Thursday, March 30, 2017

On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 15

On the trail ...
I. Background

Regular readers know (as this series shows) that I am "on the case" in the matter of the hypothesis which asserts that "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise in the 20th and 21st centuries".

I can tell you that I have now completed the modules that process all layers of the World Ocean Database (WOD), a database containing billions of measurements taken by hundreds of scientists over many years (see e.g. Databases Galore - 18).

The newly completed modules are NOT for creating graphs.

They are for using the (~0.97 billion measurements) I have used to make SQL databases for detecting changes in temperature and salinity in every depth level of every square mile of every ocean on planet Earth (where WOD measurements have been taken and recorded).

These final product of these three modules is a detailing of changes, and the net result of such changes in terms of increase or decrease in temperature and in salinity of ocean water.

The process focuses on "latitude layers" which are simply eighteen bands of ten degrees latitude in breadth, spanning the entire globe.

They meet at the Equator (see The Layered Approach To Big Water - 8 for a look at the Northern Hemisphere layers).

II. The Process

First I gather the measurements by year, by month, and by day of year.

The year-data is the only one that has a variable number of final components based upon which years in which data was gathered.

The month-data has a fixed number of final components, 12, one for each month.

The day-of-year-data also has a fixed number of final components, 366, one for each day of the year, including leap years.

The software modules load rows of data from an SQL server to generate a mean average of all measurements for each module (i.e. by-year module, by-day-of-year module, and by-month module).

As you might surmise, the by-year module focuses on detecting temperature changes (warming & cooling) year by year; the by-day-of-year modules focuses on detecting temperature changes (warming & cooling) day to day; and the by-month module focuses on detecting temperature changes (warming & cooling) month by month.

They ignore measurements that are not an increase or decrease in temperature and salinity compared to the previous measurement they analyzed.

In other words, depending on the module, if two sequential years, days, or months have the same mean average, there is no change, so depending on the module, the process moves to the next year, day, or month.

Changes are recorded as increases and decreases as the process traverses the data, until the last measurement is processed, then a compilation is generated.

I will have enough to bore you before all is said and done, because there are eighteen layers times 366 + eighteen layers times 12, and eighteen layers times x years to consider.

Fortunately, I  did make a section in each report where the full layer values are recorded, which is much smaller in terms of data, than the entire report.

III. An Example

Following is an example printout of LAYER EIGHT from the by-month module (NOTE: L1 = 0-200m, L2 = 201-400m, L3 = 401-600m, L4 = 601-800m, L5 = 801-1000m, L6 = 1001-3000m, and L7 = >3000m):

Month Report (Temperature & Salinity)

month = 1

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.0434, L2= 10.4838, L3= 7.97412, L4= 6.43355, L5= 5.51067, L6= 3.46801, L7= 1.0671

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 29.9163, L2= 33.1275, L3= 32.6764, L4= 31.9657, L5= 31.8679, L6= 31.9872, L7= 14.0654


month = 2

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.8087, L2= 10.6887, L3= 8.15225, L4= 6.44354, L5= 5.33347, L6= 3.64096, L7= 1.09391

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.9779, L2= 34.2648, L3= 34.2777, L4= 33.9782, L5= 33.916, L6= 33.8689, L7= 16.8543


month = 3

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.0587, L2= 10.613, L3= 7.91122, L4= 6.52757, L5= 5.43234, L6= 3.83356, L7= 1.10093

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.7209, L2= 34.0975, L3= 34.2926, L4= 34.1917, L5= 34.2082, L6= 33.4592, L7= 15.7349


month = 4

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 15.273, L2= 11.0116, L3= 8.246, L4= 6.63033, L5= 5.58023, L6= 3.78207, L7= 1.10204

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 31.2721, L2= 34.4654, L3= 33.9041, L4= 33.7741, L5= 34.0265, L6= 33.2908, L7= 16.4524


month = 5

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.5128, L2= 10.7849, L3= 8.09729, L4= 6.52235, L5= 5.64661, L6= 3.85766, L7= 0.995954

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.0223, L2= 33.8994, L3= 33.5211, L4= 33.2569, L5= 33.2614, L6= 33.0917, L7= 12.1004


month = 6

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 13.0053, L2= 10.4697, L3= 7.77111, L4= 6.28189, L5= 5.29967, L6= 3.53573, L7= 1.05035

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.198, L2= 33.8953, L3= 33.0271, L4= 33.4587, L5= 33.2884, L6= 33.7094, L7= 15.3025


month = 7

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 13.8094, L2= 10.7479, L3= 8.22236, L4= 6.47902, L5= 5.5412, L6= 3.96159, L7= 1.23292

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.7863, L2= 33.2537, L3= 33.2177, L4= 33.1016, L5= 33.3766, L6= 33.4571, L7= 17.6366


month = 8

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.1374, L2= 10.6184, L3= 7.97364, L4= 6.3522, L5= 5.36583, L6= 3.63349, L7= 1.34836

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 32.1701, L2= 33.9175, L3= 33.6309, L4= 33.5921, L5= 33.5165, L6= 33.7212, L7= 19.7673


month = 9

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 12.9352, L2= 10.4553, L3= 7.8871, L4= 6.55954, L5= 5.76661, L6= 3.72202, L7= 1.15517

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.5745, L2= 33.3848, L3= 33.3058, L4= 33.5662, L5= 33.9286, L6= 33.016, L7= 14.4325


month = 10

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 13.3937, L2= 10.8998, L3= 8.08434, L4= 6.41589, L5= 5.40362, L6= 3.71293, L7= 1.1296

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 29.5143, L2= 33.5229, L3= 33.2096, L4= 32.9099, L5= 33.4544, L6= 32.8567, L7= 14.4878


month = 11

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.2476, L2= 10.4884, L3= 7.71465, L4= 6.22846, L5= 5.15675, L6= 3.53236, L7= 1.07716

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 28.9627, L2= 33.3538, L3= 32.0359, L4= 33.5587, L5= 32.7503, L6= 33.0735, L7= 12.9157


month = 12

Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 13.6677, L2= 10.4135, L3= 8.01104, L4= 6.5214, L5= 5.34149, L6= 3.53923, L7= 1.05744

Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.1674, L2= 34.5667, L3= 33.8299, L4= 33.3359, L5= 33.5153, L6= 34.1303, L7= 16.0656


By Month Layer Totals (Temperature & Salinity)


Temperature Changes:

Increases:
L1= 0.737358, L2= 0.331592, L3= 0.291562, L4= 0.14903, L5= 0.190034, L6= 0.160397, L7= 0.064557

Decreases:
L1= 0.95996, L2= 0.199524, L3= 0.236815, L4= 0.161266, L5= 0.261878, L6= 0.178233, L7= 0.0794003

Net Layer Temperature Change (all depths): -0.152546


Salinity Changes:

Increases:
L1= 0.827567, L2= 0.70396, L3= 0.8028, L4= 0.7134, L5= 0.538936, L6= 0.80743, L7= 2.05408

Decreases:
L1= 0.94284, L2= 0.346775, L3= 0.476758, L4= 0.36615, L5= 0.531263, L6= 0.315675, L7= 3.09456

Net Layer Salinity Change (all depths): 0.374149

IV. Another Example

The software prints a report, a compilation of all layers that the software module processed as follows (this is also a report of the by-month module) UPDATE: this is all layers, all types, in HTML:

Summary Report - All Layers
(by month, year, day of year)

Change @ Layer 0

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.249233
Salinity: 0.0357515

By Month:
Temperature: 0.148802
Salinity: -1.93054

By Year:
Temperature: 0.730141
Salinity: -9.30913

Change @ Layer 1

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.20873
Salinity: 0.352097

By Month:
Temperature: -0.288768
Salinity: -1.05714

By Year:
Temperature: -1.02197
Salinity: 6.39866

Change @ Layer 2

By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.226395
Salinity: 0.321025

By Month:
Temperature: 0.668749
Salinity: -2.1037

By Year:
Temperature: 0.0147982
Salinity: 2.07279

Change @ Layer 3

By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0701951
Salinity: -0.0988995

By Month:
Temperature: 0.161305
Salinity: -0.351641

By Year:
Temperature: 0.292753
Salinity: -1.16898

Change @ Layer 4

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0639118
Salinity: -0.272323

By Month:
Temperature: 0.304104
Salinity: 0.250932

By Year:
Temperature: 0.974211
Salinity: 1.24173

Change @ Layer 5

By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0231685
Salinity: 0.234071

By Month:
Temperature: -0.112422
Salinity: 0.516272

By Year:
Temperature: -0.227686
Salinity: -0.159992

Change @ Layer 6

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0387131
Salinity: -0.19058

By Month:
Temperature: -0.340361
Salinity: -0.136017

By Year:
Temperature: -1.66551
Salinity: -1.95515

Change @ Layer 7

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.00697605
Salinity: -0.00730471

By Month:
Temperature: -0.330484
Salinity: -1.50395

By Year:
Temperature: -0.828885
Salinity: -2.06076

Change @ Layer 8

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0388297
Salinity: 0.124951

By Month:
Temperature: -0.152546
Salinity: 0.374149

By Year:
Temperature: 0.968501
Salinity: 2.0629

Change @ Layer 9

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0146486
Salinity: -0.0120359

By Month:
Temperature: -0.124228
Salinity: 0.656732

By Year:
Temperature: -0.0776117
Salinity: -3.34536

Change @ Layer 10

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0446372
Salinity: -0.518755

By Month:
Temperature: 0.329829
Salinity: 0.311527

By Year:
Temperature: 1.10711
Salinity: 1.45228

Change @ Layer 11

By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0436973
Salinity: -0.278299

By Month:
Temperature: -0.0952014
Salinity: -0.267137

By Year:
Temperature: -0.692185
Salinity: -1.3157

Change @ Layer 12

By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0239367
Salinity: 0.174405

By Month:
Temperature: -0.0159302
Salinity: -0.292348

By Year:
Temperature: -1.50679
Salinity: -0.784702

Change @ Layer 13

By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0368379
Salinity: 0.0226267

By Month:
Temperature: -0.103631
Salinity: -1.05413

By Year:
Temperature: 0.855217
Salinity: -2.88072

Change @ Layer 14

By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.021951
Salinity: 0.132577

By Month:
Temperature: 0.0391302
Salinity: -0.0457825

By Year:
Temperature: 0.785626
Salinity: 0.421682

Change @ Layer 15

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0331067
Salinity: -0.413596

By Month:
Temperature: -0.249408
Salinity: -1.68247

By Year:
Temperature: -0.262004
Salinity: 2.63629

Change @ Layer 16

By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.448942
Salinity: -0.535457

By Month:
Temperature: 0.299387
Salinity: -0.288502

By Year:
Temperature: 0.627145
Salinity: -0.452906

Change @ Layer 17

By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0
Salinity: 0

By Month:
Temperature: 0
Salinity: 0

By Year:
Temperature: 0
Salinity: 0


Change Sub-Totals


By-DOY Temperature Change: -0.701547
By-DOY Salinity Change: -0.929748

By-Month Temperature Change: 0.138326
By-Month Salinity Change: -8.60373

By-Year Temperature Change: 0.0728571
By-Year Salinity Change: -7.14707



Change Totals

Temperature Change: -0.163455
Salinity Change: -5.56018


V. Comments

As you can see, the thermal expansion hypothesis is in trouble.

Considering those ~0.97 billion WOD records (about 5% was rejected by the modules), using the CTD and PFL datasets, we find that all layers at all depths in the by-month view in all three views show that the ocean water has warmed changed a mean-average of 0.138326 degrees C -0.163455 degrees C since those measurements began to be recorded.

The degree of salinity dropped changed a mean-average of ~8.6 -5.56018.

All of which does not add up to "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise in the 20th and 21st centuries"  (Humble Oil-Qaeda).

VI. More Work To Be Done

I have a suspicion that the thermal expansion "rumor" was started by scientists who are a bit too close to the oil industry.

As of yet I have no documentation sequestered from the vast collection of documents leading to my suspicion (Smoke & Fumes).

VII. Conclusion

There is a lot of work still to be done.

If you know of any leads, share your comments so as to help others who are with us.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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