Sunday, June 24, 2018

Let's Not Be Too Dense - 3

Fig. 1
I. Background

This series focuses on the density of sea water because it is a subject that is important for sea level science.

Density, especially maximum density of sea water, is generally not given the attention it deserves: "the density of seawater is rarely measured" (Let's Not Be Too Dense, quoting the TEOS Manual).

Pure water is a unique liquid that has density-related thermodynamic behaviors which The Warming Science Commentariat (TWSC) is not commonly reporting (The Warming Science Commentariat, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; cf. Fig. 1).

The story begins with pure water's maximum density at 4 degrees Celsius, because sea water density dynamics are the same as pure water, (in terms of principle), except that the Conservative Temperature (CT) at which sea water reaches maximum density varies according to, among other things, its Absolute Salinity or SA: "Absolute Salinity (g/kg) is the salinity variable that is needed in order to calculate density and other seawater properties" (TEOS-10 Org, emphasis in original).

II. Comparing Data of WOD Zones

Fig. 2 Locations (red rectangles)
The point of all this is that the common belief among TWSC is that ocean warming (not ice sheet melt) is the main cause of sea level rise.

In Proof of Concept - 9, we noted that WOD Zones with either sea level rise (SLR) or sea level fall (SLF) were not in sync with the TWSC mantra: "when water is warmed it expands."

The graphs in that post were bereft of TEOS-10 computations of thermal expansion and contraction (on purpose).

The reason was so that the reader would focus on the sea water temperature compared to the sea level dynamics in the featured zones (Fig. 2).
Fig. 3a
Fig. 3b
Fig. 3c
Fig. 3d
Fig. 3e
Fig. 3f
Fig. 3g
Fig. 3h
Fig. 3i
Fig. 3j
Fig. 3k
Fig. 3l
Fig. 3m
Fig. 3n
Fig. 3o
Fig. 3p

Fig. 3q
Fig. 3r
The "when water is warmed it expands" TWSC mantra suggests that in zones where the mean average annual water temperature trend is rising / warming, then the sea level in those zones should also be rising.

Conversely, in zones where the mean average annual water temperature trend is falling / cooling, then the sea level in those zones should also be falling.
Fig. 3s

Fig. 3t
What the graphs in that post at Fig. 2a - Fig. 2t show is that the TWSC mantra is not correct.

III. Same Data New Graphs
Fig. 4

Today's graphs are made with the same in situ data from the same zones, but are numbered (Fig. 3a - Fig. 3t), while still matching the 'a' - 't' sequence.

That is, Fig. 2a in the previous post is the same WOD zone as Fig. 3a in today's post.

Both computations use the exact same in situ base data and TEOS-10 library functions for calculating Conservative Temperature (CT) Absolute Salinity (SA), and Pressure (P).

However, for additional comparisons, today's graphs DO have the TEOS-10 computations of thermal expansion and contraction (in terms of millimeters of sea level change).

Those millimeters of thermosteric volume change are caused by changes in CT, SA, and P.

The additional TEOS-10 value used today is the "thermal expansion coefficient" (tec) generated by the formulation tec = gsw_alpha(SA, CT, P), as discussed here.

The other formulas used to generate the CT, SA, volume change, etc., are likewise the same as always (Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System).

Only one of today's graphs was made with records from a zone (Zone 7116, Fig. 3o) that had very little data (in terms of calculating thermal expansion / contraction).

There was enough data to generate the standard CT, SA, and tide gauge recorded sea level graph lines (see Fig. 2o here).

So, due to the sparse data from that zone I made a "line format" graph with the sea level change and temperature change (Fig. 4) in addition to the Fig. 3o graph.

Thermal expansion graphs take at least one more record than the others do because the format requires that the application begin on the second year of the data stream.

The only data used from the first year's record in such a scenario is the Conservative Temperature, (because the sea water volume change calculation depends on the temperature change from one year to the next).

Some zones just don't have as much data as we would like.

IV. Same Results

Any way we look at the data, the hypothesis that "thermal expansion of the ocean is the main cause of sea level rise" is falsified.

The design of today's graphs put both the tide gauge station records of sea level (for a particular zone) and calculated thermal volume change  for that zone on the same graph.

Today's graphs (Fig. 3a - Fig. 3t) are in "line format" as opposed to separate-panes format in the former graphs (Fig. 2a - Fig. 2t).

Hopefully, this gives the reader maximum comparison visibility so as to see the stark differences between what the TWSC mantra supposes and what the reality is.

V. Your Lying Eyes?

What we should be seeing, if the ("thermal expansion of the ocean is the main cause of sea level rise") mantra was a valid hypothesis, is that thermosteric volume change would determine the pattern of the sea level change recorded in each zone.

Obviously, something besides thermodynamics is causing the major recorded patterns of the sea level change.

VI. The Cause Is Known

The reason for the disagreement between the mantra and the real world is basic Newtonian mechanics.

Gravity and the rotation of the Earth in space generate forces that cannot be ignored (assuming of course, that the real dynamics are the objects of one's research and computations).

We know that "ghost water" (substantial amounts of sea water held close to coasts of ice sheet-bearing land masses) is a major cause of sea level change (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

Ghost water is released from the gravitational hold of ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica) and large glacial fields (e.g. Glacier Bay, Patagonia, and Svalbard) when those ice sheets / glaciers lose mass due to melting or calving (NASA Busts The Ghost).

Ghost water, ice bergs, and melt water are relocated to other parts of the globe when released from the gravitational power of the ice sheet or glacial field that holds them.

That relocation can't happen without the initial ice melt / calving, which is the other major cause of sea level change.

We know that this has been happening for a lot longer than the TWSC are aware of (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 54).

As it turns out, thermal expansion is a minor cause of sea level change, not "a" major cause, nor "the" major cause of sea level change.

VII. Conclusion

There is no doubt that some scientists are in surge mode in terms of a surge of scientific research and discovery concerning the Cryosphere and its threat to civilization (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; The Extinction of Charleston, The Extinction of Philadelphia, The Extinction of Washington, D.C., The Extinction of Boston, The Extinction of Miami, The Extinction of Manzanillo, The Extinction of Houston, The Extinction of Providence, The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands).

Sounding the CLIMATE ALARM is morally required of any scientist who cares about a mass die-off of flora and fauna.

That includes care about humanity.

But alas, some countries do not have that cultural understanding.

It is the worst of citizenship to not care about what happens to a civilization or even to an individual who needs help.

Florida is in one of the epicenters of the growing acceleration of sea level rise.

So, is there a legal requirement for all citizens to SOUND THE ALARM in that area because of what is happening there?

Notice our culture's laissez-faire camouflaged attitude about duty-to-warn laws concerning that kind of social awareness:
"A recent viral video shows a group of strangers forming a human chain on a Florida beach to save a family that had been caught in a riptide and pulled away from the shore.

Another video from Florida—taken just one day after the above rescue—sadly provides a stark contrast.

A group of five teenagers saw Jamel Dunn, a 32-year-old disabled man, drowning in a pond and screaming for help. Rather than trying to save him or calling 911, they videotaped his struggles while mocking and laughing at him.

When Dunn went under the water one last time, one youth can be heard saying, “Oh, he just died.” The teens laughed and then just left.

They never reported the incident to the authorities, opting to post their grim video on social media instead. Dunn’s badly decomposed body wasn’t discovered until three days later.

While the general public widely applauded the actions of the bystanders who saved the family off the Panama City Beach, condemnation of the teenagers was just as widespread.

The condemnation included calls for their arrests. But did the teens commit a crime?

Because there’s no general duty to rescue someone enshrined in Florida’s statutes, there isn’t any crime ..."
(Should We Legislate a Duty to Rescue?). At the bottom of this sea level change problem is cultural addiction to fossil fuel use.

The fossil fuel addiction has been fostered by an unaware civilization that has a Stockholm Syndrome approach to the perpetrator Oil-Qaeda (Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

Sound the alarm ... at least (The Authoritarianism of Climate Change).

The previous post in this series is here.


  1. Interesting site that thinks only 1/3 of sea level change is caused by thermal expansion and contraction (link).

    1. They offer the half-truth ("when water is warmed it expands") and the Bunsen Burner mantra as their proof (using pure water for their test).

      They neglect the other half of the story ("water contracts when it is heated") and show no evidence at all for their assertion as applied to seawater.

      They list 4 "causes" for sea level change: "Ice melting from land into the ocean, warming waters that expand, a slowing Gulf Stream, and sinking land all contribute to sea level rise" (There Are Four Main Culprits).

      Like the horde they missed ghost water, and so they, like the horde, are doomed to blame reality on something else.