Friday, June 15, 2018

Humble Oil-Qaeda - 2

Fig. 1 Merchants of Doubt
I. Oil-Qaeda

In the first post of this series the dark side of the Oil-Qaeda force was discussed (Humble Oil-Qaeda).

In today's post we will take a look at how Oil-Qaeda infects the minds via subversion of the educational system.

But more than that, let's also take a look at how they have done the same thing to the practice of science while we discuss some papers science organizations use to support the myth that thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise.

Oil-Qaeda's impact has been greater than the sum of its parts, in that, even though they have not infected every school and every science organization, they have spread a crippling amount of uncertainty and doubt (see e.g. Reading, Writing And Fracking? What The Oil Industry Teaches Oklahoma Students, Big Oil, Big Influence, Big Oil Goes to College).

It is not all consciously deliberate:
Fig. 2
"That’s something more scientists should probably be doing, because bias is very often completely unconscious. Few researchers will admit to being biased in their research, says Naomi Oreskes, a Harvard University researcher and the author of Merchants of Doubt, and they may not even be aware that their research is being influenced."
(Public Universities Get an Education in Private Industry, bold added). In other words, "In recent years ... understanding of science and respect for its role in decision making have declined ... science is easily drowned out by misinformation or manipulated for the benefit of private interests" (Why a Center for Science and Democracy?).

Now, let's move on to the topic of Oil-Qaeda's impact on scientific literature in the context of thermal expansion of the oceans.

II. My Review of Thermal Expansion Literature

The following list is offered by NOAA (an organization I respect) in support of the TECOSLR myth:
  • Antonov, J. I., S. Levitus, T. P. Boyer, 2002: Steric sea level variations during 1957–1994: Importance
    of salinity, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 8013, DOI: 10.1029/2001JC000964. [gravity=1, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Antonov, J. I., S. Levitus, T. P. Boyer, 2005: Thermosteric sea level rise, 1955–2003, Geophys. Res.
    , 32, L12602, DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023112. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Antonov, J. I., S. Levitus, T. P. Boyer, 2004: Climatological annual cycle of ocean heat content, Geophys.
    Res. Lett.
    , 31, L04304, DOI: 10.1029/2003GL018851. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Boyer, T. et al., 2007: Changes in freshwater content in the North Atlantic Ocean 1955–2006, Geophys.
    Res. Lett.
    , 34, L16603, DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030126. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Boyer, T. P., S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, R. A. Locarnini, H. E. Garcia, 2005: Linear trends in salinity for the
    World Ocean, 1955–1998, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L01604,
    DOI: 10.1029/2004GL021791. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Cabanes, C., A. Cazenave, C. Le Provost, 2001: Sea Level Rise During Past 40 Years Determined from Satellite and in Situ Observations, Science, 294, 840-842, DOI: 10.1126/science.1063556. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Cabanes, C., T. Huck, A. Colin de Verdière, 2006: Contributions of Wind Forcing and Surface Heating to Interannual Sea Level Variations in the Atlantic Ocean, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 36, 1739-1750, DOI: 10.1175/JPO2935.1. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Chambers, D. P., B. D. Tapley, R. H. Stewart, 1997: Long-period ocean heat storage rates and basin-scale heat
    fluxes from TOPEX, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 10,525–10,534,
    DOI: 10.1029/1997/96JC03644.
  • Chambers, D. P., 2006: Observing seasonal steric sea level variations with GRACE and satellite altimetry, J.
    Geophys. Res.
    , 111, C03010, DOI: 10.1029/2005JC002914.
  • Church, J. A., J. S. Godfrey, D. R. Jackett, T. J. McDougall, 1991: A Model of Sea Level Rise Caused by Ocean Thermal Expansion, Journal of Climate, 4, 438-456,DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004%3C0438:AMOSLR%3E2.0.CO;2. [gravity=25+, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Gille, S. T., 2004: How nonlinearities in the equation of state of seawater can confound estimates of steric sea level change, J. Geophys. Res., 109, C03005, DOI: 10.1029/2003JC002012.
  • Gille, S. T., 2002: Warming of the Southern Ocean since the 1950s, Science, 295, 1275-1277, DOI: 10.1126/science.1065863. [gravity=1, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Gouretski, V., K. P. Koltermann, 2007: How much is the ocean really warming?, Geophys. Res. Lett.,34, L01610, DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027834. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Harrison, D. E., M. Carson, 2007: Is the World Ocean Warming? Upper-Ocean Temperature Trends: 1950–2000, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37, 174-187, DOI: 10.1175/JPO3005.1. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Ishii, M., M. Kimoto, K. Sakamoto, S.-I. Iwasaki, 2006: Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analyses, Journal of Oceanography, 62, 155-170, DOI: 10.1007/s10872-006-0041-y. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Ishii, M., A. Shouji, S. Sugimoto, T. Matsumoto, 2005: Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using ICOADS and the Kobe Collection, International Journal of Climatology, 25, 865-879, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1169. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Jayne, S. R., J. M. Wahr, F. O. Bryan, 2003: Observing ocean heat content using satellite gravity and altimetry, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3031, DOI: 10.1029/2002JC001619. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Levitus, S., J. Antonov, T. Boyer, 2005: Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02604, DOI: 10.1029/2004GL021592. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, 1994: Interannual Variability of Temperature at a Depth of 125 Meters in the North-Atlantic Ocean, Science, 266, 96-99, DOI: 10.1126/science.266.5182.96. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, H. E. Garcia, R. A. Locarnini, 2005: Linear trends of zonally averaged thermosteric, halosteric, and total steric sea level for individual ocean basins and the world ocean, (1955–1959)–(1994–1998), Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16601, DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023761. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, H. E. Garcia, R. A. Locarnini, 2005: EOF analysis of upper ocean heat content, 1956–2003, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18607, DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023606. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, C. Stephens, 2000: Warming of the World Ocean, Science, 287, 2225-2229, DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5461.2225. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Levitus, S. et al., 2001: Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System, Science, 292, 267-270, DOI: 10.1126/science.1058154.
  • Lombard, A., A. Cazenave, P. Y. Le Traon, M. Ishii, 2005: Contribution of thermal expansion to present-day
    sea-level change revisited, Global and Planetary Change, 47, 1-16, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.11.016. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Lombard, A. et al., 2007: Estimation of steric sea level variations from combined GRACE and Jason-1 data, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 254, 194-202, DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2006.11.035. [gravity=1, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Lyman, J. M., J. K. Willis, G. C. Johnson, 2006: Recent cooling of the upper ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18604, DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027033. [gravity=10+, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Miller, L., B. C. Douglas, 2004: Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise, Nature, 428, 406–409, DOI: 10.1038/nature02309. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Miller, L., B. C. Douglas, 2006: On the rate and causes of twentieth century sea-level rise, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 364, 805-820, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2006.1738. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Munk, W., 2003: Ocean freshening, sea level rising, Science, 300, 2041-2043, DOI: 10.1126/science.1085534. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Wadhams, P., W. Munk, 2004: Ocean freshening, sea level rising, sea ice melting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L11311, DOI: 10.1029/2004GL020039. [gravity=3, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Willis, J. K., J. M. Lyman, G. C. Johnson, J. Gilson, 2007: Correction to “Recent cooling of the upper ocean”, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16601, DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030323.
  • Willis, J. K., D. Roemmich, B. Cornuelle, 2003: Combining altimetric height with broadscale profile data to estimate steric height, heat storage, subsurface temperature, and sea-surface temperature variability, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3292, DOI: 10.1029/2002JC001755. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
  • Willis, J. K., D. Roemmich, B. Cornuelle, 2004: Interannual variability in upper ocean heat content, temperature, and thermosteric expansion on global scales, J. Geophys. Res., 109, C12036, DOI: 10.1029/2003JC002260. [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a]
(NOAA). A substantial array indeed ... but let's look behind the curtain pointed out by my [gravity=0, Woodward=0, TEOS-10=n/a] insertions above.

Any more (post Newton, post Woodward 1888, and post TEOS-10). when I first load a peer-reviewed paper into my PDF editor, the first words I search for are "gravity," "Woodward," and "TEOS-10."

Concerning the above list of papers, if none of those words appear in a paper, or appear in ways that are properly related to sea level change (the papers are questionable in terms of supporting the myth that thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise) because gravity is the second most important factor after ice sheet melt (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4; The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; NASA Busts The Ghost).

III. The Unfortunate Reality

As I have argued many times over the years, the literature does not uphold the hypothesis that thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise (see e.g.
On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36).

Fig. 4
None of the papers cited above in Section II  use the Gibbs thermodynamics formulas implemented by the current world standard for sea water thermodynamics.

They could not use TEOS-10 because it was not released until a year or so after the most recent of those papers was published.

The graphs at Fig. 2 - Fig. 4 show the comparisons of PSMSL tide gauge station data (hated by Oil-Qaeda) with TEOS-10 aware computations using the TEOS-10 library of sea water specific thermodynamics, which implements the powerful Gibbs functionality (The World According To Measurements - 12).

These graphs show that thermal expansion and contraction are not what the myth that thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise hypothesizes.

If thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise the graphs would be reversed, i.e. the tide gauge records would be the smaller amount (the red line).

IV. Conclusion

It is unfortunate that scientists, along with politicians, are coerced, intimidated, and influenced by fear of losing their jobs and the like, as pointed out by a well-known scientist:
"I suspect the existence of what I call the `John Mercer effect'. Mercer (1978) suggested that global warming from burning of fossil fuels could lead to disastrous disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, with a sea level rise of several meters worldwide. This was during the era when global warming was beginning to get attention from the United States Department of Energy and other science agencies. I noticed that scientists who disputed Mercer, suggesting that his paper was alarmist, were treated as being more authoritative.

It was not obvious who was right on the science, but it seemed to me, and I believe to most scientists, that the scientists preaching caution and downplaying the dangers of climate change fared better in receipt of research funding. Drawing attention to the dangers of global warming may or may not have helped increase funding for relevant scientific areas, but it surely did not help individuals like Mercer who stuck their heads out. I could vouch for that from my own experience. After I published a paper (Hansen et al 1981) that described likely climate effects of fossil fuel use, the Department of Energy reversed a decision to fund our research, specifically highlighting and criticizing aspects of that paper at a workshop in Coolfont, West Virginia and in publication (MacCracken 1983).

I believe there is a pressure on scientists to be conservative. Papers are accepted for publication more readily if they do not push too far and are larded with caveats. Caveats are essential to science, being born in skepticism, which is essential to the process of investigation and verification. But there is a question of degree. A tendency for `gradualism' as new evidence comes to light may be ill-suited for communication, when an issue with a short time fuse is concerned."
(Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise, quoting Dr. James Hansen, emphasis added). So, it is time to stand up to the bully known as Oil-Qaeda.

A lot rests upon our standing up (Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

The previous post in this series is here.

1 comment:

  1. I read an article "Is the IPCC Wrong about Sea Level Rise?" on this subject written by an Oil-Qaeda "agent" (link)

    I searched for "gravity" but it did not appear, "Woodward", but it did not appear, and since it was written recently, "TEOS-10", and it also did not appear.

    Oil-Qaeda does not want us to know.