Monday, May 16, 2016

On The Natural Variability of Tide Gauge Records

Fig. 1 1st 24 Stations of 71
I. Background

This post wraps up the subject matter, for now, concerning Dredd Blog zones which contain more than one tide gauge station, and at least one tide gauge station that has been reporting sea level at that station since the 1800's.

These final graphs today complete the list of graphs for twenty-one zones which began to keep records over two centuries ago (209 years) in 1807.

II. The Twenty-One Zones Covered

In posts Zone AH, Quadrant SE, Subquadrant NE - 2, The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 5, The Warming Science Commentariat - 4, and today's post, twenty one zones were graphed.

Fig. 2 2nd 23 Stations of 71
The following list contains the zone id, number of stations in that zone, and the first year records began to be kept in that area.

Fig. 3 3rd 24 Stations of 71
1) Zone: AD.SW.SE, 38 stations, begin year: 1858 (Fig. 3 here)

2) Zone: AG.NE.SE, 31 stations, begin year: 1899 (Fig. 4 here)

3) Zone: AG.SE.NE, 11 stations, begin year: 1855 (Fig. 5 here)

Fig. 4
4) Zone: AH.NE.SE, 36 stations, begin year: 1897 (Fig. 6 here)

5) Zone: AH.SE.NE, 31 stations, begin year: 1856 (Fig. 1 here)

6) Zone: AH.SE.SW, 29 stations, begin year: 1898 (Fig. 6 here)

7) Zone: AI.NE.NE, 35 stations, begin year: 1858 (Fig. 8 here)

8) Zone: AI.NE.SE, 32 stations, begin year: 1807 (Fig. 8 here)

9) Zone: AI.SE.NE, 29 stations, begin year: 1882 (Fig. 10 here)

10) Zone: AI.SE.SE, 20 stations, begin year: 1881 (Fig. 11 here)

11) Zone: AJ.NW.NW, 54 stations, begin year: 1811 (Fig. 4)

Fig. 5
12) Zone: AJ.NW.NE, 29 stations, begin year: 1858 (Fig. 12 here)

13) Zone: AJ.NW.SW, 33 stations, begin year: 1833 (Fig. 6)

14) Zone: AJ.SW.NW, 38 stations, begin year: 1884 (Fig. 8)

15) Zone: AJ.SE.NW, 6 stations, begin year: 1874 (Fig. 7)

16) Zone: AL.SW.SW, 71 stations, begin year: 1894 (Fig. 1,2,3)

17) Zone: AQ.NW.NE, 3 stations, begin year: 1882 (Fig.9)

18) Zone: AQ.NW.SW, 8 stations, begin year: 1878 (Fig. 10)

Fig. 6
19) Zone: AQ.NW.SE, 9 stations, begin year: 1882 (Fig. 12)

20) Zone: A2.NE.NE, 4 stations, begin year: 1897 (Fig. 1 here)

21) Zone: A3.NE.NW, 10 stations, begin year: 1886 (Fig. 2 here)

III. Using Contrasting Records

There are many reasons for using the older tide gauge station records, and contrasting them with tide gauge records at stations built after them.

Fig. 7
These graphs, made from records in small zones bounded by latitudes and longitudes of a meaningful geographical nexus, mean more than the "global mean average."

Fig. 8
On several of the graphs you see small red and blue squares that mark the beginning of a record as well as the end.

This way the sea level rise or fall at any location is shown to have a different dynamic than those at other locations relatively near them.

This illustrates the point that sea level rise not only takes place at different rates at different locations, but also that tide gauge stations are better used in conjunction with those near them.

Fig. 9

IV. The Public Deserves The Truth

Dr. Jerry Mitrovica is one of the world's better experts on why the oceans fall and rise when ice sheets melt

In the first video below, he indicates that using the global mean average ("bathtub model") is not a clear picture of reality.

So, people have been kept from information to the degree that it diminishes their ability to better understand the circumstances in their geographical area.

Regular readers of Dredd Blog are part of the public, so I try to give them the reality of all this, warts and all.

Fig. 10
It is their right to figure out for themselves, their families, and their friends, how these events have meaning in their own personal lives.

Fig. 11
When they know the actual circumstances, they can at least call officials to find out what those officials are doing in response to the dangers to seaports and seashores in their geographical area.

V. Conclusion

Look over the graphs.

Notice how active the oceans are.

Imagine you are an official in a company that is being asked about moving a seaport to a new location.

Think about all the things in these records that will help you to figure out the better way to proceed.
Fig. 12

All the while remembering that you have been told only about the silly millimetres of sea level rise for decades.

Then think about what if it is too late now to adapt fast enough.

The scientist who was a post doctorate student along with Dr. Stephen Hawking, in the second video, talks about climate change and the growing difficulty of computer models during storms of change.

1 comment:

  1. In the second video the genius sort of chokes up, then indicates that he expects a substantial percent of humanity to not survive until 2100 (84 years).