Saturday, October 3, 2015

Agnotology: The Surge - 18

Fig. 1 Swapping the signs is not a solution
Sea level change (SLC) is one area where those who do not look deep enough will add to the fantasy most people are currently swayed by.

Australians are no exception to the myths any more than people elsewhere are.

A post by an Australian blogger reveals the problems caused by shallow analysis (Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!).

Agnotology allows the erroneous meme to propagate (Climate Common Sense: Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!, Global warming: Australia is Sinking!).

What generated the falsehood in the first place was an improper technique:
Horrified, as I live on the coast I thought I would check the BOM tide gauges at Sydney's Botany Bay and Melbourne's Port Lonsdale to see
Fig. 2 PSMSL Graph For Sydney
how the alarmist predictions were faring at Australia's two largest cities.

Botany Bay had a broken record so I used the last 12 years with a contiguous set of readings and found the mean tide levels had actually fallen over the period. This is good news for Tim Flannery who has a waterfront home in the area.
(Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!, emphasis added). Rule Number One is to "use a reliable tide gauge station" that has "at least 30 years" of reliable data records.

Of the 81 Australian (AUS) tide gauge stations registered at PSMSL (List of Stations), I only use the 21 which qualify by being in accord with Rule Number One (60 do not qualify).

 "Botany Bay", allegedly used by the Australian blogger, doesn't even appear on the station list of PSMSL (which is a sure sign that any data from there is spurious).

Fig. 3
A good tide gauge station in Sydney is shown in Fig. 2 (link to PSMSL page also provided).

It is the Fort Denison 2 station where records are available from 1915 to 2014.

They show 7011 RLR millimeters in 1915 and 7171 RLR millimeters in 2014, indicating sea level rise (SLR) at this time.
Fig. 4

In Fig. 3 another Australian location, Victor Harbor, is shown with SLR, and Fig. 4 shows another Australian location, New Castle V, which has a close latitude and longitude to the Sydney staton (Fig. 2).

It also shows a clear SLR scenario, so I fear what would happen if the Australian blogger were to represent to someone he was selling his house to that "no worries, the sea level here in Sydney is falling lower and lower as the years go by."

His blog is a record that he believes it and has even told "Tim Flannery" the good news about his reading of a tide gauge that is not one the reputable site PSMSL.

Misrepresentation is generally actionable in common law countries:
Misrepresentation is the giving of false information by one party (or her or his agent) to the other before the contract is made, which induces them to make the contract. If you make a contract in reliance on a misrepresentation and suffer loss as a result, you can cancel the contract or claim damages.
(Australian Contract Law, cf. Misleading or Deceptive Conduct). Denialism is one thing but when a person imposes it on others, in some situations there can be legal issues.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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