Saturday, December 5, 2015

Databases Galore - 12

Fig. 1 @ over 1,000m (3,281 ft) deep
The GISS data on Antarctica was sparse like much of the data from that hostile region.

There aren't even any PSMSL tide gauge stations there.

I finally was able to use the data for all zones combined.

So the graphs (Fig. 1 - Fig. 4) are old in the sense that they only go up to a decade ago, or less.

The big take away is that the sub-surface ocean water, during the times covered, gets above freezing.

The glaciologists I quote here on Dredd Blog indicate that the sub-surface ice will melt when the water temperature touching it is at or near 0 deg. C, (32 deg. F).
Fig. 2 0m to 100m (328 ft)

Fig. 3 100m (328 ft) to 500m (1,640 ft)
More recent data will have to be used to fill in the gap from the time the GISS data ends (~2006) until the present.

That data will have to be the ARGO and AMA data (ARGO Southern Ocean, Antarctic Ocean, AMA same).
Fig. 4 500m (1,640 ft) to 1000m (3,281 ft)

So, I am looking at that data again, although I do not like the "netcdf" data format they use.

Mainly because last time I checked, the library tools for extracting it were kept too close to their vests (perhaps they have a commercial streak in them).

Anyway, I am checking out the status of those sources again, because it has been a year or so since I took a look at ARGO.

The main problem, however, is that the ARGO robotic buoys are quite far away from the coast (Buoy/Float Map).

The closest ARGO float to the ice shelf seems to be the 1901251 Argo Profiling Float operated by Britain.

Fig. 5 (Zones bq,br,bm,bn,bo,bq)

Fig. 6  (Zones bq,br,bm,bn,bo,bq)
UPDATE: The ARGO system is still inadequate, because the floats are too far away from Antarctica.

So, I took another look at the same GISS database I have been using.

I limited the inquiry to ocean temperatures above 0 deg. C (32 deg. F).

Any water temperature above 0 deg. C (32 deg. F) will tend to cause ice shelves and ice sheets to melt when and where that water contacts the ice.

I made two graphs to help visualize what has been going on down there under the Southern Ocean (a.k.a. Antarctic Ocean).

The graph @ Fig. 5 shows ocean temperatures from 0C (32 F) to 2.4C (36.32 F) at depths from 0m (surface) to 800m (2,625 ft) deep.

Note that the warmest water is at about the 400m (1,300 ft) depth (Fig. 5).

The graph @ Fig. 6 shows the high water temperature, at all depths, for each year from 1964 to 2006.

What these graphs show, then, is that water warm enough to melt subsurface ice has been around and under the surface of the Antarctic ocean for a long time.

To fill in the gap from 2006 to the most recent events, one can read some scientific papers published on the subject.

Papers which indicate that warmer water at about the 400m subsurface mark (as in Fig. 5) is still melting ice sheets and ice shelves in Antarctica:
"Warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water, which has been linked to glacier retreat in West Antarctica, has been observed in summer and winter on the nearby continental shelf beneath 400 to 500 m of cool Antarctic Surface Water" [in E. Antarctica too].
(Nature). Thus, we can conclude that the beat goes on (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 3).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

"They Must Be Turrists Cause They Went To Sauder Arbia, Clem"

The San Bernardino mass murders have a link to Saudi Arabia?

I heard it on the news today, oh Boy.

Perhaps it was a trip to the Hajj:
The U.S. Department of State wishes to inform any U.S. citizens who may be considering travel to Saudi Arabia for the Hajj (approximately September 21 – 26, 2015) and ongoing Umrah, of Saudi government health recommendations concerning the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (MERS CoV) in the country. The Saudi government recommends that pilgrims who have “chronic diseases such as heart, kidney, and respiratory diseases, not to forget diabetes, as well as patients with congenital and acquired immune deficiency, in addition to patients suffering from tumors, and pregnant women and children” postpone plans to participate in the pilgrimage this year. These recommendations were made by the Saudi government “to maintain the public health and ensure a safe and healthy atmosphere.” The full text of the statement may be found on the Saudi Ministry of Health website. Interested parties should review the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website for additional information about the MERS CoV outbreak.
(Hajj Fact Sheet). Watch out for stampedes too.

Because tourism is evidently a lack luster thingy there:
There are no tourism visas for Saudi Arabia, a fact made all the more frustrating for would-be visitors enchanted by the tantalizing glimpses of the country’s fantastical archaeological record found in the Roads of Arabia exhibit currently traveling between a series of U.S. and European museums. “We have so much to show the world,” laments the de Tinguys’ guide, Abdulaziz. “From the outside, I think, Saudi Arabia doesn’t look like such a nice place. But once you are here, you fall in love. If more people could visit, they would better understand our country and our traditions.”
(Time). Sans deterrent.

You need to be an ex-patriot perhaps:
The expatriate community in Saudi Arabia is made up of citizens from around the world: Americans, Canadians, Australians, British, German, Irish, Egyptians, Indians, Pakistanis, Sri Lankans, Bangladeshis, Filipinos, Malaysians, South Africans, etc. In total, the expat population in Saudi Arabia is approximately 5.7 million individuals.
(Frequently Asked Questions - Saudi Arabia). I am not a patriots fan.

Oh those doctored turrists:
If a Jumbo Jet crashed and killed 280 people everyday ... 365 days a year ... year after year ... would you be concerned about flying??

Would you question the Federal Aviation Administration? Would you demand answers??

Think about it! ...Sounds Ridiculous??!! ... people maimed and disabled every year ... year after year from modern medicine ... would you believe it??

Well these may be my words ... but read the following articles from the most respected medical journals and institutions (Journal of the American Medical Association, Harvard University, Centers for Disease Control, British medical journal The Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine and national news (New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, US World Report) and you be the judge ... the more frightening number is that doctors are the third leading cause of death in this country, killing nearly a quarter million people a year.
(Obola: Art Thou Dying Properly?). I feel faintly faint.

Religious stampedes kill more people than terrorists do in Da Saudi Kingdom:
The crush and stampede that struck the hajj last month in Saudi Arabia killed at least 2,177 pilgrims, a new Associated Press tally showed Monday, after officials in the kingdom met to discuss the tragedy
(Stampede At Hajj In Saudi Arabia Reportedly Killed At Least 2,177).

Are you skeert?

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Databases Galore - 11

Fig. 1 The zones are back
The scientists I deal with in Dredd Blog posts have indicated that it is time to watch the ice shelves: "as goes the ice shelf so goes the ice stream flow in the ice sheet" (Watch The Ice Shelves).

In addition to that, they tell me that in order to watch the ice shelves, one has to watch the water flow underneath them, because in the main they are melting from below.

That means watching the water temperatures down fairly deep.

So, I found a database that has subsurface water temperature records.

Notice the following comment:
NB: While you are perfectly at liberty to download the whole database for your own research, please make a note of the version and note that corrections, additions, and re-calibrations are all on-going. Much of the data was typed in by hand, and so many errors probably remain.

The whole database can be downloaded from this link (3MB). The format is fixed width:


with longitude, latitude, month, year, depth (m), temperature (C), salinity (psu), d18O, dD, notes, reference.
(GISS data site). Ok, so I downloaded it, configured it for an SQL database, and placed 25,514 records in the database table.

I also resurrected the old Zone code, because this is a good place to use zones since their data is latitude / longitude specific as you can see by the column / field names: "longitude, latitude, month, year, depth (m), temperature (C), salinity (psu), d18O, dD, notes, reference".

They don't give a reference to a country, island, ice sheet, etc. in the data, so I wrote a module and ran through it.

I am marking each record with a zone designation (Fig. 1, cf. New Type of SLC Detection Model - 2).

The sea level change (SLC) business did not fit well with those 36 zones, but this subsurface temperature database will.

I have already identified from this GISS data that it contains places where there are no PSMSL tide gauge stations.

So far, I have noticed that some of them are located at or near Antarctica coastal areas (zones bk - bp), where it would be important to know the subsurface water temperature over time.

I wrote a module to scan the data to determine records for each zone area:
zone [0, aa] = 2358
zone [1, ab] = 3022
zone [2, ac] = 1333
zone [3, ad] = 1857
zone [4, ae] = 2016
zone [5, af] = 1404
zone [6, ag] = 875
zone [7, ah] = 1749
zone [8, ai] = 1
zone [9, aj] = 1448
zone [10, ak] = 161
zone [11, al] = 649
zone [12, am] = 643
zone [13, an] = 43
zone [14, ao] = 399
zone [15, ap] = 276
zone [16, aq] = 132
zone [17, ar] = 474
zone [18, ba] = 120
zone [19, bb] = 198
zone [20, bc] = 58
zone [21, bd] = 18
zone [22, be] = 45
zone [23, bf] = 81
zone [24, bg] = 459
zone [25, bh] = 1069
zone [26, bi] = 268
zone [27, bj] = 26
zone [28, bk] = 103
zone [29, bl] = 28
*zone [30, bm] = 1807
*zone [31, bn] = 363
*zone [32, bo] = 260
*zone [33, bp] = 588
*zone [34, bq] = 1
*zone [35, br] = 334

* = Antarctica

not found = 0
found = 24666
There are 25,514 total rows, 848 rows had years with a zero value, so only 24,666 were usable to begin with.

We can learn about temperatures at useful depths, since the readings go deep (>1000 m).

This may be especially useful for knowing the temperature of water that flows underneath the ice shelves driven by various currents.

So, I will be perfecting that system and reporting about it once I have a complete handle on it.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

A discussion about ice shelves vs. ice sheets:

15:29 when the ice shelf "Larsen A" collapsed the entire glacier's flow speed toward the sea increased ...
18:50 "Larsen B" ice shelf collapse caused the same thing ... the entire glacier's flow accelerated toward the sea ...
19:30 when the ice shelf goes away so does the restraint on the glacier, and they then move faster, 8 times faster, toward the sea
27:15 the East Antarctica Totten Glacier basin contains about as much ice as all of Western Antarctica, and it is destabilizing
30:30 the condition of the ice shelf controls what happens to the ice sheet


(Pope Rap)
by Dredd & GiGi

Call a cosmic robosome
a dizzying molecular machine,
like life's ribosome.

Call the flower maker
in the fires of excitement

Call the Sky Factories
abiotic extraordinaire;
assembling stars and planets.

In the view of telescopes
we ride
without gravity.

Circles and orbits,
globes and rings,
again once again,

Love encircles,
to drown the despair;
wow again!

Simple to complex,
little to big to little;
darkness to breathtaking,

with sounds like heartstrings
that make us tremble,
bass notes and all.

Assembling likeness
with forces, plasmas and quanta,
until the third one charms.

Call a cosmic robozyme
a web
in a space
in infinity,
like life's ribozyme.

Call it ancient,
modern, young,
new or old,
it is still the same.

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Blast From The Past (December 1)

(Tuesday, December 1, 2009)

Everyone is talking about Dubai in the context of "commercial real estate failure".

This talk is also in the sense of whether Dubai's financial failures will or will not effect our commercial real estate here in the United States.

Those in the know are already aware that commercial real estate, like residential real estate, is practically a catastrophe here already. But not much talk about their policy that supports slavery:
Dubai is finally financially bankrupt – but it has been morally bankrupt all along. The idea that Dubai is an oasis of freedom on the Arabian peninsular is one of the great lies of our time.

Yes, it has Starbucks and Dunkin' Donuts and the Gucci styles, but beneath these accoutrements, there is a dictatorship built by slaves.
(Independent, emphasis added). There is a rush to feed the public as much pabulum as possible so as to hide the realities which are unfitting for a denial society. Sorry folks, if you blog here you have to take your medicine, because that is what the doctor ordered.

Dubai practices slavery, Cheney's Haliburton moved there, it gets TARP bailout money, and the treasury will not tell us how much other money went there or to other foreign nations.

I mean "the most expensive public works legislation in US history" never found its way to Republican districts in the U.S., so how many "world's tallest building", "world's largest airport", etc. for Dubai, has to be built first before they spend some of the American taxpayer's money on Americans?

I guess, then, that "we" will have to wait for the final report as to how much "we" support slavery with our hard earned tax dollars.

(Wednesday, December 1, 2010)

At first blush in a time of discontent concerning government in general, it may seem like a win win to stop raising the salaries of federal government civil servants, who earn more than their counter parts in the private sector.

But it becomes clear that more is needed than angry bias when it comes to messing with anyone's livelihood, including federal employees, when we consider that the average of $61,051 and $123,049 is $92,050.

So if we spout off about $92,050 it makes folks getting $61,051 look a bit more well oiled than they are, and it makes those getting $123,049 less well off than they actually are.

So, why not just do a pro rata freeze on the pay increases of those taking home more than the national median income, and leave those below the national median alone?

They are members of the middle class after all:
At a time when workers' pay and benefits have stagnated, federal employees' average compensation has grown to more than double what private sector workers earn, a USA TODAY analysis finds.

Federal workers have been awarded bigger average pay and benefit increases than private employees for nine years in a row. The compensation gap between federal and private workers has doubled in the past decade.

Federal civil servants earned average pay and benefits of $123,049 in 2009 while private workers made $61,051 in total compensation, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data are the latest available.
(USA Today). Those collecting Social Security Insurance, who are primarily those below the median income level, have already had their benefits frozen.

The corporations and the banksters are raking it in like the bandits they are.

Meanwhile, today unemployment benefits for a couple of million Americans out of work stop, yes they lose all unemployment benefits just before the holidays.

This as the republicans cry out for tax cuts for the 2% million-dollar-a-year income folks who Bush II called "my base".

Monday, November 30, 2015

Paris Climate Change Conference Begins

"Let's Talk It Up"
They have been talking about climate change remedies for decades, as the CO2, temperatures, sea level, and pollution-making fossil fuel use continue to increase.

Even in the august Washington, D.C. (Fig. 1, Fig. 2).

They talk out of one side of their mouth, but do something else.

Dylan described quite well this sort of "speaking in tongues" while in a trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully), calling it a "pig circus" (Hurricane) as well as using "the circus is in town" (Desolation Row) as apt descriptions of some of the conditions around here (You Are Here).

When Obama returns he will face the brain dead crew (Saint Inhofe & Crew, Agnotology: The Surge - 14).

One social media site gathers words to explain the yuppie hopium user perspective:
On Nov. 30, more than 100 world leaders will gather in Paris in what many consider one of the last remaining attempts to squelch the growing scourge of climate change. They'll be joined by many of the planet's leading scientists, who for decades have urged countries to scale back the
Fig. 1
emission of greenhouse gases to stave off a slew of unprecedented consequences.

The meeting -- the 21st Conference of the Parties, or COP21 -- will feature talks from the leaders of the world's worst polluting countries, namely United States President Barack Obama, Russia's Vladimir Putin, China's Xi Jinping and India's Narendra Modi. Environmentalists hope officials will come away from the summit with a sweeping plan to curb emissions and increase investment in renewable energy without any negative economic impacts, because (good news!) climate action is a sound investment.
(What You Need To Know About The Paris Climate Summit, emphasis added). One has to strain themselves out of proportion to gather optimism from the plain historical facts.

Which is why I mention hopium.

Only 1.14% (about one percent) of global ice needs to melt in order to bring on only one of the many threats to civilization as we know it:
To spark our interest, and bind ourselves to a sober view of this phenomenon which is called "The Biggest Story in the World" (according to a worldwide circulation news source), first consider the following quote from the video below:
2:43 - "One meter [of SLR] would be a global catastrophic event, 3 meters would remap the world as we know it?"

2:50 - "Yes, absolutely."
(emphasis added). This allows us to focus our attention on 1m / 3ft. of SLR, because it would be "a global catastrophic event."

The delicacy of the issue can be seen ... by realizing that only 1.14% of the global ice volume needs to melt to get us there (3 ft ÷ 263.5 ft. = 0.011385 = 1.14%).

The overall invader needs to use only 1.14% of its forces to accomplish the invasion.
If a small portion of one glacier (the Totten Glacier) in East Antarctica melts, or otherwise slides into the sea, the same will happen:
"How little it will take can also easily be seen by a statement from a scientist who is studying those locations closely and regularly:
'One of them, Totten glacier, holds the equivalent of seven metres of global sea level.' [a lower estimate is "at least" 3.3 metres here]
(Dr. Rignot East Antarctica glaciers, cf. Totten Glacier Melting). The percentage of that one glacier which needs to melt to cause 3 ft. / 1 m. of SLR is: 1÷7 = 0.142857143 = 14.3%."
(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization). That is a slim margin, because the Totten Glacier is showing signs of decomposition (Nature).
The NEGIS [see here] is 16% of the entire GIS, JI is 8%, while KG & HG are at ~2% each.

These four entities make up 28% of the total ice in the GIS.

The entire GIS represents 21.49 ft. of SLR (Fig. 2), so 28% of that is (21.49 × .28) 6.02 feet.

Which means that only half of that amount (14%) is needed to reach "3 ft. / 1 m. of SLR."
(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 3). Other issues are a greater threat to the extinction of the human species, so I am only talking about the extinction of current civilization in this reference.

Human extinction has never happened yet, but civilizations have a long history of habitually doing the unthinkable:
Fig. 2
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."
(A Study of History,  by Arnold J. Toynbee). The COP21 conferees represent civilization rather than representing the human species, so expect their footprints to eventually lead to the suicide and/or murder of civilization (mass ecocide this time).

That said, remember that current civilization is like no previous civilization (in the sense that it has the power to make human life extinct), and it seems bound and determined to do so:
While Pope Francis has expressed hope that world leaders meeting in Paris for discussions on confronting climate change will find solutions to the problem, he has also said the inaction on the issue up to now is approaching global suicide.

"Every year, the problems are more grave," the pontiff told the press Monday, adding that politicians have so far "done little" to address the situation.

Recounting a meeting he had participated in that focused on what kind of world we are leaving our children, the pope said someone there had asked: "But are you sure that there will be children of this generation?"

"We are at the limit," said Francis. "We are at the limit of a suicide, to say a strong word."
(Pope Francis: World Close To Suicide, emphasis added; cf. Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

"The Circus Is In Town" - Desolation Row, by Dylan (lyrics here)