On The Evolution of Sea Level Change - 2

Toxic Road to SLR

I. First, A Few Quotes

"As the ocean warms, the density decreases and thus even at constant mass the volume of the ocean increases. This thermal expansion (or steric sea level rise) occurs at all ocean temperatures and is one of the major contributors to sea level changes during the 20th and 21st centuries" (IPCC).

"About half of the past century's rise in sea level is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space" (National Geographic).

"Rising temperatures are warming ocean waters, which expand as the temperature increases. This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution" (Union of Concerned Scientists)..

" ... global sea level rises 0.26 m by 2100, and 0.56 m by 2199 through steric [thermal] expansion; " (Journal of Physical Oceanography, PDF).

II. The Commonality In Those Quotes

What is common about those ideas?

Fig. 2

For one thing, they are wrong!

That is why I put "so much effort" into showing just that (see "SEA LEVEL CHANGE", over 100 posts in four separate sections @ the Series Posts Tabs here or here (@ top of page).

One way to "see" sea level rise (SLR) when one is actually looking at sea level fall (SLF), such as in the centuries long record shown in Fig. 2, is to hold the graph upside down.

Time to flip it right side up folks.

There are many instances of long-kept records that show SLF in other locations (Proof of Concept - 3, 5).

Magic thermal expansion has nothing to do with those 19th, 20th, and 21st century realities of SLF.

III. A Few Dredd Blog Quotes

"This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill—the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill—you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Remember: all I'm offering is the truth. Nothing more" (Redpill - The Matrix).

Just kidding.

The focus here on Dredd Blog has been to point out why many researchers don't see what is in plain sight (The Ghost-Water Constant - 4).

IV. Graphic Portrayals

The quotes in Section I at the beginning of this post should make the academic reality absolutely obvious.

I mean the reality where researchers think that steric, thermal expansion has historically been the major factor in SLC, and the reality that some probably think it still is.

Fig. 3

In the post associated with Fig. 2, it was shown that Greenland has been disintegrating since about two decades after the onset of the Industrial Revolution circa 1750 (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 54, On The Evolution of Sea Level Change, Questionable "Scientific" Papers - 3).

Fig. 4

That disintegration, melting, and calving, not thermal expansion, is a major source of SLF (Fig. 2) as discussed in Proof of Concept - 3, just as Glacier Bay is a major source of SLF as discussed in Proof of Concept - 5.

Anyway, on to the graphs at Fig. 3 through Fig. 8.

Regular readers will recall that yesterday I posted some graphs concerning the historical record of temperatures and sea levels from tide gauge stations and weather stations around the globe (Proof of Concept - 8).

Fig. 5

Some readers may not have sufficiently grasped what was being displayed.

Fig. 6

So, in the interest of the Dredd Blog readership, I have gone over some of those graphs, adding comments on them.

Fig. 7

I did that to help further elaborate on the obviously important topic of thermal expansion, temperature history, and how it relates to SLC history.

If you did not fully grasp yesterday's graphs, review Fig. 3 though Fig. 8.

Fig. 8

Then, if need be, revisit yesterday's post because it is quite helpful in terms of showing the disparity gap between temperature change and SLC in a historical context.

It is so important that I am going to repeat data from a previous post.

It is a review of the basic concepts which are incorrectly stated in the quote in Section I of today's post.

That quote is "thermal expansion (or steric sea level rise) occurs at all ocean temperatures".

That is incorrect, so, we now review some basics from The Warming Science Commentariat - 2.

V. Conclusion

This post is getting long, so I will close for today.

I hope readers understand that I am only trying to shake some researchers out of a common trance we have all been in at one time or another (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3).

We all know that falling asleep at the wheel is not worthwhile.

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