Monday, April 6, 2026

AMOC Or A Mock? - 7

Cool Kinetic Man
"Physical Oceanography" is described as:
"...the field of study that deals with mechanisms of energy transfer through the sea and across its boundaries, and with the physical interactions of the sea with its surroundings, especially including the influence of the seas on the climate of the atmosphere." (UCSD)

"Physical oceanography is the study of physical conditions and physical processes within the ocean, especially the motions and physical properties of ocean waters." (Physical oceanography)

"However, just like a river pouring into an estuary, its possible for that heat flux to be carried in a very shallow current and drive a very weak volume transport that only affects the very surface ocean. In such a world, all the deep ocean would be cold, and a thin layer at the surface would be very warm ..." (U. of Victoria)

(emphasis added). Adding "thermohaline current" to the notion of "Physical Oceanography" reminds me of the saying "Houston we have a problem".

The use of "thermo" instead of "kinetic" seems to have emerged after the early years when Newtonian mechanics permeated oceanography, that is, the years during the EOS-80 era prior to quantum mechanics and the current TEOS-10 era.

The term "kinetichaline" is a better term.

In a previous post in this series I pointed out that several popular hypotheses/theories are experiencing criticism generated by new evidence:

"I am sure that some are asking why Dredd Blog criticizes "known solid science".

The answer is that even though a hypothesis like a 'global thermolhaline conveyor' is believed to exist by many, so were other scientific hypotheses in scientific journals, science textbooks, and university curricula that proved not to exist (see Fig. 1).

The first video below is another example.

And religions have the same problem that manifests itself after millions accept a hypothesis as true.

The second video below is yet another example.

But the main reason long-held scientific dogma is falsifiable is when new evidence  falsifies the dogma."

(AMOC Or A Mock? - 4). Thus, a paper in the journal Nature ("Widespread global disparities between modelled and observed mid-depth ocean currents") caught my eye.

While pointing out that all is not well with the thermohaline current hypothesis, that paper included references to other scientific journal papers to help illustrate the point.

I perused references in the paper to extract relevant information, then also searched those references for the following words: "photon", "enthalpy", "TEOS", and "kinetic". 

The sums for the number of each of those four words which my search found in those papers is in brackets below (following each reference) as "[0,0,0,0]" etc.:

ref_1: "The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)...its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements" [0,0,0,0]
ref_2: "...climate models project...events, but the change differs vastly across models" [0,0,0,0]
ref_3: "...attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land" [0,0,0,0]
ref_4: "Climate change will add to the burden fish stocks bear, but such impacts remain largely unknown" [0,0,0,0]
ref_5: "eLetters is a forum for ongoing peer review. eLetters are not edited, proofread, or indexed..." [0,0,0,0]

ref_6: "The ocean record of this imbalance is much less affected by internal variability and is thus better suited for detecting and attributing human influences...than more commonly used surface temperature records" [0,0,0,0]

ref_7: "Little is known about the ocean temperature’s long-term response to climate perturbations owing to limited observations and a lack of robust reconstructions. Although most of the anthropogenic heat added to the climate system has been taken up by the ocean up until now, its role in a century and beyond is uncertain" [0,0,0,1]

ref_8: "the effects of meltwater from the ice sheets and ice shelves of Antarctica are not included in the widely used CMIP5 climate models, which introduces bias into IPCC climate projections" [0,0,0,0]

ref_9: "existing climate models do not accurately capture the observed patterns of ocean warming, with a large spread in their projections of ocean circulation and ocean heat uptake" [0,0,0,0]

ref_10: about ARGO [0,0,0,1]
ref_11: "The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat" [0,0,0,0]

ref_12: "In the context of continued greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth has experienced very rapid warming over the past several decades. As the main reservoir of the Earth’s climate system, the ocean transfers much of the extra heat, which leads to long-term atmospheric warming, from sea surface to the deep oceans" [0,0,0,4]

ref_13: "Under historical greenhouse warming, regional ocean currents show diverse tendencies, but whether there is an emerging trend of the global mean ocean circulation system is not yet clear" [0,0,0,4]

ref_14: "Seawater generally forms stratified layers with lighter waters near the surface and denser waters at greater depth. This stable configuration acts as a barrier to water mixing that impacts the efficiency of vertical exchanges of heat, carbon, oxygen and other constituents. Previous quantification of stratification change has been limited to simple differencing of surface and 200-m depth changes and has neglected the spatial complexity of ocean density change. Here, we quantify changes in ocean stratification down to depths of 2,000 m" [0,0,0,0]

ref_15: "Typical transit times are 300, 700, and 3600 years for the upper route" [0,0,0,0]
ref_16: "the overall distribution and circulation of water properties-a problem that has its roots deep in the nineteenth century. How the different waters move, and why, is treated both in terms of observation and theory...Much of dynamical oceanography has focused on the Gulf Stream System, and this book is no exception" [0,0,0,0]

ref_17: same as ref_18 [0,0,0,0]

ref_18: "Over the last five decades Physical Oceanography developed explosively from a state with only a few observations and theories to a mature science with global field pro- grams, massive computer power, and a complex theoretical framework. The scientists who led this development are already or will soon be retired" [0,0,0,0]

ref_19: bio argo [0,0,0,0]
ref_20: "Within the past 15 years, with the advent of the global Argo array of profiling floats, it has become possible to sample the upper 2,000 m of the ocean" [0,0,0,0]
ref_21: "The mean ocean circulation near 1000-m depth is estimated" [0,0,0,4]

ref_22: "The geostrophic velocity relative to a reference level of 900 db is estimated from temperature and salinity profiles, and the absolute geostrophic velocity at the reference level is estimated" [0,0,0,0]

ref_23: "allowing this method to produce increasingly accurate results in the future" [0,0,0,4]
ref_24: "but was associated with such large uncertainty that it was statistically indistinguishable from zero" [0,0,4,9]
ref_25: "...one of the largest sources of error in estimates of mean ocean circulation based on subsurface float displacements is caused by temporal variability" [0,0,0,0]

ref_26: "the trend computed from the five original transects could not be considered statistically significant...direct observations of overturning variability have so far been confined to...26.5°N...It is assumed that all of the northward transport in the upper 1130 m is returned at depth" [0,0,0,0]

ref_27: "Argo observations are available for only 8 years; hence, it is not possible to study correlation of ocean transport and wind forcing for the multiyear time scale" [0,0,0,1]

ref_28: "We still lack a comprehensive theoretical understanding of why these jets systems exist. Despite the recent expansion in observing systems, our ability to measure or deduce subsurface oceanic currents is still very limited" [0,0,0,0]

ref_29: "it is still necessary to await a longer observational time series or employ a model...to explore the residual zonal velocity variance" [0,0,0,0]

ref_30: "Multidecadal trends in ocean heat and freshwater content are well documented, but much less evidence exists of long-term changes in ocean circulation...Although there is conclusive evidence of multidecadal changes in regional and global ocean temperature and salinity, there is much less to support changes in ocean circulation" [0,0,0,0]

ref_31 "the first application of Argo floats to estimate overturning in a deep-water formation region in the North Atlantic...air–sea fluxes extract heat from the northward-flowing surface...Even though the Labrador Sea is the most studied...many open questions remain regarding its overturning" [0,0,3,0]

ref_32: "The deep currents at 700–800 m depths...eddy kinetic energy (EKE)" [0,0,3,0]
ref_33: about ARGO [0,0,0,0]
ref_34: liquid dynamics [0,0,0,2]
ref_35: "general circulation models" [0,0,0,22]
ref_36: drifting [0,0,0,2]

ref_37:  "Actual float trajectories might also help to quantify the convergence predicted in our study. However, our results suggest that at current Argo spacing, several more decades of trajectory data will be needed to map statistically significant acceleration patterns at the scale of mesoscale frontal features in the ocean" [0,0,0,9]

(ibid). The word "photon" appears zero times (see The Photon Current, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 , 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22), the word "enthalpy" appears zero times (see Potential Enthalpy: A Conservative Oceanic Variable for Evaluating Heat Content and Heat Fluxes,), the word "TEOS" appears a few times (see Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010), and the word "kinetic" appears most often, only because the hypothesis leans on kinetic energy which is not thermo, for the illusion of heat transfer.

The concept of heat flux in the ocean within current "physical oceanography" dogma is a throwback to the science predating Einstein, quantum mechanics, TEOS-10, and quantum physics (Quantum Oceanography, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20).

The previous post in this series is here.