The Saturation Chronicles - 21

Fig. 1 View From The Air?

The predictions for an increase in global air temperatures late this year or early next year are getting a lot of attention.

What specifically is going to cause it is not mentioned nearly as often even though we could consider whether the cause is thermohaline, El Nino, or perhaps even ocean heat Saturation?

A recent post here on Dredd Blog points out some growing criticism of the thermohaline current hypothesis:

"The mid-depth ocean circulation is critically linked to actual changes in the long-term global climate system. However, in the past few decades, predictions based on ocean circulation models highlight the lack of data, knowledge, and long-term implications in climate change assessment. Here, using 842,421 observations produced by Argo floats from 2001-2020, and Lagrangian simulations, we show that only 3.8% of the mid-depth oceans, including part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, can be regarded as accurately modelled, while other regions exhibit significant underestimations in mean current velocity. Knowledge of ocean circulation is generally more complete in the low-latitude oceans but is especially poor in high latitude regions. Accordingly, we propose improvements in forecasting, model representation of stochasticity, and enhancement of observations of ocean currents. The study demonstrates that knowledge and model representations of global circulation are substantially compromised by inaccuracies of significant magnitude and direction, with important implications for modelled predictions of currents, temperature, carbon dioxide sequestration, and sea-level rise trends."

(AMOC Or A Mock? - 7, quoting journal Nature). Dr. James Hansen speaks of it but indicates that global warming is happening whether the specific predicted event happens as predicted or not:

"Models are converging on prediction of an El Nino beginning this year, peaking in early 2027. After overlooking the possibility of an El Nino this year, some reporting is jumping on a “Super El Nino” bandwagon. El Nino strength and frequency are important, especially the issue of whether these are modified by global warming. However, the more important knowledge that needs to be extracted from near-term global warming concerns interpretation of ongoing, extraordinary, acceleration of ocean surface warming."

(Super Warming is the Main Issue). In other words, the segmented approach focuses on a small-by-comparison area of the ocean, or a thermohaline current hypothesis of a "roadmap" that looks like a pop-science version of Highway 61.

Fig. 2 El Nino Territory?

Dr. Hansen suggests that we should not forget the big picture, which is that ocean heat content includes all of the global ocean.

So, focusing on the whole picture, the whole ocean is the preferred approach.

Nevertheless, to consider the validity or non-validity of segmented approaches one must consider those hypotheses as they are stated.

Today's appendices take a look at the area ostensibly the locale of the "Super El Nino", but in a more exact location "map" (see the red "rectangle" shape, Fig. 2) which includes at least the data area indicated in Fig. 1.

Sixty WOD zones were probed for temperature, salinity, latitude, longitude, depth, etc., with which to calculate potential enthalpy as well as mol counts (equivalent quantity of infrared photons) using the TEOS-10 C++  library.

Today's appendices include line graphs and HTML tables of that data (annual averages) by depthin those 60 WOD zones.

Appendix Graphs details data in two graphs while the other appendices provide the relevant data in HTML tables:

HTML 1 (Zones: 1013, 1014, 1015, 1016, 1017, 1113, 1114, 1115, 1116, 1117)

HTML 2 (Zones: 3015, 3016, 3017, 3113, 3114, 3115, 3116, 3117)

HTML 3 (Zones: 5007, 5008, 5009, 5010, 5011, 5012, 5013, 5014, 5015, 5016, 5017)

HTML 4 (Zones: 5107, 5108, 5109, 5110, 5111, 5112, 5113, 5114, 5115, 5116, 5117)

HTML 5 (Zones: 7007, 7008, 7009, 7010, 7011, 7012, 7013, 7014, 7015, 7016, 7017)

HTML 6 (Zones: 7109, 7110, 7111, 7112, 7113, 7114, 7115, 7116, 7117)

The HTML tables include year, depth span in meters, WOD depth number (0-32), h^o (potential enthalpy) per kg, and mol quantity per kg.

Closing Comments

"Saturation" (in photon dynamics) in the ocean is governed by the laws of thermodynamics, and primarily the second law of thermodynamics ("hot flows to cold").

One important issue is the overarching principle of equilibrium, which is equality of heat energy content between two adjacent realms.

Specifically, the Second Law of Thermodynamics as applied to molecules in seawater is that the spontaneous radiation of infrared photons from molecules of warmer water to cooler water has a "direction" component.

That direction is toward the "cooler" (less energy) molecules in the relevant surrounding environment which will absorb radiated infrared photons.

That type of event will continue until heat content equilibrium in that relevant environment is reached.

The lines on the two graphs in Appendix Graphs indicate the trail of photons over the years flowing from warmer ocean water to cooler ocean water.

After reviewing the graphs and HTML tables, I adhere to the ocean heat saturation hypothesis as explained previously in this series (The Saturation Chronicles, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 , 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20).

The previous post in this series is here.