Saturday, November 18, 2017

Oceans: Abstract Values vs. Measured Values - 2

Fig. 1 Getting closer
On the heels of yesterday's revelations about our WOD Datasets not matching the expected patterns of ocean temperature increases, I tasked myself with finding a properly balanced list of WOD zones that would more accurately reflect a balanced ocean temperature pattern.

The lower right pane of the graph at Fig. 1 shows an ocean water temperature increase of almost one degree C, which is more in line with the GISS Anomaly of one degree C, and the abstract Conservative Temperature (CT) increase of about one degree C in the upper right pane.

The problem that was solved is shown in the bottom left pane of Fig. 1, which is that using all measurements in all WOD Zones generated a false scenario for the years 1968 - 2016.

To find a proper balance, I resorted to Dredd Blog's past "layered approach" for selecting appropriate candidates for making up the list (The Layered Approach To Big Water, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
Fig. 2 WOD Golden layers (5, 7-10, 12) ?

Layers are better suited for selecting ocean measurements because a layer goes all the way across the globe at a given latitude (Fig. 2).

This means there will be a better global concentration of measurements to work with.

Remember that scientists have to have funding to go out with sophisticated equipment to the middle zones of the oceans, far from land; or to go to many other difficult venues.

Thus, measurements for hard to get to areas tend to be less available for our use.

I am currently using the six layers shown in (Fig. 2) for accessing all of the in situ WOD temperature, salinity, and depth measurements that are being compared to the abstract calculations (Fig. 1).

These six layers will be the "Golden Layers" as I proceed with version 1.3 of the module.

That upgrade will include the abstract and measured Thermal Expansion analysis graphs (thermosteric volume & sea level change).

Previous ocean temperature, etc. graphs have used only the "Golden 23" ensemble of WOD Zones, which was originally grouped in order to solve some sea level change imbalances.

As it turns out, what is a balanced configuration for tide gauge stations is not necessarily a balanced configuration for deep ocean measurements.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Once a denier, this scientist discusses "selection bias" and why he is no longer a denier:



1 comment:

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