Wednesday, April 13, 2016

The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 4

Fig. 1 America divided by sea level change
I. Introduction

The issue of acceleration of sea level change events has been discussed on Dredd Blog posts before (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; Will This Float Your Boat?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

Regular readers know that Dredd Blog posts tend to talk about such things before rather that after.

It is more pragmatic that way (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5) --- you know, because "water under the bridge" is not something one looks forward to, however, events that are sure to happen is another matter (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3).
Fig. 2

"Acceleration" is difficult to grasp, but one's understanding of acceleration can be substantially improved by headlines like this: "Greenland sees record-smashing early ice sheet melt" (Guardian).

I say that because "record smashing" is another way of saying "accelerating."

II. "Today's Acceleration" Will Always Startle The BAU Crowd

Fig. 3
"Unbelievable" is one word that appears in written exclamations that both precede as well as follow events outside our social trance that is generally called "the comfort zone" (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

"Belief" has nothing to do with whether or not catastrophe is headed our way because of global warming, because "catastrophic" is just another way of expressing degree of climate change brought about by burning fossil fuels.

Likewise, "surprise", such as the following, is just another way of saying "we were unaware":
The Arctic is wild (12% of Greenland under melt conditions a month early yesterday) and the odd readings about sea ice extent are seen as a satellite
Fig. 4
malfunction induced by an unexpected Arctic scenario ("worse than previously thought").

"NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images.." (NSIDC)

"Warm, wet conditions rapidly kicked off the melt season this weekend, more than a month-and-a-half ahead of schedule. It has easily set a record for earliest melt season onset, and marks the first time it’s begun in April." (Greenland’s Melt Season Started Nearly Two Months Early)
(The 1.14% vs. The 100%, Updated). The most important aspect of this situation is the acceleration of sea level change (ibid).

III. The "Lifeblood" of Current Civilization

Fig. 5
Democratic propaganda tells us that "oil is the lifeblood" of the economy (The Peak of The Oil Lies - 2, The Ways of Bernays - 2).

That is false.

Dirty oil and other polluting sources are actually the deathblood, but it nevertheless flows through the veins of current civilization, but fossil fuel use never has and never will bring anything but death and destruction.

The reality is that current civilization's cardiovascular system (seaports and sea lanes) is the dynamic to watch, and to watch very closely:
"By volume, more than 95 percent of U.S. international trade moves through the nation's ports and harbors, with about 50 percent of these goods being hazardous materials."
(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 5). Current civilization
Fig. 6
would destabilize and disappear virtually overnight if seaports were substantially debilitated.

Seaports are the place where the true lifeblood, international trade goods, flow in and out of the orifices of civilization around the world.

Our Phoenician styled civilization is a "seagoing" society. (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 3).

IV. What Seaports Face

Fig. 7
The Hansen Paper, video, and transcript make it easy to see that seaports are "far more vulnerable than previously thought"  (The 1.14% vs. The 100%).

They were built at a sea level of long ago in most cases, but in all cases that sea level is changing.

The graphs at Fig. 2 - Fig. 7 show the history of sea level change in the zones that contain the twenty top ranking cargo seaports.
Fig. 8 Zones

Those graphs are based on the Hansen et. al. paper mentioned above, and discussed previously here at Dredd Blog (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion, 2, 3).

Anyway, the twenty largest seaports (and many, many others) are in a relatively small number of "zones" (see Section VI below) as shown here:

Fig. 9 Zone "Quadrants" and "Sub-quadrants"
AJ (#11, #15, #16)
AL (#1, #5, #7, #12)
AQ (#2, #3, #4, #8, #13, #17, #19)
AR (#6, #14)
AP (#9)
AK (#10)

Regular readers know that "zones, quadrants, and sub-quadrants" are words in the Dredd Blog language for latitude and longitude bounded areas of the globe.

See Fig. 8 for global "zones", and see Fig. 9 for zone (red square) components which are "quadrants" (4 circles at the middle of 4 squares) and "sub-quadrants" (4 ovals in smaller squares).

Each zone, for focusing on sea level change, has 16 smaller areas denominated as "AA.NE.SW".

In that example, AA=zone, NE=quadrant, and SW=sub-quadrant.

V. Oil-Qaeda Criminals Deceived The Public

Dredd Blog has, for years now, pointed out the criminal conspiracy to deceive the public about fossil fuel industry products (Oilah Akbar! Oilah Akbar!, 2, 3, 4; Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

Here is another case:
"In 1968, a pair of scientists from Stanford Research Institute wrote a report for the American Petroleum Institute, a trade association for America’s oil and natural gas industry. They warned that “man is now engaged in a vast geophysical experiment with his environment, the earth” — one that “may be the cause of serious world-wide environmental changes.”

The scientists went on: “If the Earth’s temperature increases significantly, a number of events might be expected to occur including the melting of the Antarctic ice cap, a rise in sea levels, warming of the oceans and an increase in photosynthesis.”
(New Documents Show Oil Industry Even More Evil Than We Thought). The Oil-Qaeda criminal cabal is full of wicked murderers.

VI. The 50 Zones With The Top 100 Sea Ports

In the following list, "stations" means PSMSL tide gauge stations within that zone.

The word "rank" means the port's rank as to how much cargo volume per year that port does (rank = 1 - 100).

1) Zone: AL.SW.SW, ports: 6,
[Shanghai, China: rank=1]
[Busan, S. Korea, rank=5]
[Qingdao Gang, China, rank=7]
[Taicang, China, rank=42]
[Gwangyang Hang, S. Korea, rank=63]
[Incheon, S. Korea, rank=65]
stations: 71

2) Zone: AQ.SE.SW, ports: 3,
[Keppel - (East Singapore), Singapore: rank=2]
[Port Klang, Malaysia, rank=13]
[Tanjung Pelepas, Malaysia, rank=19]
stations: 28

3) Zone: AQ.NE.NE, ports: 7,
[Shenzhen, China: rank=3]
[Guangzhou Harbor, China, rank=8]
[Xiamen, China, rank=17]
[Fuzhou, China, rank=73]
[Dongguan, China, rank=90]
[Zhongshan, China, rank=98]
[Shantou, China, rank=100]
stations: 2

4) Zone: AQ.NE.SE, ports: 1,
[Hong Kong, China: rank=4]
stations: 18

5) Zone: AR.NW.NW, ports: 4,
[Ningbo, China: rank=6]
[Kaohsiung, Taiwan, rank=14]
[Keelung, Taiwan, rank=53]
[Taichung, Taiwan, rank=93]
stations: 11

6) Zone: AP.NE.NE, ports: 4,
[Jebel Ali, U.A.E.: rank=9]
[Khor Fakkan, U.A.E., rank=35]
[Bandar-E Shahid Reajie, IR, rank=76]
[Dammam, Saudi Arabia, rank=80]
stations: 3

7) Zone: AK.SE.NE, ports: 1,
[Tianjin Xin Gang, China: rank=10]
stations: 2

8) Zone: AJ.NW.SW, ports: 5,
[Rotterdam, Netherlands: rank=11]
[Antwerp, Belguim, rank=16]
[Felixstowe, U.K., rank=37]
[Port of Le Havre, FR, rank=59]
[Bruges, Belguim, rank=70]
stations: 33

9) Zone: AL.SW.NW, ports: 4,
[Dalian, China: rank=12]
[Yingkou, China, rank=27]
[Yantai, China, rank=67]
[Dandong, China, rank=85]
stations: 6

10) Zone: AJ.NW.NW, ports: 2,
[Hamburg, Germany: rank=15]
[Bremen, Germany, rank=23]
stations: 54

11) Zone: AH.SW.SW, ports: 2,
[Los Angeles, U.S.A.: rank=18]
[Long Beach, U.S.A., rank=20]
stations: 11

12) Zone: AW.NE.NE, ports: 2,
[Tanjung Priok, Indonesia: rank=21]
[Surabaya, Indonesia, rank=47]
stations: 0

13) Zone: AQ.SE.NW, ports: 2,
[Laem Chabang, Thailand: rank=22]
[Bangkok, Thailand, rank=88]
stations: 7

14) Zone: AQ.SE.NE, ports: 1,
[Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: rank=24]
stations: 7

15) Zone: AK.SE.SE, ports: 3,
[Lianyungang, China: rank=25]
[Nanjing, China, rank=52]
[Rizhao, China, rank=69]
stations: 2

16) Zone: AH.SE.NE, ports: 1,
[New York City, U.S.A.: rank=26]
stations: 31

17) Zone: AL.SW.SE, ports: 5,
[Tokyo Ko, Japan: rank=28]
[Yokohama Ko, Japan, rank=48]
[Nagoya Ko, Japan, rank=51]
[Kobe, Japan, rank=56]
[Osaka, Japan, rank=60]
stations: 47

18) Zone: AP.NE.SW, ports: 1,
[Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: rank=29]
stations: 1

19) Zone: AI.SE.SE, ports: 2,
[Algeciras, Spain: rank=30]
[Tanger, MA, rank=55]
stations: 20

20) Zone: AI.SE.NE, ports: 2,
[Valencia, Spain: rank=31]
[Cartagena, Spain, rank=71]
stations: 29

21) Zone: AQ.SW.SE, ports: 1,
[Colombo, Sri Lanka: rank=32]
stations: 0

22) Zone: AQ.NW.SW, ports: 1,
[Mumbai, India: rank=33]
stations: 8

23) Zone: AJ.SE.SW, ports: 3,
[Bur Said, Egypt: rank=34]
[Mersin, Turkey, rank=95]
[Haifa, IL, rank=96]
stations: 13

24) Zone: AR.SW.NW, ports: 1,
[Manila, Philippines: rank=36]
stations: 16

25) Zone: AU.SW.SW, ports: 1,
[Santos, Brazil: rank=38]
stations: 2

26) Zone: AJ.SW.NE, ports: 3,
[Ambarli, Turkey: rank=39]
[Piraeus, Greece, rank=43]
[Gioia Tauro, Italy, rank=44]
stations: 46

27) Zone: A0.NW.NW, ports: 2,
[Colón, Argentina: rank=40]
[Buenos Aires, AR, rank=81]
stations: 9

28) Zone: AP.NE.SE, ports: 1,
[Salalah, Oman: rank=41]
stations: 2

29) Zone: AN.SE.NW, ports: 1,
[Balboa, Panama: rank=45]
stations: 15

30) Zone: AH.SE.SW, ports: 2,
[Savannah, U.S.A.: rank=46]
[Charleston, U.S.A., rank=82]
stations: 29

31) Zone: AG.NE.SE, ports: 3,
[Vancouver, Canada: rank=49]
[Tacoma, U.S.A., rank=78]
[Seattle, U.S.A., rank=83]
stations: 31

32) Zone: AJ.SW.SW, ports: 1,
[Malta Freeport, Malta: rank=50]
stations: 3

33) Zone: AV.SE.SW, ports: 1,
[Durban, S. Africa: rank=54]
stations: 3

34) Zone: AN.NE.NW, ports: 2,
[St Petersburg, U.S.A.: rank=57]
[Freeport, BS, rank=94]
stations: 25

35) Zone: A3.NW.SE, ports: 1,
[Melbourne, Australia: rank=58]
stations: 8

36) Zone: AQ.NW.NW, ports: 2,
[Mundra, India: rank=61]
[Karachi, PK, rank=84]
stations: 3

37) Zone: AG.SE.NE, ports: 1,
[Oakland, U.S.A.: rank=62]
stations: 11

38) Zone: AH.SW.SE, ports: 1,
[Virginia, U.S.A.: rank=64]
stations: 0

39) Zone: A3.NE.NW, ports: 1,
[Sydney, Australia: rank=66]
stations: 10

40) Zone: AN.NW.SE, ports: 1,
[Manzanillo, Mexico: rank=68]
stations: 10

41) Zone: AJ.SW.NW, ports: 3,
[Genoa, Italy: rank=72]
[Barcelona, Spain, rank=77]
[La Spezia, Italy, rank=99]
stations: 38

42) Zone: AN.NW.NE, ports: 1,
[Houston, U.S.A.: rank=74]
stations: 12

43) Zone: AT.NE.SW, ports: 1,
[Puerto del Callao, PE: rank=75]
stations: 2

44) Zone: AX.SE.SE, ports: 1,
[Kingston, NF: rank=79]
stations: 1

45) Zone: AQ.NE.SW, ports: 1,
[Chittagong, BD: rank=86]
stations: 7

46) Zone: AT.NE.NW, ports: 1,
[Guayaquil, EC: rank=87]
stations: 5

47) Zone: AH.SE.NW, ports: 1,
[Alexandria, U.S.A.: rank=89]
stations: 14

48) Zone: AI.NE.SE, ports: 1,
[Southampton, U.K.: rank=91]
stations: 32

49) Zone: AQ.SW.NE, ports: 1,
[Chennai (Madras), India: rank=92]
stations: 5

50) Zone: AH.NE.SE, ports: 1,
[Montreal, Canada: rank=97]
stations: 36

VII. Conclusion

There are lots of posts on Dredd Blog that deal with the subject of sea ports (e.g. go to the Series Posts Tab page, then scroll down or search for "sea ports" for a glimpse.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


  1. What I would like to know is how much SLR would it take to make a major port inoperable? Can they do any low/modest cost adjustments to extend the life span. I've read that Navies are concerned as well, but I have yet to see any numbers. With a hydro dam they have exact numbers for minimum water levels before they can no longer generate electricity. If I recall correctly, Hoover dam installed some low flow turbines to extend the life for awhile longer.

    1. Anonymous,

      Good questions.

      The answer is yes, no, and maybe ... depending on the locale and the people there.

      Some places will have sea level fall (Proof of Concept - 3, Proof of Concept - 5).

      In places of sea level rise, everyone will want to do something concrete at about the same time, which is another problem (Flailing In a Sea of Panic and Propaganda).

      Previous posts convered some of it (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3).

      Surveys have been conducted which question port officials about this issue (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).



    Top NOAA officials predict 3 meters of SLR by 2050-2060.