Sunday, November 13, 2016

The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 9

Fig. 1
I. Updates

From time to time I update the databases and post blog updates after I run tests on the data.

This post updates a previous post in this series (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 7).

Updates to the WOD and PSMSL databases typically add more measurements at more depths over more years than the previous databases contained.

Some of the data in these updates can make for significant changes, but other additional or new data not so much (trends are trends).

Fig. 2
I combined all WOD zones involved into one graph (Fig. 4) rather than separate them into 5 individual graphs as I did last time (linked-to above).

The recent updates depicted in today's post leaves us with the conclusion that the bottom line (extinction of robust sea ports) has not changed from what it was in the previous post.

That bottom line is that seaports of our current civilization are an endangered species because of ongoing sea level changes:
Based on these calculations, the report says a three-foot sea level rise would threaten 128 U.S. military bases, valued at roughly $100 billion.

Nine of those bases are major hubs for the Navy: In addition to Norfolk, flooding threatens Naval Station Mayport, Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay in Georgia and the Naval Academy in Maryland, where 2003's Hurricane Isabel flooded classrooms, dormitories and athletic facilities.

It's not just the Navy. Marine Corps Recruit Depot Parris Island is at risk of being completely underwater. All told, three Marine Corps installations, two joint bases, an Air Force base and a Coast Guard Station are also at risk of daily flooding, the report said.
(Navy Times, cf. Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity - 2). The top ten non-military seaports face the same form of extinction (see the 6 year old video below, where R. Admiral Tilley explained the danger to seaports a long time ago).

Fig. 3
Uncertainty caused by a fear of facing the reality of acceleration of sea level change is just as real (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

Anyway, the graphs at Fig. 1, Fig. 2, and Fig. 3 show that the top ten seaports are in locations that are experiencing a greater sea level rise than the global mean average.

That can be seen on those graphs by comparing the included satellite data with the tide gauge data.

Two of the graphs break out the sea level change into the geophysical (Fig. 3) and geographical (Fig. 2) components of the combined total.

Fig. 4
"Geographical" (Earth geography) indicates what physical location, such as Antarctica, Greenland, etc., the sea level change is coming from.

"Geophysical" (Earth physics) indicates what type of physics is involved in the sea level change factors originating at those geographical locations.

Geophysical factors involve dynamics such as displacement (caused by melt-water or calving), ghost-water (water released to be redistributed elsewhere that was previously held captive by ice sheet or glacier gravity), and thermal expansion and uplifting (caused by warming oceans and land-mass sinking or rising) as ice sheets and glaciers lose mass.

II. The WOD Zones

The unique WOD Zones involved in this post, concerning the top ten container-ship seaports of the world, are: WOD Zones 1010, 1205, 1211, 1212, 1311, and 1312.

The following computations are an analysis of each recorded change in the WOD data used to produce the graph at Fig. 4, which depicts all measurements at all depths in the WOD zones (only 5 are listed because zone 1311 has no WOD data) where the top ten container seaports are located.

The surface and subsurface temperature change analysis is as follows:


NOTICE: these values are NOT temperatures,
they are CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE:


WOD Zone: 1010 (values are in deg. C)

Concerning temperature changes, there
were 5 upward & 5 downward changes.

Net changes per level were:
  • 0-200m = -5.1528
  • 200-400m = -1.573
  • 400-600m = 0.0436
Net change for 3 levels: -6.6822

Years involved: 1981 -> 2016 (35 yrs)

Average change per year:
  • (-6.6822 ÷ 35): -0.19092




WOD Zone: 1205 (values are in deg. C)

Concerning temperature changes, there
were 68 upward & 53 downward changes.

Net changes per level were:
  • 0-200m = 3.6257
  • 200-400m = 3.5985
  • 400-600m = 1.8253
  • 600-800m = 0.9817
  • 800-1000m = 1.08602
  • 1000-3000m = -2.72141
  • >3000m = -0.00686
Net change for 7 levels: 8.38895

Years involved: 1986 -> 2016 (30 yrs)

Average change per year:
  • (8.38895 ÷ 30): 0.279632




WOD Zone: 1211 (values are in deg. C)

Concerning temperature changes, there
were 96 upward & 78 downward changes.

Net changes per level were:
  • 0-200m = -1.9834
  • 200-400m = 0.286
  • 400-600m = 0.19441
  • 600-800m = 0.25696
  • 800-1000m = 0.1811
  • 1000-3000m = 0.22742
Net change for 6 levels: -0.83751

Years involved: 1985 -> 2016 (31 yrs)

Average change per year:
  • (-0.83751 ÷ 31): -0.0270165




WOD Zone: 1212 (values are in deg. C)

Concerning temperature changes, there
were 132 upward & 150 downward changes.

Net changes per level were:
  • 0-200m = -1.5676
  • 200-400m = 0.0478
  • 400-600m = 0.1361
  • 600-800m = -0.13163
  • 800-1000m = -0.05174
  • 1000-3000m = 0.7026
  • >3000m = -0.56389
Net change for 7 levels: -1.42836

Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)

Average change per year:
  • (-1.42836 ÷ 40): -0.035709




WOD Zone: 1312 (values are in deg. C)

Concerning temperature changes, there
were 51 upward & 34 downward changes.

Net changes per level were:
  • 0-200m = 5.01439
  • 200-400m = 3.98188
  • 400-600m = 1.46745
  • 600-800m = 0.504285
  • 800-1000m = -4.88616
  • 1000-3000m = -5.2012
Net change for 6 levels: 0.88065

Years involved: 2000 -> 2016 (16 yrs)

Average change per year:
  • (0.88065 ÷ 16): 0.0550406




Combined averages for 5 total WOD Zones
(values are in deg. C)

Concerning change, the mean average
was 70 upward & 64 downward changes.

Average changes per depth level were:
  • 0-200m = -0.012742
  • 200-400m = 1.26824
  • 400-600m = 0.733372
  • 600-800m = 0.322263
  • 800-1000m = -0.734155
  • 1000-3000m = -1.39852
  • >3000m = -0.11415
Average change, all 7 levels: 0.064306

Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)

Average annual combined change:
  • (0.064306 ÷ 40): 0.00160765 C per year


The data in the section above is provided to support, among other things, my hypothesis that thermal expansion is a minor player as a cause of sea level rise (see Fig. 3).

III. The PSMSL Stations

Some zones have more PSMSL tide gauge stations than others do, and some zones have no tide gauge stations at all.

The following list contains links to each tide gauge station in each of the WOD Zones in which the top ten seaports are located:

Zone [1010] had [25] stations:

Stn# 1595, Stn# 1594, Stn# 1591, Stn# 1593, Stn# 1677, Stn# 248, Stn# 1702, Stn# 1678, Stn# 1589, Stn# 1592, Stn# 1703, Stn# 1183, Stn# 1746, Stn# 1534, Stn# 2032, Stn# 1351, Stn# 2068, Stn# 2033, Stn# 1248, Stn# 2034, Stn# 1275, Stn# 1894, Stn# 724, Stn# 1895, Stn# 1896

Zone [1205] had [4] stations:

Stn# 1494, Stn# 1887, Stn# 1716, Stn# 2185

Zone [1211] had [14] stations:

Stn# 933, Stn# 727, Stn# 1406, Stn# 1428, Stn# 1698, Stn# 987, Stn# 1674, Stn# 333, Stn# 1891, Stn# 1034, Stn# 1366, Stn# 1685, Stn# 1902, Stn# 269

Zone [1212] had [11] stations:

Stn# 934, Stn# 887, Stn# 1018, Stn# 1522, Stn# 1105, Stn# 1388, Stn# 1151, Stn# 1411, Stn# 1671, Stn# 545, Stn# 1356

Zone [1311] had [4] stations:

Stn# 1405, Stn# 1404, Stn# 1403, Stn# 614

Zone [1312] had [34] stations:

Stn# 979, Stn# 731, Stn# 723, Stn# 1513, Stn# 1100, Stn# 1101, Stn# 672, Stn# 1147, Stn# 1318, Stn# 661, Stn# 1586, Stn# 1007, Stn# 956, Stn# 1699, Stn# 1675, Stn# 959, Stn# 1527, Stn# 1628, Stn# 954, Stn# 1489, Stn# 1627, Stn# 1066, Stn# 1568, Stn# 1546, Stn# 1155, Stn# 1446, Stn# 1588, Stn# 970, Stn# 1445, Stn# 955, Stn# 997, Stn# 1324, Stn# 1108, Stn# 1365

Total Stations: 92

IV. Conclusion

If you are not a regular reader you might want to get the background on why I focus on seaports.

Much of the seaport story is detailed in the following posts: The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8; Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44, Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5.

The videos below contain helpful information on the growing threat.

The previous post in this series is here.

Ret. Navy Adm. Tilley about a decade ago:



See "you in the camps" and see what this Ret. Army Colonel says:



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