Thursday, November 19, 2015

Questionable "Scientific" Papers

Senator Inhofe's research staff
I. Introduction

I am beginning a new series on questionable scientific papers, because there seems to be a surge in their numbers lately.

This post could have been placed in the Agnotology series.

But, that series is getting crowded, with 17 posts already (Agnotology: The Surge - 17).

So is the Weekend Rebel Science Excursion series, with 53 already (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 53), so, here we go, and maybe, just maybe, we can work up a scale for awarding the worst science paper of the year award (e.g. "the Inhofe Research Award").

Today's candidate Inhofe Research Award paper, like the last one I posted about (here), is published in the journal Nature.

A journal that may be going the way of National Geographic.

The National Geographic that was recently purchased by Robert Murdoch, who also owns the scientific journal Fox News.

II. Today's Candidate

The Inhofe Research Award paper asserts that:
Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 ...
(Nature Letter, 18 Nov 2015). Note that "30 cm" is 300 mm (0.98 ft), and 72 cm is 720 mm (2.36 ft).

The software model that they talked about in their paper, and used to reach their dark minded conclusion, sucks.

That model projects that only 3.53 mm (2100 - 2015 = 85 yrs; 300mm ÷ 85yrs = 3.53 mm yr) per year of sea level rise (SLR) from Antarctica up to 2100.

Those who care to base software models on reality know that there are annual tide gauge station records going back to the early 1800's, located all around the globe, which refute this junk "science" paper (e.g. Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, PSMSL).

Those records reveal, to those who can read, that orders of magnitude more than 3.53 mm per year already happen in locations around the world.

That would amount to astronomically more that 30cm over 85 years.

Washington, DC, for example, in 1996 alone had a sea level rise (SLR) of 153 mm (43.34 times more than their bogus yearly average of 3.53 mm).

The very next year, Santa Cruz had a one year SLR of 235 mm (66.57 times more than their bogus yearly average of 3.53 mm).

The list goes onward and upward:

Station NameNumberLatitudeLongitude↕mmYear
FOGLO-DEGERBY24960.031883220.38481712121996
PAGO-PAGO539-14.2799997-170.69000242421999
WEIPA1157-12.6666670141.86666871801972
VICTOR-HARBOUR1069-35.5624809138.63540651391997
PORT-ADELAIDE-OUTER-HARBOR448-34.7797623138.48072811371972
BUNBURY834-33.3234444115.65997311302011
FREMANTLE111-32.0655556115.74813841391940
ST-GEORGES-ESSO-PIER-BERMUDA36832.3733330-64.70333101521974
ILHA-FISCAL1032-22.8966675-43.16666791691971
NEW-WESTMINSTER124549.2000008-122.91666412211977
SAINT-JOHN-NB19545.2666664-66.06666561292014
QUEBEC-LAUZON17346.8333321-71.16666411651948
DESCHAILLONS20146.5666656-72.09999853462012
PORT-SAINT-FRANCOIS13746.2666664-72.61666875302012
TROIS-RIVIERES12646.3333321-72.55000317841944
BATISCAN14446.5000000-72.25000003922008
PORTNEUF95146.6833344-71.88333132261999
NEUVILLE19246.7000008-71.56666561901999
ST-JOSEPH-DE-LA-RIVE124447.4500008-70.36666871551980
TUKTOYAKTUK100069.4166641-132.96665951521967
ANTOFAGASTA-2510-23.6530552-70.40444181321973
VALPARAISO499-33.0272217-71.62583161411997
PENRHYN1450-9.0166674-158.06666561821983
BAKAR35345.299999214.53333281331951
SPLIT-RT-MARJANA68543.508331316.39166641582011
GEDSER12054.572776811.92555621912007
RODBYHAVN76254.655834211.34861092871980
KOBENHAVN8255.705001812.60000041311961
HORNBAEK11956.091110212.45833301421961
HIRTSHALS8957.59555449.96388911381961
HANSTHOLM70357.11888898.59555631401984
ESBJERG8055.46083458.44111061681996
SANTA-CRUZ1472-0.7500000-90.31666562351997
KEMI22965.673370424.51524932481939
OULU-ULEABORG7965.040313725.41823392431961
RAAHE-BRAHESTAD24064.666336124.40704922461961
PIETARSAARI-JAKOBSTAD19463.708568622.68958282331961
VAASA-VASA5763.081531521.57118232171939
KASKINEN-KASKO28562.343948421.21483232201996
MANTYLUOTO17261.594383221.46343232171996
RAUMA-RAUMO37661.133533521.42581752121961
TURKU-ABO23960.428283722.10053252201961
HANKO-HANGO7159.822868322.97658352031996
HELSINKI1460.153633124.95621682441996
HAMINA31560.562767027.17919922481961
MARSEILLE6143.27880105.35385991501951
POTI4142.166667941.68333441831970
BATUMI5141.633331341.70000081681949
SASSNITZ39754.510833713.64305591481996
WISMAR-2853.898887611.45805641381952
PREVEZA41038.959079720.75662801291991
PIRAIEVS37437.937328323.62671471321992
ALEXANDROUPOLIS123840.844139125.87827111402011
APRA-HARBOUR-GUAM54013.4383326144.65333562311972
TAI-PO-KAU-TOLO-HARBOUR103422.4424992114.18389131731970
HANASAKI-II144243.2780571145.56777951361995
KAMINATO-II-HATIZYO-SIMA144033.1302795139.80471806182002
MIYAKE-SIMA106034.0672226139.48083502952001
KOZU-SIMA106134.2091675139.131668111432007
KURE-I132033.3336105133.24333191392005
KANTON-ISLAND-B1329-2.8166671-171.71665951541998
KLAIPEDA11855.700000821.13333322161996
KWAJALEIN5138.7316666167.73500061351997
ACAPULCO68616.8333321-99.91666411321982
YAP-B12519.5166674138.13333132051997
DELFZIJL2453.32638936.93305591471877
HARLINGEN2553.17555625.40944391481996
DEN-HELDER2352.96444324.74499991341866
MAASSLUIS951.91749954.24972201311866
VLISSINGEN2051.44222263.59611111451903
WHANGAREI-HARBOUR-MARSDEN-POINT1065-35.7574310174.35003661301992
HONNINGSVAG126770.980316225.97269631451975
ANDENES42569.326065116.13484761381952
NARVIK31268.428283717.42575841541984
KABELVAG4568.212638914.48214911581961
BODO56267.288291914.39081291641984
ALESUND50962.46941386.15194611691961
BERGEN5860.39804465.32048701661920
OSLO6259.908557910.73451041661984
OSCARSBORG3359.678073910.60486131552011
KARACHI20424.811666566.97499851301979
MALAKAL-B12527.3333330134.46665952491998
BALBOA1638.9666672-79.56666561321989
MANILA-S-HARBOR14514.5833330120.96666721482008
MURMANSK68468.966667233.04999921341989
UST-KARA60069.250000064.51667021712013
VISE-VISE-OSTROV70479.500000076.98332981751991
DIKSON61173.500000080.40000152731990
SOPOCHNAIA-KARGA91771.866668782.69999691911967
IZVESTIA-TSIK-IZVESTIA-TSIK-OSTROVA72875.949996982.94999692031975
STERLEGOVA-STERLEGOVA-MYS61275.416664188.90000152251967
KOTELNYI-KOTELNYI-OSTROV64176.0000000137.86666873981995
SANNIKOVA-SANNIKOVA-PROLIV60274.6666641138.89999391861997
KIGILIAH64273.3333359139.86666871641967
PEVEK60669.6999969170.25000001881967
TUAPSE21544.099998539.06666562221922
NAGAEVO82759.5499992150.71665951882005
SANTANDER-I48543.4612999-3.79080011491947
LA-CORUNA-I48443.3685989-8.39774991381956
KUNGSVIK211358.996666011.12722211322011
SMOGEN17958.353611011.21777821731992
STENUNGSUND211258.093334211.83250051301996
KLAGSHAMN33055.522220612.89361102741991
SIMRISHAMN210755.557498914.35777761501996
KUNGSHOLMSFORT7056.105278015.58944421731952
OSKARSHAMN210657.275001516.47805601861996
OLANDS-NORRA-UDDE6957.366111817.09722141651900
VISBY210557.639167818.28444481911996
MARVIKEN210458.553611816.83722112001996
STOCKHOLM7859.324165318.08166692011996
FORSMARK210360.408611318.21083262101996
SPIKARNA121162.363334717.53111082161996
RATAN8863.986110720.89500052311961
FURUOGRUND20364.915832521.23055652331939
KALIX210165.696945223.09611131952011
KO-TAPHAO-NOI4467.833333098.43333442941981
FORT-PHRACHULA-CHOMKLAO-POM-PHRACHUN44413.5500002100.58333591431967
HOLYHEAD553.3139458-4.62044381581960
SAND-POINT-POPOF-IS-AK163455.3366661-160.50166321291989
ANCHORAGE106761.2383347-149.88999941311968
SELDOVIA107059.4399986-151.72000121421989
SEWARD26660.1199989-149.42666631301989
SKAGWAY49559.4500008-135.32666021301989
ASTORIA-TONGUE-POINT26546.2066689-123.76833341431948
CRESCENT-CITY37841.7449989-124.18166351351984
SAN-FRANCISCO1037.8066673-122.46499631461984
ALAMEDA-NAVAL-AIR-STATION43737.7716675-122.29833221491984
GALVESTON-II-PIER-21-TX16129.3099995-94.79333501481976
WASHINGTON-DC36038.8733330-77.02166751531996

(Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 51). Those figures are from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL).

The first two columns on the table above, "Station Name, Number" equate to "Station Name, ID" on the list of tide gauge stations around the world covered by PSMSL at the link just above.
Writing Scientific Papers

You can look them up on the PSMSL website, by clicking on the PSMSL (Station) ID column using the same unique station number/id.

III. The Sources

At footnote 4 in the ill advised paper, they cite to a paper by author Dr. Eric Rignot (see video below).

He is a professor and scientist who has studied, for decades, the glaciers of the world along with the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.

Anthropogenic Global Warming increases SLR
He is also is one of the authors in the recent paper that says a 10 foot SLR could take place by 2050 (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion, 2, 3).

The year 2050 is fifty years earlier than the goofy estimate in today's subject paper, the goofy Inhofe Research Award paper.

Ten feet of potential SLR by 2050 is orders of magnitude more SLR than their paper indicates.

IV. Conclusion

Perhaps the authors of the goofy Inhofe Research Award paper are seeking a job working for Oil-Qaeda (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder, 2, 3) ?

The next post in this series is here.
A discussion about ice shelves vs. ice sheets by Dr. Eric Rignot, Phd.:

15:29 when the ice shelf "Larsen A" collapsed the entire glacier's flow speed toward the sea increased ...
18:50 "Larsen B" ice shelf collapse caused the same thing ... the entire glacier's flow accelerated toward the sea ...
19:30 when the ice shelf goes away so does the restraint on the glacier, and they then move faster, 8 times faster, toward the sea
27:15 the East Antarctica Totten Glacier basin contains about as much ice as all of Western Antarctica, and it is destabilizing
30:30 the condition of the ice shelf controls what happens to the ice sheet


A discussion of, among other things, SLC as impacted by ice sheet mass and gravity:


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5 comments:

  1. RandyNovember 19, 2015 at 9:02 AM

    Scientists who read Dredd Blog do it better.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousNovember 19, 2015 at 2:24 PM

    HAAAA-HAAAAAAAAAAAAA!! GREAT JOB, Dredd!

    Scientific reticence and sea level rise

    http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002/fulltext/;jsessionid=DBCE0EC1ED6722D8253F47195A5AB462.c1.iopscience.cld.iop.org

    J E Hansen
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA

    Published 24 May 2007

    Tom

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousNovember 20, 2015 at 7:21 AM

    here ya go, yet another DENIER in high places, making DEADLY policy:

    Friday, 20 November 2015
    NZ government denies sea level rise
    NZ Govt dismisses warning of rising sea level
    English says threat ‘speculative’ and impact uncertain

    http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2015/11/nz-government-denies-sea-level-rise.html

    The Government has dismissed one of the key recommendations in a report on rising sea levels despite a warning that 9000 homes around New Zealand are sitting precariously close to the high water mark.

    Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Jan Wright took the rare step of making a specific warning to the Finance Minister in her latest report on the threat of rising oceans driven by climate change.

    The commissioner said the Government needed to start preparing for the huge potential cost of higher sea levels, which could lead to damage of between $3 billion and $20 billion in replacing buildings alone.

    Finance Minister Bill English immediately said he would not be taking up the recommendation. Sea level rises were just one of several risks, he said, and would not specifically be factored into the Government's planning decisions about infrastructure.

    He described the commissioner's findings as "speculative" and said there were still many uncertainties about the potential impacts of rising oceans.

    [so much for "erring on the side of caution!"]

    Tom

    ReplyDelete
  4. RandyNovember 20, 2015 at 9:48 AM

    Tom,

    Sounds like the Inhofe cult is doing some evangelizing.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousNovember 20, 2015 at 10:02 AM

    Heh, yeah Randy, i think teh stupid is contagious (lemming mentality)!

    Tom

    ReplyDelete

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