Monday, May 9, 2016

The Warming Science Commentariat - 3

Fig. 1 Hippy Physicist
The "warming commentariat" continues to promote junk-science scenarios.

They do so even though the fundamental science to the contrary of their assertions has not changed since Newton (there are even some rumors going around that the law of gravity even goes back in time and place [You Are Here] to a time and place before Newton ... cf. Fig. 1 and this).

Here is a general narrative of the mythical thermal rap:
While climate science was still in its infancy during 1925 [wrong The Exceptional American Denial], a human forced warming of the globe was starting to kick into higher gear. A signal of atmospheric warming since the 1880s was beginning to develop [wrong @25 years into the industrial revolution, the Greenland ice sheet was already beginning to melt: Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 54]. Though unclear [wrong it is "unclear" to deniers today because their mind is unclear, not because the science is unclear: Inhofe's One Man Troofiness Crusade], it was becoming apparent that the airs of the world were building up heat. But the waters of the world were providing a strong signal that the Earth was accumulating that heat more and more rapidly.

Sea level rise, at that time driven by thermal expansion [wrong: The Warming Science Commentariat] and by a later small but growing contribution from glacial melt [wrong: ice sheets were beginning to melt circa 1775: Proof of Concept - 5], took its first leap higher. And from 1925 through 1992, the average rate of sea level rise more than doubled to 1.9 millimeters per year. It was a sign that the Earth was warming more and more rapidly and that the heat was showing up in still more thermal expansion of the world’s waters [wrong: the melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the late 1700's, and the resulting sea level change was not caused by thermal expansion: The Warming Science Commentariat - 2].
(Scribbler, [editing added between brackets]). The warming commentariat needs to realize that physics is real even though some of the major discoveries that impact sea level change were known in Isaac Newton's time (e.g. gravity, Fig. 1).

The hypothesis of the application of the law of gravity to ice sheet dynamics was published in scientific papers long ago: Woodward (1888).

The application of the law of gravity to ice sheet dynamics is not junk-science, like the above narrative is:
Because every ice sheet and glacier has a unique location and size, each one creates a pattern of response in the ocean as individual as a fingerprint. "The physics behind understanding these fingerprints is very well understood," Tamisiea said. "It's like the tides." He and Jerry Mitrovica of Harvard University have calculated the fingerprints of East and West Antarctica and Greenland around the globe. "We do each ice sheet individually so we can use the latest GRACE analysis," Tamisiea explained. "You can sort of add the effects up and see what the result is for any given location."

As any ice sheet melts, sea levels along coastlines as much as 1,500 miles
Fig. 2 The Battle of the Bulge
(2,000 kilometers) away will fall as seawater escapes from the reduced gravitational pull and the crust lifts. The escaping seawater flows clear across the equator: the melting of Antarctica affects the U.S. East and West coasts, and Greenland's disappearance impacts the coastline of Brazil. These regional differences are significant -- such as in the case of the East Coast of the United States.
(The Fingerprints of Sea Level Rise, NASA JPL). Regular readers know that I call this "escaping" water that is already in the ocean "ghost-water" because very, very few observers "see" it  (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

I call it that because the warming commentariat cannot see it even though it is the second largest contributor to sea level change, whether that change is sea level rise or sea level fall (see Fig. 2, and The Battle of the Bulge).

Fig. 3 Geographical Sources
"Displacement" is what I call the number one sea level change factor.

Displacement is what happens when Ice sheet melt-water and calved icebergs leave a land mass to enter the ocean.

"Displacement" is also a well known scientific term (Water Displacement).

In contrast to ghost=water, the warming commentariat can see displacement a little bit, but they do not see it as a major player.

Those two (displacement & ghost water) are the two major players in sea level change in terms of being related to ice sheets.

The 5.1% thermal expansion, etc. make up the minor factor.
Fig. 4 Geophysical Sources

Those three factors are the "geophysical factors" at all three land based sources of sea level rise (Greenland, Antarctica, and mountain glaciers).

They are depicted in a graph concerning the history of sea level in one area of the globe (Fig. 4).

I call the land locations where those major geophysical dynamics originate "geographical sources" (Fig. 3).

The bottom line is that global warming induced by the burning of fossil fuels causes the geophysical dynamics of displacement and ghost-water relocation at Greenland, Antarctica, and mountain glaciers that flow into the oceans.

Those are the major factors, with the added minor factor of thermal expansion of the ocean from global warming, along with land uplift.

Those geophysical dynamics operate at all of the relevant geographical locations of the globe (geographical: SLC Fingerprints R Us, 2; both:  The Ghost-Water Constant - 4).

The bottom line is: The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


  1. New map reveals ice flows on Antarctic Peninsula


    1. Dr. Rignot is all over this stuff too: