Fig. 1 |
Fig. 2 |
Seaports which face a foe (a foe called global warming induced climate change) that is geared up for the long haul, geared up to raise the sea level above normal operating levels, now, and for decades to come at those ports (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).
Fig. 3 |
Fig. 4 |
The graphs at Fig. 1, Fig. 2, and Fig. 3 show sea level projections out to the year 2100, and include the sea level history at those ports.
Fig. 5 |
Fig. 6 |
Fig. 7 |
Fig. 8 |
Fig. 9 |
Fig. 10 |
Fig. 11 |
Fig. 12 |
For example, the large naval base and port at Norfolk, VA, which already suffers some partial shutdowns due to sea level rise.
The WOD Zones (7412, 7312, and 7311) on the West Coast, along with the PSMSL tide gauge stations within those zones is as follows:
Zone [7412] had [32] stations:
Stn# 630, Stn# 1825, Stn# 193, Stn# 175, Stn# 1245, Stn# 1255, Stn# 1341, Stn# 688, Stn# 1152, Stn# 166, Stn# 921, Stn# 842, Stn# 1242, Stn# 527, Stn# 165, Stn# 385, Stn# 2298, Stn# 2127, Stn# 1633, Stn# 384, Stn# 1354, Stn# 127, Stn# 1325, Stn# 265, Stn# 1285, Stn# 1541, Stn# 1196, Stn# 2214, Stn# 1269, Stn# 1640, Stn# 378, Stn# 1639
Zone [7312] had [7] stations:
Stn# 2125, Stn# 1394, Stn# 10, Stn# 437, Stn# 1663, Stn# 1352, Stn# 508
Zone [7311] had [11] stations:
Stn# 795, Stn# 1457, Stn# 1013, Stn# 2126, Stn# 377, Stn# 245, Stn# 717, Stn# 766, Stn# 883, Stn# 256, Stn# 158
Total Stations: 50
Some fifty tide gauge station records spanning the years 1854 - 2015 were used to make the Fig. 2 graph from historical and projected future sea level rise.
The WOD Zones for the top ten seaports (1010, 1205, 1211, 1212, 1311, and 1312), which are not in the U.S., contain the following tide gauge stations within their boundaries:
Zone [1010] had [25] stations:
Stn# 1595, Stn# 1594, Stn# 1591, Stn# 1593, Stn# 1677, Stn# 248, Stn# 1702, Stn# 1678, Stn# 1589, Stn# 1592, Stn# 1703, Stn# 1183, Stn# 1746, Stn# 1534, Stn# 2032, Stn# 1351, Stn# 2068, Stn# 2033, Stn# 1248, Stn# 2034, Stn# 1275, Stn# 1894, Stn# 724, Stn# 1895, Stn# 1896
Zone [1205] had [4] stations:
Stn# 1494, Stn# 1887, Stn# 1716, Stn# 2185
Zone [1211] had [14] stations:
Stn# 933, Stn# 727, Stn# 1406, Stn# 1428, Stn# 1698, Stn# 987, Stn# 1674, Stn# 333, Stn# 1891, Stn# 1034, Stn# 1366, Stn# 1685, Stn# 1902, Stn# 269
Zone [1212] had [11] stations:
Stn# 934, Stn# 887, Stn# 1018, Stn# 1522, Stn# 1105, Stn# 1388, Stn# 1151, Stn# 1411, Stn# 1671, Stn# 545, Stn# 1356
Zone [1311] had [4] stations:
Stn# 1405, Stn# 1404, Stn# 1403, Stn# 614
Zone [1312] had [34] stations:
Stn# 979, Stn# 731, Stn# 723, Stn# 1513, Stn# 1100, Stn# 1101, Stn# 672, Stn# 1147, Stn# 1318, Stn# 661, Stn# 1586, Stn# 1007, Stn# 956, Stn# 1699, Stn# 1675, Stn# 959, Stn# 1527, Stn# 1628, Stn# 954, Stn# 1489, Stn# 1627, Stn# 1066, Stn# 1568, Stn# 1546, Stn# 1155, Stn# 1446, Stn# 1588, Stn# 970, Stn# 1445, Stn# 955, Stn# 997, Stn# 1324, Stn# 1108, Stn# 1365
Total Stations: 92
Wow, ninety two Tide Gauge Station locations with historical records going back to 1925 were used to make the graph at Fig. 1.
And finally, WOD Zones on the East Coast of the U.S. (7207, 7208, 7209, 7307, 7308, 7309, and 7407) have the following PSMSL tide gauge stations within them:
Zone [7207] had [7] stations:
Stn# 1646, Stn# 1928, Stn# 563, Stn# 2288, Stn# 2021, Stn# 2287, Stn# 1934
Zone [7208] had [27] stations:
Stn# 2286, Stn# 2289, Stn# 1297, Stn# 1909, Stn# 690, Stn# 526, Stn# 2296, Stn# 1193, Stn# 1714, Stn# 199, Stn# 428, Stn# 1638, Stn# 520, Stn# 1106, Stn# 1107, Stn# 188, Stn# 1701, Stn# 1187, Stn# 1424, Stn# 363, Stn# 1717, Stn# 1696, Stn# 1669, Stn# 270, Stn# 1182, Stn# 1858, Stn# 2123
Zone [7209] had [15] stations:
Stn# 918, Stn# 1020, Stn# 497, Stn# 1038, Stn# 919, Stn# 922, Stn# 538, Stn# 725, Stn# 828, Stn# 161, Stn# 920, Stn# 1835, Stn# 440, Stn# 2297, Stn# 1903
Zone [7307] had [35] stations:
Stn# 234, Stn# 1721, Stn# 1651, Stn# 1720, Stn# 1444, Stn# 862, Stn# 1431, Stn# 2294, Stn# 396, Stn# 2295, Stn# 719, Stn# 1636, Stn# 945, Stn# 399, Stn# 462, Stn# 1635, Stn# 299, Stn# 597, Stn# 1295, Stn# 481, Stn# 360, Stn# 971, Stn# 412, Stn# 1203, Stn# 311, Stn# 148, Stn# 1338, Stn# 636, Stn# 1337, Stn# 224, Stn# 2292, Stn# 135, Stn# 786, Stn# 1153, Stn# 180
Zone [7308] had [13] stations:
Stn# 1884, Stn# 1715, Stn# 1156, Stn# 2215, Stn# 246, Stn# 1641, Stn# 1136, Stn# 1670, Stn# 316, Stn# 716, Stn# 112, Stn# 395, Stn# 1537
Zone [7309] had [0] stations.
Zone [7407] had [35] stations:
Stn# 1223, Stn# 999, Stn# 173, Stn# 201, Stn# 137, Stn# 1798, Stn# 126, Stn# 1005, Stn# 144, Stn# 387, Stn# 951, Stn# 192, Stn# 1244, Stn# 1392, Stn# 1654, Stn# 366, Stn# 12, Stn# 1637, Stn# 519, Stn# 875, Stn# 848, Stn# 362, Stn# 856, Stn# 1068, Stn# 429, Stn# 430, Stn# 351, Stn# 776, Stn# 367, Stn# 1111, Stn# 775, Stn# 235, Stn# 288, Stn# 2291, Stn# 183
Total Stations: 132
Wooooo Hooooo, one hundred and thirty two tide gauge station historical records provide a good base, a good dataset, from which to project out to the year 2100.
That projection, low or high, signals deep trouble for national security:
The harms associated with climate change are serious and well recognized. The Government’s own objective assessment of the relevant science and a strong consensus among qualified experts indicate that global warming threatens, inter alia, a precipitate rise in sea levels, severe and irreversible changes to natural ecosystems, a significant reduction in winter snowpack with direct and important economic consequences, and increases in the spread of disease and the ferocity of weather events. [quoting U.S. Supreme Court](Will This Float Your Boat - 10). It is easy to see why the military, charged with national security, is troubled by the prospect of "more than 95%" of the nation's supply lines being cut (Will Elections Cure The Disease? - 2, 3).
...
"By volume, more than 95 percent of U.S. international trade moves through the nation's ports and harbors, with about 50 percent of these goods being hazardous materials." [quoting NOAA 'Ports']
After all, it was the military that just shut down a pipeline (Army Blocks Drilling of Dakota Access Oil Pipeline), because they have jurisdiction over "national security related supply lines" such as seaports in perilous times:
A soldier fighting in a war today has many of the same basic needs that a soldier had thousands of years ago. Meals, medicines, and munitions are just a few of the fundamental supplies that are needed to keep a military unit operating at full capacity. Soldiers require the same basic life necessities as civilians: nutrition, shelter, and medical supplies to maintain good health. But soldiers must also have weapons and the consumables that weapons need to function, such as ammunition, repair parts, and fuel. So, not surprisingly, great warriors throughout history have carefully planned their strategies around ["logistics" ... aka "warrior stuff"].(Supply Line Warfare). A great warrior is coming to a seaport near you pilgrim.
Anyway, the other graphs (Fig. 4 through Fig. 12) show geographical and geophysical sources which are the origin of the sea level changes, including some satellite measurements intermingled with PSMSL measurements (Fig. 4, Fig. 5, and Fig. 6).
IPCC low estimates are being exposed.
ReplyDelete“Climate change may be considerably more rapid than we thought it was.” (link)
DeleteGood one Randy!
The IPCC estimates read like a Big 4 accounting firm's annual report where a very troubled company is made to look pretty good to protect shareholder value.
@Dredd-great work(again). This evidence is to be trusted alongside observation; as magnetic and true N on a compass. Many thanks!
Earth's below the surface processes are legendary in how long things can take; e.g.formation of diamonds, oil and gas, various and assorted gems, tectonic plate movement etc.
For all those patient and time bound projects that seem an eternity from a human timescale, Earth never wastes valuable time in restoring an equilibrium on her surface.
Pressure and temperature departures from normal are often reconciled with spectacular speed and efficiency. Saw this growing up in tornado alley and similarly on the Gulf Coast when hurricanes roared ashore. They were just doing their job and obeying the physics that required it.
We might 'think' that the phase change of the planet's water stores from solid to liquid will be slow, but relative to what measure?
Here's a vast section of the Larsen C in the Antarctic preparing to do an 'otter slide'. It's roughly the size of Vermont.
http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/12/05/nasa-captures-disturbing-image-of-antarctica-ice-rift/21620773/
"The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas" (2016)
ReplyDelete