Wednesday, November 16, 2016

The IPCC Record on Global Warming Temperature Projections - 3

Fig. 1 Golden 23 Zones
I. Background

This series deals with the difficult task of agreeing or disagreeing with the overly conservative and well known record of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (The IPCC Record on Global Warming Temperature Projections, 2).

The IPCC is a well known report, but fewer people know about another government climate change report required by federal law (Government Climate Change Report, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

Today I want to discuss a common scientific error that has led us astray for a century (Dr. Mitrovica).

That error makes its way into every climate change report which includes sea level change (at least every official report I know of).

For example, the promiscuous use of "global mean average sea level" (GMSL) is the error I am talking about (it's the mother of invention of "the bathtub model").

It is a problem because it is a gloss over, a pabulum, a fakery, and it confuses our leaders and others who only scratch the surface (Watch this law professor try to convince a member of congress that Greenland’s melt will cause seas to fall).

II. The Modeling Problem

It is also difficult to model future events with software (The Evolution of Models, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20).

Fig. 2 Variation in SLC
Niels Bohr, not Yogi Berra, made the statement: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

It is all the more difficult if your purpose is to reveal reality rather than to cover it up with utterly mythical global average mean sea level rise or fall.

It is important to tell bureaucratic agencies how high and for how long they need to add protection for property and lives in their unique jurisdiction, especially if all they know about is the bathtub model.

Should every jurisdiction design and build according to the mythical bathtub model's useless mythical bathtub ring?

No, those who are trying to build sea walls, move, deepen, and otherwise retrofit seaports, and otherwise cope with rising and falling sea levels, need more than a mythical quantity from a vision of a mythical bathtub (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 6).

III. The Graphs

So, today's graphs are chosen to show how the redistribution of water from melting and disintegrating ice sheets to far away places causes anything but a measurable global mean average sea level.

Fig. 3 More Variation
I wrote a software model that calculates future sea level change based on the PSMSL tide gauge stations records going back as far as several hundred years.

It is designed to use one or more WOD Zones, process all PSMSL tide gauge station historical records in those zones, then produce CSV files with which to graph the results.

I used the golden 23 tide gauge station zones as the baseline graph (Fig. 1), then applied the same software model to other tide gauge station historical records in other geographical areas (Fig. 2, Fig. 3, Fig. 4).

IV. Let's Get Real

If you show the officials, in various bureaucratic jurisdictions along the East Coast, the most sophisticated GMSL satellite data to indicate how they should build their sea walls, they will not get the picture.

They will not understand that this is not a problem to be solved with rubber duckies floating in one bathtub with one uniform level (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4 One Size Doesn't Fit All
They need to know what is happening within their sphere of influence and jurisdiction.

Especially when their reality is radically different from the satellite generated global mean average.

Their local sea level change projections need to be calculated with actual, real, and ongoing measurements at their geographical location (in the first video below, Col. Wilkerson points out how jurisdictions near each other in Virginia came up with noticeably different plans).

They will not be amused if they rely on the GMSL to build a 100 mm sea wall that is breached in a year or two (Fig. 4).

V. Conclusion

People in government will do just about anything to avoid being seen as utterly silly and ignorant.

I am reminded of those working on the vast seawall barrier in New Orleans who recently found themselves homeless.

Their homes were deluged with a damaged climate system event that inundated vast numbers of homes on the wrong side of the vast seawall barrier (Tens of thousands in Louisiana seek FEMA aid following devastating floods).

Those workers watched what were, seemingly, innocuous clouds floating over them as they worked on the $14.5 billion (so far) mother of all protective walls (The ‘Great Wall’ of New Orleans).

They were soon to find out that the vast seawall barrier fell short, because "change" does not mean "doing the same thing."

The previous post in this series is here.

"We ordered the Marines out of New Orleans ..." - Professor Wilkerson (paraphrased)


  1. It's unbelievable how dumbed down and delirious modern society is - 'no one' (meaning the great mass of humanity) questions ANYTHING! The fact that it's near 80 in the middle of the U.S. in the middle of November, or that recently SAND DUNES were on fire in coastal New Zealand - they're all just anomalies (that keep happening), a blip in the nightly news (if you're lucky to ever even hear about any of it).

    2016-11-04 - Sand dunes erupt in flame at beach in the Ocean View area in coastal Dunedin (New Zealand), homes evacuated:

    Quote: "Police are evacuating homes in the coastal Dunedin suburb of Ocean View after a fire broke out on nearby sand dunes."

    Blogs like yours that tell the truth about our current state of affairs are just too much for many people to handle - they don't want to believe it and hope that if they ignore it, it'll just go away. And of course these changes are occurring "faster than expected," and "scientists are baffled" or "surprised."

    Keep up the good work, Dredd.


    1. The kiwi news didn't say what they think caused the fire break-outs on the sand dunes that lasted a short time and did no damage to buildings.

      The earthquake seems to be the meaningful story.

  2. Clue: Professor Wilkinson's video is the big picture if anyone is interested.