others.
Growing public evidence demonstrates that Exxon and other oil companies understood climate risks by the 1980s, yet spent millions to sow uncertainty and misinformation about climate science.
The documents that follow—industry histories, scientific articles, oral testimonies, patents—span more than half a century of industry research and industry action. They offer compelling evidence that oil executives were actively debating climate science in the 1950s, and were explicitly warned about climate risks a decade later. Just as importantly, they offer glimpses into why the industry undertook this research, and how it used the results to sow scientific uncertainty and public skepticism.
(Smoke & Fumes). The documents are compelling evidence that a mass murder us under way/
You, your friends, children, grandchildren, relatives, fellow citizens, and mine, are all victims of an ongoing murder-suicide conspiracy.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
"Acceleration" is difficult to grasp, but one's understanding of acceleration can be substantially improved by headlines like this: "Greenland sees record-smashing early ice sheet melt" (Guardian).
I say that because "record smashing" is another way of saying "accelerating."
II. "Today's Acceleration" Will Always Startle The BAU Crowd
Fig. 3
"Unbelievable" is one word that appears in written exclamations that both precede as well as follow events outside our social trance that is generally called "the comfort zone" (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
"Belief" has nothing to do with whether or not catastrophe is headed our way because of global warming, because "catastrophic" is just another way of expressing degree of climate change brought about by burning fossil fuels.
Likewise, "surprise", such as the following, is just another way of saying "we were unaware":
The Arctic is wild (12% of Greenland under melt conditions a month early yesterday) and the odd readings about sea ice extent are seen as a satellite
Fig. 4
malfunction induced by an unexpected Arctic scenario ("worse than previously thought").
"NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images.." (NSIDC)
"Warm, wet conditions rapidly kicked off the melt season this weekend, more than a month-and-a-half ahead of schedule. It has easily set a record for earliest melt season onset, and marks the first time it’s begun in April." (Greenland’s Melt Season Started Nearly Two Months Early)
(The 1.14% vs. The 100%, Updated). The most important aspect of this situation is the acceleration of sea level change (ibid).
Dirty oil and other polluting sources are actually the deathblood, but it nevertheless flows through the veins of current civilization, but fossil fuel use never has and never will bring anything but death and destruction.
The reality is that current civilization's cardiovascular system (seaports and sea lanes) is the dynamic to watch, and to watch very closely:
"By volume, more than 95 percent of U.S. international trade moves through the nation's ports and harbors, with about 50 percent of these goods being hazardous materials."
Anyway, the twenty largest seaports (and many, many others) are in a relatively small number of "zones" (see Section VI below) as shown here:
Fig. 9 Zone "Quadrants" and "Sub-quadrants"
AJ (#11, #15, #16) AL (#1, #5, #7, #12) AQ (#2, #3, #4, #8, #13, #17, #19) AR (#6, #14) AP (#9) AK (#10)
Regular readers know that "zones, quadrants, and sub-quadrants" are words in the Dredd Blog language for latitude and longitude bounded areas of the globe.
See Fig. 8 for global "zones", and see Fig. 9 for zone (red square) components which are "quadrants" (4 circles at the middle of 4 squares) and "sub-quadrants" (4 ovals in smaller squares).
Each zone, for focusing on sea level change, has 16 smaller areas denominated as "AA.NE.SW".
In that example, AA=zone, NE=quadrant, and SW=sub-quadrant.
"In 1968, a pair of scientists from Stanford Research Institute wrote a report for the American Petroleum Institute, a trade association for America’s oil and natural gas industry. They warned that “man is now engaged in a vast geophysical experiment with his environment, the earth” — one that “may be the cause of serious world-wide environmental changes.”
The scientists went on: “If the Earth’s temperature increases significantly, a number of events might be expected to occur including the melting of the Antarctic ice cap, a rise in sea levels, warming of the oceans and an increase in photosynthesis.”
There are lots of posts on Dredd Blog that deal with the subject of sea ports (e.g. go to the Series Posts Tab page, then scroll down or search for "sea ports" for a glimpse.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
Have you wondered why the police in the cities of America are now, and have in the past been supplied with military equipment (Will The Military Become The Police?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) ?
One hypothesis is that totalitarianism is a lot cheaper than a bazillion spies who are difficult to keep track of:
* Some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States.
* An estimated 854,000 people, nearly 1.5 times as many people as live in Washington, D.C., hold top-secret security clearances.
Today's post is about the failure to warn others when they are endangered.
Failure on a massive scale.
Let's take a peek at a warning from an American who began to warn us almost three decades ago (1988) and who is still warning us even though he is sometimes maligned for doing his duty.
These words from the video at the end of this post is not scaremongering rhetoric, rather, it is as real as it gets:
"Consequences include sea level rise of several meters, which we estimate would occur this century or at latest next century, if fossil fuel emissions continue at a high level. That would mean loss of all coastal cities, most of the world’s large cities and all their history ... superstorms will not be the most important consequence of global warming, if it continues to grow. The most important effect will be sea level rise."
(Hansen transcript, of video below @01:40, emphasis added). This is not Dredd Blog fearmongering rhetoric, it is the consensus of scientists.
Large cities are not unique to any civilization down through history, so our cities do not make us unique.
What makes us unique as a world civilization is our seaports, our seaport cities, and our reliance on seaports as the basis or foundation of a civilization based on international sea trade (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 3).
A civilization that is endangered by only "a tiny, tiny fraction" of the ice sheets that have melted so far:
"Greenland and Antarctica are beginning to melt because of global warming. So far it is just a tiny, tiny fraction of the ice sheets that has melted. However, this fresh meltwater spilling out onto the North Atlantic and into the Southern Ocean already is having important effects."
(ibid, Hansen Transcript/video). Regular readers know that Dredd Blog has calculated the percentage of melt that will begin to destabilize international sea trade:
The delicacy of the issue can be seen ... by realizing that only 1.14% of the global ice volume needs to melt to get us there ... The overall invader needs to use only 1.14% of its forces to accomplish the invasion.
For example, to a person officially or unofficially on watch:
"A duty to warn is a concept that arises in the law of torts in a number of circumstances, indicating that a party will be held liable for injuries caused to another, where the party had the opportunity to warn the other of a hazard and failed to do so."
(Duty to Warn). When the deliberate failure to warn is very severe, such as severe enough to cause the death of an endangered person, it becomes a crime not to warn and take action:
"In United States law, depraved-heart murder, also known as depraved-indifference murder, is an action where a defendant acts with a "depraved indifference" to human life and where such act results in a death. In a depraved-heart murder a defendant commits an act even though they know their act runs an unusually high risk of causing death or serious bodily harm to someone else.If the risk of death or bodily harm is great enough, ignoring it demonstrates a "depraved indifference" to human life and the resulting death is considered to have been committed with malice aforethought. In most states, depraved-heart killings constitute second-degree murder."
III. If We Are Not Warning We Are Dying Piece By Piece
Another lawless practice of the media, the establishment's deceit corps, is to call those who warm "alarmists" as you well know.
The work of those who ALARM!, if necessary to save lives, will one day render them heroes in the history books:
LOUDER THAN WORDS
(by Todd Henry)
"When people don’t express themselves, they die one piece at a time.—Laurie Halse Anderson, Speak
Your work tells tales. It speaks about you, your values, your hopes, your ambitions, and ultimately what you deem worthy of your energy and attention. It reveals, intentionally or not, what you really think about the world around you. Ultimately, your body of work—which is any place you create value, whether through your job, your relationships, or any other way you spend your time and energy—is a standing testament to your existence on this speck of rock orbiting the sun.
Here’s a question worth pondering: While your work speaks about you, does it really speak for you? Does it represent you well? Does it reflect the authentic you? (Or, in your busyness, have you even recently considered who the authentic you might be?) The key to making your work resonate is to uncover, develop, and then bravely use your authentic voice. What does this mean? When you are pouring yourself into your work and bringing your unique perspective and skills to the table, then you are adding value that only you are capable of contributing. However, many people operate in “default mode,” and they ignore their hunches, their deeper intuition, and their unique vision, and instead settle into the fold. Over time, they become more of a reflection of everyone around them—or a faded photocopy of a photocopy—than an original source of ideas, energy, and life. Instead of doing the difficult work necessary to weave their influences together into something fresh and original, they settle for recycling the scraps in exchange for a quick return on their effort. In the end, they fall short of making a unique contribution that’s reflective of what they truly care about, and because of a lack of individuality and passion, their work is less likely to resonate with their audience. However, brilliant contributors commit to the process of developing an authentic voice through trial and error, by paying attention to how they respond to the work of peers, heroes, and even their antagonists, by playing with ideas, by cultivating a sharp vision for their work, and ultimately by honing their skills so that they have the ability to bring that vision to the world. If you examine the most contributive, impactful, and ultimately influential people throughout history, the one thing that clearly sets them apart is their unique voice. They had developed a personal expression that distanced them from their peers and put them in a field of their own. Their body of work speaks loudly about who they are and what they value. Louder, even, than their words."
The Arctic is wild (12% of Greenland under melt conditions a month early yesterday) and the odd readings about sea ice extent are seen as a satellite malfunction induced by an unexpected Arctic scenario ("worse than previously thought").
"NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images.." (NSIDC)
"Warm, wet conditions rapidly kicked off the melt season this weekend, more than a month-and-a-half ahead of schedule. It has easily set a record for earliest melt season onset, and marks the first time it’s begun in April." (Greenland’s Melt Season Started Nearly Two Months Early)
The next post in this series is here.
A law abiding citizen, Dr. Hansen, warns via video:
