Monday, November 16, 2015

The Evolution of Models - 15

Fig. 1 Boston
I have fused part of a new database into the Dredd Blog SLC model from (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO).
Fig. 2 Charleston II

Fig. 3 Chesapeake Bay Bridge & Tunnel
CSIRO has global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) data which they have collected and compiled, beginning in 1880 and going on nearly to the present.

As I indicated earlier today, in a comment on another post, the purpose of this CSIRO data is not just to give a glimpse of what scientists are talking about when they use that purely mathematical term.

No, in addition to that, Dredd Blog readers can actually see and compare the difference between the real and the mere mathematical concept.

Yes, Dredd Blog readers are the ones who are seeing the actual sea level rise (SLR) numbers at a given PSMSL tide gauge station, as well as the mathematical concept science writers and scientists write and talk about all the time.

But, generally they do not completely explain the term GMSLR when they are expounding upon very important sea level change (SLC) developments.
Fig. 4 San Francisco

Since I do not have the coding completely finished yet, I am showing some model print outs only as they relate to the actual historical data of several tide gauge stations.

IOW "just the facts ma'am ..."  (no pre-1880, and no future projections of GMSLR this time).

The GMSLR at any given year is the same in each graphic, because I splice the historical data into the compilation of a particular station according to that station's beginning year and its most recent year.

The importance of actual SLR data may not be understood by those who do not have to have it right.

To get what I mean by that, think of your self as an architect or engineer working on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and Tunnel (see Fig. 3).
Fig. 5 Santa Monica

Fig. 6 Washington, D.C.
Would you rather build the project based on the GMSLR averaged data, or on the actual data from the tide gauge stations in the area?

I mean in order to avoid a lifetime of lawsuits along with the ruination of your reputation.

Yes, I know that was a rhetorical question, because we all know that we need "the real thing baby."

The world that we Americans live in now threatens the very foundation of all we thought we knew, as well as all we have presumed (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

In Fig. 6 we see that the monuments and what not, which our founders built, are now part of the endangered world of both civilization and environment.

As SLR creeps up toward, then to eventually stay above, that mean old global average, and then begins to work its way toward downtown, we will have Peak Reaction.

In closing, let me say that the environment has done nothing to bring about the Sixth Mass Extinction we all now face.

That has been left to civilization itself to bring about, seeing as how it has thousand of years of experience:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History,  by Arnold J. Toynbee
"Stay safe" was once a useful term, but it too seems to be going extinct.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

1 comment:

  1. Hittin' home now, Dredd! Like with Guy's message, once this becomes common knowledge, people are going to freak out, land values (and home prices) in the effected vicinity will plummet and mass relocation will begin (to where?).