Sunday, May 10, 2020

On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 45

Ice Melt Is The Main Cause of Sea Level Change
I. Context

Today, we take a look at actual sea level change (SLC) as measured at hundreds of tide gauge stations around the globe.

With them we can compare the actual in situ measurements taken by instruments at those tide gauge stations located around the world (which have been measuring sea level for hundreds of years in some cases), then analyze the world according to measurements.

In other words, we can then compare those changing values to the actual calculated values for thermal expansion (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 44), as well as the abstract values for thermal expansion previously presented in this series (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 43).

The hypothesis being tested today by so doing is "thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise".

II. Source of Sea Level Data

The Permanent Service For Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) records sea level in Revised Local Reference (RLR) format.

For ease of use I convert that RLR millimeter format into simple millimeter format.

But, to satisfy our curiosity I present the values of both formats in the HTML file tables, and in the graphs as well.

So, when you select an HTML table or select a graph for any of the ocean areas listed below in the "Links To Appendices" selection table, you can see both formats and compare them as needed.

The basic difference between RLR and SLC is that RLR values are in multiple thousands, while SLC values are way less than one thousand.

The link to the "RLR format" definition mentioned in the first sentence in this section II explains the reasoning for the use of RLR.

III. Appendices

The HTML Table appendices (A1-E1)) are composed of a list of RLR and SLC values for a particular ocean area over a long span of time.

That span of time is as long as 1880-2019, but in some cases measurements have not been recorded for that long because of the harsh conditions in some regions (or because there is no place to put a tide gauge station ... e.g. the middle of the ocean where there is no land to put one on).

The graph appendices (A2-E2) show the mean averages of those sea level measurement values (RLR-millimeter and millimeter) in graph format.

Links To Appendices
Ocean AreaHtml Tables Graphs
AtlanticAppendix A1Appendix A2
PacificAppendix B1Appendix B2
PolarAppendix C1Appendix C2
EquatorialAppendix D1Appendix D2
IndianAppendix E1Appendix E2

IV. What This Is All About

These Dredd Blog series of posts fall into the category of grey/gray literature.

They concern the long-held hypothesis about what causes SLC, and specifically the size of the part thermal expansion/contraction plays in that SLC.

V. Closing Comments

This series is composed of literature which seeks to draw close attention to the aforesaid hypothesis that "thermal expansion is the main cause of sea level rise".

In this series I have argued that the said hypothesis has been falsified, and no one has responded with any evidence, especially evidence of equal quantity or quality.

Here are the totals for your perusal (NOTE: the 'Total' of the 11 oceans (~5.5 ft,~1690 mm on the last line of the table) is not actual, visual results because the SLC levels out to about the average as the oceans flow together):

Thermosteric tsSLC vs Actual SLC Graphs

Ocean WOD tsSLC (mm) SLC (mm) in situ tsSLC (mm)
North Atlantic 1.69869258.4564.52489
Equatorial Atlantic 2.3308670.430.840493
South Atlantic 1.895548.43111.2491
North Pacific 1.72838130.5643.06685
Equatorial Pacific 2.32835115.1186.4686
South Pacific 1.91171144.1325.02795
North Indian 2.22555-51.5450.563049
Equatorial Indian 2.33282144.0098.16361
South Indian 1.97321468.9546.30896
Southern 0.87936776.95671.98366
Arctic 0.609101377.0290.487493
Average (11 oceans) 1.81032153.6203.51679
Total (11 oceans) 19.91351689.82738.6847

The three right-most columns in the "Thermosteric tsSLC vs Actual SLC Graphs" table compare the results from post 43 ("WOD tsSLC"), this current post 45 ("SLC mm"), and  post 44 ("in situ tsSlc") so as to give a quick look at the contrasts.

The "WOD tsSlc" values were computed using the maximum and mininum values for temperature and salinity presented in the WOD manual as explained in On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 43.

The "SLC" values in the middle column are tide gauge station measurements of actual sea levels over time (no temperature and salinity values involved).

The "in situ tsSLC" values were computed using actual temperature and salinity measurements as explained in On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 44.

Either way you look at it, the thermal expansion values are not the main cause of sea level rise.

The previous post in this series is here.

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