Monday, January 18, 2016

The Evolution of Models - 20

Jacobshavin Ice Stream
In the previous post of this series I noted that the Dredd Blog software model is based on acceleration of damage being done to the Global Climate System.

In turn, that damage reality results in another acceleration of events which a Damaged Global Climate System also produces.

Specifically, as the damaged global climate system is poisoned with greenhouse gases, its gasps and its lashing-out will accelerate accordingly:
The seesaw historical patterns at tide gauge stations around the world are the fingerprints of a planet writhing in the torment inflicted upon it by a murder suicide pact (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder).

A planet writhing in the hurt of having to bring into order the changing of the guards, and to order the invasion that will make current civilization extinct (The Extinction of Charleston, The Extinction of Philadelphia, The Extinction of Washington, D.C., The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, The Extinction of Boston, The Extinction of Miami, The Extinction of Manzanillo, The Extinction of Houston, The Extinction of Providence, The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands, Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3, 4, The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First, Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion).
(On The Origin of the Sea-level Seesaw). I have even waxed specific about some other types of expected future damage:
Big winds and waves have hit Greenland recently (Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 36-72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole).

The high waves and strong winds brought by these anomalous storms can weaken the ice shelves which hold back the ice sheet's hundreds of kilometers long ice streams (Watch The Ice Shelves, 2).

Another storm is slated to impact Greenland again for the second time in a short while (Hurricane Alex).

This increases sea level change (SLC) which endangers the world's seaports.
(The Evolution of Models - 19). Some of the scientists who focus on Greenland were evidently thinking the same way.

Because, they observed exactly that projected event when they took a look at its impact on Greenland ice sheets, and especially damage to Greenland ice shelves:
“But what I am getting at is that in general the temperature anomalies over the region of Jakobshavn have been high in the last few days, and I spotted weird temperatures off the coast ...

It is evident from the PROMICE weather records on the ice sheet just south of the Disko Bay region that temperatures have been exceptionally high since January 5th and atmospheric pressures have been high since January 9th ... changes are in the sea ice fronts and ice in the coastal inlets ... an area of sea ice across the fjord in front of Jakobshavn Glacier on January 9, that disappears by January 13 ... a plume is sweeping ... the sea ice in the fjord disappears by January 13th and the ice front is pushed back in a concave fashion ... a clear push of water driving sea ice offshore ... Ilulissat Fjord mouth lack of ice is also evident ... a significant flushing of icebergs ... icebergs scattered through the plume, indicate more clearly the plume is a water source change event, even if wind driven. The iceberg plume in the fjord has a brighter aspect due to the varied surface aspect-reflectance and has expanded down fjord.  The event must be due to or enhanced by strong offshore winds ... the ice melange in front of Jakobshavn has been largely removed.

In Uummannaq Bay a very similar sequence plays out ... the sea ice connecting islands ... is gone ... we have a clear push of water leading to a concave sea ice front that is pushed well offshore ... there is a plume leading to the concave sea ice front ... Moon et al (2015) indicate the importance of a rigid ice melange at the front of tidewater outlet glaciers in Greenland.  In this case the ice melange in front of Jakobshavn has been removed, and probably from in front of other glaciers ...
(What is Up in Greenland, January 2016). This is further evidence that the ice shelves were in fact damaged by the storms' warm winds and waves.

It is an indication of the emergence of an acceleration factor for accelerating damage to the ice streams (Watch The Ice Shelves, 2).

The next domino that falls, in this cause and effect sequence, is the freeing of gravity-held waters along the coast of Greenland, and the subsequent relocation of that seawater to other parts of the globe (causing both sea level rise and sea level fall).

In two recent posts from a Dredd Blog series I have calculated the major impact which that damaging sequence can have (see e.g. The Gravity of Sea Level Change - 4).

We are seeing more and more evidence that the Hansen (2015) inspired model of future SLR is looking more accurate than the IPCC model (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion, 2, 3).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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