Thursday, April 28, 2016

The 1.14% vs. The 100% - 2

Writing Scientific Papers
In the first post of this series I pointed out that to keep the law in today's civilization one must become an alarmist.

As has been pointed out here on Dredd Blog, it is alarming that only 1.0 - 1.14% of ice sheet and glacial ice needs to reach the ocean to cause catastrophe (The 1.14% vs. The 100%, The Ghost-Water Constant - 3).

What are science, religion, and government for if not to warn the citizenry of dangers the people face  (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)?

The answer that comes to our mind in response to that  question is a product of the culture we are born into, and our personal conclusions formulated during our lives.

Those all change from time to time.

I am inclined, at this time, to say that science, religion, and government should be for, and subject to, the common good (The Common Good, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

But when science, religion, and government form their own language and ideas in a vacuum far from the common good, they depart to seek what is "good" only for themselves and their "stockholders".

Don't take my word for it, check these out:
Experience has shown that even under the best forms of government those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.” – Thomas Jefferson

If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." - Thomas Jefferson

"Leave no authority existing not responsible to the people." - Thomas Jefferson

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee
(Dredd Blog Quotes Page). Climate science for professional and layperson alike has been around since dirt (Oldest Climate Change Records, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 54).

Even military officers feel a duty toward scientific warnings for citizens who rely on them for protection:
The nature and pace of climate changes being observed today and the consequences projected by the consensus scientific opinion are grave and pose equally grave implications for our national security. Moving beyond the arguments of cause and effect, it is important that the U.S. military begin planning to address these potentially devastating effects.
(Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity - 2). Equally counter-intuitive, scientists and religionists can be the most opaque with their use of Latin or words formed in a some other secret-society like environment (Speaking in Tongues).

Some scientific papers speak in a tongue the people they say they are helping can't understand:
Here we apply the most advanced type of these models to explore, for the first time, the impact of the sea-level feedback on projections of AIS collapse under a wide range of future emission scenarios. We also adopt several models of the Earth’s viscoelastic structure in the sea-level modelling to capture the range of gravitational, rotational and bedrock deformational responses to the ice-ocean mass redistribution. We note that long timescale, large spatial scale ice-sheet modelling studies include treatments of bedrock deformation ... but recent regional studies of future AIS retreat over up to hundreds of years have kept the bedrock elevation fixed ... and none of these studies have included gravitational effects on sea level. Our results indicate that sea-level changes associated with gravitational effects and deformation of the solid Earth may impact future Antarctic ice-sheet evolution. Moreover, the adopted viscoelastic Earth structure influences the size and timing of the impact of the sea-level feedback.
(Sea-level feedback). There is no practical information in that piece for the common people, however, I am sure that the scientists involved stroked their own egos a bit (Earlier Criticism of This Concept).

Don't you think that the endangered people would rather know that only 1% to 1.14% of the ice sheets and mountain glaciers of the world need to melt in order to begin the extinction of civilization?

And especially when that tiny, tiny percentage of ice melt could be reached:
"That revelation was made by an official with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] on Tuesday at the annual RIMS conference for risk management and insurance professionals in San Diego, Calif.

The conference is being attended by more than 10,000 people, according to organizers. It was day No. 3 of the conference, which ends Wednesday.

Margaret Davidson, NOAA’s senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services, and Michael Angelina, executive director of the Academy of Risk Management and Insurance, offered their take on climate change data in a conference session titled “Environmental Intelligence: Quantifying the Risks of Climate Change.”

Davidson said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters or 9 feet by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than current projections. Until now most projections have warned of seal level rise of up to 4 feet by 2100.

These new findings will likely be released in the latest sets of reports on climate change due out in the next few years.

“The latest field data out of West Antarctic is kind of an OMG thing,” she said."
(Will This Float Your Boat - 12). Scientific, religious, and government jargon that obscures the dangers to the people constitute incompetence mixed with ill will.

Stop it.

Here is an example of better communication between scientists and laypersons by Dr. James Hansen in his recent letter to Warren Buffett:
Recent scientific data indicate that continued high fossil fuel emissions will lock in sea level rise of at least 6-9 meters (20-30 feet). Almost all coastal cities, including most of the world’s largest cities, would be lost. Large impacts may not begin for several decades, but this delayed response of the ponderous climate system spells danger for young people. We can pass a point of no return, where it becomes impossible to avoid future Antarctic ice sheet disintegration and loss of coastal cities. Economic devastation and refugees could make the world ungovernable.

So, Mr. Buffett, I am heartened by the words in your last annual report, where you conclude that continued inaction on climate change “is foolhardy.” You wrote: “Call this Noah’s Law: If an Ark may be essential for survival (your emphasis), begin building it today.”
(Scientist Communicates With Billionaire). It is even ok to start building it "yesterday" in some cases.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


  1. "Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has quadrupled over the last decade ,,,"

    That is clear.


  2. and once it's gone there's no getting it back . . .