The Saturation Chronicles - 11

World Ocean Database Layers

I. Background

Regular readers will note that this series is presented in the context of a hypothesis.

That hypothesis was presented along with the description of what would falsify the hypothesis:

"I suspect that ocean heat saturation is a cause of the surprising temperature accelerations of 2023 and 2024" - The Saturation Chronicles - 3 ...

"if the hypothesis is confirmed, we can expect the surprising 2023-2024 temperature increases to continue as the ocean's in situ heat saturation percentage rate increases" ... The Saturation Chronicles - 5 ...

But remember that this is all presented in the framework of a Dredd Blog hypothesis.

Also remember that science based hypotheses must be presented along with a way of falsifying them.

Otherwise they are not "up to snuff" (Proof of Concept - 11).

This brings up the World Ocean Database manual's maximum in situ temperature and maximum salinity settings for each depth which were set forth in a previous post of this series: 

"The HTML tables have a column that shows the WOD manual's maximum (h^o) at each relevant depth level (WOD Manual) [Appendix 11]".

Those [h^o] maximum values are calculated from the manual's maximum temperature and salinity values (The Saturation Chronicles - 2).

If for some reason those World Ocean Database maximum parameters, which come from www ncei noaa gov, are not "up to snuff" (too small or too large), then that would possibly falsify all or part of the Dredd Blog saturation hypothesis to the extent that the WOD parameters are too large or too small.

But any alleged falsification effort would have to not only challenge those parameters, it would have to add a replacement and the replacement's source" - The Saturation Chronicles - 6

In other words, since scientists of high repute have said "we don't know" why global temperature records now indicate an acceleration, this hypothesis is not a rebellious "who cares what the scientists say" moment.

It is simply a study of the in situ measurements stored in the World Ocean Database.

The reason for the falsification technique is that the better type of hypothesizing is to do that:

"Popper proposed falsifiability as the cornerstone solution to both the problem of induction and the problem of demarcation. He insisted that, as a logical criterion, his falsifiability is distinct from the related concept 'capacity to be proven wrong' discussed in Lakatos's falsificationism. Even being a logical criterion, its purpose is to make the theory predictive and testable, and thus useful in practice."

(Wikipedia, Falsifiability). So, on with the show.

II. New News

I read a paper in Environmental Research Letters, Volume 20,Number 4, which indicates:

"Rising greenhouse gas concentrations and declining global aerosol emissions are causing energy to accumulate in Earth's climate system at an increasing rate. Incomplete understanding of increases in Earth's energy imbalance and ocean warming reduces the capability to accurately prepare for near term climate change and associated impacts. Here, satellite-based observations of Earth's energy budget and ocean surface temperature are combined with the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis over 1985–2024 to improve physical understanding of changes in Earth's net energy imbalance and resulting ocean surface warming. A doubling of Earth's energy imbalance from 0.6±0.2 Wm−2 in 2001–2014 to 1.2±0.2 Wm−2 in 2015–2023 is primarily explained by increases in absorbed sunlight related to cloud-radiative effects over the oceans. Observed increases in absorbed sunlight are not fully captured by ERA5 and determined by widespread decreases in reflected sunlight by cloud over the global ocean. Strongly contributing to reduced reflection of sunlight are the Californian and Namibian stratocumulus cloud regimes, but also recent Antarctic sea ice decline in the Weddell Sea and Ross Sea. An observed increase in near-global ocean annual warming by 0.1 for each 1 Wm−2 increase in Earth's energy imbalance is identified over an interannual time-scale (2000–2023). This is understood in terms of a simple ocean mixed layer energy budget only when assuming no concurrent response in heat flux below the mixed layer. Based on this simple energy balance approach and observational evidence, the large observed near-global ocean surface warming of 0.27  from 2022 to 2023 is found to be physically consistent with the large energy imbalance of 1.85±0.2 Wm−2 from August 2022 to July 2023 but only if (1) a reduced depth of the mixed layer is experiencing the heating or (2) there is a reversal in the direction of heat flux beneath the mixed layer associated with the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions. This new interpretation of the drivers of Earth's energy budget changes and their links to ocean warming can improve confidence in near term warming and climate projections."

(Reconciling Earth's growing energy imbalance with ocean warming, emphasis added). This is the first paper I have noticed which realizes that there is need-to-know seawater characteristics below 2000 meters ("This is understood in terms of a simple ocean mixed layer energy budget only when assuming no concurrent response in heat flux below the mixed layer ... but only if ... there is a reversal in the direction of heat flux beneath the mixed layer" - ibid).

Understanding the photon current is a prerequisite to accurate analysis of what's going on "down under you" in the >2,000 meters realm (The Photon Current, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 , 17, 18, 19, 20, 21).

III. New Slang

Today's appendices utilize WOD layer in situ measurements instead of ocean area in situ measurements as did those in the previous post of this series.

However, the individual layers are graphed (TSC APNDX LAYERS 1-8, TSC APNDX LAYERS 9-16) instead of all seventeen of them being averaged into one graph as in the previous post (The Saturation Chronicles - 10.

Note that the WOD zones containing in situ measurements were listed in one of that post's appendices here.

The individual layer approach brings all in situ measurements in all oceans into play, and is aligned with the solar intensities all the way up and down the globe to the Equator, which is between layer 8 and layer 9.

The graphs show increasing as well as decreasing saturation percentages depending on distance from the Equator and if course all depths except "the trenches" e.g The Mariana Trench.

This means, among other things, that saturation values differ from layer to layer because the solar impact at the entry point (the surface of the ocean) receives different energy values from layer to layer.

That energy is in the form of photons that move down into the ocean depths according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics (infrared photons flow from warmer water to colder water).

But, when a saturation resistance point is approached the quantity of moving photons diminishes as equilibrium approaches, and their direction of flow can also change if cooler water is laterally adjacent rather than below.

IV. Closing Comments

So, measuring the ocean temperature at any depth at any time is just like a snapshot taken by a camera of a moving object.

Which means that lots of measurements at lots of depths must be utilized to get a grasp of the larger picture.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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