Ice Sheet Melt According To Tide Gauge Stations - 2

Fig. 1 SLF is proportional to Gravity Loss

In the previous post I argued for re-consideration as to how we should calculate ice sheet mass loss.

The way to deal with sea level fall (SLF) is, in the main, to depart from traditional "bathtub model" thinking (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2, 3, 4, 5).

The way I see it is that combining sea level rise (SLR) and SLF together then dividing by two is not the way to correctly determine average global sea level characteristics when dealing with tide gauge station data.

As I see it, using in situ measurements of SLF at tide gauge stations offers a way to determine gravity loss and ice mass loss because SLF is, in the main, caused by gravity loss which is caused by a loss of ice mass.

Newton's formula F = G(m1 * m2 / r²), (where "G" is the gravitational constant)

Fig. 2 SLC per Tide Gauges

relates mass and gravitational force "F" together.

The graph at Fig. 1 shows the proportional relation and pattern SLF has with loss of gravity.

The crux of the matter is that the SLR and SLF that we are talking about (when we are considering tide gauge records) are marks or indications on tide gauge records over a period of up to three hundred years.

When we combine the values of those marks in a manner that in effect moves those marks up or down, we are disturbing reality with falsehoods.

Fig. 3 The Gravity of Sea Level Change

The marks are records of in situ events, actual reality, and facts that are not to be toyed with like toy rubber ducks in a bathtub.

The graph at Fig. 2 shows cumulated SLR and SLF patterns as they were marked over the years.

If you average them together into a relatively flat line, that averaging does not change the actual lines made by the sea's level on those tide gauges over the centuries.

Fig. 4 From The Hill

So why toy with unreality?

Why move the marks made on tide gauges in Greenland up and move the marks made on tide gauges in Argentina down by averaging them together (Fig. 3)?

The actual in situ measurements depicted in Fig. 3 show SLF at Greenland becoming lower and lower on the tide gauge as ice sheet gravity diminishes.

But, the actual in situ measurements depicted in Fig. 3 show SLR at Argentina going up and up as the ghost water is relocated from the Greenland coastline and surrounds to the South Atlantic off Argentina.

Fig. 5 There's been a lot of ice melt

Averaging the values of those two records of marks on tide gauge instruments does not move them from where they have always been in reality.

This tide gauge realm is not the realm of models, it is the realm of actual measurements (The World According To Measurements, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21).

Speaking of tables and measurements, I said I would provide a table from which the values in the first post were derived ("In the next post I will furnish the 1809 - 2018 Table ...").

In the previous post those values were compared with the values of a couple of very recent and valuable published papers that were analyzed in the first post of this series (Ice Sheet Melt According To Tide Gauge Stations).

Here is the table I promised (it indicates a lot of ice melt like Fig. 4 - Fig. 5 do):

---

Year	SLR	SLF	SLR GT	Ghost Water GT	Ice Loss & Ghost Water GT	Gravity Loss [F = G(m1 m2 / r2)]
1809	86.79	0	31,404.2	0	31,404.2	0
1810	79.04	0	28,599.9	0	28,599.9	0
1811	108.91	0	39,408.1	0	39,408.1	0
1812	105.29	-24.84	38,098.2	6.7068	38,104.9	-4.47632
1813	39.185	0	14,178.7	0	14,178.7	0
1814	74.75	-26.54	27,047.6	7.1658	27,054.8	-4.78267
1815	58.25	-27.08	21,077.2	7.3116	21,084.5	-4.87998
1816	91.12	-0.25	32,970.9	0.0675	32,971	-0.0450515
1817	79.5	0	28,766.4	0	28,766.4	0
1818	97.37	-17	35,232.5	4.59	35,237	-3.0635
1819	73.45	-16.34	26,577.2	4.4118	26,581.6	-2.94457
1820	21.265	0	7,694.55	0	7,694.55	0
1821	66.79	0	24,167.4	0	24,167.4	0
1822	103.345	0	37,394.5	0	37,394.5	0
1823	55.665	0	20,141.9	0	20,141.9	0
1824	53.435	0	19,335	0	19,335	0
1825	63.995	0	23,156	0	23,156	0
1826	37.29	-63.46	13,493	17.1342	13,510.2	-11.4359
1827	29	-3.63	10,493.4	0.9801	10,494.4	-0.654148
1828	65.685	0	23,767.5	0	23,767.5	0
1829	67.08	-4.46	24,272.3	1.2042	24,273.5	-0.803719
1830	53.16	-5.04	19,235.5	1.3608	19,236.8	-0.908239
1831	113	-30.67	40,888	8.2809	40,896.3	-5.52692
1832	28.29	-40.71	10,236.5	10.9917	10,247.5	-7.33619
1833	56.71	-25.275	20,520	6.82425	20,526.8	-4.55471
1834	48.78	0	17,650.6	0	17,650.6	0
1835	14.04	-17.86	5,080.25	4.8222	5,085.07	-3.21848
1836	31.62	-6.26	11,441.4	1.6902	11,443.1	-1.12809
1837	0	-12.365	0	3.33855	3.33855	-2.22825
1838	0	-42.55	0	11.4885	11.4885	-7.66777
1839	0	-48.72	0	13.1544	13.1544	-8.77964
1840	0	-19.62	0	5.2974	5.2974	-3.53564
1841	0	-23.385	0	6.31395	6.31395	-4.21412
1842	0	-43.265	0	11.6815	11.6815	-7.79662
1843	29.75	-20.36	10,764.8	5.4972	10,770.3	-3.669
1844	61.46	-14.805	22,238.7	3.99735	22,242.7	-2.66795
1845	12.04	-9.51	4,356.57	2.5677	4,359.13	-1.71376
1846	59.3567	-32.78	21,477.7	8.8506	21,486.5	-5.90716
1847	73.79	-30.7767	26,700.2	8.3097	26,708.6	-5.54614
1848	53.255	-66.795	19,269.8	18.0347	19,287.9	-12.0369
1849	32.1633	-41.69	11,638	11.2563	11,649.3	-7.51279
1850	41.14	-39.82	14,886.1	10.7514	14,896.9	-7.17581
1851	24.0367	-22.095	8,697.45	5.96565	8,703.42	-3.98165
1852	58.0167	-67.335	20,992.8	18.1805	21,011	-12.1342
1853	104.91	-60.9767	37,960.7	16.4637	37,977.2	-10.9884
1854	41.8267	-51.75	15,134.6	13.9725	15,148.6	-9.32567
1855	28.8333	-70.05	10,433.1	18.9135	10,452	-12.6234
1856	52.21	-53.46	18,891.7	14.4342	18,906.2	-9.63382
1857	58.935	-73.8167	21,325.1	19.9305	21,345	-13.3022
1858	16.12	-57.67	5,832.88	15.5709	5,848.45	-10.3925
1859	52.86	-61.19	19,126.9	16.5213	19,143.4	-11.0268
1860	74.68	-67.2657	27,022.3	18.1617	27,040.4	-12.1217
1861	28.53	-77.7175	10,323.3	20.9837	10,344.3	-14.0052
1862	78.08	-62.8014	28,252.5	16.9564	28,269.5	-11.3172
1863	50.676	-49.226	18,336.7	13.291	18,349.9	-8.87083
1864	20.96	-58.5614	7,584.19	15.8116	7,600	-10.5531
1865	84.08	-65.8189	30,423.6	17.7711	30,441.4	-11.861
1866	57.37	-61.4467	20,758.8	16.5906	20,775.4	-11.0731
1867	85.3443	-34.3814	30,881.1	9.28299	30,890.3	-6.19574
1868	59.3057	-29.4033	21,459.2	7.9389	21,467.2	-5.29866
1869	46.6538	-38.8267	16,881.2	10.4832	16,891.7	-6.9968
1870	47.1	-76.2785	17,042.7	20.5952	17,063.3	-13.7458
1871	74.125	-87.3315	26,821.5	23.5795	26,845	-15.7377
1872	120.873	-96.6158	43,736.9	26.0863	43,763	-17.4108
1873	48.9733	-43.4509	17,720.6	11.7317	17,732.3	-7.83012
1874	35.287	-76.0633	12,768.3	20.5371	12,788.8	-13.7071
1875	47.795	-128.864	17,294.2	34.7934	17,329	-23.2221
1876	47.69	-81.9115	17,256.2	22.1161	17,278.3	-14.761
1877	52.241	-68.7029	18,902.9	18.5498	18,921.5	-12.3807
1878	65.4791	-29.0814	23,693	7.85199	23,700.9	-5.24065
1879	64.75	-64.885	23,429.2	17.519	23,446.7	-11.6927
1880	48.812	-53.599	17,662.2	14.4717	17,676.7	-9.65887
1881	40.252	-61.8	14,564.8	16.686	14,581.5	-11.1367
1882	54.5817	-72.0606	19,749.9	19.4564	19,769.3	-12.9858
1883	45.5414	-77.4506	16,478.8	20.9117	16,499.7	-13.9571
1884	41.6642	-95.4367	15,075.8	25.7679	15,101.6	-17.1983
1885	45.436	-84.245	16,440.6	22.7462	16,463.4	-15.1815
1886	52.2757	-106.512	18,915.5	28.7584	18,944.3	-19.1942
1887	37.7093	-70.0629	13,644.8	18.917	13,663.7	-12.6258
1888	41.319	-83.4252	14,950.9	22.5248	14,973.4	-15.0337
1889	35.1421	-81.2026	12,715.9	21.9247	12,737.8	-14.6332
1890	48.0154	-56.6505	17,373.9	15.2956	17,389.2	-10.2088
1891	42.4983	-77.7426	15,377.6	20.9905	15,398.6	-14.0097
1892	34.7709	-74.4514	12,581.5	20.1019	12,601.6	-13.4166
1893	61.3788	-55.8406	22,209.3	15.077	22,224.4	-10.0628
1894	48.461	-57.2117	17,535.2	15.4471	17,550.6	-10.3099
1895	41.8443	-80.0218	15,141	21.6059	15,162.6	-14.4204
1896	28.1413	-63.4892	10,182.7	17.1421	10,199.8	-11.4411
1897	36.7689	-59.3053	13,304.5	16.0124	13,320.5	-10.6872
1898	56.2936	-59.9235	20,369.3	16.1794	20,385.5	-10.7986
1899	94.8463	-37.6235	34,319.3	10.1584	34,329.5	-6.77999
1900	37.6781	-73.8247	13,633.5	19.9327	13,653.4	-13.3037
1901	41.9945	-79.1681	15,195.3	21.3754	15,216.7	-14.2666
1902	37.1614	-64.8777	13,446.5	17.517	13,464	-11.6914
1903	78.0952	-40.432	28,258	10.9166	28,269	-7.28609
1904	32.8576	-62.154	11,889.2	16.7816	11,906	-11.2005
1905	48.573	-56.13	17,575.7	15.1551	17,590.8	-10.115
1906	48.3605	-59.7826	17,498.8	16.1413	17,515	-10.7732
1907	32.3167	-61.2575	11,693.5	16.5395	11,710	-11.039
1908	28.4216	-75.7161	10,284.1	20.4433	10,304.5	-13.6445
1909	42.0671	-68.1897	15,221.6	18.4112	15,240	-12.2882
1910	45.4057	-79.9746	16,429.6	21.5931	16,451.2	-14.4119
1911	55.7577	-67.8007	20,175.4	18.3062	20,193.7	-12.2181
1912	50.2919	-69.7629	18,197.7	18.836	18,216.5	-12.5717
1913	67.6414	-56.9188	24,475.4	15.3681	24,490.8	-10.2571
1914	60.0881	-67.3859	21,742.3	18.1942	21,760.5	-12.1434
1915	55.5417	-84.0274	20,097.3	22.6874	20,119.9	-15.1423
1916	58.4817	-81.7762	21,161.1	22.0796	21,183.1	-14.7366
1917	44.3136	-75.2127	16,034.5	20.3074	16,054.8	-13.5538
1918	43.6678	-73.9558	15,800.8	19.9681	15,820.8	-13.3273
1919	47.057	-84.4669	17,027.2	22.8061	17,050	-15.2214
1920	43.5704	-87.2248	15,765.6	23.5507	15,789.1	-15.7184
1921	61.1374	-63.8176	22,122	17.2307	22,139.2	-11.5003
1922	60.0169	-66.8756	21,716.6	18.0564	21,734.6	-12.0514
1923	56.2051	-71.7502	20,337.3	19.3726	20,356.7	-12.9298
1924	51.9558	-83.4331	18,799.7	22.5269	18,822.3	-15.0352
1925	68.8581	-63.7715	24,915.7	17.2183	24,932.9	-11.492
1926	55.9145	-92.413	20,232.2	24.9515	20,257.1	-16.6534
1927	62.1587	-73.2616	22,491.6	19.7806	22,511.3	-13.2022
1928	64.2698	-74.686	23,255.4	20.1652	23,275.6	-13.4589
1929	49.3589	-78.385	17,860.1	21.164	17,881.2	-14.1255
1930	53.2584	-94.4897	19,271.1	25.5122	19,296.6	-17.0276
1931	59.4582	-90.3891	21,514.4	24.4051	21,538.8	-16.2887
1932	58.5229	-64.8595	21,176	17.5121	21,193.5	-11.6881
1933	46.4053	-109.808	16,791.3	29.6481	16,821	-19.788
1934	45.1799	-77.4096	16,347.9	20.9006	16,368.8	-13.9497
1935	51.5639	-71.4994	18,657.9	19.3048	18,677.2	-12.8846
1936	61.6664	-87.7931	22,313.4	23.7041	22,337.1	-15.8208
1937	63.6981	-92.4289	23,048.6	24.9558	23,073.5	-16.6562
1938	65.2964	-52.3593	23,626.9	14.137	23,641	-9.43547
1939	54.0647	-86.511	19,562.8	23.358	19,586.2	-15.5898
1940	62.3124	-75.9092	22,547.2	20.4955	22,567.7	-13.6793
1941	70.9335	-95.6367	25,666.6	25.8219	25,692.5	-17.2343
1942	59.8887	-80.3509	21,670.2	21.6947	21,691.9	-14.4797
1943	65.7229	-56.873	23,781.2	15.3557	23,796.6	-10.2489
1944	66.2039	-65.0344	23,955.3	17.5593	23,972.8	-11.7196
1945	66.8451	-67.7258	24,187.3	18.286	24,205.6	-12.2046
1946	70.1161	-72.4135	25,370.9	19.5517	25,390.4	-13.0494
1947	71.4785	-91.2629	25,863.8	24.641	25,888.5	-16.4461
1948	85.1707	-67.3479	30,818.2	18.1839	30,836.4	-12.1365
1949	67.7182	-59.4584	24,503.2	16.0538	24,519.3	-10.7148
1950	64.0309	-64.0142	23,169	17.2838	23,186.3	-11.5357
1951	70.9644	-82.8413	25,677.8	22.3671	25,700.2	-14.9285
1952	75.7239	-64.648	27,400	17.455	27,417.5	-11.65
1953	64.9413	-64.6359	23,498.4	17.4517	23,515.9	-11.6478
1954	61.52	-72.5081	22,260.4	19.5772	22,280	-13.0664
1955	71.9444	-73.1581	26,032.4	19.7527	26,052.2	-13.1835
1956	70.7441	-77.0445	25,598.1	20.802	25,618.9	-13.8839
1957	67.0637	-72.1986	24,266.4	19.4936	24,285.9	-13.0106
1958	76.9931	-70.7424	27,859.3	19.1004	27,878.4	-12.7482
1959	63.041	-70.9001	22,810.8	19.143	22,829.9	-12.7766
1960	70.876	-89.5291	25,645.9	24.1729	25,670	-16.1337
1961	71.3146	-66.8096	25,804.5	18.0386	25,822.6	-12.0395
1962	68.8152	-66.3827	24,900.2	17.9233	24,918.1	-11.9626
1963	66.5913	-75.9768	24,095.5	20.5137	24,116	-13.6915
1964	63.9038	-61.2439	23,123	16.5359	23,139.6	-11.0365
1965	68.7868	-69.5397	24,889.9	18.7757	24,908.7	-12.5315
1966	68.8358	-70.3847	24,907.6	19.0039	24,926.6	-12.6837
1967	74.9204	-57.9804	27,109.3	15.6547	27,124.9	-10.4484
1968	70.3528	-68.8011	25,456.5	18.5763	25,475.1	-12.3984
1969	72.9615	-70.7315	26,400.5	19.0975	26,419.6	-12.7463
1970	72.7825	-70.7567	26,335.7	19.1043	26,354.8	-12.7508
1971	73.6587	-64.5366	26,652.7	17.4249	26,670.2	-11.6299
1972	79.5346	-72.8237	28,778.9	19.6624	28,798.6	-13.1233
1973	79.0667	-66.3602	28,609.6	17.9172	28,627.5	-11.9585
1974	78.1179	-74.9104	28,266.3	20.2258	28,286.5	-13.4993
1975	81.1319	-65.6399	29,356.8	17.7228	29,374.6	-11.8287
1976	70.0063	-74.6516	25,331.2	20.1559	25,351.3	-13.4527
1977	71.3001	-74.859	25,799.3	20.2119	25,819.5	-13.49
1978	76.1601	-78.7209	27,557.8	21.2546	27,579.1	-14.186
1979	77.9015	-74.9565	28,188	20.2383	28,208.2	-13.5076
1980	73.7508	-76.5823	26,686.1	20.6772	26,706.8	-13.8006
1981	81.7621	-71.3833	29,584.9	19.2735	29,604.2	-12.8637
1982	83.6517	-73.9718	30,268.6	19.9724	30,288.6	-13.3302
1983	101.238	-71.0912	36,632	19.1946	36,651.2	-12.8111
1984	82.4284	-84.7218	29,826	22.8749	29,848.8	-15.2674
1985	77.6984	-79.6668	28,114.5	21.51	28,136	-14.3564
1986	76.6076	-70.9284	27,719.8	19.1507	27,738.9	-12.7817
1987	80.6751	-77.1718	29,191.6	20.8364	29,212.4	-13.9068
1988	79.6298	-70.4958	28,813.3	19.0339	28,832.3	-12.7038
1989	85.9396	-69.8284	31,096.5	18.8537	31,115.3	-12.5835
1990	82.0305	-67.3179	29,682	18.1758	29,700.2	-12.1311
1991	83.4122	-77.2434	30,182	20.8557	30,202.8	-13.9197
1992	84.2647	-73.4649	30,490.4	19.8355	30,510.3	-13.2388
1993	81.2166	-77.9027	29,387.5	21.0337	29,408.5	-14.0385
1994	80.0073	-71.6998	28,949.9	19.3589	28,969.3	-12.9207
1995	84.7377	-78.0755	30,661.6	21.0804	30,682.7	-14.0697
1996	89.5102	-99.6398	32,388.5	26.9027	32,415.4	-17.9557
1997	93.6223	-81.6928	33,876.4	22.0571	33,898.4	-14.7215
1998	101.265	-79.2168	36,641.7	21.3885	36,663.1	-14.2753
1999	97.8074	-81.3397	35,390.7	21.9617	35,412.7	-14.6579
2000	95.7591	-81.9994	34,649.6	22.1398	34,671.7	-14.7768
2001	95.2933	-86.0169	34,481	23.2246	34,504.2	-15.5008
2002	91.4528	-78.5309	33,091.4	21.2033	33,112.6	-14.1517
2003	98.907	-75.511	35,788.6	20.388	35,809	-13.6075
2004	95.503	-77.0407	34,556.9	20.801	34,577.7	-13.8832
2005	99.3383	-74.0472	35,944.7	19.9927	35,964.6	-13.3438
2006	98.0888	-78.6676	35,492.6	21.2403	35,513.8	-14.1764
2007	101.132	-68.1519	36,593.7	18.401	36,612.1	-12.2814
2008	106.562	-73.6272	38,558.4	19.8793	38,578.3	-13.2681
2009	106.941	-94.1604	38,695.8	25.4233	38,721.2	-16.9683
2010	117.713	-108.744	42,593.5	29.361	42,622.8	-19.5964
2011	112.211	-80.2047	40,602.4	21.6553	40,624.1	-14.4534
2012	116.892	-87.3218	42,296.4	23.5769	42,320	-15.7359
2013	115.981	-108.198	41,966.6	29.2133	41,995.8	-19.4979
2014	118.004	-103.791	42,698.6	28.0235	42,726.6	-18.7037
2015	115.155	-77.8225	41,667.7	21.0121	41,688.7	-14.0241
2016	129.731	-92.6878	46,941.9	25.0257	46,967	-16.7029
2017	133.168	-93.0935	48,185.6	25.1352	48,210.7	-16.776
2018	158.2	-113.859	57,243.4	30.7418	57,274.1	-20.518

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The graph at Fig. 1 is composed of the values in the "Ghost Water GT" column as well as the "Gravity Loss [F = G(m1 m2 / r²)]" column of the table.

As noted above, the purpose of the columns and the graph is to show the proportional relation between SLF and ice mass-gravity loss.

Other events can cause random SLF and SLR (rain deluges capturing water on land or inland bodies of water, etc.) but such random events are not as robust, regular, or systemic as ice sheet mass loss and gravity loss are.

The SLR and SLF values are tide gauge record compositions, while the GT values are calculated (SLR mm * 361.841 = GT).

Note that it is important to remember that even though I do not add the SLF to the SLR, that the SLR is an average (some SLR is well above the average shown in the table above ... see Countries With Sea Level Change, 2).

Here is a table of tide gauge stations with an average SLR over 100 mm:

Station Name	Station # (& Link)	Avg. SLR
DESCHAILLONS	201	340.388
DAUGAVGRIVA	37	331.889
MANILA S. HARBOR	145	285.583
GALVESTON II PIER 21 TX	161	261.707
HOEK VAN HOLLAND	22	253.814
PORT-SAINT-FRANCOIS	137	240.848
PHILADELPHIA (PIER 9N)	135	231.154
NEW YORK (THE BATTERY)	12	223.517
HARLINGEN	25	222.331
HALIFAX	96	221.497
AYUKAWA	131	220.687
ANNAPOLIS (NAVAL ACADEMY)	311	214.29
TRIESTE	154	188.311
MERA	359	182.952
WASHINGTON DC	360	180.441
NEUVILLE	192	179.135
DEN HELDER	23	178.684
ATLANTIC CITY	180	178.583
ABURATSUBO	130	171.681
HILO HAWAII ISLAND	300	169.959
PORT LYTTELTON	247	158.176
NEWPORT	351	157.95
DELFZIJL	24	148.761
CUXHAVEN 2	7	147.598
GDANSK/NOWY PORT	64	147.587
VENEZIA (PUNTA DELLA SALUTE)	168	146.178
EASTPORT	332	143.98
MAASSLUIS	9	139.878
LA JOLLA (SCRIPPS PIER)	256	139.761
FREMANTLE	111	138.546
LEWES (BREAKWATER HARBOR)	224	138.092
NORTH SHIELDS	95	136.209
SEWELLS POINT HAMPTON ROADS	299	134.688
BREST	1	133.216
WELLINGTON HARBOUR	221	130.898
NORTH POINT	333	125.101
BALBOA	163	124.284
TOWER PIER	336	123.427
BOSTON	235	122.844
SEATTLE	127	121.511
ESBJERG	80	118.435
HONOLULU	155	114.556
PORT PIRIE	216	111.437
SAN DIEGO (QUARANTINE STATION)	158	111.389
WILLETS POINT	362	110.359
SHEERNESS	3	108.354
CASCAIS	52	106.124
LIVERPOOL GEORGES AND PRINCES PIERS	15	104.995
LOHM	233	104.83
KEY WEST	188	101.014

UPDATE: A recent paper indicates that there are valid reasons to check-up on computer models from time to time:

"How fast does warm ocean water melt glaciers that terminate in the sea? That question is central to understanding how fast ice sheets may lose mass, and thus how fast sea level will rise, in response to global warming, but there are few data about the process. Sutherland et al. used repeat multibeam sonar surveys to observe an Alaskan subsurface tidewater glacier face to create a time series of its melting and calving patterns. They observed melt rates up to a hundred times larger than those predicted by theory, observations that compel us to reevaluate predictions of such ice loss."

(Science Mag, emphasis added, cf. Phys. Org., Science Daily).

The previous post in this series is here.

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