Sunday, November 15, 2015

The Fingerprints of Victims Matter - 2

 Fig. 1 The Golden 487 (click to enlarge)
In the series (Calling All Cars: The Case of the "Missing Six", 2, 3) I discussed "the twenty some odd" stations.

Those 21-23+ stations are used by some sea level scientists to create a sea level change (SLC) "fingerprint" (Fig. 2).

The full list of those few stations could not be determined exactly, so today I offer the Dredd Blog Thumbprint (Fig. 1), a replacement of the lightweight "golden twenty some odd."
 Fig. 2 The Golden Twenty Some Odd

The Dredd Blog Thumbprint (DBT) is the "fingerprinting" of 487 tide gauge stations, or as I like to call it, "the most important digit".

The DBT is in the interest of all of the victims of the world who constantly hear "global mean average."

But, we victims of the world rarely, if ever, hear what "global mean average" means to us at our particular location on the good planet Earth (The Fingerprints of Victims Matter).

 Fig. 3 (click to enlarge)
Let's do a quick perusal of Fig. 1 and add some additional value to it.

The red line is the global mean average of all 487 stations, which is a value of 7052 "RLR" millimeters (Revised Local Reference Definition).

I have placed some station numbers in rectangular boxes at some high and low points on the 487 tide gauge station locations on the graph (Fig. 1).

That is sufficient to get my point across, if you will note that Station #1593 is at 1036 mm, or 3.4 ft. above the global mean average (8088 - 7052 = 1036; 1036÷304.8 = 3.39895 ft. = 3.4 ft).
 Fig. 4 (click to enlarge)

Then note that Station #563 is at 973 mm, or 3.2 ft below the global mean average (7052 - 6079 = 973; 973÷304.8 = 3.19225 = 3.2 ft.).

So, when most media figures and all too many scientists talk about the global mean average, it is meaningless to local people who do not realize the import of 1 m / 3 ft. on any sea ports near them (see Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

In the video below, Dr. Rignot points out how the scientific dialogue between scientists and non-scientists "really sucks," in terms of being effective at getting the dangerous message across.

Anyway, Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 are a modified view of the "Golden 487" stations of the new, and soon to be infamous, Dredd Blog Thumbprint series.

Notice that Fig. 3 has the perspective of "mean high sea level" of all those stations, without any low sea levels, that is, it is the average of the high sea levels experienced at each station for as long as that station has kept records.

Comparing that mean high to the "global mean average," we see that most stations have a mean high mark that is above the global mean average all of the time.

Ditto for Fig. 4, except that it is the mean low average for each station for as long as that station has kept records.

Again, comparing that mean average low to the "global mean average," we see that most stations have a mean low mark that is below the global mean average all of the time.

The better technique, then, is for meteorologists, oceanographers, and other scientists to give local information whenever possible, instead of global averages all the time.

The status quo dialogue between science writers and the public is simply not a good way of doing scientific business with the public, as Dr. Rignot points out:
01:00 It may be a little bit of a shock to some people in [the scientific] community ...

01:25 I think that the [scientific] community is very conservative [translation: always underestimating] with time scales.

01:40 the research shows that we are looking at time scales that are shorter than what past and current models depict

02:50 How do we communicate this to the public? I don't know, but we aren't doing a good job at that. I think most of the scientists are not trained for that ... I'm trying to learn ... I talked to people from the digital media and they say we [in the scientific community] really suck at it ... they said 'you are not doing it right.'
(Paraphrased from the video below). By the way, the Dredd Blog thumbprints all indicate that the melting ice. which is threatening civilization, all comes from one source: anthropogenic global warming induced SLC caused by burning dirty fossil fuels (Keep It In The Ground).

The previous post in this series is here.

1. No microscope needed on those thumb prints.

2. Good science presentation. I'm amazed how Dredd gathers so much info, graphics, clips, etc so often? Do you have a small staff? Excellent work on a regular basis.

M. Austin working on report for Monday morning brief:

Most of the Defense Department's work on high-powered microwave weapons takes place at Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, N.M..

"We are looking at different sources and devices that can produce that microwave energy and propel it," said Rich Garcia, a spokesman for the project where nearly all of the work is classified.

Researchers also are exploring ways to block incoming high-powered microwave weapons. That will require something of a super surge protector, experts point out, because the blasts are so intense and brief they can escape detection.

The former Soviet Union once was deeply involved in exploring high-powered microwave weapons, but it is now thought Russia is no longer pursuing them. Other nations believed to be conducting research are China, Great Britain and France.

1. Anonymous,

The data I use are available to the public from PSMSL (I generally link to that source in the posts).

I use a mySQL server and mySQL client for organizing that data into a useful structure.

Then, I write C++ programs, modules, and models to gather the data and then conform it to serve various purposes (sea level rise, sea level fall, sea level change), both historically and likely future developments.

Today, I am fusing some CSIRO global mean average sea level data I downloaded.

It spans the years from 1880 to the present.

It is a tiny amount of data to add to the system but it will add a great contrast.

That way I can graph it in the same graph when I do local projections (e.g. NYC, Boston, Philly, DC, Charleston, Miami, San Francisco, Houston, etc. etc.) so as to bolster my point about being careful with global mean averages.

Projecting multiple local PSMSL tide gauge records makes the reality of our predicament more visible.